The Big Ten's chances of having two teams finish in the top four took a serious nosedive Saturday when Iowa lost at home to unranked Purdue. In the ideal scenario for the Big Ten, the selection committee would have considered both the conference champion and its one-loss runner-up, had Iowa managed to finish the regular season undefeated before losing a close game in the Big Ten title game.
Now, unless Iowa wins the Big Ten (which would ultimately be more surprising than its loss Saturday), the conference needs to bank on the East champion emerging as its lone representative.
In spite of their No. 2 ranking heading into the weekend, the Hawkeyes no longer look like a serious contender -- but it's still too early to eliminate them. The same can be said for fellow one-loss teams Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama.
Some teams have a far more difficult path to the playoff, while others -- like undefeated Cincinnati -- might not need as much help as you think. For now, Georgia is the outlier to the chaos. The Bulldogs have separated themselves as a clear No. 1 and avoided any sense of an upset Saturday against Kentucky. Assuming they run the table and win the East, Georgia can potentially lose the SEC title game to Alabama and still finish in the top four.
Everyone else? They need a few things to go their way.
Here's a breakdown of what some top contenders -- and a few sleeper candidates -- need in the second half of the season to be considered on Selection Day:
Ohio State
What the Buckeyes need: Run the table and win the Big Ten. It's pretty straightforward. The loss to Oregon can be overcome easily with wins against Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and a conference title. That résumé would trump anything Cincinnati, and the Big 12 and ACC champs, would finish with. Even if Alabama and Georgia both finish in the top four, the Buckeyes likely would join them in this scenario.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Oregon. If both Ohio State and Oregon finish as one-loss conference champions and the selection committee considers them comparable teams, head-to-head is one of several tiebreakers they use. That goes out the window, though, if they think the Buckeyes are simply that much better since the Sept. 11 home loss.
Biggest obstacle: Simply surviving the second half of the season. Ohio State seems to be hitting its stride, but the Buckeyes haven't defeated a ranked opponent yet.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 at Michigan. It's The Game. On the road. Nuff said.
Cincinnati
What the Bearcats need: An undefeated season and a two-loss Alabama. It would also be a huge help if the Big 12 had a one-loss champion. Now that the Big Ten and SEC have both hurt their chances of placing two teams in the top four, the Bearcats don't need a miracle. It has to stay that way, though. If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game, they'll both likely get in, along with the Big Ten champion. So who gets that fourth spot? The Bearcats need to avoid that debate with an undefeated Big 12 champion.
They're good enough to earn serious consideration from the selection committee -- the Bearcats have scored 50 points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history. Because there has been so much chaos and parity in the first half of the season, and the ACC and Pac-12 don't appear to have an elite team, there's already room at the top. Iowa's home loss to Purdue on Saturday opened another door -- just one week after Alabama tumbled out of the top four.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Notre Dame, Indiana and SMU. Wins against the Irish and Hoosiers aren't as impressive as they appeared to be on paper this preseason. The Hoosiers are now 2-4 after Saturday's loss to Michigan State. Cincinnati needs to hope the one-loss Irish keep winning, and that IU finishes .500 or better. SMU is tricky because Cincy needs to win -- but might knock the Mustangs out of the top 25 in the process. The key will be where all of these teams rank in the selection committee's final top 25.
Biggest obstacle: Strength of schedule. The Bearcats are ranked No. 89 in remaining strength of schedule. That will be compared with every Power 5 conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 20 vs. No. 23 SMU. It's the one opportunity to impress the committee against a Top 25 opponent, and it's a home game, so the Bearcats have to leave no doubt they are the better team.
Oklahoma
What the Sooners need: Finish as undefeated Big 12 champion, or finish as a one-loss conference champion and hope that Georgia eliminates Alabama, Cincinnati loses, and there's chaos in the Big Ten. Oklahoma wants to avoid a scenario in which the top four looks like Georgia, Alabama, the Big Ten winner and a big debate between undefeated Cincinnati, one-loss Oklahoma and one-loss Oregon.
