The unprecedented challenges of the 2020 college football season hit some teams harder than others.
Last fall, Penn State started 0-5 for the first time in team history. Michigan State beat its archrival and a division winner, but was outscored 202-70 in its other five games. Teams, such as Kansas State, went through waves of COVID-19 outbreaks and other personnel challenges.
The circumstances in 2020 made 2021 even harder to predict. But several teams that struggled through some or all of last fall are surging to begin the season.
To be clear, three weeks of college football isn't enough to make declarative statements about anything. There's still plenty of time for 3-0 teams to crater.
"You don't know what anything means right now, it doesn't really mean s---," a coordinator from a team that now sits at 3-0 told me last week. "But sometimes you look back and say it meant a lot, too, so you just never know. It's a crazy part of the season."
This is what we know: Several 3-0 teams that struggled last year seem poised to sustain. Some might challenge for conference titles and the College Football Playoff. Others should be tough to beat the rest of the season.
After watching one of those teams live Saturday night in Happy Valley, and surveying coaches about the others, here's a look at the potential breakthrough teams of 2021 and why they can continue to win.
Penn State
2020 record: 4-5
Penn State's strong performance Saturday before an over-capacity White Out crowd (109,958) at Beaver Stadium further confirmed that things are normalizing for the program. The Nittany Lions have already outlasted Wisconsin on the road, dominated defending MAC champion Ball State and handled a talented Auburn team.
Ohio State's shaky defense and slow-starting offense seemingly has slid open the iron door in the Big Ten. Penn State, along with Iowa, could be ready to storm through.
"We have found different ways to win Week 1, Week 2, Week 3," coach James Franklin said. "Obviously, being tested early in the season like this is going to be good and helpful, and we're just going to have to build on it from there."
There are reasons to believe Penn State will build on the strong start, and contend for its first Big Ten title since 2016 and its first-ever CFP appearance. The Lions might not be elite in any phase, but they are very good in all areas and boast a ton of experience.
The defense logged 95 plays but surrendered only 10 points in the opener, denying Wisconsin on three of four red zone chances. Defensive coordinator Brent Pry bought the strength and conditioning staff and performance science staff lunch the following week.
"We didn't play many guys, about 15, 16 guys the majority of the snaps, and we had kids with 70, 80 reps," Pry told ESPN. "We never saw the fatigue. The guys had it in them, gas in the tank all the way until the end. It was obviously a confidence-builder."
The defense returned key veterans in all three areas: PJ Mustipher up front, Jaquan Brisker and Tariq Castro-Fields in the back end, and linebackers Ellis Brooks, Jesse Luketa and Brandon Smith. Penn State also "struck gold," Pry said, with transfer linemen Arnold Ebiketie (Temple) and Derrick Tangelo (Duke), both of whom are starting. Ebiketie leads PSU with 3.5 sacks, and Tanglo had a fumble recovery and a touchdown-saving tackle Saturday against Auburn.
Pry has experience everywhere, and with a fairly tight rotation, he can be more aggressive schematically, especially in the red zone.
"You've got to have a variety down there," Pry said. "We've been a heavy man [coverage] team, and we've gotten into some additional coverage packages, just having a little bit more to do on the menu. We just felt like we needed a little bit more, changing the menu up. We have it right now, and the guys are making plays down there."
Quarterback Sean Clifford is responding well after a rough 2020 season as he plays under his third offensive coordinator (Mike Yurcich) in as many years. Clifford, who threw eight interceptions during PSU's 0-5 start last season, has been picked off just once in 94 attempts through three games. He had a career-high 28 completions and just four incomplete attempts against Auburn, spreading the ball to star wideouts Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, but also a gifted tight end group of Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren.
Coaches say a big key for Clifford is footwork, as he still has to break some habits that have gotten him into trouble.
Clifford and other players cited a demanding offseason program bringing the team closer as a reason for the strong start.
"It was a crazy offseason, we grinded harder than ever," Clifford said, "because we had something to prove. Last year wasn't us. Everybody knew that. And even if you didn't, I'm hoping that we're proving it now."
