GRAPEVINE, Texas -- The College Football Playoff selection committee revealed its first of six rankings on Tuesday evening and delivered disappointment to Cincinnati fans hoping to see their Bearcats make history as the first Group of 5 team to crack the top four. Instead, the Bearcats are ranked No. 6, while the SEC and Big Ten dominated, with No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama leading the way, followed by three Big Ten teams in the top seven.
While it's only the beginning of the pecking order, Tuesday's rankings revealed a lot about what direction this year's playoff race is headed:
No. 6 is a hole Cincinnati might never climb out of. The No. 6 position doesn't bode well for the Bearcats, because their strength of schedule -- which is currently No. 100 in the country -- is only going to get worse. The committee didn't rank one-loss SMU, so as of right now, No. 10 Notre Dame is the only ranked opponent on the Bearcats' regular-season schedule. Even teams ranked behind Cincinnati -- including No. 7 Michigan and No. 8 Oklahoma -- have more opportunities to impress the selection committee this month and move up in the rankings.
According to ESPN's Strength of Record metric, even if Cincinnati finishes 13-0, its résumé would be worse than any playoff participant's in the first six years of the playoff (excluding the shortened 2020 season). The average Top-25 team would have a 26% chance to go 13-0 against the Bearcats' schedule; there are nine FBS teams that would have a better résumé -- even with one loss. Cincinnati's placement this week might light a fire under the CFP's management committee, though, which is scheduled to discuss the 12-team playoff model here on Wednesday and Thursday. The Bearcats could use it now.
The Pac-12 is alive and well, and head-to-head still matters. Oregon's win at No. 5 Ohio State is the best nonconference win in the country, and the committee rewarded the Ducks for it -- big time. The No. 4 spot might be the most surprising part of the ranking, if only because the Ducks haven't been dominant as of late. The selection committee knows, though, that offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead wasn't at the Stanford loss because of health reasons, and the Ducks have been decimated by injuries but still finding ways to win. The question is if they can keep it up, because a two-loss Pac-12 champ likely isn't going to make the cut. ESPN's FPI favors the Ducks in each of its remaining regular-season games except Nov. 20 at Utah (45% chance to win). If Oregon can run the table and finish as one-loss conference champions -- and Ohio State does the same -- Tuesday night's ranking lends credence to the possibility that they both finish in the top four.
Oklahoma's playoff path is clear in spite of its slow start. The selection committee didn't rank Texas, so Oklahoma currently doesn't have any wins against CFP top 25 teams. That can change quickly, as No. 11 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Baylor are two of OU's final three opponents this month. Both are also road games, so a backloaded schedule could change the Big 12's position quickly. If the Sooners finish as undefeated conference champions, it's hard to imagine they'd place behind one-loss Oregon. Even as one-loss conference champions, it would make for a great debate -- and based on the first ranking, it would probably still trump an undefeated Cincinnati.
Could a two-loss Alabama still sneak in? It's clear the committee likes the Tide in spite of its loss to Texas A&M. The committee ranked the Aggies No. 14, so as of now that loss doesn't appear to be as bad as it was at the time. Alabama can also boost its resume with a regular-season win against rival No. 13 Auburn. What if Alabama loses to Georgia in a thriller in the SEC championship game? It would be hard to justify, but based on the first ranking, it shouldn't be discounted entirely.
Could an undefeated ACC champ really be left out? Yes, just like an undefeated AAC champ could be. Yes, Wake Forest is enjoying an 8-0 run, but its strength of schedule is currently No. 98. The Deacs haven't defeated a ranked opponent, and only two Power 5 opponents (6-4 Virginia and 5-4 Syracuse) are over .500. ESPN's FPI gives Wake Forest less than a 50% chance to win each of its next three games, against UNC, NC State and Clemson. If Wake Forest can run the table, it's possible the Deacs pick up ranked wins against No. 19 NC State and possible No. 25 Pitt in the ACC championship game, but eye test also matters, and they're No. 74 in defensive efficiency.