We're a month into the 2021 college football season, and 26 FBS teams remain undefeated. Ten of them play each other in five huge Week 5 matchups -- Ole Miss at Alabama, Arkansas at Georgia, Cincinnati at Notre Dame, Iowa at Maryland, Baylor at Oklahoma State -- and four more face by far their biggest tests of the season to date (Boston College, Kentucky, Michigan and Wake Forest).
It's quite the weekend, in other words. Week 5 will separate quite a bit of wheat from chaff and give us a heck of a lot to keep track of. Let's talk about the biggest questions and storylines to follow.
All times listed below are Eastern, and all games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
What makes Ole Miss' offense so good?
No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Scoring 40 on Alabama is generally a feat reserved for royalty. Of the 13 teams to do it in Nick Saban's 14-plus years in Tuscaloosa, five went on to either win or play for the national title, while others had either Johnny Manziel, Gus Malzahn's early-tenure Auburn magic or one of the most talented skill corps in recent college football history (2020 Florida).
Three others were Ole Miss. The Rebels went for 43 points in both 2015 and 2016, splitting a pair of nail-biters, and last fall, with former Saban offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin -- the co-author of Alabama's incredible mid-2010s identity shift -- in charge, they did the deed again. They were tied at 42-42 with maybe the greatest Crimson Tide team ever before finally succumbing, 63-48. Kiffin learned everything Saban hated to try to defend during his time in Alabama, then used it all against him last year.
Kiffin's 2021 offense has a chance to be the school's best in 60 years. The Rebels currently rank fifth in offensive SP+, having torched their first three opponents for an average of 7.7 yards per play and 53 points per game. Have they played the stiffest level of competition? Not in the slightest; Louisville's No. 99 defense, per SP+, is the best they've faced to date. But they've got Kiffin and quarterback Matt Corral, they've got proof of concept thanks to last year's game, and they've had a bye week to prepare. They're going to throw some haymakers. If a few of them land, the Tide could be in for their second huge challenge in three weeks.
Three things have made Ole Miss' attack so devastating in 2021: playmaking, efficiency and control.
1. Playmaking. After they lost the explosive Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah -- a duo that accounted for 324 yards against Alabama last year -- it was fair to wonder if the Rebels' explosiveness would abate. It hasn't yet.
Corral's three primary receivers -- Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders -- have combined for 43 catches, 762 yards (17.7 per catch) and nine touchdowns. They stretch your defense horizontally and vertically, and then someone from the running back trio of Jerrion Ealy, Henry Parrish Jr. and Snoop Conner (6.3 yards per carry among them) charges through wide-open running lanes. Corral can scramble as well: Not including sacks, he has rushed 27 times for 205 yards.
2. Efficiency. Facing a Saban defense when you're behind schedule is, historically, a scary task, and that remains true in 2021 -- Bama has two devastating pass-rushers (outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr. and end Phidarian Mathis) and two sticky and aggressive corners (Josh Jobe and Jalyn Armour-Davis).
Things could certainly go south for Ole Miss in front of a hostile Bryant-Denny Stadium crowd, but thus far in 2021, the Rebels simply haven't fallen behind schedule. They rank third in success rate and have gone three-and-out only 13% of the time (sixth fewest in FBS). They keep defenses on the back foot.
3. Control. Corral has dialed down the risk a bit in 2021. For all we know, Ole Miss has been saving its deep shots for Alabama, but to date Corral has thrown only 12% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield (down from 17% in 2020), and his average air yardage per pass has sunk from 9.9 to 8.1.
He has also avoided the middle of the field, the riskiest and most rewarding area to attack. He threw 28% of his passes between the hashes in 2020, completing 75% at 15.6 yards per completion, but he also threw interceptions 4.3% of the time. Through three 2021 games, he has thrown only 15% of his passes between the hashes. He also hasn't thrown a pick.
We'll see how Corral's tendencies change if the Tide slow down the Ole Miss run game and knock the Rebels off schedule. We'll also see if the Rebels' offense actually matters, or if Bryce Young and the improving Bama attack simply overwhelm the Ole Miss defense with their own prowess. But you need loads of offensive firepower to challenge the Tide, and the Rebels have it.