Kansas State
2020 record: 4-6
Kansas State saw it all in 2020: After going 8-5 in 2019, a 4-1 start included a historic road upset of Oklahoma before five consecutive losses to end the season. The Wildcats lost quarterback Skylar Thompson to a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 3, and had COVID-19 impact their roster seemingly all summer and fall.
As a result, Kansas State entered this year with more mystery than buzz in the Big 12. But the Wildcats already own two of the better wins among conference members: A 24-7 win over Stanford in the opener and a 38-17 victory Saturday against a Nevada team seeking its second Power 5 road win of the season. The Wildcats are getting it done without Thompson, who is out indefinitely due to a knee injury but should return at some point this season.
"We've been challenged in every game and had adversity in every game," third-year coach Chris Klieman told ESPN on Saturday night. "We played fast against Stanford. Southern [Illinois] we didn't play as well, but we found a way in the fourth quarter. This [Nevada] game, we had to keep that great offense on the sideline. Had to rush the football and move the chains. We controlled the line of scrimmage."
After Thompson's injury, Klieman challenged every position group to step up, especially the two veteran lines. Kansas State rotated eight offensive linemen against Nevada, which contributed to a big day on the ground (48 attempts, 269 yards, four touchdowns). The defensive line, which can go 12 deep, helped limit a Nevada offense led by NFL quarterback prospect Carson Strong to 17 points and 14 first downs.
Klieman wanted to play larger line rotations during nonconference play to prepare for the Big 12's round-robin schedule. Although he didn't envision rotating quarterbacks, Kansas State will continue to use both Will Howard and Jaren Lewis when it opens league play at Oklahoma State. While Howard started against Nevada, Klieman is looking for greater efficiency from the position, noting that defenses will continue to load the box to stop Deuce Vaughn and the K-State run game.
"Both guys deserved the opportunity to play," Klieman said. "Will played a lot last year but Jaren's been in the program three years. The game's slowed down for him. He's finally caught up with Will as far as the general knowledge of our system. We think we can win with both guys and if we don't have Sky for an extended period, we need them ready for Big 12 play."
Oklahoma and Iowa State entered the season as heavy Big 12 favorites, but neither team has looked dominant. Klieman has beaten OU in each of his first two seasons at Kansas State.
"We knew this was going to be a struggle because of what we went through last year," Klieman said. "We still have to be able to execute at a high level, but I love the guys we have."
Ole Miss
2020 record: 5-5
The Rebels were a fun team last season, as many expected them to be under coach Lane Kiffin, but they were never a serious threat in the SEC. They piled up points against almost everyone, including Alabama, but also surrendered points in bunches, ranking 117th nationally in average points allowed (38.3 points per game). Quarterback Matt Corral could dominate games (seven games with 320 or more passing yards and two or more touchdown passes) but also implode on occasion (11 interceptions combined in losses to Arkansas and LSU).
Kiffin's second edition looks much more dangerous, and could end up as the SEC's third CFP contender behind No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia. Corral looks like a Heisman Trophy contender (997 passing yards, nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, five rushing touchdowns) and leads an offense featuring big-play threats, such as wide receivers Jonathan Mingo and Dontario Drummond, and solid backs, such as Jerrion Ealy, Snoop Conner and Henry Parrish Jr.
"They've got an elite receiver corps, Matt Corral is as good as any quarterback in the country -- he's the real deal -- and they've got really good backs," a Power 5 defensive coordinator said. "They don't have great tight ends and they've got an average O-line, but their skill is really, really good."
Ole Miss' defense is allowing fewer than 21 points per game and 31.1% of third-down conversions, while generating pressure (nine sacks) with Sam Williams and others. Like many teams looking for an edge on defense, the Rebels have studied Iowa State's 3-3-5 scheme and tried to implement certain concepts.
SEC play and especially the Oct. 2 game at Alabama will show just how far the defense has come. But the current model for reaching the CFP is elite offense and good-enough defense, and Ole Miss might have found the formula behind Corral.
"He's extremely lethal," said a defensive assistant who has faced Corral. "I think he'll be a really good pro. He's so smart, he knows where to go with the ball and he can make every throw."
