The month of September in college football is one giant information-gathering exercise. By the end of four weeks or so, we think we've begun to figure out who's good, who's bad and whom we can trust to play at a certain level, good or bad.
Then October comes along and immediately renders a lot of those assumptions incorrect.
Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss attack put 48 points on Alabama last year and had averaged 53 points through three games this year. The Rebels visited Tuscaloosa on Saturday and found themselves down 28-0 at halftime.
Florida nearly beat Alabama in Week 3, then followed with a strong and easy performance against a potentially solid Tennessee team. There was legitimate reason to think of the Gators as a top-five-caliber team. On Saturday, they lost to a Kentucky team that almost lost to Chattanooga two weeks ago.
Iowa had shown genuine offensive upside during a six-game winning streak to end 2020 but was averaging only 4.6 yards per play during a 4-0 start this year. Same old "lean on defense and turnovers and do the bare minimum on O" Iowa, then? Nope, the Hawkeyes gained 453 yards, their second-highest total in 22 games, while indeed dominating with defense and turnovers in a 51-14 humiliation of previously unbeaten Maryland.
We had already seen more ranked teams lose in four weeks than at any time in the AP poll era, and in Week 5 nine more lost, including four of the top 10. This season is only getting more unpredictable. So let's step back and talk about the teams, units and players we can trust, and the ones on which we're still coming around. It's a Big Ten-heavy list, but with five of the top 11 teams in the AP poll, it's a Big Ten-heavy sport at the moment.
100% trust levels
Georgia and Alabama. Let's start with the obvious. The season has been dizzying, but there have been two clear anchors at the top.
Granted, as good as they've looked, both Kirby Smart's Bulldogs and Nick Saban's Crimson Tide were each just one or two bounces away from potentially being 4-1 right now. The Georgia defense dominated Clemson's meager offense in Week 1 but couldn't land the knockout blow on offense and had to ride out a 10-3 win; two weeks later, Alabama went up by 18 on Florida but gave up three straight long touchdown drives and had to make a late two-point stop to avoid overtime. Both teams could have more vulnerable moments in the future. But damn, have they looked good. Neither has trailed this season -- hell, neither has attempted even 50 snaps while tied -- and while that means we don't know everything that we need to about either team's resilience, it also makes them the surest things in the sport.
That Bama is this dominant isn't particularly surprising following a season in which the Tide might have fielded the greatest team in college football history. But Georgia has proved itself immensely, covering huge spreads by an average of 15.6 points per game. (The only team that has overachieved more against the spread: Bowling Green, at 16.0 points per game. Safe to say, the bar has been a bit lower for the Falcons.)
The chaos lovers among us, enthralled by 2021 so far, hyped Week 5's Alabama-Ole Miss and Georgia-Arkansas games, trying to will at least one upset into reality. But the Tide and Dawgs won by a combined 79-21. Despite Alabama's youth and Georgia's quarterback injury problems, there are no trust issues here.
Iowa's defense. My SP+ ratings are not designed to take into account some of the sport's eccentricities -- things like Maryland being awesome in September (15-4 in August/September since 2016) and extremely mortal thereafter. Or Iowa treating ambitious, midlevel conference foes with outright disdain.
With the calendar flipped to October for Friday night's battle in College Park, Maryland's carriage turned back into a pumpkin, and an Iowa team with hostile intentions made an example of the Terps. The Hawkeyes' offense looked impressive -- we'll get to that unit later -- but as is customary, the defense led the way.
Phil Parker's defense almost never changes but almost always gets results. Iowa ranks fourth in defensive SP+, combining efficiency (11th in success rate allowed) with elite big-play prevention. The Hawkeyes bait quarterbacks into making certain reads, then quickly show up in passing lanes to get hands on passes. They are averaging 7.2 passes defensed (interceptions and breakups) per game, second only to Ohio State, and they're leading the nation with 12 interceptions. Turnovers are flaky and partially luck-dependent, but the Hawkeyes create as many turnover opportunities as anyone in the country. They are incredible to watch.
