Step 1: The College Football Playoff committee releases its first rankings of the season, and we overreact about what it means and who's getting propped up or held down. We start theorizing about how the rankings will shake down if or when most of the top teams win out.
Step 2: College football reminds us that very, very few teams actually win out.
Week 10 of the 2021 season gave us only one matchup of ranked teams and no slam-dunk headliner game. But Saturday became a survive-and-advance fireworks show all the same. No. 3 Michigan State, No. 9 Wake Forest, No. 12 Baylor and No. 13 Auburn all lost; No. 2 Alabama and No. 6 Cincinnati thought hard about doing the same; and No. 4 Oregon and No. 5 Ohio State looked frequently questionable while eventually winning by 10 and nine points respectively.
Only one team saw its playoff odds genuinely falter on Saturday: Michigan State, which went from a 16% chance of reaching the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, to 2%. But Week 10 was a reminder that we're all walking on pretty shaky ground here.
Ten teams currently have playoff odds of at least 2%, per the Predictor: Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Michigan State. Including conference championship games, however, only one currently has a greater than 50% chance of winning out, and even top-ranked Georgia is at only 53%.
There could be plenty of slip-ups on the way over the next four weeks. So in anticipation of future chaos, let's count down the games, players, matchups and potentially fatal flaws that will have the largest impact on the national title race moving forward.
25. Purdue
The Boilermakers barely beat Illinois, lost at Minnesota ... and knocked out two top-five teams by double digits -- winning 24-7 over No. 2 Iowa in Iowa City on Oct. 16, then 40-29 over No. 3 Michigan State at home last Saturday. Receiver David Bell has averaged seven catches for 74 yards in games against non-top-five opponents ... and 11 for 229 in Purdue's two big wins.
The Boilermakers get a shot at a third monumental win when they play at Ohio State on Saturday. This would be by far their least likely upset yet (SP+ gives Ohio State a 92% win probability), but they had to make this list, if only as a nod to what they've already accomplished.
24. Oklahoma State vs. the next two weeks
23. Spencer Sanders
Oklahoma State's bruising 24-3 win at West Virginia on Saturday showed that, for all the Cowboys' offensive deficiencies -- they're 68th in offensive SP+, easily the lowest among primary contenders -- they know exactly how they are going to go about winning games. They're going to play things as safely as possible on offense, feast with an aggressive defense, tilt the field and wait. A Big Ten West style in the Big 12.
OSU created an enormous field-position advantage against West Virginia, scored touchdowns on drives averaging just 41.3 yards, had eight QB sacks and cruised. The Cowboys are 10th in defensive SP+, and they push opposing offenses backward as well as anyone.
At some point, however, there will come a time when quarterback Spencer Sanders & Co. have to bail out their defensive counterparts. When the Cowboys fell behind Iowa State 24-21 late in their lone loss, nine Sanders pass attempts netted just 26 yards, including two sacks. They have played maybe their two most complete games in the past two weeks, but SP+ still gives them only a 48% chance of getting past both nothing-to-lose underdogs TCU and Texas Tech in the next two games.
22. Georgia Tech
Only three teams get multiple shots at contenders down the stretch; Tech is one of them. It would take a mammoth upset for the Yellow Jackets to take down either Notre Dame (Nov. 20) or Georgia (Nov. 27), but SP+ gives them a 21% chance of winning one or the other. Unlikely, but not impossible!
They do fit a strong underdog profile: They create more chunk plays, negative plays and turnover opportunities than their opponent. They make games volatile and uncertain -- they nearly beat Clemson while scoring eight points and walloped North Carolina while scoring 45. If either Notre Dame or UGA is unfocused, the Ramblin' Wreck could make things weird.
21. The strangely average Oregon pass rush
Oregon defensive end (and future top draft pick) Kayvon Thibodeaux has a pressure rate of 21% this season, the highest among any defender with at least 100 pass rush attempts. Three teammates have recorded at least 2.5 sacks as well. It seems like this should be a well-rounded and scary pass rush.
