There are certain games on every team's schedule that provide clear markers of progress. For Michigan, this week's trip to Wisconsin was always going to be that game in 2021.
Michigan's pre-Wisconsin performance hasn't been irrelevant. The Wolverines couldn't afford to lose their first four games, all at home, where they failed to win in three tries last season.
Michigan's problems under coach Jim Harbaugh have occurred away from home, against formidable foes. And no opponent has humbled the Wolverines like Wisconsin the past two seasons. The aggregate score: 84-25 Wisconsin. The aggregate yardage: 955-518.
While Michigan's struggles against Ohio State go back further -- and cover multiple coaching tenures -- there are also inherent reasons for them. Wisconsin doesn't hold the same talent edge over Michigan that Ohio State does, which makes the Badgers' recent dominance both more concerning for Michigan and more important to reverse.
Wisconsin is the ultimate prove-it game for Michigan. Despite a scare last week against Rutgers, the Wolverines have looked great so far, winning their games by a combined score of 161-47. Wisconsin, meanwhile, sits at 1-2 for the first time since 2001. There are reasons to believe this Michigan team, especially on offense, is primed to turn a corner and challenge for its first Big Ten East Division title.
But none of it will matter if the Wolverines lose to Wisconsin.
Here's a closer look at Michigan and six other undefeated teams facing prove-it games this week, what has worked for them and what still needs improvement to keep the wins coming.
No. 14 Michigan (4-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday at Wisconsin
A mostly new defensive coaching staff and an even stronger commitment to the run have given Michigan different looks on both sides of the ball. For the most part, the changes are helping.
Previous defensive coordinator Don Brown had an excellent run until recent years, when teams like Wisconsin exposed weak spots in his ultra-aggressive scheme and the players tasked with executing it. New coordinator Mike Macdonald, whom Harbaugh plucked from his brother John's Baltimore Ravens staff, has installed a more nuanced system, especially on third down.
Michigan is allowing third-down conversions on 38.1% of attempts, which is average but an improvement from 46.2% conversions in 2020.
"Coach Brown was multiple on first and second down, and I would say that most of the multiplicity with Coach Macdonald comes on third down," Rutgers offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson told ESPN last week. "You feel the weight of what Don Brown did on third down with Coach Macdonald. They're very complex, like the Ravens."
Gleeson and other coaches who faced Michigan highlighted defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who has shined since returning from a fractured leg suffered in 2020. Hutchinson leads the Big Ten in sacks with 5.5, and has been a constant presence in opposing backfields. The increased flexibility in Macdonald's system has helped the 6-foot-6, 265-pound senior.
"Don Brown had a great scheme, but you knew where [Hutchinson] was," an FBS coordinator said. "He had his one bull-rush move, but that was kind of it. Now he's moving around, he's in space, he's in a two-point [stance], he's a lot more active than he's been in the past. That's a good plan for that kid. You can have protections for him, and then, OK, he's not lined up here?
"When he wins one-on-one, it's going to be hard."
Coaches also like Michigan's safety tandem of Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins who, along with a solid front seven, help compensate for cornerbacks who are "kind of average," a coach said. Then again, Michigan's pass coverage doesn't need to be stellar against Wisconsin.
The Wolverines' passing offense, meanwhile, could be a subplot this week. Michigan's offensive approach thus far has been run, run and then run some more, usually because there are gains to be made. But will an offense that has run on 74% of its snaps keep the same approach against the nation's leading rushing defense (25 yards per game allowed)?
"The way teams are playing us, they're going to run the ball, they're going to try to isolate DBs down the field and then throw some quick [passes]," Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard told ESPN on Monday.
Michigan's commitment to the run has stood out to Leonhard, who understands the approach from Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis.
"They have not had to force the ball down the field and really put the ball in the quarterback's hands much," he said. "That's the benefit of winning games and winning them big. I think they have more confidence in the quarterback than it appears. There's people coming out and acting like it's an issue for him. I don't think it is. They just haven't had to win a game that way yet.
"So we've got to go in there and understand that they can be a more balanced offense than they currently are. We have to force them into being that."
Blake Corum had 26 rushing attempts for 77 yards in 2020, but Michigan coaches expected big things this season from the sophomore, who has delivered. Despite being slowed a bit by Rutgers last week, Corum ranks third in the Big Ten and ninth nationally in rushing average (118.8 YPG), despite essentially splitting carries with Hassan Haskins (Corum has 69; Haskins has 61).
"He's explosive, love the way he runs," Leonhard said. "He's patient early and then he's real violent and aggressive when he makes decisions. They love to get the ball in his hands downhill."