Penn State's defense. Coordinator Brent Pry's Nittany Lions defense has finished between 10th and 14th in defensive SP+ for four straight years, but it has taken things to a different level in 2021. The Nittany Lions have yet to allow more than 20 points or 4.7 yards per play in a given game, and on Saturday night in Happy Valley, they pitched a shutout against Indiana, limiting the Hoosiers to 264 total yards.
Indiana did make its way inside the PSU 40 on four occasions but got stifled each time, suffering two turnovers, a turnover on downs and a blocked field goal. The Penn State offense is going to have its issues breaking down the Iowa defense this coming Saturday in Iowa City, but the Nittany Lions might be just fine in a low-scoring affair.
Bijan Robinson and Zach Evans. In Saturday's battle between Texas and TCU in Fort Worth, starting quarterbacks Casey Thompson (UT) and Max Duggan (TCU) threw a combined 50 passes for just 324 yards, three sacks and a Thompson interception. Not great. But despite being the only particularly effective weapons on either team, Robinson and Evans went off. Robinson rushed 35 times for 216 yards and caught two passes for another 22. Evans didn't command the same workload -- not sure why, honestly -- but gained 124 yards on 18 touches.
Both are 2020 blue-chippers, both went off late in their freshman campaigns, and both have been brilliant this fall. Robinson is second in the country with 130.4 rushing yards per game (6.2 per carry), and Evans is 10th with 110.8 yards per game despite averaging only 14 carries. They have both lived up to their recruiting hype, and then some.
We're getting there
Ohio State's defense. In 2014, Ohio State suffered a startling early-season home loss to Virginia Tech, 35-21. The defense mostly played its part, but the offense faltered; it blew two early scoring chances with missed field goals, and young quarterback J.T. Barrett went a dismal 9-for-29 with three interceptions and seven sacks.
With the spotlight off of the Buckeyes, however, they quietly found fifth gear. They won 11 straight games, scoring 40 or more in nine. They survived White Out against Penn State and beat a top-five Michigan State by 12 in East Lansing. They eked out the No. 4 seed in the inaugural College Football Playoff following a 59-0 destruction of Wisconsin. Two wins later, they were national champs.
I'm not saying Ohio State is going to win the title, but the parallels in 2021 are certainly noteworthy. This time, the defense was the primary cause of an early-season home loss -- 35-28 to Oregon, with the Ducks gaining 505 yards (6.9 per play). The issues continued a week later, when Tulsa gained 501 yards and kept the Buckeyes within one score into the fourth quarter before OSU pulled away. But with head coach Ryan Day making staff and role adjustments behind the scenes, and with young players gaining in experience and others returning from injury, the Buckeyes have allowed just 20 total points and 4.0 yards per play in huge wins over Akron and Rutgers.
Talent levels being what they are, it would make sense if the OSU defense were to indeed ignite at some point. If the Buckeyes can survive Maryland and Indiana in the coming weeks, they will get to prove their defensive rebound is real when Penn State visits on Oct. 30.
Michigan State's offense? You get used to things being a certain way, and it's hard to shock your brain into thinking something different.
Take Michigan State, for example. The Spartans ranked 14th or better in defensive SP+ eight times between 2011 and 2020, third or better three times. They were propped up by defense and, at times, dragged down by a stolid offense. This was the way for most of Mark Dantonio's tenure, and it continued last season under Mel Tucker: MSU ranked 12th in defensive SP+ and 109th on offense.
The script has flipped all the way around this fall. Second-year coordinator Jay Johnson has an incredibly experienced two-deep and added Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III (680 rushing yards, eight TDs) to the backfield. He has also overseen a breakthrough from receiver Jayden Reed. The junior from Naperville, Illinois, has gained 501 yards in just 25 combined receptions and rushes, and he has returned two punts for scores and boasts a 30.7-yard kick return average. Defenses can't focus on him because they'll get punished for it by Jalen Nailor and Tre Mosley (combined: 34 catches, 519 yards, three TDs).
