We can typically count on two things in the days following the release of the year's first College Football Playoff rankings. First, we will yell a lot about it. (Check!) Then, we can watch at least one top team fall soon after -- in seven years with the CFP, 11 top-10 teams have fallen in the first weekend after the rankings come out.
Of course, many of those top teams lost to other top teams. Week 10 isn't really built for that this year. In fact, the rest of the 2021 season has a particularly odd flow. Weeks 10 and 12 each feature only one game pitting currently ranked teams against each other, while Weeks 11 and 13 are loaded with five each.
That doesn't mean the stakes for this weekend are low. Cincinnati takes center stage with visits from both a hard-to-figure Tulsa team and College GameDay, Oregon faces a big rival, Auburn-Texas A&M pits two confusing and chaotic rivals, and odds suggest we could see at least one upset of a top-10 Big Ten team. Let's dive into what awaits.
All times below are Eastern. All games on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Luke Fickell says he doesn't believe in style points. He should probably start.
Tulsa at No. 6 Cincinnati (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell was an assistant for Jim Tressel at Ohio State for a decade, and you can tell. The Tressel-ball influence is heavy in Fickell's Bearcats: play elite defense, take few risks, don't fear punts. An ugly 24-7 win counts just the same as 44-27.
For the most part, this is fine. Some people prefer high-flying luchadores, others prefer thunderous slaps and sumo wrestling. We all have different tastes. But if there's one thing we learned on Tuesday night, it's that the Bearcats might need a few more backflips off the top rope.
To be sure, winning every remaining game 60-0 might not draw the attention of the CFP committee. The unbeaten Bearcats ranked sixth this week, behind a Michigan State team that ranks below them in predictive ratings such as SP+ (they're 10th, the Spartans 14th) and FPI (seventh vs. 15th) and behind three one-loss teams. Only one of those three has a marquee win as good as Cincinnati's comfortable victory at No. 10 Notre Dame: Oregon, which also suffered an inexcusable loss to mediocre-at-best Stanford.
With enough chaos, maybe the Bearcats can still rise into the top four. I'll remain skeptical until it happens. The committee has shown it does not pay a lick of attention to any games that aren't against power conference teams, so as far as it's concerned, Cincinnati hasn't played a game since beating Notre Dame and doesn't have another one scheduled. The only chance the Bearcats might have is to make statement after statement. Time to blow some teams out, just in case.
Even if style points mattered, the Bearcats certainly didn't score any in their past couple of games. After winning their first six games by an average of 29.8 points, they beat Navy by just seven on Oct. 23, letting a 21-point lead fritter away and having to make one last stop in the final minute. They also took their sweet time pulling away from Tulane on Saturday, leading by two late in the third quarter before finishing off a 31-12 win. This only damaged the Bearcats' résumé so much -- they still rank fifth in my résumé SP+ ratings, ahead of Michigan State and well ahead of Oregon -- but it also earned some negative headlines.
As you might expect, offense was the bigger issue in these two games. Navy and Tulane combined to average just 4.0 yards per play against a Cincinnati defense that ranks ninth in defensive SP+. But the Bearcats' offense suffered prolonged versions of the droughts that have randomly slowed them all year. They scored just once and threw an interception in their first four drives against Navy, then went three-and-out twice late. Penalties slowed four of these five scoreless possessions.
Against Tulane, quarterback Desmond Ridder threw another interception and took three drive-killing sacks, one of which resulted in a safety. He was fine on scoring drives, but glitches and sloppiness kept the game close. And these were against teams that ranked 82nd (Navy) and 116th (Tulane) in defensive SP+. Saturday's opponent, Tulsa, ranks 66th.
