With top-ranked Georgia off and the top six ranked teams in action all favored by more than three touchdowns, Week 8 of the college football season probably isn't going to be the best week for generating storylines related to the national title race.
Granted, No. 8 Oklahoma State and No. 10 Oregon are both road underdogs against unranked teams, which is fun and rare, and we've already seen a couple of 30-point favorites suffer upsets this year. Wild things could still happen. But odds certainly favor a pretty quiet week on the title front.
That's fine! That just gives us a chance to talk about other things. The first genuinely wide-open ACC title race in ages, for one. The spectacular rise of transfers Jameson Williams and Bailey Zappe, for another. You can check out whether Ohio State's defense has indeed rebounded like SP+ seems to think it has. You can take a good, long look at the aggressive Oklahoma State defense that has driven the Cowboys' unbeaten start.
Episode 8 of the college football season might be one for secondary plot lines and supporting character development, but as anyone who enjoyed the "Beard After Hours" episode of "Ted Lasso" can attest, you need those episodes to really flesh out a good television show. It's a good weekend for checking out some of the sport's bigger surprises and question marks, and here's what I'll be paying particularly close attention to, in case you want to follow along.
All times below are Eastern.
An unexpected ACC race comes into focus
Clemson at No. 23 Pitt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 18 NC State at Miami (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Georgia Tech at Virginia (7:30 p.m., ACCN)
At the beginning of the season, ESPN's FPI gave Clemson, the six-time defending ACC champion, an 80% chance of winning the conference before any games had even been played, and none of us batted an eye. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei would step in for the departed Trevor Lawrence and thrive, the defense would be otherworldly and the Tigers would cruise.
The defense has indeed been ridiculous -- third in defensive SP+, second in points allowed per drive, no obvious weakness to exploit -- and it appears it will remain so even without injured star lineman Bryan Bresee. But the offense has been unfathomably bad. In five tries, the 4-2 Tigers have yet to score more than 19 points on an FBS defense in regulation, and Uiagalelei ranks 104th in Total QBR. They can run the ball reasonably well and are good in the red zone, but the passing game has been a nightmare. Clemson scored a combined 17 points in regulation in losses to Georgia and NC State.
The door is open, in other words. This might be the first time since about 2012 that we don't already know who's going to win the ACC. But we'll have a pretty clear idea of the hierarchy after Week 8.
ESPN's FPI currently gives five teams a greater than 1% chance to win the ACC: Pitt (58%), NC State (19%), Clemson (10%), Wake Forest (8%) and Virginia (3%). Pitt has proved itself superior on paper, rising to seventh in FPI and 11th in SP+ and winning its first two conference games by a combined 52 points. A fluky loss to Western Michigan threw pollsters off the scent -- the Panthers entered the AP top 25 only this week -- but a win over the annual champs Saturday would give Pitt excellent odds of not only winning the league but winning out and reaching 12-1 in the process.
Clemson still has that defense, though. As incredible as Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett's late-career emergence has been -- 70% completion rate, 13.5 yards per completion, third in Total QBR -- the Clemson pass-rushing trio of Myles Murphy, Xavier Thomas and Tre Williams (a combined 6.5 sacks, 49 pressures and 17 forced incompletions/interceptions) will put him under duress, and cornerback Mario Goodrich (passing line allowed thus far: 6-of-19 for 50 yards) will hold one of Pickett's key targets in check from play to play.
Clemson will still have to score, of course, and Pitt's defense is pretty good at preventing that. But until the Panthers have officially vanquished the Tigers, it's hard to automatically assume they will.
After the ACC's afternoon main event, two other potentially vital games kick off in the evening. NC State controls its destiny in the Atlantic division, and the Wolfpack are favored against a Miami team that has gone through an unplanned youth movement this season. Freshmen and sophomores currently occupy 25 of 44 spots on the Miami two-deep, but the Canes have still come within a break or two of beating North Carolina and Virginia in their past two games. If NC State's inconsistency strikes again -- in the Pack's last two games, they've destroyed Boston College and nearly lost to Louisiana Tech -- Miami could cause problems.