Leonhard noted the one-sided nature of recent Wisconsin-Michigan games, as the past four (three won by Wisconsin) have been decided by an average of 24.5 points, despite "a lot of the same faces." Any Michigan win, but especially a dominant one, would instill even more confidence both within and outside the program that this year will be different. The Wolverines haven't won at Camp Randall Stadium since 2001, and their past four losses have been by an average of 18 points. Wisconsin is the first team to win four consecutive home games against Michigan by 10 points or more.
As a Michigan source recently said, "We were supposed to win the games that we won the way that we won them. We better turn it up because the preseason's freaking over."
No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday vs. No. 7 Cincinnati
After last week's win over Wisconsin, in which Notre Dame scored the final 31 points despite generating only 60 yards in the fourth quarter, coach Brian Kelly recounted how the team's identity -- unmistakable in recent years -- is more of an evolution this season.
"We hunkered down, we put three tight ends on the field, this is what we were and, you know, lived with it," Kelly said of his previous teams. "[This year] we're trying to figure it out as we go. We're in no-backs one play and then we score a touchdown. Next time, we're in three tight ends. We're trying to cobble it out as we go."
Notre Dame undoubtedly took a step against Wisconsin, an elite defensive outfit. But the Badgers also aren't the top-10/15 team many projected them to be, as their offensive woes from last season have metastasized. Cincinnati poses a much bigger challenge, and could be the best team the Irish play all season. Kelly on Monday said Cincinnati is "clearly the best team that we've played up to this point."
The Notre Dame coaches still have concern, shared both publicly and privately, about an inexperienced offensive line that has endured some injuries this fall. Wisconsin recorded six sacks and 12 tackles for loss last week, which contributed to Notre Dame finishing with 3 net rushing yards. The Irish never got going on the ground, as quarterback Jack Coan, not known for his mobility, had the team's long rush of 8 yards.
Notre Dame will need to discover some type of run game against Cincinnati, which is mediocre in rush defense (66th nationally, 138 yards per game allowed) but more athletic than Wisconsin in the secondary with All-America cornerback Ahmad Gardner and All-AAC cornerback Coby Bryant. Wide receiver Kevin Austin Jr., who reemerged against Wisconsin (76 receiving yards, two touchdowns) after a no-show the week before against Purdue, will be a key player to watch.
"He's a big-play guy for us, we needed his performance," Kelly said. "There needs to be some consistency across the board at that position, but we'll get it. We've got to do a little bit better job of shaking some guys loose in other ways."
The real intrigue Saturday will be Notre Dame defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman facing his former team. Freeman, who worked closely with Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell, seemingly has more autonomy over the Notre Dame defense, which struggled in the first two games but improved in wins over Purdue and Wisconsin (26 total points allowed, 131 total rushing yards allowed).
Notre Dame debuted a 4-4 alignment against Wisconsin, replacing a safety with a linebacker, mindful of the Badgers' heavier personnel packages and passing struggles. The Irish likely won't use the same look against Cincinnati, which attacks downfield more and has five regular pass-catchers averaging at least 13.8 yards per reception. But Freeman's willingness to experiment with coverages and personnel is notable, especially since Notre Dame comes in confident after four interceptions and two pick-sixes against Wisconsin.
"We just needed to tap the brakes early on about our defense," Kelly said. "It takes some time to get everything in, and there's layers to our defense. We've played a lot of man [coverage] early on. We've added some of our dime and nickel packages and we've got some guys making plays."
Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder will have to keep track of Notre Dame star safety Kyle Hamilton, who already has three interceptions and two pass breakups to go with 24 tackles.
"He's the real deal, really good," a Big Ten assistant said of Hamilton. "He's going to be a first-round [NFL draft] pick."
Kentucky (4-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday vs. No. 10 Florida
Mark Stoops knows Kentucky needs to turn around its turnover margin. Teams simply can't sustain success being minus-9 on the season, which ranks dead last nationally (130th) among FBS teams. Kentucky has lost six fumbles and thrown five interceptions, while gaining just two interceptions and recovering no fumbles.
Still, the Wildcats sit at 4-0, a nod to both their schedule and their talent level. Stoops has built a program that is good enough to win ugly.
"I feel like the glass is half full," Stoops told ESPN on Sunday night. "I feel like we're just barely scratching the surface offensively on what we're capable of doing. I feel like we're going to get better and better as the year goes on. We've got to get this turnover margin evened out somewhat. We have to play better in protecting the football, and as far as the other side, if balls bounce our way here and there, we'll pick up a few more turnovers."
Kentucky's offense figured to have an adjustment period with a new playcaller (coordinator Liam Coen, who came from the Los Angeles Rams) and a new quarterback (Penn State transfer Will Levis). Arguably the team's top offensive playmaker, Wan'Dale Robinson, is also a newcomer (Nebraska transfer), and provides Kentucky with "a different element," an SEC coordinator said. Stoops and the coaching staff love the strong-armed Levis, who has completed more than 65% of his attempts.