Tulsa has had an odd year. The Golden Hurricane nearly beat No. 11 Oklahoma State and scared No. 5 Ohio State for 56 minutes in Columbus -- the Buckeyes led by only seven until two late TDs made it 41-20. But they've also lost to UC Davis and Navy and beat low-ranked Arkansas State and South Florida squads by a combined eight points. They're dreadful in the red zone on both sides of the ball, and their defense allows some big plays, but they also attack you with vigor: They're 15th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 23rd in pressure rate. If you are capable of glitches, Tulsa can force them out of you.
Beating the Golden Hurricane by more than Ohio State did would certainly give Bearcat proponents another talking point, but if Cincinnati's offense doesn't find its polish again, the Bearcats will find themselves in another close game. Not that the committee will notice either way.
Big Ten upset alert?
No. 5 Ohio State at Nebraska (noon, Fox)
No. 3 Michigan State at Purdue (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Indiana at No. 7 Michigan (7:30 p.m., Fox)
This is a dangerous week for the Big Ten's current heavyweights, even if it doesn't initially seem like it. Michigan State and Ohio State both take to the road against unranked foes a week after big wins, and while both are favored, either could slip up if they lose focus. SP+ gives MSU a 63% chance of beating Purdue, and Ohio State is at 79% against Nebraska. Throw in Michigan's 85% chance at home against Indiana, and that means SP+ is forecasting only a 42% chance of all three teams winning.
Ohio State has a history of post-Penn State hangovers, most notably a blowout loss at Iowa in 2017, but both of the win probabilities above, and general circumstance, suggest Sparty is the most vulnerable.
Though both Nebraska and Indiana have shown some fight this season -- the Huskers have lost to three top-10 teams (Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan) by a touchdown or less, and Indiana almost took down Michigan State -- the cumulative effect of losing might be adding up. Nebraska has lost five of six, Indiana four in a row.
Purdue, on the other hand, is on a better path. The Boilermakers knocked Iowa from the ranks of the unbeaten on Oct. 16, pummeling them 24-7 at home. They couldn't withstand a deluge of turnovers against Wisconsin, but they beat Nebraska in Lincoln last Saturday. After back-to-back losing seasons, Purdue is 5-3 with a good chance at 7-5 or better.
The matchups aren't incredibly favorable for the Boilermakers, however. Purdue plays efficient defense and knocks opponents behind the chains but gives up quite a few big plays in return, while Michigan State's offensive output is almost entirely big-play driven. On offense, Purdue's Aidan O'Connell passes the ball efficiently, but big plays are almost nonexistent and the red zone offense often falters. MSU will give you yards between the 30s but prevents chunk plays and stops you in the red zone.
Still, both teams are inclined to keep games close -- three of Purdue's five Big Ten games have been determined by one score, as have three of Michigan State's. It won't take too many breaks for Purdue to knock off its second unbeaten, top-three conference foe of the season. And if it doesn't, there's still a chance an upset occurs elsewhere.
Time for Oregon to actually look like a top-four team again
No. 4 Oregon at Washington (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Oregon ranking fourth in the CFP rankings, one spot ahead of Ohio State, was a victory for those who feel head-to-head matchups should be the be-all and end-all No. 1 playoff criterion. I'm not one of those people -- I have always thought that our sample size in this sport is already too small to give a single game most of our focus -- but there's certainly logic to the idea.
One problem: Oregon is now a top-four team despite having played like anything but that since that Week 2 win at Ohio State.
The Ducks rank 23rd in SP+ and 20th in FPI. For predictive ratings, dominance builds trust, and Oregon hasn't done much dominating. It needed a score in the final three minutes to beat Fresno State. It led winless Arizona by just five heading into the fourth quarter. It gifted maybe the worst Stanford team in 15 years an early 10-point lead and lost to the Cardinal in overtime. It trailed Cal early in the fourth quarter and needed a last-second goal-line stop to win. It needed a final-minute interception to beat UCLA after leading by 17. And even when it dominated a bad Colorado team, it gave up two late scores to briefly allow the Buffaloes within 14 points.