Arkansas-Georgia will be decided in the trenches
No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (noon, ESPN/ESPN App)
If Bama-Ole Miss is going to be defined by quarterback play and explosions, Arkansas-Georgia will be defined by, as legendary broadcaster Keith Jackson so lovingly called them, the big uglies. Both Kirby Smart's Bulldogs and Sam Pittman's Razorbacks control the line of scrimmage with aplomb. And line play could be doubly important considering both teams' uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The run-up to this game, Arkansas' first top-10 vs. top-10 battle since 2011, has been dominated by talk of quarterback injuries. Arkansas' KJ Jefferson briefly left the Hogs' stirring 20-10 win over Texas A&M with a knee injury last week and has evidently been limited in practice this week. (So has big-play receiver Treylon Burks.) Georgia's JT Daniels already missed a game with an oblique injury and is now evidently dealing with a lat issue.
Before the injury, Jefferson had stunned an aggressive A&M defense with downfield passing. Arkansas hadn't taken many deep shots in 2021, but in the first half against the Aggies he went 6-for-11 with two touchdowns and completions of 85, 48, 23, 21 and 21 yards.
A&M's defensive front is stellar, and Arkansas scored only three points after halftime. But the Hogs were still able to move the chains enough to play keep-away (second-half time of possession: 19:56) and run out the clock. Their offensive line won its battle for the most part, and their defensive line dominated. A&M's Isaiah Spiller gained 67 yards on a single, long touchdown run, but he and Devon Achane managed just 52 yards in 16 other carries, and the Hogs sacked quarterback Zach Calzada three times and mostly limited him to quick throws.
Pittman is an offensive line coach to his core, and in Kendal Briles (offense) and Barry Odom (defense), he has coordinators who can combine physicality with the modern touches of today's college football. But now comes the ultimate test. Arkansas was excellent in the trenches in September, but Georgia was downright unplayable.
Georgia's defense has been just about perfect so far. The Dawgs have allowed 23 total points in four games. They rank first in both rushing and passing success rate allowed. They have stopped 26% of run plays at or behind the line of scrimmage (14th) and have sacked the quarterback on 13% of pass attempts (fifth). If your quarterback manages to get the pass off, it's probably going to be short (7.5 air yards on average) and inaccurate (46% completion rate, second-lowest in FBS). If your running back gets beyond the line of scrimmage, he isn't getting much farther than that -- backs are averaging 3.4 yards per carry against the Dawgs (14th).
As important as it is for Arkansas to get points on the board, it might be as important for the Hogs to simply move the chains a couple of times before punting and at worst keep the field position battle even. It's hard to imagine Arkansas playing particularly well from behind against this defense, and if the Dawgs can tilt the field and wait -- or if they attempt and land some surprising deep shots, as they did early against UAB -- this might not be much of a game. But if the sumo battle is a stalemate, and Odom's defense can force some risks from Daniels (or whoever ends up at QB), Sanford Stadium could get awfully tense.
Count the big plays in South Bend
No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC)
Judging solely by national title considerations, Cincinnati's December 2009 trip to Pittsburgh was the biggest game in school history. Brian Kelly's fifth-ranked Bearcats held off the No. 14 Panthers 45-44 in one of the best games of the 21st century, one replete with snowflakes, long touchdowns and two late lead changes (plus a key blocked PAT). It bumped Cincy to third in the BCS rankings, and if officials hadn't put one second back on the clock in the Big 12 championship that night, Cincinnati would have likely played Alabama for the national title.
By those standards, the second-most important game in Cincinnati history kicks off early Saturday afternoon -- and with Kelly on the opposition sideline (next to former Cincy defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman), no less. May it live up to the standard of 2009.
Cincinnati entered 2021 with the best shot a Group of 5 team has had at a CFP bid since Houston in 2016. The Bearcats finished in the top 10 last fall, brought back most of their key players and happened to have scheduled road trips to Indiana and Notre Dame in nonconference play. Granted, Indiana's early-season struggles mean that Cincy won't get credit for a top-25 win following its 38-24 victory two weeks ago -- it's funny how the goalposts always move for G5 teams, huh? -- but in unbeaten Notre Dame, a CFP participant in two of the past three seasons, the Bearcats have a grand opportunity to make noise. And if other conference races play out as projected, with quite a few multiple-loss champions, a 13-0 Cincinnati might have a genuinely strong case for a top-four spot.
Figuring out the winner in this one could be as easy as counting the big plays. That goes for all games to a degree, but with the inefficiency levels that both defenses create, and the inefficiency Notre Dame's offense has suffered thus far, it might be doubly true here.
Notre Dame remained unbeaten last week thanks to a creative batch of explosive plays against Wisconsin. The Irish managed just a 36% success rate and 3.5 yards per play against a top-five Badgers defense, but they scored 31 fourth-quarter points on just 60 offensive yards thanks to a Chris Tyree kick-return score, two short-field scoring drives off of turnovers and two pick-sixes. This was not the most sustainable recipe in the world, but it did the trick, and the Irish somehow won comfortably, 41-13.
Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder is a dangerous and accomplished quarterback and probably won't hand Notre Dame four turnovers in 11 minutes like Wisconsin's Graham Mertz did. The Irish might have to rely on more traditional big plays against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is just aggressive enough that miscues could give the likes of Kyren Williams, Tyree and receivers Kevin Austin Jr. and Avery Davis downfield opportunities. Then again, UC also ranks seventh in the country in tackle success rate -- the Bearcats have missed just 15 tackles all season -- and Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan has been limited in practice because of an ankle injury. Opportunities therefore might still be at a premium.
Breakdowns have become far less common for Notre Dame's defense, too. After allowing 5.8 yards per play and 13 gains of 20-plus yards in their first two games, the Irish have allowed only 4.5 per play and eight 20-plus gainers since. Freeman likes to ramp up the aggressiveness, and after some early glitches, the Irish are up to 15th in success rate allowed. Players such as linebacker JD Bertrand have joined all-world safety Kyle Hamilton in the playmaking department.
They'll get tested by the Cincinnati skill corps. Running back Jerome Ford is averaging 6.0 yards per carry -- 3.9 after first contact -- and the receiver superfecta of Alec Pierce, Michael Young Jr., Jadon Thompson and Tyler Scott has averaged more than 18 yards per catch. It's not likely that we'll see a lot of eight- or 10-play drives in this game. Count the explosions.
Speaking of explosions, watch Arizona State-UCLA
Arizona State at No. 20 UCLA (10:30 p.m., FS1)
Few teams have more raw upside than Arizona State and UCLA, and both showed up in this week's SP+ top 10 because of it. They have each suffered frustrating losses due to miscues: ASU outgained BYU by 1.5 yards per play but lost 27-17 because of four turnovers, while UCLA averaged 7.5 yards per play against Fresno State but allowed eight gains of 20-plus yards and fell 40-37. But no game this side of Alabama-Ole Miss boasts more fireworks potential.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels and backs Rachaad White, Daniyel Ngata and, when healthy, DeaMonte Trayanum give the Sun Devils one of the scariest backfields in the country. The ASU defense ranks third in havoc rate as well -- TFLs, passes defensed and forced fumbles per play -- thanks to players such as lineman D.J. Davidson and linebackers Darien Butler and Kyle Soelle.
UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the most vibes-heavy quarterback in the country -- when things are good, they're great, and when things are bad, they're horrible -- was back at practice as normal following a Saturday arm injury, and his supporting cast might have even more potential than Daniels'. Backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown are averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and the trio of Kyle Philips, Kam Brown and tight end Greg Dulcich averages 20.6 yards per catch. The defense ranks fifth in blitzes per dropback and 26th in run stuff rate. The Bruins force the issue, even if it means getting burned.
The winner of this highly volatile game will both become the de facto Pac-12 South favorite and keep its slight CFP hopes alive.
Big Ten Eliminator Saturday
Of those 26 unbeaten teams mentioned above, five reside in the Big Ten, four in an East Division that boasts five SP+ top-30 teams. Four huge conference games will help straighten out the field in this crowded conference race.
No. 5 Iowa at Maryland (Friday, 8 p.m., FS1). Maryland is 4-0 and has risen to 24th in SP+ thanks to playmaking on both offense and defense. Iowa is also unbeaten and well established in the polls, but the Hawkeyes' offense has made only an occasional appearance since Week 1. Can quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland keep their early form going? If so, this weekend could begin with a pretty significant upset.
No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin (noon, Fox). While this might have lost some luster with Wisconsin's late implosion against Notre Dame, it still represents the biggest test yet for Jim Harbaugh's unbeaten Wolverines -- Michigan has lost to the Badgers by a combined 84-25 the past two years, and Wisconsin still has a top-five defense.
No. 11 Ohio State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Ohio State looked like the bully it's supposed to be against Akron last week, spotting the Zips a 7-0 lead, then scoring the next 59 points (and with its backup QB, no less). Rutgers has the best defense the Buckeyes have faced, but we'll see if the Scarlet Knights have the offensive weapons to punish what has been a shaky OSU defense.
Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App). This one's a rematch of one of the best and wildest games of 2020, but the two programs have moved in opposite directions this year. Indiana has fallen from 28th to 61st in SP+, while Penn State has climbed from 10th to fifth. Is this a revenge-game pounding after last year's 36-35 IU win, or does an Indiana rebound begin?
Week 5 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 13 BYU at Utah State (9 p.m., CBSSN). BYU beat Utah for the first time since 2009 in September; can the Cougars keep an explosive USU offense in check and secure the unofficial Utah state title?
Early Saturday
Louisville at No. 24 Wake Forest (12:30 p.m., ESPN3/ESPN App). Two years ago, Wake Forest was 5-0 and 19th in the AP poll when Louisville came to town and took the Deacs down in a 62-59 thriller. No neutral observer would complain if another 121-pointer ensued.
Saturday afternoon
No. 3 Oregon at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App). Stanford's Tanner McKee is completing 68% of his passes and hasn't thrown an interception yet. Can he pick apart an Oregon defense that has been pretty bend-don't-break thus far?
No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Over the past two calendar years, OU is 0-2 against K-State and 17-1 against everyone else in the Big 12. This is the Sooners' first conference road game since announcing they were leaving for the SEC -- can they overcome a particularly hostile environment and turn the tables on the Wildcats?
Saturday evening
No. 10 Florida at Kentucky (6 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App). Over the past two weeks, Florida has jumped to fourth in SP+ and Kentucky has tried to lose to both Chattanooga and South Carolina. The Wildcats are physical and unique, but they need a quick turnaround to have a chance.
No. 21 Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma State (7 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App). A potential Big 12 eliminator of sorts. Both teams are 4-0, OSU is coming off of its best performance of the year, and Baylor just knocked off Iowa State.
Boston College at No. 25 Clemson (7:30 p.m., ACCN/ESPN App). Clemson is favored by 15.5 points but hasn't yet scored more than 14 points in regulation against an FBS opponent. Until the offense finds its footing, the losses could continue.
Northwestern at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., BTN). Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, eight Wildcats-Huskers games have been decided by one score, one by a Hail Mary. It's one of our most reliable "it might not be good, but it's gonna be dramatic!" games.
Late Saturday
No. 22 Auburn at LSU (9 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App). This series has given us the earthquake game and Flynn-to-Byrd, four of their past five games have gone down to the wire, and this is a VERY late kickoff in Death Valley. What more could you possibly need to know?
FCS: No. 4 Montana at No. 6 Eastern Washington (10:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App). Say hello to #BigSkyAfterDark. Eastern Washington's Eric Barriere is averaging 425 passing yards and four touchdowns per game, but Montana has allowed only three TDs all year. This one's going to be dynamite.