The key is ball security, as Levis has thrown an interception in each of the first four games (two in a 28-23 win over FCS Chattanooga). Wide receiver Josh Ali has two of Kentucky's lost fumbles, and running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. twice fumbled against Missouri, although one was recovered by a teammate for a touchdown.
"There's certain pieces of the offense that I'm very pleased with," Stoops said, "as far as the overall operation and being able to handle that kind of professional terminology and the shifts and the motions, and the nuances of the motions. A lot of it's been very smooth. There's really no excuse for the fumbles. We've got to get that fixed."
Kentucky begins a season-defining stretch -- Florida, LSU, Georgia -- with the Gators, who are improved on defense from 2020 and are making strides on offense behind quarterback Emory Jones. Stoops took notice of the scare Florida gave to Alabama on Sept. 18. Jones, who is completing more than 67% of his pass attempts and leads Florida with 375 rush yards, will stress a Kentucky defense allowing just 4.1 yards per play.
Led by senior end Josh Paschal, sophomore outside linebacker J.J. Weaver and others, Kentucky forced three turnovers on downs in last week's 16-10 win against South Carolina, which Stoops equates to actual turnovers. But Florida represents a much greater challenge for the Wildcats defense and their entire team.
"We have to go prove it," Stoops said. "Certainly it hasn't been all clean this year, but we do have a 4-0 record, and if you want to play in big games, you've got to handle your business that's right in front of you. So at the end of the day, it doesn't matter what it looks like at this point. We have an opportunity to play in a big game here because we've taken care of business."
Boston College (4-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday at No. 25 Clemson
Boston College's path to 4-0 is especially impressive given the injuries it has endured. Most know about quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who sustained a likely season-ending hand injury in the opener. But BC also lost arguably its top interior defensive lineman, Chibueze Onwuka, to a season-ending injury in camp, and lost starting kicker Aaron Boumerhi to a hip injury. Defensive end Marcus Valdez, a co-captain, and dynamic wide receiver Jaelen Gill made their season debuts last week against Missouri.
"A horror show of injuries to our top players," coach Jeff Hafley told ESPN on Sunday, "but our guys have been resilient. They haven't flinched."
Hafley's team doesn't want pity, nor does it make excuses. The Eagles also aren't interested in being a nice story or giving a good showing this week, as they visit Clemson for the third consecutive year. Last year, Boston College pushed Clemson in Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei's first start, but fell 34-28. Hafley sees Boston College's overtime win over Missouri as a potential turning point for the team in tight games.
"We were in these games last year and everybody was so excited that we were in them, but we lost these games," Hafley said. "[Last week] was the first time we got over the hump, that we finished one out. We'll find out about our team now. How do they handle a little bit of success? Can they look at the film hard and realize that there's a lot of things we've got to clean up, because if we don't, we're not going to have a chance down there, playing [Clemson]."
BC's physical style stood out against Missouri, as the Eagles bullied their visitors from the SEC with 275 rush yards and three touchdowns on 49 carries. Pat Garwo III, whose role in the offense has increased since Jurkovec's injury, recorded career highs for a single carry (67-yard touchdown), game rushing (175 yards) and single-game carries (25).
An experienced offensive line flexed against Missouri, and now takes on a Clemson team that lost sophomore tackle Bryan Bresee to a season-ending knee injury.
"Are we the most talented team? Probably not," Hafley said. "But our guys play together and they play hard and they don't worry about the score. That O-line is a bunch of tough guys who have played a lot of football, but it goes even deeper than that. In the team meeting, I showed clips of our receivers, Zay Flowers and other great players running down the field, blocking their asses off. When you do that, it sends a message to your whole team."
Hafley sees improvement from a largely new-look defense, which faces a surprisingly ineffective Clemson offense this week. BC hadn't allowed a first-half point until the Missouri game, and will look to start fast this week again.
Senior quarterback Dennis Grosel hasn't stretched the field much since replacing Jurkovec, averaging 7.5 yards per completion. But Boston College's receiving corps, led by Flowers, will get Clemson's attention.
"He's not one of these little guys who can only do bubble screens and jet sweeps," Hafley said of Flowers. "He can run the whole route tree. You've got to know where he's at. And we've got some good young wide receivers."
Baylor (4-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday at No. 19 Oklahoma State
The Bears have already proved they're a much better team than the 2020 version, which struggled with COVID-19 issues and a transition to a new coaching staff. Last week, they took down Iowa State, a 2020 Big 12 runner-up that ranked No. 7 in the preseason. But ISU also clearly isn't the team projected to contend for a Playoff spot, and Baylor won despite some startling numbers.
The offense generated only three points in the second half (the team's only touchdown came on a kickoff return), and generated only 4 net yards on nine plays in the fourth quarter. Baylor had sizable deficits in total yards (479-282) and first downs (27-15), and drew nine penalties to ISU's three.