Granted, the building of big leads has been a positive trend over these past two weeks. But SP+ projects Oregon as only a 5.7-point favorite over disappointing Washington this weekend in Seattle, and the sportsbooks give it only about a seven-point edge. SP+ also projects the Ducks as an underdog at Utah in two weeks. To get to 12-1, they will need to find fifth gear and stay there.
The matchups do seem to favor Oregon on Saturday evening, and not just because of the needless "The schools that we go against [in recruiting], have academic prowess, like the University of Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford, USC [and not Oregon]" bulletin board material Washington coach Jimmy Lake provided earlier this week. Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead has crafted a dynamic run game around the talents of running back Travis Dye (who has thrived in the absence of the injured CJ Verdell) and quarterback Anthony Brown. The Ducks don't produce many explosions in the passing game, but Brown is accurate on short, quick run-pass option throws.
Washington, meanwhile, has one of the best pass defenses in the country but can't force anyone to pass because of deficiencies up front that Oregon will likely exploit. For the Huskies to pull an upset, they will have to hog the ball with their own big-play-deficient offense, control the field and dominate in the red zone. It's not impossible -- and Oregon has shown that it can let foes back in the game even if it seizes an advantage -- but the Ducks have the overall edge.
Coach Mario Cristobal's team has gotten by at this point, and the head-to-head clause has given the Ducks a lofty rating. But now it's time to look the part again.
The battle for SEC West vice champion
No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., CBS)
If we didn't know better, we could say that we've got a donnybrook for an SEC West race. Two teams have one loss (4-1 Alabama, 3-1 Auburn), and three more are at 3-2 (Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M). If this were a division with ACC Coastal-level parity, we'd be in for some chaos.
We know better, of course. Alabama remains a massive favorite; the Crimson Tide have an 83% chance of winning their division, per ESPN's Football Power Index. Assuming they navigate past LSU and Arkansas at home -- and they're heavily favored to do so -- the division could be decided by their Iron Bowl trip to Auburn on Nov. 27, if it hasn't been already.
Auburn has to win out between now and then to stay in the hunt. And while A&M has the tiebreaker over Alabama thanks to its 41-38 victory over the Tide, the Aggies can't afford to drop another game either. That makes Saturday's battle in College Station an elimination game.
A&M has the better defense. The Aggies are seventh in defensive SP+, combining disruptive run defense with excellent pass coverage. They punish aggressiveness and force you to settle for short gains, and if you manage to dink and dunk your way down the field, they force field goals in the red zone.
Auburn has the quarterback edge, however. I think. Bo Nix's passer rating was under 100 in both of the Tigers' losses this season, and he was just 13-of-27 in an unimpressive win over Georgia State. But he was dynamite in the past two games, key wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss, completing 43 of 56 passes for 568 yards, three TDs and only one pick. In the absence of a go-to star receiver, he made use of the Tigers' depth, completing passes to 13 different players in these two games.
Nix is a natural-born wheeler-dealer; his instinct has long been to scramble around and try to make plays. That could lead to trouble against a defense that punishes aggression. Still, he's the more trustworthy of the two starting quarterbacks -- he's at least been good twice.
Zach Calzada's season as emergency A&M starter has been mystifying. He took over for the injured Haynes King in the second game of the year, and his only excellent performance ... was against the No. 2 team in the land.
• Calzada's first four games: 54% completion rate, 10.8 yards per completion, 4% TD rate, 3% INT rate, 110.2 passer rating
• Calzada vs. Alabama: 68% completion rate, 13.6 yards per completion, 10% TD rate, 3% INT rate, 170.5 passer rating
• Calzada's past two games: 51% completion rate, 13.4 yards per completion, 8% TD rate, 4% INT rate, 127.2 passer rating
That makes no sense.
Calzada will need to come up big against an Auburn defense that is excellent against the run but allows a 66% completion rate (112th in FBS) and a 45% passing success rate (106th). Calzada will have a chance to make some plays. Can he come through again?
