After 60 or more FBS games in each of the first five weeks of the season, there were only 51 in Week 6 and 52 in Week 7. There are 54 in Week 8, and four of the AP's top 15 teams are off; there are no matchups between two ranked teams, and the six highest-ranked teams in action are all favored by at least 20 points.
We can never rule anything out, but after all the action and chaos of the first seven weeks, it's likely this will be a pretty tame weekend. A bye week for us, if you will.
A bye week is a prime opportunity for coaches to turn their gaze inward and do some good, hard self-scouting. So let's do the same.
All things considered, my SP+ ratings have performed pretty well this season. Despite all the uncertainty of whether we could trust anything we saw in the strange, disjointed 2020 season, SP+ preseason projections held up, and it is currently at 51.8% against the midweek Caesars spread (FBS vs. FBS games only) and, thanks to some dynamite FCS numbers, 56.5% against the closing spread (FBS vs. FCS games included).
There have been a few more big whiffs than normal: the absolute error (the absolute-value average of the actual scoring margin minus the projected margin) is at 13.1 points per game, 0.7 higher than it was in a brilliant 2019. But really, that was to be expected. The sportsbooks themselves have had a higher absolute error this year as well.
In the name of self-scouting, let's check our work. I listed SP+ win projections for every FBS team before the season -- let's see where the hits and misses have come from and what lessons we might learn.
SEC
Largest preseason disagreements:
LSU Tigers (4-3)
Preseason expectations: 8.5 wins per Caesars, 7.1 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the preseason under, per SP+: 99%
Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)
Preseason expectations: 11.5 wins per Caesars, 10.4 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Missouri Tigers (3-4)
Preseason expectations: 7 wins per Caesars, 6.1 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 98% (2% push)
Tennessee Volunteers (4-3)
Preseason expectations: 6 wins per Caesars, 6.8 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 71% (26% push)
Stock up: Kentucky (up from 6.6 projected wins to 9.2), Arkansas (up from 5.3 to 6.9), Georgia (up from 9.9 to 11.3), Ole Miss (up from 7.4 to 8.8).
Stock down: Florida (down from 9.1 projected wins to 7.8) and Missouri (down from 6.1 to 4.8), Vanderbilt (down from 3.6 to 2.5).
Big Ten
Largest preseason disagreements:
Northwestern Wildcats (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 6.5 wins per Caesars, 4.9 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 96%
Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1)
Preseason expectations: 11 wins per Caesars, 9.8 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 76% (24% push)
Michigan State Spartans (7-0)
Preseason expectations: 4.5 wins per Caesars, 5.5 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2)
Preseason expectations: 7 wins per Caesars, 7.8 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 47% (33% push)
Stock up: Michigan State (up from 5.5 projected wins to 9.1), Michigan (up from 7.8 to 9.7).
Stock down: Indiana (down from 6.9 projected wins to 4.2), Nebraska (down from 6.4 to 4.7), Wisconsin (down from 9.1 to 7.5).
Big 12
Largest preseason disagreements:
Baylor Bears (6-1)
Preseason expectations: 5.5 wins per Caesars, 6.1 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
TCU Horned Frogs (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 7.5 wins per Caesars, 6.9 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 89%
Oklahoma Sooners (7-0)
Preseason expectations: 11 wins per Caesars, 10.4 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 45% (38% push)
Stock up: Baylor (up from 6.1 projected wins to 8.8), Texas Tech (up from 5.1 to 6.9), Oklahoma State (up from 7.6 to 9.2).
Stock down: Iowa State (down from 9.2 projected wins to 7.9), WVU (down from 6.0 to 4.8).
Pac-12
Largest preseason disagreements:
USC Trojans (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 8.5 wins per Caesars, 8.9 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 2%
Colorado Buffaloes (2-4)
Preseason expectations: 4.5 wins per Caesars, 4.1 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 87%
Stock up: Oregon State (up from 4.3 projected wins to 7.0)
Stock down: Washington (down from 9.2 projected wins to 5.5), USC (down from 8.9 to 6.3), Cal (down from 5.9 to 3.9) and Arizona (down from 2.8 to 0.9).
ACC
Largest preseason disagreements:
Clemson Tigers (4-2)
Preseason expectations: 11.5 wins per Caesars, 10.8 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Virginia Tech Hokies (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 7 wins per Caesars, 7.7 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 8% (push)
North Carolina Tar Heels (4-3)
Preseason expectations: 10 wins per Caesars, 9.4 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Stock up: Wake Forest (up from 6.0 projected wins to 8.7), Pitt (up from 6.9 to 9.1), Virginia (up from 5.7 to 7.6), NC State (up from 6.7 to 8.5), Syracuse (up from 3.5 to 4.9).
Stock down: Miami (down from 9.1 projected wins to 5.5), North Carolina (down from 9.4 to 2.5), Clemson (down from 10.8 to 8.9) and Virginia Tech (down from 7.7 to 5.8), Louisville (down from 6.9 to 5.7), Florida State (down from 5.7 to 4.6).
Independents
Largest preseason disagreements:
BYU Cougars (5-2)
Preseason expectations: 6.5 wins per Caesars, 8.1 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 97%
UMass Minutemen (1-5)
Preseason expectations: 1.5 wins per Caesars, 2.4 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 81%
Stock up: Notre Dame (up from 7.9 projected wins to 9.5).
Stock down: UConn (down from 2.4 projected wins to 1.4).