"Trying to get over the penalty hump, that first game was not very good [11 penalties against Texas State], the last two we've been a lot better and then it bit us again [Saturday]," Baylor coach Dave Aranda told ESPN on Sunday night. "But I like our team. Guys are going, 'It's good we won, but we could play a lot better and need to play a lot better. I feel like I almost let the team down with how I played, and I'm going to come out better.' That's the whole talk."
Baylor will need to play better Saturday at Oklahoma State, which also scored a win over a ranked opponent (Kansas State) in league play last week. Aranda likes the direction on offense under new coordinator Jeff Grimes and a close-knit staff. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon, a first-year starter, has been steady, completing 73% of his passes for 823 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and adding four rushing touchdowns. Bohanon didn't put up huge numbers against ISU (159 pass yards, 37 rush yards) but accounted for three touchdowns and zero turnovers against a difficult 3-3-5 defense that many are trying to replicate.
"One of Gerry's biggest strengths has been his ability to see what the coverage is prior to the ball being snapped," Aranda said. "Here's a game where it's the exact opposite, and he was able to get his eyes in the right spot, see that it was three-deep, see that it was [Cover 4] and put the ball where it needs to be. It's just way cool to see. All the guys see that, too, and their confidence in him and with us grows daily."
Bohanon will see another complex defense at Oklahoma State under coordinator Jim Knowles, with whom Aranda has swapped ideas over the years. Baylor also will lean on its own defense, which has been active against the pass (four interceptions, 10 breakups).
A knee injury to star linebacker Terrel Bernard, who had a scope Monday morning, puts more responsibility on All-Big 12 safety Jalen Pitre. The senior already has five tackles for loss, an interception and a forced fumble this season. Aranda sees Pitre reflected former LSU standouts Donte Jackson, Jamal Adams and Grant Delpit, who thrived at the same position in his defense.
"Pitre has a lot of those intangibles," Aranda said. "There's kind of a sense of football, anticipating, calling out plays. There's a fair amount of alpha inside of him, so it's good to have him on our side."
Ole Miss (3-0)
Prove-it game: Saturday at No. 1 Alabama
I wrote last week about Ole Miss as a rebound team, and the Rebels certainly could be a factor in the SEC West. But until Lane Kiffin takes down one of the elites, he'll still be known for fun playcalls, sound bites and tweets. There's no bigger elite than Alabama and Nick Saban.
Ole Miss is clearly the type of team that can threaten Alabama. While Saban's assistants are historically bad against their mentor, Kiffin came to Alabama with a schematic approach that Saban needed. Kiffin learned how to become a better head coach from his time with Saban, but he came and went with an independent schematic philosophy, which he has instilled at Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Matt Corral is the type of big-play, quick-strike quarterback who causes problems for Alabama, and he's surrounded with field-stretching options at wide receiver and running back.
"They're difficult to defend," Saban said Monday, "and [Corral] is about as talented a guy as anybody we've seen, run and pass, for a long time."
Ole Miss's ultimate path to a prove-it win, though, isn't by simply outscoring Alabama. The Rebels couldn't stop the Tide at all last year, and surrendered almost unfathomable totals (63 points, 37 first downs, 723 yards on 71 plays). The defense has shown improvement, albeit against weaker competition, and has incorporated new schematic principles reflected at programs such as Iowa State and Arkansas.
"Last year was a little bit of an anomaly when it came to, if you're a new staff, how do you get what you want implemented?" Saban said. "They probably went through that on defense a little bit, because of COVID. They've had a year to know what kind of adjustments they needed to make relative to the players they have, and they've done a really good job of that."
Maryland (4-0)
Prove-it game: Friday vs. No. 5 Iowa
Maryland is another team I broke down last week, and the Terrapins have looked impressive with their first 4-0 start since 2016. Their close win against West Virginia, which beat Virginia Tech and had Oklahoma on the ropes last week, should resonate as the season goes along. But Maryland has a huge opportunity this week against Iowa.
The featured matchup Friday pairs Maryland's wide receivers against an Iowa secondary that has accounted for five of the team's six interceptions. The Hawkeyes faced talented receivers from Indiana in the season opener and performed very well, but Maryland's group -- Dontay Demus Jr., Rakim Jarrett, Darryl Jones -- might be even better.
"Those receivers have opened up the whole offense," Locksley told me last week. "If people are going to key on one, it opens things up. They've really helped us in the run game."
Maryland likely will challenge Iowa downfield, but the Terrapins also might be capable of beating the Hawkeyes at their own game. The defense is allowing only 14.3 points per game with only two passing touchdowns surrendered. Maryland struggled a bit with Kent State's passing offense last week but repeatedly stepped up in the red zone, allowing only 16 points on eight trips inside its 25-yard line.
A similar approach against Iowa, which has only five touchdowns on 11 red zone trips this season, could help Maryland pull off a validating win.