Just like we thought when the season began.
As the leaves start to change color, Clemson is out of the College Football Playoff picture. Nick Saban and Alabama lost to an unranked team for the first time in 101 games (a 41-38 defeat to Texas A&M), and a Group of 5 team (Cincinnati) just might get into the playoff, something that once seemed highly unlikely in a four-team format.
And, oh yeah, the Heisman Trophy favorite when the season began (Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler) is now coming off the bench for the Sooners.
The unpredictability of college football never fails to disappoint.
We reached out to coaches across the country, both head coaches and assistants, to pick their brains about these topics and more in our latest Coaches Confidential.
Spencer Rattler, the transfer portal and the future of the QB position
Most coaches we talked with said the shuffling of quarterbacks between different rosters over the next few years will make NFL free agency look tame.
"Within two years, maybe a year, I would say close to 50% of every quarterback that signs with a school will finish his career at another school," one head coach said. "You're not going to be able to keep two quality quarterbacks no matter how hard you try. And as soon as the younger guy beats out the incumbent, the other guy is gone. That's just where we are right now.
"Free agency is here to stay in college football, certainly at that position."
Behind the scenes, schools are already lining up to get Rattler, who has been supplanted by freshman Caleb Williams as the Sooners' starter. Rattler, a redshirt sophomore, would technically have at least two years of eligibility remaining.
"He fits right in with what Lane Kiffin does on offense, and there's going to be a spot [at Ole Miss] because Matt Corral is gone after this season to the NFL," one assistant coach said. "And if Kiffin gets another head job somewhere, I could see Rattler following him to that school."
One defensive coordinator warned that at some point there are going to be so many quarterbacks on the move that there's not going to be any spots for them at Power 5 schools.
"I think, overall, the portal is going to blow up this year," the coordinator said. "It's a magical place in the eyes of quarterbacks especially, almost like it's a real place."
Another head coach added that some teams in desperate need of a quarterback will be willing to roll the dice.
"Everybody thinks they're going to get Joe Burrow," the coach said. "Don't get me wrong. There will be some quarterbacks that transfer that will make a big difference. But for every Burrow you get, there are going to be four or five that are marginal players at best."
Who's the best player in college football?
Predicting that a player other than a quarterback, running back or receiver is going to win the Heisman Trophy is probably a stretch, but if coaches were voting this season, it might be a defensive standout or even a lineman.
If a quarterback does win the Heisman this season -- and 12 of the last 15 players to win the award were signal callers -- one assistant coach said he would take Corral in a photo finish over Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.
"The thing about Corral is that when you see him up close, he's not that big, really pretty wiry," the coach said. "But he has everything else, and his toughness and competitiveness are off the charts good. You combine that with his release and ability to throw the ball down the field, and he's been something else. He's the hardest player in the country to defend because he's a lot faster than you think he is and can also beat you running the ball."
Pickett, who has led Pitt to the top of the ACC's Coastal Division, became the third ACC quarterback in the last 15 years to throw multiple touchdown passes in seven consecutive games in Saturday's win over Clemson. A fifth-year senior, Pickett has started at least one game in five straight seasons.
"You watch [Pickett] play, and he's always giving Pitt a chance to score, to move the chains, to win it in the fourth quarter whether he's throwing from the pocket, scrambling and having the patience to keep his eyes downfield or knowing when to put his head down and run," another coach said. "The thing that really sets him apart is his experience. He's played so much football and has seen everything."
Maybe it's because he's only a redshirt freshman, but Alabama's Bryce Young probably hasn't gotten the credit he deserves, according to one assistant coach. Young has thrown 26 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.
"He makes it look easy and never seems to panic," the coach said. "The other thing he's doing is becoming more aware of when it's the right time to run. But he's such an accurate passer that you have to stay on your guys. He gets better every week."
One offensive coordinator said the player he's seen who disrupts the game more than anybody else is Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis.