Week 10 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. You also should feel free to check in on Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (noon, ESPN) for a while, but when that fails to remain a game for all that long, there are plenty of other, more exciting options on the docket.
Friday evening
Utah at Stanford (10:30 p.m., FS1). Utah is a heavy favorite to win the Pac-12 South at this point. The Utes' efficient offense should be too much for Stanford, but the Cardinal slow games to a crawl and keep them closer than they should be.
Early Saturday
Air Force vs. Army (11:30 a.m., CBS). One of the sport's most underrated rivalries kicks off extra early on Saturday, and the winner becomes the de facto Commander in Chief's Trophy favorite.
No. 9 Wake Forest at North Carolina (noon, ABC). Wake hasn't blown the CFP committee away so far, but all the Demon Deacons can do is keep winning. This "nonconference" battle with UNC has massive points potential.
Liberty at No. 16 Ole Miss (noon, SECN). Hugh Freeze vs. his old employer? Matt Corral vs. Malik Willis? Impossibly entertaining.
Saturday afternoon
No. 11 Oklahoma State at West Virginia (3:30 p.m., ESPN). The Cowboys still have a CFP shot if a lot of things go right, but they have to survive Morgantown first. Iowa State couldn't.
No. 17 Mississippi State at Arkansas (4 p.m., SECN). Mike Leach's takes on Halloween candy went viral last week, but it almost feels like his Bulldogs are flying under the radar. They've won three of four but face back-to-back trips to Arkansas and Auburn.
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Stadium). WKU has plowed through three straight C-USA opponents to rise to favorite status in the East division, but MTSU has won its past two games by a combined 79-23.
Saturday evening
LSU at No. 2 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN). The CFP committee ranking the Tide second gave them a huge gift -- it's clear to see they have a shot at reaching the playoff even with a loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. But they still have to handle their business until Atlanta.
Boise State at No. 23 Fresno State (7 p.m., CBSSN). Fresno State's win over San Diego State gave the Bulldogs the edge in the MWC West, but a loss to Boise State would dampen their odds, and the Broncos are coming off of an excellent performance at Colorado State.
Saturday night
Texas-San Antonio at UTEP (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). UTSA has a point to prove after getting snubbed out of a top-25 ranking by the CFP committee, but the Roadrunners could have their hands full against a super-stingy UTEP defense.
Small-school smorgasbord
Actually, let's keep this playlist going! The playoffs are approaching at the lower levels, and there are a lot of big games to track, even if just on your laptop.
FCS: No. 16 Princeton at Dartmouth (Friday, 6 p.m., ESPNU). Princeton leads a high-quality Ivy League and hasn't lost since 2019, but Dartmouth is awesome on defense and only a game back.
FCS: St. Thomas at Davidson (1 p.m., DavidsonWildcats.com). With a win over Davidson, St. Thomas could be tied for first in the Pioneer Conference in its first year after making a huge jump up from Division III. That would be like D2's Grand Valley State jumping up and immediately challenging in the MAC.
D3: No. 12 UW-La Crosse at No. 3 UW-Whitewater (2 p.m., UWWsports.com). UWW rarely gets challenged in the regular season, but UWL is 7-1 with its lone loss to the aforementioned highly ranked D2 Grand Valley State.
FCS: No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 12 South Dakota State (3 p.m., ESPN+). Remember how NDSU's offense fell apart in the spring and the Bison lost in the FCS quarterfinals? Well, they're unbeaten again and an easy No. 1 in my FCS SP+ rankings. Can the Jackrabbits slow their momentum?
FCS: No. 6 Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word (3 p.m., ESPN3). SELA nearly beat Louisiana Tech in September and has nearly moved into the top five in the polls. UIW can score at will, though.
FCS: No. 4 Montana State at No. 5 Eastern Washington (4 p.m., ESPN+). The headliner of the week. Montana State has a killer defense and lost only to Wyoming, and EWU is 7-1 and averaging 51.5 points per game behind quarterback Eric Barriere.