The numbers don't back this up. Oregon ranks 103rd in sacks per dropback (4.6%) and 50th in pressure rate (29.0%). Consequently, the Ducks rank 71st in passing success rate allowed and 30th in defensive SP+. They gave up a combined 60 points to lackluster-at-best Stanford and Colorado offenses. They dominated Washington's offense on Saturday, but each of their remaining opponents has an offense far more dangerous than the Huskies'.
20. Maryland
Like Georgia Tech, Maryland gets a shot at multiple contenders: at Michigan State (Nov. 13) and Michigan (Nov. 20). The Terrapins are 0-4 with an average loss of 46-15 against teams in the SP+ top 20 and 5-0 with an average win of 37-18 against everyone else. That obviously doesn't bode well against either the Spartans or Wolverines. But they'll still have to account for a quick and efficient Maryland passing game and a dangerous pass rush, and SP+ gives the Terps a 48% chance of pulling at least one upset in the next two weeks.
19. Oklahoma at Baylor (Nov. 13)
18. Iowa State at Oklahoma (Nov. 20)
Lincoln Riley's Sooners ranked just eighth in the initial CFP rankings last week, beset by both a lack of marquee wins and a number of late escapes. They've won five games by just one score, and while things appear to have improved since Caleb Williams took over as starting quarterback, in between blowouts of TCU and Texas Tech was a near disaster at Kansas.
To the extent that schedule strength is holding them back, it won't for much longer. Each of their final three regular-season opponents -- Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State -- could be ranked in the next CFP release, and if OU continues to win, its ranking will rise quickly.
Of course, another way to say "their schedule strength is about to improve" is, "their schedule is about to get much harder." The Sooners have made a habit of peaking in November, and they'll be favored in each remaining game. But SP+ isn't programmed for "they usually improve late" and gives them only a 33% chance of getting past Baylor and ISU and reaching Bedlam unbeaten. If the Sooners don't find their November form immediately, they won't be a CFP contender for much longer.
17. Oklahoma's secondary
The Sooners' offense has been mostly awesome since Williams took over -- it was far from terrible with Spencer Rattler, too -- but the No. 55 defense, per SP+, has held them back. Injuries in the secondary have been particularly costly, and in their past five games they've allowed a 68% completion rate, 14.3 yards per completion and 19 touchdowns. They did pick off two passes in their previous game, and it appears the secondary should be mostly intact moving forward. That alone could change OU's trajectory significantly.
16. Kyren Williams
15. Notre Dame at Virginia (Nov. 13)
A month ago, it was easy to worry about the Notre Dame offense. The quarterback position was uncertain, and poor line play was rendering the run game ineffective despite star back Kyren Williams. The defense was rounding into form, but the Irish were 41st in offensive SP+.
In four games since a loss to Cincinnati, things have clicked. Jack Coan is taking most of the snaps at QB, the line has settled in and Williams has ignited. In the past four games, he has averaged 159 rushing and receiving yards per game (6.2 yards per touch) with seven touchdowns. The Irish's offense has ignited right along with him, averaging 35 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. Running back Logan Diggs and receivers Lorenzo Styles and Deion Colzie, all freshmen, are playing larger roles, too, and the Irish have quickly bounced back to 23rd in offensive SP+.
Saturday's game at Virginia represents a potential land mine, however. The Irish probably have too much firepower for the Cavaliers, but UVa boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country and could suck Notre Dame into a shootout -- its past two games have racked up 88 and 115 combined points. Survive that, and an 11-1 Irish finish becomes awfully likely.
14. Cincinnati's offensive line
13. The AAC championship game
With Michigan State losing, there's a chance that Cincinnati moves to fifth in this week's CFP rankings. Of course, there's also a chance that Michigan hops the Bearcats into fifth, either because the CFP committee stopped watching Cincinnati games a month ago or because the committee actually did watch on Saturday and came away unimpressed with Cincy's 28-20 win over Tulsa. Granted, Tulsa gave Oklahoma State and Ohio State fits as well, but for at least the second time in three weeks, the Bearcats failed to finish a game like a genuine contender.
Line play appears to be an issue at the moment. Tulsa backs Shamari Brooks and Anthony Watkins rushed 40 times for 237 yards on Saturday, and while we'll cut the Cincy defense some slack based on the "it has to happen twice before it's a problem" rule, the offense is becoming increasingly one-dimensional. After averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 201 rushing yards per game in their first six outings, the Bearcats have averaged 3.6 and 112 since. Quarterback Desmond Ridder is being asked to carry too much of the load. That could backfire, especially against an aggressive Houston defense in the AAC championship game. The Cougars rank seventh in rushing success rate allowed and fifth in sack rate.
12. Penn State
Maryland and Georgia Tech indeed both get two shots at upsetting a contender. For Penn State, winning wouldn't be much of an upset. SP+ ranks the Nittany Lions 11th and gives them a 74% chance of going at least 1-1 against Michigan at home this Saturday and at Michigan State on Nov. 27.
It's not hard to see why. PSU has played like a top-10 team when quarterback Sean Clifford has been healthy. His injury contributed to two losses, but while the Nittany Lions aren't title contenders, they will have a role to play in whether Michigan and Michigan State remain so.
11. The Big Ten championship game
The Big Ten East's remaining contenders could cannibalize themselves in the coming weeks, but even if someone gets to Indianapolis at 11-1, it could face a smoking-hot Wisconsin team. The Badgers moved to the top of the West's pecking order thanks to their romp over Rutgers and Minnesota's loss to Illinois. FPI ranks them ninth and gives them a 62% chance of winning the West, while SP+ ranks them an aggressive fourth. In a hypothetical Big Ten championship game, SP+ would give them a 32% chance against Ohio State, a 50% chance in a rematch against Michigan and a 67% chance against Michigan State. Major land mine potential.
10. The art of finishing drives
Of the primary contenders, only Cincinnati and Oklahoma State rank in the top 50 in red zone touchdown rate on both offense and defense. On offense, Notre Dame ranks 72nd, Georgia 83rd and Michigan 88th. On defense, Oklahoma ranks 82nd, Oregon 85th and Ohio State 108th.
Red zone failures were a major issue for both Alabama and Michigan in recent losses, and this is one of the few potential weak spots in Georgia's armor. As the games take on more and more importance, teams that settle for field goals will struggle to win out.
9. The Iron Bowl (Nov. 27)
8. Alabama's offensive line
By the way, Auburn ranks 15th in red zone touchdown rate allowed, in case you're looking for a potential obstacle Alabama might face when it travels to the Plains in a few weeks.
While Bama does still have to get past a salty Arkansas team in a couple of weeks, the Tide's biggest chance for a loss before the SEC championship game will come during rivalry week. They've lost three of their past four games at Auburn, and SP+ says there's a 24% chance it becomes four of five. Auburn's Bo Nix remains one of the most enigmatic quarterbacks in the country, but he has beaten Bama before, and if the Tide's narrow win over LSU on Saturday told us anything, it's that this team isn't invulnerable.
As with Cincinnati, Bama's biggest issue on Saturday came in the trenches. LSU came into the game ranked 109th in rushing success rate allowed, but featured back Brian Robinson Jr. netted just 18 yards in 13 carries, and Bama was rendered almost completely one-dimensional. LSU also sacked quarterback Bryce Young four times, killing drives each time. Auburn's track record up front is much stronger than LSU's, so if Alabama can't solve its issues up front, they could cause problems again.
7. Oregon at Utah (Nov. 20)
Oregon has no remaining games against teams currently ranked by the CFP committee. Considering the Ducks' slate and lofty ranking, it seems they should be home free. They aren't. FPI gives them only a 12% chance of winning out, SP+ 15%. The Ducks have to get past prolific Washington State and Oregon State teams, and they'll also probably have to beat a hot Utah team twice. The Utes have won five of their past six, all by double digits, and have nearly clinched the Pac-12 South; they rank ahead of Oregon in FPI (15th vs. 22nd) and are only narrowly behind in SP+ (Oregon is 15th, Utah 21st).