Opponents to keep an eye on: The Sooners simply need the committee to rank a handful of Big 12 teams, because beating Nebraska is still a shoulder shrug, and Tulane and Western Carolina aren't going to trump Cincinnati's road win against Notre Dame.
Biggest obstacle: Managing the QB room. Freshman Caleb Williams earned his first career start and threw four touchdowns and no interceptions. It was a jaw-dropping debut. How Spencer Rattler handles this is important. Lincoln Riley is the head coach, calls the plays and coaches the quarterbacks. It worked out perfectly Saturday in the 52-31 win against TCU. Can Riley keep it that way behind closed doors?
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State. The Sooners should still be favored to win this game, but it caps an extremely difficult November that also includes a trip to Baylor and a home game against Iowa State.
Alabama
What the Crimson Tide need: Win the SEC or hope for absolute chaos, including a two-loss Pac-12 champ, a Cincinnati loss, and a two-loss Big 12 champion. As it stands, it would be extremely hard for the committee to justify a two-loss Alabama in a semifinal with a field that could include Georgia, the Big Ten champion, undefeated Cincinnati and a one-loss or undefeated Big 12 champ. The Tide lost their margin for error when they lost to Texas A&M.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Texas A&M, Florida. How bad was that loss to the Aggies? It depends on how they finish and where they stand in the final CFP ranking. Texas A&M was unranked and had lost two games, and was unimpressive offensively when it beat the Tide on Oct. 9. If the Aggies run the table and finish with two losses, it might not be the dagger it first appeared to be. Why does it matter? Well, just in case that chaos referenced above happens to come to fruition. The flip side is true with the Gators, as the Sept. 18 win at Florida might not be as impressive as it seemed at the time -- especially after the Gators lost on Saturday to an unranked, struggling LSU team. Why does it matter? Keep reading ...
Biggest obstacle: A weak nonconference lineup. If by chance Alabama loses a close game to Georgia in the SEC championship and finishes with two losses, the nonconference games against Miami, Mercer and New Mexico State will come under heavy scrutiny. The Tide will have lost the game that mattered the most, so the committee will have to determine what its best wins are. Florida? Certainly not today. Ole Miss? Arkansas? They lost Saturday, too.
Toughest remaining game: Clearly the SEC championship game against Georgia, should they meet as expected.
Michigan
What the Wolverines needs: Finish as a one-loss or undefeated Big Ten champion, or lose a close game to Ohio State and pray for some chaos. If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten, and Michigan's only loss is to the conference champions, what would the selection committee do with the Wolverines? First they'd need Georgia to eliminate Alabama. Then they'd need Cincinnati to lose. They'd also need Oregon to finish with two losses because the Ducks would have accomplished something Michigan could not -- a win against the Buckeyes. They'd also have a common opponent in Washington. That's a dangerous debate for the Wolverines to enter. Without Alabama, Cincinnati, the ACC or Oregon in the picture, though, Michigan might stand a chance of joining Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma in the top four without winning its division.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Washington, juuuust in case one-loss Michigan gets into a résumé debate with one-loss Oregon if they're both conference champions. It's one small factor in a larger conversation, but it's a piece of the puzzle nonetheless.
Biggest obstacle: Three of the last five games are on the road, including Oct. 30 at rival Michigan State and Nov. 13 at Penn State.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 vs. Ohio State. They've got home-field advantage, but ESPN's FPI still only gives the Wolverines a 43% chance to win.
Penn State
What the Nittany Lions need: A healthy Sean Clifford, and a Big Ten title. They go hand in hand, and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. Even if Clifford is still out against Illinois on Oct. 23, Penn State should still have the upper hand against the Illini. They'll need him at full strength, though, to have any shot against the Buckeyes on Oct. 30. PSU has to run the table.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Auburn, Iowa. Penn State's nonconference win against the Tigers can continue to impress the selection committee, and Auburn's win against Arkansas on Saturday was a step in the right direction. The Nittany Lions should also hope they get a second shot at Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, an opportunity to prove something to the selection committee when it matters the most.