Despite predictably low preseason projections -- the Spartans started out 92nd in offensive SP+ -- the MSU attack is now 38th in offensive SP+ and rising quickly. The Spartans' scoring average is as high as it's been in seven years, and recent history is the only reason they aren't in the "100% trust" category just yet. Hang 30-plus on Michigan on Oct. 30, and we'll bump them up.
Sean Clifford. I named Penn State's quarterback the No. 8 most important player in the country in August. "He ranked 38th in Total QBR last season, and if James Franklin's Nittany Lions are to return to top-10 status, he's got to make a jump. But with former Texas and Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich taking over the playcalling, and an experienced and exciting skill corps at his disposal, that's not out of the realm of possibility."
Five games in, Clifford is 13th in Total QBR, and Penn State is 23rd and rising in offensive SP+. And Clifford's resilience has been noteworthy. He's averaging 7.1 yards per dropback with a mediocre 62.7 raw QBR in the first half of games and struggled early against both Wisconsin and Indiana. But his second-half numbers are brilliant: 71% completion rate, 9.4 yards per dropback, 91.8 raw QBR. His skill corps is as exciting as advertised, and while the PSU offense is still the weak link compared to the team's brilliant defense, it's making up ground in a hurry.
Spencer Rattler. Last week I wrote that while the Oklahoma quarterback's perceived struggles had rendered him a bystander in the Heisman race, he wasn't exactly doing all that poorly. His line is far more mortal this year than last, and the big plays had vanished, but he was still running an efficient offense.
It was more of the same on Saturday at Kansas State. Marvin Mims caught a 40-yard pass, and Kennedy Brooks busted a 28-yard run, but for the most part the Wildcats forced Rattler to settle for efficiency passing over chunk plays. So he simply went 22-for-25 for 243 yards, led the Sooners on drives of 50-plus yards five times in a six-drive stretch, and helped tilt the field dramatically in OU's favor (average starting field position: OU 43, KSU 22). Oklahoma averaged 6.5 yards per play and survived 37-31 despite defensive deficiencies.
OU now heads to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry. Texas' defense is inefficient but good at big-play prevention, so expect more of the same. Recent results suggest Rattler will probably fare just fine.
Major trust issues, but we're working on it
Michigan's passing game. After struggling last season, the Michigan defense has quickly reverted back to near-elite form, allowing just 13 points per game and rising to eighth in defensive SP+. But after the Wolverines slid to just 42nd in offensive SP+, could they make plays when they needed to with minimal QB experience?
Thanks to defense, a strong run game and strong starts, Michigan has, like Alabama, Georgia and BYU, not yet trailed this season. We probably won't know what we need to know until the Wolverines are behind.
Quarterback Cade McNamara did have a solid day against Wisconsin on Saturday (considering the level of defensive competition), going 17-for-28 for 197 yards and two scores. But the Wolverines were just 6-for-16 on third downs when he was behind center, 4-for-13 on third-and-4 or more.
Filtering out garbage time, Michigan's passing success rate on passing downs (second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more) is just 22%, 120th in FBS. The Wolverines did a solid job of turning third-and-medium and third-and-long into fourth-and-manageable against Wisconsin and attempted five fourth-down conversions, succeeding on three. But while you can find some positive signs here, it's hard to feel like this question has been answered definitively.
Iowa's passing game. Kirk Ferentz's Hawkeyes do not require elite quarterback play to rack up wins. They have their defense for that. They won their last six games of 2020 and charged to 10th in SP+ despite first-year starter Spencer Petras ranking 64th in Total QBR and averaging just 5.8 yards per dropback (96th). It was hard to imagine those numbers improving without leading wideouts Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith, and they hadn't ... until two weeks ago.