"You can't move him, and he closes down everything you try to do in the inside run game and is powerful enough to push the pocket into the quarterback's face," the coordinator said. "But what really makes him one of a kind is his ability to make plays down the line of scrimmage and even in space.
"Is he the best player? I guess that depends on how you look at it, but I haven't seen a more dominant player."
An offensive lineman isn't going to win the Heisman, but one assistant believes Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum should be in the conversation.
"Show me a player in college football who's playing his position better than [Linderbaum]," the coach said. "If you were having a draft of college football players, he'd be the first guy you'd want to build your offensive line around."
A head coach said the most complete player he's seen this season is Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr.
"He's got no weaknesses," he said. "He's a quick-twitch edge rusher, plays the run great and is the kind of defender that totally changes what you're trying to do. Alabama has had some great defensive players, but he's got a chance to be as good as any of them."
Who is the most underrated head coach?
Two names kept coming up with the coaches we talked to -- Wake Forest's Dave Clawson and Kentucky's Mark Stoops.
Clawson's Demon Deacons are off to a 7-0 start for the only second time in school history. The last 7-0 start at Wake Forest came in 1944. The Deacons are the ACC's only unbeaten team, headed to their sixth straight bowl game and ranked No. 12 in ESPN's latest power rankings. Stoops' Wildcats (6-1) are ranked No. 14 and have a real chance to win 10 regular-season games. The last time Kentucky won 10 games in the regular season was 1977. Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-win season in 2018, but that included a bowl win.
One head coach said Clawson has been building toward this season, especially on offense, and pointed out that at every head coaching stop he's improved the program.
"And it's not like he's been coaching at these schools with the most resources, the most tradition and the most recruiting reach," the coach said. "He's consistently outcoached people, and the surest gauge of a coach is what his players look like when they leave the program, not how highly rated they are when they come into the program."
The only real blip in Clawson's career came in 2008 when he was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee in Phillip Fulmer's final season before getting fired.
"He was the scapegoat in that whole deal," one assistant coach said. "It probably wasn't a good fit, but his entire body of work tells you that was the exception. Again, remember that he's done it at Wake Forest, which can't take just any player out there because of its academics. But look at the way they've scored points and the way he's developed that offense."
The schedule gets tougher the rest of the way for the Deacons, but they've scored 35 or more points in all seven games this season.
Outside of Nick Saban, Stoops is the longest tenured head coach in the SEC, which says a lot about his consistency and the way Kentucky has invested in its program with resources and patience, which is in scarce supply these days in college football.
"There are going to be a lot of good jobs open, and [Stoops] ought to be up for one of them if he wants it," one head coach said. "It might not be a sexy hire, but what he's done at Kentucky is freakin' incredible, just incredible. I mean, what he's done there is way more than what anybody else has done, based on where they are in talent level with everybody else in the SEC. I don't think it's close."
In the last three NFL drafts, Kentucky has produced 13 picks, and four of those players were taken in either the first or second rounds. The only SEC schools with more NFL draft picks during that span are Alabama (29), LSU (24), Georgia (23), Florida (20) and Auburn (16).
"What I look at is the way he's developed players," another coach said. "He doesn't go out and get the premier players, and yet, look at how many players he has drafted. It's not like he's going out and signing these great phenomenal five stars. He's going out and getting good players. He does a good job of evaluating players and knowing what he wants."
How good is Alabama?
It's a different kind of team at Alabama, which lost six players on offense from a year ago that were taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.
"Not even Alabama can recover from that, so it shouldn't be surprising that somebody was going to get them this year," an assistant coach said.
One of the other things that has been different about this season's Alabama team is that it's had trouble stopping the run at times and has also had some struggles against the pass.
"That goes back to that they're just not as good on defense up front as they have been," one head coach said. "They're still good, better than most teams, but not like they normally are."
Another head coach thinks Alabama will be aided by the fact that the quality of football in the SEC, and other conferences, simply isn't as good this season.