Then there's Virginia. The Cavaliers are two games back of Pitt in the loss column (they travel to Heinz Field on Nov. 20), but since losing by 20 points to both North Carolina and Wake Forest, they've eked out road wins over Miami and Louisville and destroyed Duke in Charlottesville. They're up to 10th in offensive SP+, and if Kenny Pickett isn't the conference's biggest breakout star, it's UVa's Brennan Armstrong, who is averaging 403 passing yards per game. If the Cavaliers beat Georgia Tech and Pitt loses to Clemson, we've got ourselves a Coastal race.
Jameson Williams was supposed to be good ... but this good?
Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN)
With Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker nursing an apparent knee injury suffered in the closing moments of the Volunteers' chaotic loss to Ole Miss, few are expecting Alabama to struggle all that much with the up-tempo Vols in what has been an awfully lopsided rivalry of late.
There's still plenty of reason to watch, however. After losing to Texas A&M in Week 6, the Tide responded with vigor, pounding Mississippi State by 40 points in Starkville. They have five more games to find their final form before a likely SEC championship game battle with top-ranked Georgia, and the loss to A&M removed their margin for error.
One more reason to watch: Jameson Williams. Almost overnight, the Ohio State transfer became the Tide's most dangerous skill-corps player. He has caught 29 of 45 passes for 587 yards, six touchdowns and only one drop.
One of the most devastating aspects of the 2020 Bama offense was the versatility and interchangeable nature of the Tide receiving corps. DeVonta Smith, John Metchie and Jaylen Waddle (when healthy) could line up anywhere from play to play and get open in any part of the field.
The Bryce Young-to-Jameson Williams pass chart shows us that the versatility hasn't gone anywhere.
Like Smith and Metchie last year, Williams and Metchie are everywhere. Williams has recorded 52% of his receptions from the slot and 48% from out wide; Metchie is at 44% and 56%, respectively.
Wherever he lines up, Williams has made a key contribution in stretching the field. On passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield, he has caught 4 of 13 for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young is otherwise just 3-for-16 on such passes.
In all, Young has completed just 24% of these downfield throws, and his raw QBR on those passes ranks 111th in FBS. (Inside of 20 yards, he ranks third in QBR.) It is the missing link for the Bama offense to date, but at least he has Williams. The Tennessee linebacking corps, led by Jeremy Banks, could create some havoc near the line of scrimmage, but that will matter only if they hold Williams in check.
The rise of the Oklahoma State defense
No. 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
It's safe to say the odds of Oklahoma State reaching 6-0 weren't great -- the Cowboys beat Missouri State, Tulsa and Boise State by a combined 13 points to start the season.
Each survive-and-advance moment, however, seems to have made the Pokes a bit stronger. In conference play, they fended off Kansas State by 11 points, took down an otherwise unbeaten Baylor by 10 and outscored Texas 19-0 over the final 25 minutes of a 32-24 win in Austin.
The Cowboys do very little well on offense. They ranked in the offensive SP+ top 10 eight times between 2007 and '18, but they're currently 80th, having resorted mostly to handing the ball to Jaylen Warren -- who is averaging 32 carries and 165 yards over the past four games -- and trying to give the defense decent field position.
The defense has risen to the challenge and then some. The Cowboys are 10th in defensive SP+, forcing three-and-outs on 43% of drives (ninth), and ranking 11th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 17th in sack rate. They push you backward, tilt the field and outlast you.
Will that work against Iowa State? Brock Purdy is completing 74% of his passes, Breece Hall is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and the Cyclones are basically two semi-fluky losses away from an unbeaten record. They outgained Iowa and Baylor by a combined 369 yards but fell to the former because of turnovers and to the latter because of special teams miscues. They never left the SP+ top 20 and currently rank 12th. In a season full of toss-ups and unlikely wins for OSU, this might be the least likely win of all. But that defense will give the Cowboys a shot.