Biggest obstacle: Injuries. Senior defensive tackle and team captain P.J. Mustipher suffered a season-ending injury against Iowa, and coach James Franklin declined to say specifically what Clifford's injury is.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 30 at Ohio State. ESPN's Football Power Index gives PSU a 21.2% chance to win.
Michigan State
What the Spartans need: To survive and win the Big Ten East. The Spartans are No. 5 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, which has been a reliable indicator of past playoff teams. They are No. 9 in offensive efficiency, and have a Heisman hopeful in Kenneth Walker III. But the second half of their schedule is backloaded with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Purdue. We just saw the spoiler Boilers upset Iowa, and it could be a trap on Nov. 6 for Michigan State, too.
Biggest obstacle: A weak nonconference schedule. Wins against Youngstown State, Miami and Western Kentucky aren't going to impress the committee -- making it all the more important for the Spartans to take advantage of the opportunities they have in their own division.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 20 at Ohio State. No, it's not going to be easy to beat rival Michigan on Oct. 30, but at least it's a home game. ESPN's FPI gives the Spartans only an 18% chance to win in Columbus.
Oregon
What the Ducks need: Win the Pac-12 with style, face a ranked team in the Pac-12 championship, and for Georgia to eliminate Alabama. Oh, and ... a Cincinnati loss would also help, along with a one-loss Big 12 champion. The bottom line is this: As long as the Ducks finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champ, they will at least be considered, but they've got to start looking the part -- and they haven't for weeks.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Ohio State. If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten -- which is a very good possibility -- the Ducks could have one of the best nonconference wins in the country. And if Oregon finishes as a one-loss conference champion, the committee will have to consider that head-to-head result if they deem those teams comparable. It could help separate Oregon from another one-loss conference champion or possibly undefeated Cincinnati.
Biggest obstacle: A stagnant offense. The 24 points against unranked Cal on Friday night -- with offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead healthy and back in the booth calling plays -- is a concern, considering the Ducks had a week to prepare.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 20 at Utah. ESPN's FPI gives the Ducks a 50.9% chance to win.
Oklahoma State
What the Cowboys need: Finish as an undefeated Big 12 champion, or finish with one loss and hope that Georgia eliminates Alabama, Cincinnati loses, and there's chaos in the Big Ten. If the Cowboys win the Big 12, beating the Sooners in back-to-back games (to end the regular season and then again in the conference championship), it's hard to imagine they'd be left out. But consider this scenario: Alabama wins the SEC, handing Georgia its only loss, Cincinnati goes undefeated, and the Big Ten East produces an undefeated or one-loss conference champion. One-loss Oklahoma State might be No. 5 -- or it might edge out the Bearcats. Bottom line: One loss, and nothing is a given.
Opponents to keep an eye on: There isn't one in particular, but if the Cowboys finish as one-loss conference champions, where the rest of the Big 12 teams are ranked in the final CFP top 25 will enter into any debate.
Biggest obstacle: Public perception. Fair or not, the Cowboys will face a higher burden of proof than the Sooners, much like Iowa in the Big Ten. Mike Gundy's 2-14 record against OU might have a little something to do with that. There's only one way to change it.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 against Oklahoma. ESPN's FPI actually projects Saturday's game at Iowa State to be more difficult (18.5% chance to win), but while that road trip won't be easy, the rival Sooners are the tougher out.
Iowa
What the Hawkeyes need: Offense and a Big Ten title. It was only a matter of time before Iowa's ineptitude on offense caught up with the Hawkeyes. They have no more margin for error.
Opponents to keep an eye on: Iowa State, Penn State. The selection committee will be impressed by the win against rival Iowa State, assuming the Cyclones don't fall apart, which they shouldn't. It would be ideal for the Hawkeyes' playoff résumé if PSU found a way to win the East, but given the way the first game went, it's hard to envision Iowa finding a way to beat them a second time, especially in the Big Ten title game.
Biggest obstacle: Eye test. The Hawkeyes had been so impressive on defense and special teams until Saturday. They have yet to put together a complete game, or look capable of beating any team with an explosive offense.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 26 at Nebraska. The Huskers are on the brink of a turnaround, and they'll have home-field advantage on a Friday night.