With the run game struggling more than usual against Colorado State, Petras went 15-for-23 for 224 yards and two TDs to save the Hawkeyes. In Friday's romp over Maryland, he was 21-for-30 for 284 yards, three scores and a career-best 182.5 passer rating.
Petras' full-season numbers are almost identical to last year's: 62nd in Total QBR, 94th in yards per dropback (5.8). We can't call two games a trend, but if it turns out to be the start of one, Iowa's ceiling just got quite a bit higher.
Spencer Sanders. Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy has won a lot of games on the back of a prolific offense. The Cowboys ranked in the offensive SP+ top 10 eight times between 2007 and 2018, but last season, for just the third time since 2006, OSU ranked higher on defense (18th) than offense (41st). That recipe worked for an 8-3 finish, but it was hard to imagine the Pokes challenging for a spot in the Big 12 championship unless the offense rebounded a bit.
It hasn't. Oklahoma State is 76th in offensive SP+ and averaging just 24 points per game. The Cowboys also are 5-0, with the 12th-ranked defense. They're following an Iowa-like recipe to winning at the moment, and it's jarring to witness.
The pieces might be coming together on offense, though. Possibly? Beleaguered starting quarterback Spencer Sanders had a brilliant game against Kansas State, throwing for 344 yards and two scores. But he has been a "two steps forward, two steps back" guy for nearly three years now, and against Baylor's fantastic pass defense, he predictably backslid, throwing for 171 yards and three picks. Still, the Pokes hogged the ball and gained 401 yards thanks to a grind-it-out run game. This isn't a good offense yet, but it's been good enough to win two straight tight games in completely different ways. There might be promise, even if it's not yet convincing.
The ACC. For a few years, I've had a pretty standard line about the Pac-12 and ACC: The Pac-12 has been the better conference on average, with far better depth, but the ACC has been judged more kindly because it has a CFP contender in Clemson.
This year, the ACC doesn't have that Clemson. The Tigers remain a solid fourth overall in SP+ because of defense, strong preseason projections (which still make up about half of each team's rating) and a competitive showing against an otherwise unplayable Georgia. But they are a few steps from their normal standard, and North Carolina and Miami, which were supposed to challenge the Tigers' superiority in the conference this year, have lost five combined games already.
And yet, the ACC has its best average SP+ rating in years.
Average SP+ rating by conference:
1. SEC (11.6)
2. Big Ten (11.5)
3. ACC (9.5)
4. Big 12 (8.6)
5. Pac-12 (4.6)
6. AAC (0.1)
7. Mountain West (-1.7)
8. Conference USA (-6.6)
9. Sun Belt (-6.6)
10. MAC (-7.4)
North Carolina charged back up to ninth in SP+ after an easy win over Duke, and Pitt, which hasn't finished in the SP+ top 15 since 1983, is up to 13th. But the primary reason for the overall improvement is actual, honest-to-goodness depth. Not only are there six ACC teams in the top 40, but there is also only one worse than 65th. (The Big Ten has two such teams, the SEC three.)
This is only so much of a consolation for the fact that the league probably won't be getting a team in the CFP this year. (Wake Forest remains unbeaten, but the Demon Deacons' odds of winning out are minuscule.) But the shift, the behind-the-scenes improvement, is noteworthy and could portend a positive bowl season for the conference.
The "I'm not falling for it, Bo Nix" list
Bo Nix. Auburn's quarterback, the subject of a quarterback controversy just a week earlier, was at his wheelingest and dealingest on Saturday night in Death Valley, escaping impossible pressure on multiple opportunities, making some wild decisions and leading the Tigers to their first road win over LSU since 1999.
It was a glorious adrenaline rush, and for entertainment's sake, here's to hoping he provides a few more moments and games like that. But Georgia's defense is on deck. Let's just say a renewed quarterback controversy seven days from now wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world.