Michigan State
2020 record: 2-5
MSU is 3-0 for the first time since its CFP team in 2015, and is one of two FBS teams with two road wins against Power 5 opponents (Miami, Northwestern). The Spartans are getting results on the field with a dramatically different roster. Coach Mel Tucker added 20 transfers (15 FBS, five FCS) during the offseason, seeking immediate upgrades for a team that beat Michigan and Northwestern in 2020 but was largely noncompetitive in its other games.
Running back Kenneth Walker III, a Wake Forest transfer, has made the biggest impact with 493 rushing yards and five touchdowns through the first three games. But the Spartans also are getting lifts from linebacker Quavaris Crouch (Tennessee), cornerbacks Ronald Williams (Alabama) and Chester Kimbrough (Florida), offensive tackle Jarrett Horst (Arkansas State) and others.
Any team can add transfers in the portal era, but successfully integrating them, as Michigan State has, often presents challenges. Tucker took a direct approach with the players he inherited about the players he wanted to add.
"We try to make things black and white, eliminate the gray, on how we want to do things, so that the players don't have to guess," Tucker told ESPN on Sunday. "You're either right or you're wrong, either it's good enough or it's not. We have to overcommunicate with our players. Those guys knew in order to have a good team, we've got to have more good players. So we really didn't have the animosity or the jealousy or that type of stuff going on, the hating.
"That helps a lot."
Tucker credits key holdovers from 2020 -- safety Xavier Henderson, defensive ends Drew Beesley and Jeff Pietrowski, safety Angelo Grose, running back Elijah Collins and Jordon Simmons, H-back Connor Heyward, and wide receivers Jayden Reed, Jalen Nailor and Tre Mosley -- for helping ease the influx of transfers while also improving their own play. Heyward, who opened the 2019 season as MSU's starting running back but soon entered the transfer portal only to return in early 2020, is contributing nicely in a tight end role.
"The guys that we brought back from last year's team are guys that we feel like were 100% bought in or mostly bought into the culture and our way of doing things," Tucker said. "Those guys were able to welcome those new guys. The new guys, they didn't come in with a lot of sharp elbows in the locker room."
Not every transfer Tucker brought in is starting for MSU. Quarterback Anthony Russo, who started 26 games at Temple and ranks third on the team's career passing chart (6,292 yards), competed closely with Payton Thorne, MSU's backup for most of 2020, throughout the summer.
The coaches went with Thorne, who has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions, while completing 62.3% of his attempts, in the first three games. After averaging 18 points last year, MSU has scored 38 or more in three consecutive games in the same season for the first time since 2005.
"Ball security, decision-making, better command of the offense," Tucker said of Thorne. "The last couple weeks, he's connecting on the deep balls, which adds a whole other dimension to our offense."
Arkansas
2020 record: 3-7
The Razorbacks showed clear improvement in coach Sam Pittman's first season, recording three SEC wins and losing three others by three points or fewer in a conference-only schedule. Then again, any success meant something after the program bottomed out under Chad Morris.
Many wondered whether an experienced team (21 seniors) could continue to ascend despite another taxing schedule: the SEC West, Georgia on the road and Texas in Fayetteville.
"It's intimidating," Pittman told ESPN on Monday.
While most of the gauntlet awaits, beginning this week against No. 7 Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium, Arkansas looks better on both sides of the ball after winning its first three games by an average of 25 points.
The addition of defensive line transfers Tre Williams (Missouri), Markell Utsey (Missouri) and John Ridgeway (Illinois State) has sparked a group that didn't generate a consistent pass rush in 2020 but already has seven sacks and 10 quarterback hurries. Arkansas' reworked line complements a seasoned linebacker group (Bumper Pool, Grant Morgan, Hayden Henry) and a secondary that features playmakers such as safety Jalen Catalon (two interceptions, five passes defended).
"We hit on all three portal guys," Pittman said. "This year, we're moving [quarterbacks] out of that pocket quite a little bit more than what we did last year, and that's so important, even when we go to our three-man line. We have a package of guys we can put in there that we think are pretty good at getting to the quarterback."
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has run the ball better than Pittman envisioned (7.5 yards per carry), and comes off of the team's first passing performance of at least 360 yards since 2016. Jefferson, who Pittman calls "as good a runner as we have," operates behind a line that returns all five starters, allowing first-year assistant Cody Kennedy to employ multiple blocking schemes.
