The second College Football Playoff ranking might not be as fluid as it felt on Saturday night as multiple games featuring playoff contenders unfolded with is-this-really-happening fourth-quarter finishes.
No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Cincinnati all teetered on the brink of upsets against unranked, sub-.500 teams on Saturday, but only No. 3 Michigan State was upended, by Purdue, leaving a hole in the top four for the selection committee to fill Tuesday in its second of six rankings.
Because almost everyone else won ugly, though, it's possible there's not a huge shift or any major surprises. This could be very easy for the selection committee -- No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, and then bumping up Oregon to No. 3 after its road win at Washington, and promoting Ohio State to No. 4 following its road win at Nebraska.
Or, the committee might give Oregon a boost to No. 2 -- and drop Alabama as low as No. 4.
While both were far from flawless on Saturday, Oregon played a more complete game than Alabama, which had just 6 rushing yards against LSU -- lowest for the program in the Nick Saban era. It might also win a résumé comparison against the Tide right now. The Ducks' win against Ohio State is better than anything Alabama has on its résumé -- especially after back-to-back weeks in which Ole Miss and now Mississippi State lost.
The Tide's 31-29 win at Florida on Sept. 18 now raises more eyebrows than it does playoff stock, as the Gators dropped to 4-5 after an embarrassing loss at South Carolina. Plus, Alabama simply didn't play very well on Saturday against LSU -- a game that came down to a Hail Mary that was incomplete in the end zone. Alabama's 20 points against LSU was its fewest in a win since 2016 against ... LSU, when the Tide won 10-0.
"I know that sometimes we have an expectation that we're going to win easy, but sometimes it's not so easy," Saban said. "I think it's difficult to win in this conference. I think it's difficult to win, week in and week out. I think you've got to play your best. We probably didn't play our best in some areas of the team, and we've got to get more consistency in how we play."
With the exception of No. 1 Georgia, everyone has flaws, but somebody has to be in the top four -- and it's still probably not undefeated Cincinnati.
No. 5 Ohio State had a flat performance against a 3-7 Nebraska team on the same day that Cincinnati held off a pesky 3-6 Tulsa team. It's unlikely anything that happened Saturday will change the current pecking order. In fact, the committee might favor the fact that Ohio State won on the road, while the Bearcats were home.
Selection committee chair Gary Barta said on Tuesday the group has "tremendous respect" for Cincinnati, but beyond the win at Notre Dame, "look at who else they've beaten. Look at who else they've played."
A win against Tulsa is highly unlikely to change that perspective, especially when it was the third straight week that Cincinnati was unable to dominate a team under .500.
"For us, what's most important -- we said it last week -- is winning," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said. "We are not going to try to live up to what someone else expects us to do."
It helped Ohio State that Penn State avoided an embarrassing loss at Maryland, and Cincinnati's win at Notre Dame continues to help separate it from other contenders such as Oklahoma.
Previously undefeated Michigan State should sink below Cincinnati, but stay ahead of rival Michigan because of the head-to-head result and identical 8-1 records. This would show some consistency after the committee honored Oregon's head-to-head win over Ohio State in its initial ranking.
It's unofficially official: Stick a fork in the ACC
For the first time in the history of the CFP, the ACC will almost certainly be left out of the semifinals.
The ACC has played this entire season in the worst playoff position of any of the Power 5 conferences -- also trailing undefeated Cincinnati -- but previously undefeated Wake Forest at least gave the league a sliver of hope.
Now, following the Demon Deacons' 58-55 loss to North Carolina, that's gone too.
The ACC doesn't have any undefeated teams, and the winner of the Atlantic Division is guaranteed to face a Coastal Division opponent with at least two losses in the conference championship game. Wake Forest also has one of the worst defenses in the country, and Saturday's game was further evidence, as the Deacs allowed 546 total yards. They also had two turnovers and 11 penalties.
Wake Forest is still in a position to win its first ACC title since 2006 -- no small feat for the smallest school in the league -- but it's still a long way from the top four, and Tuesday's ranking will reflect that.