These are coin-flip games, and Oregon might have to go 2-for-2 in them.
6. Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 20)
5. Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 27)
The Big Ten East boasts three of the 10 primary contenders, and while Michigan State knocked off Michigan at home in Week 9, we've still got two legs of this round-robin to go. Michigan State heads to Columbus in two weeks, and a week later Ohio State rolls up to Ann Arbor, where it has won its past four games and seven of its past eight.
SP+ has put its faith in Ohio State for a few weeks now and sees the Buckeyes as favorites in both games: 85% win probability against Michigan State, 63% against Michigan. But that means there's only a 54% chance that they win both games. They're East favorites for a reason, but they've got work to do. And if you watched their frustrating 26-17 win over Nebraska on Saturday, you saw plenty of vulnerabilities.
4. C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud has enjoyed a phenomenal first season as Ohio State's starting QB. He has completed 67% of his passes, averaged 9.2 yards per dropback and produced a 25-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio and a 87.9 Total QBR, best in the FBS.
Since the season-opening win over Minnesota, however, Stroud has faced three defenses ranked in the defensive SP+ top 30. He hasn't exactly struggled, but he hasn't dominated either.
• Stroud's past 3 games vs. top-30 defenses: 65% completion rate, 12.8 yards per completion, 145.8 passer rating, 29.0 points per game
• Stroud versus everyone else: 69% completion rate, 16.5 yards per completion, 208.5 passer rating, 51.6 points per game
Including a potential matchup with Wisconsin in Indianapolis, OSU's next four opponents rank 28th, 16th, eighth and second in defensive SP+. The work is just beginning, and Stroud might need to produce more than he has of late.
3. Bedlam (Nov. 27 ... and Dec. 4?)
Depending on when Oklahoma and Texas end up officially leaving for the SEC, it's possible that the Sooners' Nov. 27 trip to Stillwater is their last as Oklahoma State's conference mate (and their last, period, for quite a while). That alone makes the stakes impossibly high. That they might be playing in a potential playoff elimination game raises the stakes even higher. Both teams have tough hurdles to clear between now and then, but it's hard not to think ahead to this one.
To make it all even stranger, the teams could play each other a week later, too: While Iowa State (28%) and Baylor (14%) each still have a fighting chance, FPI gives Oklahoma an 84% chance of reaching the Big 12 championship game, Oklahoma State 75%. Two Bedlam battles in eight days, each with national title stakes? Odd. And fantastic.
2. The SEC championship game
1. Stetson Bennett
There is a constant "Yeah, but ..." cloud following Georgia's starting quarterback everywhere he goes. Stetson Bennett has completed 67% of his passes at 11.1 yards per dropback this season. Among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, his 89.5 Total QBR ranks second to only that of Oklahoma's Caleb Williams (95.4). In the eight games in which Bennett has seen action, Georgia has gone unbeaten by an average score of 42-7. How on earth could you ask for more than that?
Yeah, but ... he hasn't exactly been asked to do much. He has yet to throw more than 21 passes in a game, and of his 120 passes, only 50 were thrown when UGA was up by less than 14 points. UGA builds early leads with defense and the run game, then Bennett puts the game away with play-action daggers. We know nothing about how he'll perform if Georgia is ever in a steadily close game.
And yeah, but ... we remember last year's Bama and Florida games. Against the two teams capable of putting up huge points on last year's Georgia defense, Bennett had to force the issue a bit, and it went horribly: He was a combined 23-for-56 with three touchdowns and four picks against the Tide and Gators.
Because Georgia has coasted through this season so minimally challenged, it still feels like we don't know everything we need to know about whether Bennett has really broken through this season. This feels like an unfair standard, but it might remain a question until the SEC championship game in Atlanta.
And hell, if Bama's offensive line isn't up to snuff, it could get destroyed by Georgia's front, at which point nothing else might matter. There might not be an offense as good as last year's Bama and Florida offenses this year, so for all we know Bennett will keep right on doing what he's doing, and the Dawgs will be just fine. But in theory, Atlanta might still tell us something.