"Maybe there's a little COVID effect but to me football is sloppier on offense, defense, all of it," he said. "The SEC is still the best but there aren't any offenses out there like LSU in 2019 or even Alabama last year. I just don't see it, which means [Alabama] still has a really good chance to be right back there playing for an SEC championship and to get into the playoff."
What's wrong with Clemson's offense?
Perceptions can change quickly in college football. Just ask Clemson.
Coming into this season, the Tigers had made six straight playoff appearances and won two of the last six national championships, but with three losses this season and an offense that has lacked any punch, the questions are beginning to swirl.
After all, this was a Clemson offense that had racked up points in bunches during its playoff run. But in the 27-17 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, Dabo Swinney benched sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and went with his backup, redshirt sophomore Taisun Phommachanh, for a few series. Uiagalelei wound up coming back into the game, but it didn't make any difference. The Tigers have scored fewer than 20 points in regulation in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season.
"What's different this year is they don't have the skill players," one assistant coach said. "Go back and look. They had Deshaun Watson and then Trevor Lawrence at quarterback for most of their [playoff)] run, and every year they had a first-round draft pick at running back or receiver. They don't have those difference-makers at the skill positions this year."
Another assistant said it's way too early to say that Uiagalelei isn't going to be able to get back on track after playing well a year ago when Lawrence was out.
"It does seem that maybe some of their problems on offense are starting to get inside his head a little bit, but that's not that uncommon for a first-year starter," the coach said. "It makes it a lot harder when you don't have Travis Etienne back there to hand it off to, too."
As good as Clemson has been under Swinney, one coach said the offensive line has never been what you would call elite, and is even bordering on average at times.
"It's really been glaring this year. They've had some injuries, and I think they lack some toughness up there," he said. "That's a recipe for disaster when you combine that with a first-year starter at quarterback.
"They've never recruited as well in the offensive line as some of the other positions. They've had such good skill players that it didn't matter. Plus, they're playing in a league that doesn't expose them as much in the offensive line when they're not as good."
Is Cincinnati legit?
The unbeaten Bearcats are making a strong push to be the first Group of 5 team to make the College Football Playoff.
Do they belong?
One Power 5 head coach said that while it's probably going to depend partly on the records of other conference champions, he thinks the Bearcats will get in if they remain unbeaten.
"I understand the talk is going to be, 'But what if they played in one of the Power 5 leagues?'" the coach said. "My answer would be, 'Going unbeaten in those leagues probably wouldn't be as doable, but that doesn't diminish their accomplishment and what kind of football team they are.' Plus, they've already beaten Notre Dame at Notre Dame."
A Power 5 assistant said Cincinnati will probably be held to a higher standard by the playoff selection committee when it comes to style points. The Bearcats had to hold off 1-6 Navy 27-20 on Saturday.
"If they have a few more games like that it may cost them," he said. "Maybe that's not fair, but given their overall level of competition that's just the way it is."
One Group of 5 head coach added: "I'm not so sure that the [American Athletic Conference] isn't right there on par with the Pac-12 or even the ACC this year. At some point, it can't be, 'Well, the Power 5 conferences are always going to get the benefit of the doubt.' And let's not forget that even though it was last year, Cincinnati took a really talented Georgia team to the wire in the Peach Bowl."
The argument against Cincinnati making the playoff is that the Bearcats would not be able to make it through the week-to-week grind of the SEC or the Big Ten.
"I would say that the first three or four schools in both the SEC and Big Ten, maybe even the Big 12, would take their chances of getting through the AAC without a loss or maybe just one loss," a Power 5 assistant coach said. "That's not to say that Cincinnati isn't a really good team. They've got a seasoned quarterback [Desmond Ridder] who can beat you a couple of different ways, some defensive players that will play in the NFL and are extremely well coached.
"So maybe this is the year we see a school outside the Power 5 get a shot."