When will we know if the Ohio State defense is fine?
No. 5 Ohio State at Indiana (7:30 p.m., ABC)
As far as quick fixes go, Ryan Day's has worked pretty well thus far. The Ohio State head coach had some holes to patch in his defense after it got gashed for 913 combined yards and 66 points by Minnesota and Oregon to start the season. Defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs had not come up with any offseason answers to counter some occasional glitches suffered in 2020, and secondary coach Matt Barnes took over playcalling against Tulsa.
Granted, the Tulsa game didn't go all that well, either -- the Golden Hurricane gained 501 yards at 6.1 per play -- but the Buckeyes made some late stops to pull away for a 41-20 win. Since then, they've outscored three opponents of varying quality by a devastating 177-37 margin. In their last game, they sacked Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa five times, picked him off twice and held the Terrapins -- who are still 22nd in offensive SP+ -- to 17 points and 335 yards (4.5 per play).
There are more challenges on the horizon. Assuming the Buckeyes survive a trip to Indiana with minimal issues, their final five regular-season games will feature three teams ranked 31st or better in offensive SP+ (Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State), plus an explosive Michigan State attack and the Purdue team that just threw for 378 yards on Iowa.
The Buckeyes should handle a moribund Indiana attack just fine, but if you're looking for signs of progress, set the bar at around 19 Hoosier points. SP+ projects IU to score 18.9, and the Hoosiers' projected score via the Caesars Sportsbook line (Ohio State -21, 60.5 total points) is around 19.8. If Ohio State holds Indiana to 10 or 14, you might be tempted to brush it off, but it would be a sign of another step forward before the big tests begin.
Behold, the immortal Bailey Zappe
Western Kentucky at Florida International (7 p.m., ESPN+)
Houston Baptist played only four games last fall -- three against FBS teams, all away from home -- and went 1-3. That's about as unmemorable as it gets. But if you watched any of those games, you most certainly remember the Huskies. Quarterback Zappe completed 66% of his passes and averaged a whopping 458 passing yards per game. Receivers Jerreth and Josh Sterns and Josh Ratzlaff combined for 89 catches and 1,256 yards. Coordinator Zach Kittley fielded an attack that was potent and relentless, and it was nearly impossible to put HBU away. You had to keep scoring.
When Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton found himself in need of an offensive upgrade this offseason, he brought in Kittley ... and Zappe, both Sterns and Ratzlaff all followed. The whole crew moved to WKU, and damned if it hasn't worked out beautifully.
The Hilltoppers have scored at least 31 points in every game and rank fifth in both overall success rate and points per drive. Zappe has nearly matched last year's small-sample success -- he's throwing for 439 yards per game and completing 70% of his passes. Jerreth Sterns (69 catches, 962 yards) has been one of the most prolific receivers in the country, while Ratzlaff and Josh Sterns have contributed 14 catches as well.
The plan is pretty simple. Mitchell Tinsley (28 catches, 456 yards) lines up on the left, Daewood Davis (16 for 283) on the right, and Jerreth Sterns and Malachi Corley (36 for 346) roam everywhere in between. WKU spreads you from sideline to sideline, and Zappe finds the open man. The Hilltoppers beat man coverage (10.5 yards per attempt, 28th in FBS), and they destroy zone coverage (12.4, fifth). And if you get too aggressive against the short stuff, they'll hit you with a double move deep. Zappe doesn't throw a high percentage of passes beyond 20 yards, but he's completing 61% of them with eight TDs to just one interception.
