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Bowl projections and analysis: Taking stock of Cincinnati, Oklahoma after scares

In Week 8 of the college football season, top-10 teams Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Oregon survived significant scares, while Penn State and Oklahoma State did not. Is some semblance of order settling in after a roller-coaster first half of the season? Don't count on it. Each week brings new ramifications to the bowl picture.

In addition to predicting the matchups for every bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and teams that helped or hurt their cause the most.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Cincinnati

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma

Bonagura's most intriguing matchup: It's looking more and more like Cincinnati will become the first Group of 5 team to crash the College Football Playoff party, so what better team to greet the Bearcats than the most dominant program of the era? With the inevitability of playoff expansion to consider, a Cincinnati-Alabama playoff matchup would be a historical anomaly for the sport and a game, regardless of the result, that would be a point of pride for Cincinnati for a long time.

Playoff breakdown

Bonagura: Let's consider this: If Georgia and Alabama are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 going into the SEC title game and Georgia wins a close game, would the committee punish Alabama, with two losses, by dropping the Tide out of the top four? It's possible! But by having Georgia in the top spot, the committee would have sent the message that it would expect everyone to lose to the Dawgs. So from that perspective, why should Alabama be punished for what probably would have happened to every other team? If anything, a close loss to Georgia would reaffirm that Alabama was in Georgia's tier. There's a lot of football left, and we're working in the world of hypotheticals here, but let's just say the Tide still look like a top-four team. The team that doesn't look like a top-four team but is still in the mix? Oklahoma. Yes, the Sooners are undefeated, but the unwritten rule is that teams that get shut out by Kansas before halftime and need a fourth-quarter comeback to win in Lawrence probably won't fare too well against playoff-caliber teams.

Schlabach: I still believe Georgia and Alabama are the top two teams in the country, but I'm sticking with the Bulldogs to defeat the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship game. That's why you don't see Alabama in my top four. In terms of the eye test and talent, the Crimson Tide are better than Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma, but I'm not sure they can get in the CFP with two losses. Clearly, it wasn't a great week for the Bearcats and Sooners, who struggled to put away opponents that came into Saturday with 1-5 records. Oklahoma's defense remains a concern, but I think the Sooners are good enough on offense, especially with Caleb Williams at quarterback, to outscore opponents the rest of the way. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if OU lost a game down the stretch. Likewise, I wouldn't be shocked to see SMU knock off Cincinnati on Nov. 20. The Mustangs are scoring a ton of points and this might be Sonny Dykes' best defense. The Buckeyes seem to be hitting their stride, albeit against less competition. We'll find out how much their defense has improved over their last five games, when they play Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Michigan State

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Texas-San Antonio
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

Schlabach's most intriguing matchup: I'm not sure why we're all sleeping on the Wolverines, who are 7-0 for the first time since Jim Harbaugh's second season at his alma mater. There's nothing flashy about Michigan's offense, which is exactly the way Harbaugh likes it. In Saturday's 33-7 victory over Northwestern, the Wolverines ran for 294 yards with four touchdowns and outscored the Wildcats 23-0 in the second half. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald was one of the best hires in the offseason; the Wolverines lead the Big Ten in scoring defense (14.3 points) and are No. 2 in total defense (299 yards).

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma State


Team knocking on the door of the NY6

Bonagura: Kentucky. The Wildcats are 6-1 and should be favored in every game the rest of the way. If they win out, they'll be a lock for a New Year's Six bowl, but it's worth noting that in that scenario they would finish without a win against a team currently ranked in the AP Top 25.

Schlabach: Ole Miss. We knew the Ole Miss offense would be prolific this season with Lane Kiffin drawing up plays and Matt Corral directing the fast-paced attack. The question was whether the Rebels would be any better on defense. After a 42-21 loss at Alabama and a 52-51 win over Arkansas, the Rebels had five sacks in consecutive victories over Tennessee and LSU. The Rebels will need some help to reach a New Year's Six bowl, but they're in position to be in the conversation in Kiffin's second season. A road trip to Auburn on Saturday and home game against Texas A&M on Nov. 13 will probably determine their fate.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Kent State vs. Florida Atlantic

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. UAB


Team that helped its cause the most

Bonagura: Pittsburgh. Clemson is obviously not the team we have come to expect in recent years, but the fact that Pittsburgh won so comfortably against the Tigers removes a layer of skepticism that might have still existed for many people. Quarterback Kenny Pickett is the real deal, and while a home loss to Western Michigan is tough to comprehend, the Panthers are set up well for the final month-plus of the regular season.

Schlabach: Iowa State. We're finally starting to see the Iowa State football team we thought we'd see at the start of the season. The Cyclones improved to 16-2 in October since 2017 by upsetting No. 8 Oklahoma State at home Saturday. After a 2-2 start, Iowa State has won three in a row to move into a three-way tie with Oklahoma State and Baylor in the Big 12 standings, one game behind Oklahoma. Brock Purdy threw for 307 yards with two touchdowns, Breece Hall ran for 70 yards with one score, and Xavier Hutchinson had 12 catches for 125 yards with two scores. The stars are finally shining at Iowa State. The Cyclones will play three of their last five games on the road, including a Nov. 20 trip to Oklahoma, but they're right back in the Big 12 title race after another flat start.


Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Charlotte vs. Kent State
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Toledo

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Norfolk State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Louisiana Monroe vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: USC vs. San Diego State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UAB
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Charlotte vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San Jose State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. UTEP
Schlabach: Utah State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. SMU
Schlabach: Stanford vs. Air Force


Team that hurt its cause the most

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina. Coming off an 11-1 season and ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, Coastal Carolina was in position to run the table and force its way into the top 12 and a New Year's Six bowl. But after losing to Appalachian State 30-27 on Wednesday, that pathway is gone. The loss doesn't take away from the fact that the Chanticleers are on the rise, but they won't have a chance to be remembered the way they might have been with an undefeated season.

Schlabach: Penn State. Perhaps only in the Big Ten would a nine-overtime game be decided by a 20-18 score. The Nittany Lions had plenty of chances to put away Illinois at home Saturday, but ultimately came away on the wrong end of the longest game in FBS history. The stunning loss put a huge dent in Penn State's Big Ten title hopes. With games remaining against Ohio State (road), Michigan (home) and Michigan State (road), it's hard to see the Nittany Lions making a New Year's Six bowl.


Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Memphis

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. USC
Schlabach: Hawaii vs. SMU

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Troy
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Troy

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Boston College vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Central Florida

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Army
Schlabach: Houston vs. Washington State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Florida

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Utah
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arizona State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 29

Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Miami vs. Tulsa

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Purdue vs. Clemson

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Iowa State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oregon State

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. North Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Wisconsin

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Utah

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. NC State
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Virginia

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Clemson vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Louisville vs. UCLA

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Florida
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Arkansas

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Iowa

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas vs. LSU