The Hogs rank eighth nationally in rushing (282.3 yards per game).
"We run a gap scheme, a man scheme and certainly [Kennedy's] own scheme," Pittman said. "Because they're veterans, they're able to do that and not have a whole lot of missed assignments."
Arkansas controlled the line of scrimmage against Texas but will learn much more about its progress -- and SEC outlook -- the next four weeks against Texas A&M, No. 2 Georgia, No. 13 Ole Miss and Auburn.
"I'd imagine at the end of the year, they can put me on the [CFP] selection committee," Pittman said. "Hell, I'm the one who knows who the best teams in the country are. We feel like we've got a good ballclub, but we're a work in progress. As long as we'll play hard, we'll have a chance."
Maryland
2020 record: 2-3
If Maryland goes on to have a breakout season, coach Mike Locksley will remember what happened on the sideline early in the fourth quarter Friday at Illinois. The Terrapins looked shaky most of the night, especially on offense, and fell behind after Illinois wide receiver Casey Washington scooped up a fumble from teammate Reggie Love III and raced 30 yards for the go-ahead score.
In the past, a weird/unfortunate play might have doomed the Terrapins. This time, they were unfazed.
"It's been that mindset from, 'Here we go again' to 'Hey, we're going to be OK,'" Locksley told ESPN on Sunday. "It was the first time this season we had any [late-game] adversity. We prepared them for it: Big Ten game, on the road, Friday night crowd. I knew it was going to be a tough-ass game. It wasn't going to be easy. I like the way we responded."
No one responded better than quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who went 5-of-6 passing on a tying touchdown drive, then found Rakim Jarrett and Tayon Fleet-Davis to set up the winning field goal as time expired. Through three games, Tagovailoa has completed 75.5% of his passes for 956 yards with seven touchdowns and zero turnovers.
"I saw a confidence and a calmness out of him," Locksley said. "He can be an emotional player, so if he was scoreboard watching, that can create some anxiety when you're down seven with seven minutes left. He executed our offense and focused."
Maryland has the talent to compete in a deep but potentially more wide-open Big Ten East Division. A receiving corps led by Jarrett, Dontay Demus Jr. and Jeshaun Jones is a problem for opposing defenses. The Terrapins' defense also has been sharper and more disruptive, collecting takeaways in each of the first three weeks and allowing just 268.7 yards per game.
A season-opening win against West Virginia could look even better soon. If the Terrapins take down Kent State this week, a huge Friday night home showdown against No. 5 Iowa on Oct. 1 would come next.
"This is by far the most talented team I've had since I've been here," said Lockley, in his third year at Maryland. "We're focused more on competing against who we are. I've been happy and impressed with how they've taken the coaching and all the stuff we've asked them to do."
The Mighty Mountain West: Utah State, San Diego State, Fresno State
2020 records: Utah State 1-5; San Diego State 4-4; Fresno State 3-3
Utah State is the only team here that truly struggled in 2020, and while Fresno State is not technically 3-0, all three Mountain West squads are off to very encouraging starts with four combined wins over Pac-12 teams.
First-year Utah State coach Blake Anderson is making an immediate impact in Logan, as the Aggies are 3-0 for the first time since 1978. A balanced offense is averaging 41 points and 563.3 yards per game, getting big lifts from wide receiver Deven Thompkins and others. The Aggies averaged only 15.5 points per game during the abbreviated 2020 season.
San Diego State has been a Pac-12 pest for years, but consecutive wins over Arizona (road) and Utah (home) are notable for coach Brady Hoke. The Aztecs' formula of stingy defense (18.3 points per game allowed) and a heavy run-based offense (142 rushing attempts, 53 passing attempts) remains in place, and could vault the team to its first Mountain West title since going back-to-back in 2015 and 2016.
Fresno State recorded the league's most impressive win late Saturday over then-No. 13 UCLA. Second-year coach Kalen DeBoer is one of the best under-the-radar coaches in college football, and has the offense surging behind quarterback Jake Haener. DeBoer told me Fresno State's only loss, a seven-point defeat at Oregon, gave the team confidence that it could match up physically with any remaining opponent.