AAC
Largest preseason disagreements:
Temple Owls (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 3 wins per Caesars, 4.7 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 95% (5% push)
SMU Mustangs (6-0)
Preseason expectations: 6 wins per Caesars, 7.2 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Tulane Green Wave (1-5)
Preseason expectations: 5 wins per Caesars, 6.1 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 1% (7% push)
UCF Knights (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 9.5 wins per Caesars, 8.7 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Stock up: SMU (up from 7.2 projected wins to 9.3), Cincinnati (up from 9.5 to 11.3), Houston (up from 8.0 to 9.4).
Stock down: Tulane (down from 6.1 projected wins to 3.1), UCF (down from 8.7 to 7.3), USF (down from 3.7 to 2.3), Memphis (down from 8.0 to 6.8).
Sun Belt
Largest preseason disagreements:
UL Monroe Warhawks (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 1.5 wins per Caesars, 2.5 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Georgia Southern Eagles (2-5)
Preseason expectations: 4.5 wins per Caesars, 5.3 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 4%
Troy Trojans (4-3)
Preseason expectations: 6.5 wins per Caesars, 7.3 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 34%
Stock up: South Alabama (up from 4.0 projected wins to 6.3), ULM (up from 2.5 to 4.1), Coastal Carolina (up from 9.9 to 11.0).
Stock down: Georgia Southern (down from 5.3 projected wins to 3.0), Arkansas State (down from 4.7 to 2.8), Troy (down from 7.3 to 6.1).
Mountain West
Largest preseason disagreements:
UNLV Rebels (0-6)
Preseason expectations: 1.5 wins per Caesars, 2.8 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 42%
San Diego State Aztecs (6-0)
Preseason expectations: 6.5 wins per Caesars, 7.6 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Colorado State Rams (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 4.5 wins per Caesars, 5.6 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 88%
Utah State Aggies (4-2)
Preseason expectations: 3.5 wins per Caesars, 4.5 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Boise State Broncos (3-4)
Preseason expectations: 9 wins per Caesars, 8.1 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Stock up: Air Force (up from 6.6 projected wins to 9.1), SDSU (up from 7.6 to 9.7), Utah State (up from 4.5 to 6.6) and Fresno State (up from 6.6 to 8.5).
Stock down: Boise State (down from 8.1 projected wins to 5.8), UNLV (down from 2.8 to 1.4), SJSU (down from 6.9 to 5.6), New Mexico (down from 4.6 to 3.3).
MAC
Largest preseason disagreements:
Bowling Green Falcons (2-5)
Preseason expectations: 1.5 wins per Caesars, 2.7 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Western Michigan Broncos (5-2)
Preseason expectations: 6 wins per Caesars, 7.2 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 96% (4% push)
Ball State Cardinals (4-3)
Preseason expectations: 7.5 wins per Caesars, 6.6 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 79%
Stock up: NIU (up from 3.9 projected wins to 7.2).
Stock down: Ohio (down from 7.2 projected wins to 3.1), Buffalo (down from 7.4 to 5.7), Toledo (down from 8.4 to 6.8).
Conference-USA
Largest preseason disagreements:
UTEP Miners (6-1)
Preseason expectations: 2.5 wins per Caesars, 4.1 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 100%
Florida International Panthers (1-5)
Preseason expectations: 4.5 wins per Caesars, 6.1 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 20%
North Texas Mean Green (1-5)
Preseason expectations: 4 wins per Caesars, 5.2 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 15% (27% push)
Rice Owls (2-4)
Preseason expectations: 6 wins per Caesars, 5.0 per SP+ (under)
Current odds of hitting the under: 100%
Florida Atlantic Owls (3-3)
Preseason expectations: 7 wins per Caesars, 8.0 per SP+ (over)
Current odds of hitting the over: 22% (34% push)
Stock up: UTEP (up from 4.1 projected wins to 8.0), UTSA (up from 7.7 to 10.6), UAB (up from 7.3 to 8.5), Charlotte (up from 5.1 to 6.2).
Stock down: Southern Miss (down from 6.2 projected wins to 3.0), FIU (down from 6.1 to 3.6), North Texas (down from 5.2 to 3.3), Rice (down from 5.0 to 3.5), FAU (down from 8.0 to 6.6).
What did we learn?
In all, SP+ has fared well. Its projected win totals were at least 1.0 wins higher than the Caesars totals for 17 teams -- seven of those have already hit the over, four more have at least an 88% chance of doing so (per SP+ projections), and only two have a less than 40% chance of at least pushing (Tulane and FIU). It should end up right on at least 11 of 17.
On the flip side, SP+ disagreed with Caesars by at least 0.6 wins on the low side for 22 teams -- nine have already clinched the under, and five more have at least a 91% chance of doing so. SP+ should end up winning at least 16-17 of the 22.
By far the biggest whiffs came in the Pac-12. The conference boasted some of the highest returning production averages in the country -- returning production is a large piece of the preseason projections -- and while teams like Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon and an increasingly hot Utah have basically lived up to projections or slightly exceeded them, USC and Washington have both dreadfully underachieved, enough that the average win total for the conference right now is 0.5 wins per team lower than it was at the beginning of the season. No other conference has fallen by more than 0.15.
The most volatile conferences: the ACC and C-USA. The ACC has seen five teams' expected win totals rise by at least 1.3 and six fall by at least 1.1, while C-USA has seen four rise by that much and five fall. The MAC, another conference with heavy returning production figures, has also been quite volatile, but conferences like the SEC and Big 12 and the group of independents have played out pretty close to expectations.
Really, that might not be a surprise. The Pac-12 and MAC both featured a handful of teams getting in only three or four games last fall, while the SEC and Big 12 played mostly full seasons. I'm not sure if weighting certain factors differently would have made preseason projections more stable or if things were simply always going to be unstable for those tiny-sample conferences.