After a maddening series of close losses, the 2-4 Hilltoppers pummeled Old Dominion on Saturday and now have a chance to make a run. SP+ projects them as a favorite in their next five games and gives them a 70% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. Zappe should throw for as many yards as he chooses against FIU, but this game has a bonus draw as well: FIU does almost nothing right, but quarterback Max Bortenschlager and receivers Tyrese Chambers and Bryce Singleton go deep a lot and sometimes connect. A combined 1,000 passing yards in this game isn't out of the question if they connect a few times.
Meep, meep
No. 24 UTSA at Louisiana Tech (7 p.m., Stadium).
For the first time ever, the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners entered the AP top 25 this week. Jeff Traylor's squad is 7-0 with road wins over Illinois, Memphis and Zappe's WKU. UTSA is fantastic against the run, and with opponents keying on star running back Sincere McCormick, quarterback Frank Harris has completed 69% of his passes to a trio of exciting receivers.
There are two more tricky road trips on deck for the Roadrunners. First, they face a baffling Louisiana Tech team that has nearly beaten NC State, SMU and Mississippi State and nearly lost to Southeastern Louisiana and North Texas. Then, after an off week, they head to El Paso for a surprisingly enormous game against 6-1 UTEP. If I had a vote -- and I most certainly do not and should not -- I could make a strong case for College GameDay to visit El Paso on Nov. 6 if UTSA can beat Tech and UTEP wins at Florida Atlantic next week.
Week 8 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Memphis at UCF (7 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams are suffering setback seasons, but the past four meetings between the Tigers and Knights have all been absolute classics. Maybe they've got another banger in store?
Early Saturday
No. 2 Cincinnati at Navy (noon, ESPN2). It would take a mammoth upset for a top-two team to lose for a third straight week, but any chance to watch the take-no-prisoners Bearcats in action is worthwhile.
Northwestern at No. 6 Michigan (noon, Fox). After two road games and a bye, Michigan returns home for a tuneup against the bend-don't-break Wildcats before next week's enormous rivalry game at Michigan State.
No. 16 Wake Forest at Army (noon, CBSSN). Army almost stole an upset at Wisconsin last week; can the unbeaten Demon Deacons solve the triple-option puzzle and move to 7-0? Saturday afternoon Wisconsin at No. 25 Purdue (3 p.m., BTN). After vanquishing Iowa, Purdue returns home to basically play Iowa again. Wisconsin's defense is even better than the Hawkeyes', but the Badgers' offense has been far glitchier.
No. 10 Oregon at UCLA (3:30 p.m., ABC). The Pac-12 title race has already seen a number of plot twists, and it could see one more if the explosive Bruins indeed take down the Ducks as the sportsbooks (and SP+) think they should.
LSU at No. 12 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., CBS). Rebels quarterback and Heisman contender Matt Corral is banged up, but it's Eli Manning Day in Oxford, and if this year's game comes anywhere close to last year's nuttiness, this is a must watch.
FCS grab bag. This weekend might lack for ranked-versus-ranked matchups, but dip down a level and you've got a bounty of them in the midafternoon. Top-ranked defending champion Sam Houston hosts Florida State vanquisher and No. 21 Jacksonville State (3 p.m., ESPN+), unbeaten No. 3 North Dakota State hosts Bobby Petrino's 18th-ranked Missouri State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+), No. 6 James Madison tries to avoid a second loss in three weeks on a trip to No. 25 Delaware (4 p.m., FloSports), and No. 7 South Dakota State faces a visit from No. 24 Northern Iowa and its killer defense (3:30 p.m., ESPN3). Pick your flavor and enjoy.
Saturday evening
No. 22 San Diego State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN). Rocky Long left town almost two years ago, but SDSU is still SDSU, mixing a randomly explosive offense with an utterly dominant defense. But Air Force is 6-1 with only a fluky loss to Utah State. This one could go down to the wire.
USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). USC took a knockout blow to the chin about midway through its Week 6 loss to Utah. If they're dialed back in, Drake London and the dangerous Trojans offense could test an increasingly awesome Irish defense. If.