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Bowl projections and analysis: Fallout for Oregon, Cincinnati, other close calls?

Two Power 5 teams -- No. 3 Michigan State and No. 9 Wake Forest -- suffered their first loss of the season, several top-10 squads struggled but survived, and six teams further down the rankings went down to defeat.

What does it all mean to the bowl picture? Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura predict all the bowl matchups and provide analysis on the CFP picture, what teams helped or hurt their cause this weekend and the most intriguing matchups.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Oregon

Schlabach's most intriguing matchup: The Bulldogs and Ducks have played only once, with Georgia winning 27-17 at home at Sanford Stadium in September 1977. The game would feature the country's top NFL prospect on defense, Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Georgia's stingy D, which leads the FBS in allowing only 6.6 points per game. The Bulldogs and Ducks are scheduled to open the 2022 season in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State

Playoff breakdown

Schlabach: Outside of No. 1 Georgia, which blasted Missouri 43-6 at home, none of the CFP contenders looked particularly great on Saturday. Michigan State fell at unranked Purdue, 40-29. Cincinnati looked pretty average for the third straight week, needing a pair of goal-line stands late to beat Tulsa 28-20 at home. Alabama struggled to put away depleted LSU 20-14 at home, and Ohio State won 26-17 at Nebraska. Oregon trailed Washington early before pulling away for a 26-16 victory in Seattle.

The Bulldogs obviously stay at No. 1, and they might get a tougher-than-expected challenge at Tennessee on Saturday. I'm going with undefeated Oklahoma at No. 2. The Sooners were off this past weekend, and if they can survive a three-game stretch against Baylor (road), Iowa State (home) and Oklahoma State (road), then win the Big 12 championship game, it's going to be impossible to keep them out of the top four. I've got Ohio State at No. 3 and Oregon at No. 4. Cincinnati is my No. 5 team for now.

Bonagura: Using the initial College Football Playoff rankings as a guide, I'm still not convinced Alabama would fall out of the top four with a loss to Georgia (assuming it's close) -- and anyone who feels strongly about that, either way, is feigning confidence. There can be strong opinions about what someone thinks should happen, but anything beyond that isn't worth paying much attention to. That said, the Tide certainly didn't turn in a statement win against LSU, but no one in the playoff mix did this weekend.

For Oregon to reach the playoff, it will have to win out, and none of its remaining four games will be a gimme -- Washington State, Utah, Oregon State and then the Pac-12 title game. The Big Ten conundrum will sort itself out, but now that there aren't any undefeated teams, that leaves the door open for the conference to get left out. As Mark noted, Oklahoma's schedule will provide an opportunity for the Sooners to make their case down the stretch but -- even more so than Oregon -- the odds of them winning out (Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Big 12 title game) don't seem good.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Utah

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

Bonagura's most intriguing matchup: Give me Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl. After a slow start to the season, no one in the country has turned things around quite like Texas A&M. It will be a regular-season game soon enough, but to see these former Big 12 rivals renew their series in a big-time bowl game would carry some weight (even if it means Oklahoma will be disappointed by not reaching the playoff).


Team that helped its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: Texas A&M. The Aggies have emerged as perhaps the third-best team in the SEC, behind Georgia and Alabama, and their 20-3 victory against Auburn at home kept them in the hunt for a New Year's Six bowl game. The Aggies' defense was dominant, limiting the Tigers to 226 yards of offense and forcing two turnovers. The only touchdown in the game was defensive end Micheal Clemons' scoop-and-score from 24 yards. The Aggies will have to survive road games at Ole Miss on Saturday and at LSU on Nov. 27 to finish 10-2; they also play FCS program Prairie View on Nov. 20. If Texas A&M wins out, and Alabama loses once more in the regular season, the Aggies would represent the SEC West in the SEC championship game.

Bonagura: No one? There isn't a team in the top 10 that is viewed more favorably today than it was a week ago at this time. The best option is probably Georgia, which continues to create separation between itself and everyone else in the country. Georgia hasn't played a close game since opening week, while the rest of the playoff contenders have all given reasons to doubt their ability to find a chair when the music stops playing.


Team that hurt its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: Michigan State. The Spartans were on upset alert after last week's emotional victory against rival Michigan. Unfortunately for them, their fears were realized in a 40-29 loss at Purdue. Michigan State's defense was suspect during its 8-0 start, and that came home to roost against the "Spoilermakers." Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell threw for 536 yards, the fifth-most passing yards ever in a Big Ten game. The Spartans fell one game behind Ohio State in the Big Ten East standings with their first loss of the season. Michigan State hosts Maryland on Saturday, before closing the regular season with difficult games at Ohio State on Nov. 20 and at home against Penn State the following week.

Bonagura: Michigan State is the obvious choice. The Spartans aren't out of playoff contention by any measure, but their margin for error is razor thin after their undefeated season boiled away.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Kent State vs. Florida Atlantic

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kent State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Middle Tennessee vs. Alabama-Birmingham

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Charlotte vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. UTEP
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio
Schlabach: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: USC vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San Diego State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Alabama-Birmingham
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Charlotte vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Utah State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Houston
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Air Force

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Boston College

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. SMU

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Troy

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Memphis
Schlabach: LSU vs. Central Florida

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Jose State vs. Army
Schlabach: Houston vs. Liberty

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Texas vs. Mississippi State

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Washington


Team most disappointed with its landing spot

Bonagura: Washington. When taking 2020 out of the equation, the Huskies haven't missed a bowl game since 2009 -- Steve Sarkisian's first year after taking over following the 0-12 2008 season. That streak isn't over yet, as Washington could still reach eligibility with two wins over the final three weeks (Arizona State, Colorado, Washington State). But even if the Huskies sneak into a low-tier bowl, it will represent a massive step back for them in Year 2 under Jimmy Lake. It has been a brutal week for Lake, all of which has been self-inflicted, but we'll focus on just one of the bad moments. With Washington down 24-16 with 1:58 to go against Oregon on Saturday, the Huskies faced fourth-and-10 from their own 10. The odds weren't great, but it amounted to UW's final opportunity to score ... and Lake decided to punt. That's not a winning mentality.

Schlabach: Florida. The Gators lost a lot from last season's team, including quarterback Kyle Trask and star tight end Kyle Pitts. Still, Florida was ranked No. 13 in the preseason and was supposed to be the second-best team in the SEC East behind Georgia. But the Gators have dropped four of their last five games after Saturday night's humbling 40-17 loss at South Carolina. It was the Gators' worst defeat against the Gamecocks in school history. South Carolina quarterback Jason Brown, a transfer from St. Francis, threw for two touchdowns in his first FBS start, and Kevin Harris (128 yards) and ZaQuandre White (111) each ran for triple digits. Florida will have to win twice more to qualify for a bowl game, and that seems likely with games left against FCS program Samford, Missouri and Florida State. It might be too soon for Dan Mullen's job to be in jeopardy, but big changes are likely coming to his staff if he stays.


Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Texas
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. West Virginia

Dec. 29

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. SMU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Memphis

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Virginia

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. NC State
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Arizona State

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Miami
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. North Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Florida vs. Purdue

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Iowa vs. UCLA

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Auburn

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington State

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Army

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Florida
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Michigan

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas