Intro by Doug Kezirian
Top-ranked Alabama is laying 14.5 points for Saturday's home clash with Lane Kiffin and No. 12 Ole Miss, and it will have the highest total (likely 80) the SEC has seen in more than two decades of conference play. Last year, they combined for 111 points in a 63-48 Crimson Tide win, and this year could see a similar shootout.
"Ole Miss can cause most of the same problems for Alabama that Florida's running game did, but Ole Miss will do it at a much faster tempo and is more dangerous throwing the ball. I see the Rebels scoring a minimum of 35 points," analytics guru Brad Edwards told ESPN. Edwards also just authored, "Dynasty By the Numbers," a book which profiles Alabama's dominance during the Nick Saban era.
Both starting quarterbacks, Bryce Young and Matt Corral, are Heisman Trophy betting co-favorites at +180. The Rebels rank first in the nation in most offensive categories, including points and yards per game. Although the Tide are more than two-touchdown favorites, Edwards called this a "toss -up," in terms of who will win. "I think it's a bad matchup for Bama," Edwards said.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (12-11 overall, 5-2 last week), Bill Connelly (11-9, 2-3), Tyler Fulghum (3-2, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (9-7, 3-0) and David M. Hale (4-6, 2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's best bets
No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5, 47.5) at Maryland Terrapins, 8 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: If you haven't been paying attention, Maryland is surprisingly nasty this season. The Terrapins enter October 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with a credible win over West Virginia under their belts thanks, in part, to the stellar quarterback play of Taulia Tagovailoa, who is completing an absurd 75.5% of his passes this season with 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Capital One Field is going to be rocking Friday night for the first big Terrapins football game in God knows how long. That's troubling news for an Iowa program that is severely lacking in explosive plays on offense. Take note that the Hawkeyes have undefeated Penn State on deck, so this matchup does fall into the category of a "look-ahead spot."
Pick: Maryland +3.5
Fulghum: Iowa is an under machine I want to keep riding. Built on the strength of its defense and dominating the line of scrimmage, Kirk Ferentz's bunch is a perfect 4-0 to the under this season. Not to be outdone, Mike Locksley is 9-5 to the under at home since taking over at Maryland.
Pick: Under 47.5
Saturday's best bets
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-18.5, 48.5), noon ET on ESPN
Fortenbaugh: The Razorbacks were ultra impressive in their 20-10 win over Texas A&M last Saturday, but that's just the tip of a four-week iceberg featuring upcoming dates with Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn. If Arkansas thought it was tough to score on the Aggies, wait until Saturday's road showdown against a Georgia defense that is currently permitting an average of just 5.7 points per game and 3.1 yards per play. The Bulldogs boast the nastiest defensive unit in the country and, coming off a marquee win over a highly regarded opponent, I expect the Razorbacks to struggle on offense. However, Sam Pittman's crew does lay claim to a very underrated defense that is allowing just 14.5 points per game, so look for this one to start slow before potentially ramping up in the second half.
Pick: First half under 25.5 points
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels (-20, 72.5), Noon ET on ESPN2
Kezirian: I have had a difficult time reading this UNC squad but I do believe the defense is somewhat limited. QB Sam Howell and the offense have a high ceiling but the other side of the ball has issues. That should enable Duke to keep this game inside the number. David Cutcliffe has been getting it done with smoke and mirrors and on paper, the Blue Devils should not be able to compete with UNC but he always finds a way. Maybe he will use the entire play clock for every single snap like he did in 2016 against Louisville, limiting Lamar Jackson's opportunities. If there is a way, Cutcliffe usually finds it.
Pick: Duke +20
Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-3, 65), noon ET on SECN
Fulghum: Both of these middling SEC teams are 2-2 this season, but when you peel back the curtain a bit, you'll see a much stronger profile for Mizzou. The Vols' two losses are a tough one to Pitt at home (41-34) and a blowout loss in The Swamp to Florida (38-14). The Tigers lost at Kentucky by seven and in OT at Boston College. The Wildcats and the Eagles are a combined 8-0 this season. The Tigers should be able to keep the Vols at arm's length in Columbia, Missouri, albeit in a high-scoring game because neither team has a particularly stout defense.
Pick: Missouri -3, over 65
USC Trojans (-7.5, 51) at Colorado Buffaloes, 2 ET
Kezirian: USC is enduring a shaky season, including firing its head coach, but these are two teams with vastly different rosters. Colorado ranks dead last in the entire country by averaging 6.7 points and 191 yards of total offense against FBS teams. The Buffs have been outscored 75-20 by three FBS opponents, and I am unsure how that pattern changes. I imagine the altitude will pose an issue for USC and Colorado should hang around for a bit but ultimately, I think USC wins this my double digits.
Pick: USC -7.5
No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5, 79.5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: All aboard the Lane Train! This showdown opened as high as Alabama -20 before early money crashed the number all the way down to -14.5. Why? For starters, Ole Miss and Heisman Trophy favorite Matt Corral have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and currently boast an offense that is averaging a ridiculous 52.6 points per game and 7.5 yards per play (tied for second in NCAA). Further, I think Lane Kiffin is more than up for this challenge. In his first year at Ole Miss in 2020, with a global pandemic shortening both his recruiting and spring practice periods, he still gave Alabama all it could handle in a 63-48 loss. This Rebels team is better, but I don't think we can say the same thing about the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Ole Miss +14.5
Kezirian: I love everything about this situation. First and foremost, Ole Miss is off a bye. They will enter Tuscaloosa with two pure weeks of focus and preparation with offensive guru Lane Kiffin leading the charge. Alabama is an elite team and possibly the nation's best but the Tide do have vulnerabilities. Frankly, every defense has vulnerabilities when facing this type of offense. The Rebels should be able to move the ball with success, as I do believe Matt Corral is a top-notch QB. He arrived in college as one of the nation's top recruits and Kiffin has unlocked his skills. The spread feels too high but Bama is also an offensive power so I just feel more comfortable isolating Mississippi's team total.
Pick: Ole Miss team total over 32.5 points
No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes (-15, 58) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET
Hale: Last week, we liked Michigan to cover a big number based exclusively on Rutgers' impossibly lucky start to the season -- which included wins over bad teams, aided by a bunch of takeaways and virtually no explosive plays. Well, we had the Rutgers part right. The Scarlet Knights managed just 352 yards and 13 points. We just overestimated Michigan's ability to score.
That won't be an issue for Ohio State. The Buckeyes' offense has been clicking all season. The problem is whether Ohio State can stop anyone -- and Rutgers is here to give Kerry Coombs' unit a confidence boost.
Rutgers is 4-0 ATS this season. This cannot last. Here's to reality setting in Saturday.
Pick: Ohio State -15
Troy Trojans at South Carolina Gamecocks (-7, 44), 3:30 p.m. ET
Hale: South Carolina has not topped 20 points in three games vs. FBS opponents this year. Troy just lost to ULM. Neither team has much of an offense, and both can play a little defense. Troy hasn't hit the total in its past three, and seven of the past eight Trojans road games have gone under. Meanwhile, South Carolina's past five nonconference games have also gone under. It's hard to see both teams topping 20 in this one.
Pick: Under 44
Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5, 52.5) at Kansas State Wildcats, 3:30 ET
Kezirian: We have seen absolutely nothing from Oklahoma to suggest it is capable of covering double digits on the road in conference play. However, sometimes winning wagers requires one to anticipate and take risks, and I this is an example of that. The Sooners desperately need a change of scenery to wake them up, and Saturday will be their first road game this season. Lincoln Riley already has demonstrated he is quite skilled and I think we see OU's best performance. I also don't trust Kansas State all that much to keep this competitive for four quarters. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler is limited but he should be okay against K-State. The advanced line was 23 so 10.5 just feels like way too much of an adjustment. Although Oklahoma has looked shaky, I just think the spot favors the Sooners.
Pick: Oklahoma -10.5
Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes (-16.5, 56), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: This one's a little tricky because of Kent State's tempo. If the Golden Flashes find a per-play advantage, they're going to maximize it. And after an utterly brutal nonconference slate that featured road trips to Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland (combined score of opponent 108, KSU 33), they could be looking to take out some frustration.
I'm picking Bowling Green, then, simply because I think the Falcons are pretty good. At least, they're good by recent BGSU standards. They've overachieved by 17.6 points per game against the spread so far and by 14.6 against SP+ projections, which do have Kent winning, but by an average of only 5.3 points. That's a huge, downright confusing amount of cushion between projection and spread.
Pick: Bowling Green +16.5
Army Black Knights (-7.5, 47) at Ball State Cardinals, 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: The uniqueness of the Army football program -- the slow tempo, the ability to constantly convert third-and-5s (if not on third down, then on fourth), the ability to shrink a game to about 10 possessions per team, the propensity for winning close games (3-1 in one-score games in 2020-21, 10-3 during its brilliant 2017-18 run) -- makes the Black Knights a hard read for SP+. It often sells them short, thinking a team can't do what Army does over a long period of time.
When it actually picks Army against the spread, then, good things tend to happen. It's 5-2 ATS when picking Army in 2020-21, and it's projecting a pretty easy Black Knights win -- average score of 36.5 to 19.6 -- over a Ball State team that has yet to cover this season. Army is overachieving SP+ projections by 8.2 points per game, and BSU is underachieving them by 10.7. Crazy things happen, but BSU covering would indeed be pretty surprising.
Pick: Army -7.5
Fortenbaugh: Same drill as last week, folks. The 4-0 freight train known as the Army Black Knights is currently averaging a monster 344.5 rushing yards per game (second in NCAA) and is set to face a brutal Ball State run defense that is permitting an average of 5.3 yards per carry (107th). If Army is free to do what it wants on offense, the Knights not only will have plenty of success scoring, but they'll also keep their defense rested on the sideline. After all, that triple-option offense is currently averaging 40 minutes and 29 seconds per game in time of possession, which ranks first in the country. Good luck to the Cardinals, who are averaging just 17 points per game and haven't covered a spread all season.
Pick: Army -7.5
No. 10 Florida Gators (-8, 55) at Kentucky Wildcats, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Connelly: I really want to believe in Kentucky. Mark Stoops' building job has been fun to follow through the years, the Wildcats have the run game one expects from them, Wan'Dale Robinson is a welcome new addition to the skill corps, they make more big plays than they allow, their special-teams unit is pretty good ... there seems like a lot to like.
They also beat Chattanooga and South Carolina by only a combined 11 points. Quarterback Will Levis' passer rating has gone from 230.9 to 146.3 to 134.1 to 98.0 over four games. Early returns seem to be diminishing on offense, and now the best offense the Wildcats have faced, by far, comes to town. Florida has quickly earned the trust that Kentucky is going to lose, not only because the Gators nearly beat Alabama, but also because they followed that up with a sturdy performance (and easy win) against a Tennessee team that is better than some think. They're third in offensive SP+, and while Kentucky will make some stops, I don't think it will make nearly enough.
Pick: Florida -8
Indiana Hoosiers at No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (-12, 53.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Hale: We all remember what happened a year ago. Penn State struggled out of the gate in its delayed 2020 opener. Michael Penix delivered one miracle after another, including that stretch for the end zone that proved to be the game winner. Penn State went on to lose its first five games, and Indiana became one of the surprises of the season.
Here's what people don't remember: absolutely everything went Indiana's way in that game. Penn State was playing without several key players after a strange offseason, turned the ball over three times, missed two field goals and turned the ball over on downs at the Indiana 27. Indiana won, but Penn State was the better team.
In fact, here's the most telling stat: Penn State outgained Indiana by 277 yards. In the playoff era, teams that outgain their opposition by 250 to 300 yards are 134-11. Their average margin of victory is 27 points. That Penn State didn't win in a blowout is shocking. That the Nittany Lions lost is incredible.
This year, Indiana is a tick worse than it looked in 2020, and Penn State is better. But that's hardly even the point. All Penn State needs is to play a game that looks more or less like last year's but catch a few breaks instead of missing out on one chance after another, and the Nittany Lions will cover the 12 with ease.
Pick: Penn State -12
Connelly: I'm making the same pick for the same reasons that David listed. It took a lot of (incredibly entertaining) funkiness for IU to win last year, and the Hoosiers have been playing quite a bit worse in 2021, while PSU has been quite a bit better. Penn State isn't a perfect team by any means -- the Nittany Lions don't run the ball nearly as well as expected, and the offense isn't trustworthy on third downs yet -- but they've certainly been two touchdowns better than Indiana thus far.
Pick: Penn State -12
Air Force Falcons (-10.5, 46.5) at New Mexico Lobos, 7:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: Air Force is basically about 15 minutes away from being unbeaten this year. The Falcons led Utah State by 11 midway through the third quarter but ended up losing 49-45 due to a string of long touchdowns. They've kept three other opponents -- Lafayette, Navy and FAU -- at arm's reach, and there's really no proof that New Mexico is any better than Navy or FAU.
The Lobos are playing pretty good defense, but the offense is not only failing a lot, but failing quickly. The defense has been facing over 14 drives per game, and for a batch of possessions per game, it loses its edge. UTEP scored on back-to-back third-quarter possessions to turn a 13-3 UNM lead into a 20-13 loss. New Mexico State scored on three of four drives as well at one point to keep that rivalry game closer than it should have been.
Air Force is much better than either UTEP or NMSU. SP+ projects an 11.8-point Air Force win, which isn't that far away from the spread, but I just don't see UNM scoring nearly enough to stay within single digits.
Pick: Air Force -10.5