We demanded chaos from the 2021 college football season, and it has begun to deliver. Almost 20 ranked teams have already lost in just three weeks, and even Alabama looked downright mortal against Florida. Even if you accept the premise that Bama and Georgia are the two best teams in the country, the discussion for No. 3 could involve up to about 15 teams.
It's certainly been a fun way to start the season, but let's demand even more. With three eventful weeks in the books, let's ponder where else this season could take us. Let's make some all-caps BOLD PREDICTIONS.
Granted, this is far more of a "Things that have a better chance of happening than you might think" list than a list of genuine predictions -- I hedge far too much for my predictions to ever be particularly bold -- but if a single one of these things actually happens, I will absolutely claim credit for having predicted it all the same. And if you didn't think the season was teetering on the edge of absurdity before reading this, you certainly might after. Let's dive in.
Two Big Ten teams will make the CFP ... and Ohio State won't be one of them
Back in the early days of Jim Harbaugh's time at Michigan, his Wolverines wouldn't just beat overmatched opponents, they would make examples of them. They allowed 14 points in a five-game stretch of blowouts early in 2015. They humiliated Hawaii, Rutgers and Maryland by a combined 200-6 in 2016. They've still seen some blowout wins since, but the edge, the outright willingness to offend, was not quite the same.
On Saturday, we got the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh's 2021 Wolverines have regained their edge. That they blew out an outmanned Northern Illinois team wasn't in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however -- even while emptying the bench -- might have been. Up 28-3 late in the first half, Cade McNamara went deep to Cornelius Johnson for an 87-yard score. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on romps of 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after driving 72 yards for a field goal in the first quarter, NIU gained just 61 yards over its next eight drives. Final score: UM 63, NIU 10.
Michigan is 3-0 and has rocketed up to sixth in SP+. From a numbers perspective, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver A.J. Henning give them both versatility and genuine speed on the edge. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) might command more playing time soon. That McNamara went 8-for-11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have assuaged at least some of the "what happens when they actually have to pass?" concerns that swelled through two games, and Johnson's long touchdown dropped hints as to who will step forward in the receiving corps with leader Ronnie Bell out for the season.
For those who remain Michigan skeptics despite the strong start, that's fine. Sensible, even. With the disappointing ways the Wolverines' seasons have tended to end -- three losses in four games in 2016, three losses in a row in 2017, two in a row in 2018 and 2019, four in five games in 2020 -- they still face the burden of proof. They have a battery of tests ahead, too, with a Week 4 visit from 3-0 Rutgers and road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska before Halloween. But they've looked the part so far. They're not alone.
These are heady days in Big Ten country, and not only because the ennui wafting from Ann Arbor has died down (for now). The ice cream tastes a little sweeter at the Michigan State and Penn State dairies. The burgers at Short's in Iowa City are a little juicier. Iowa and Penn State are both in the top six in the AP poll, and Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers are each 3-0 for the first time since 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2012, respectively. Of the 15 power-conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, per SP+, five reside in the Big Ten. Even if Alabama and Georgia win out in the regular season and gobble up two of the four spots in the College Football Playoff -- which is obviously far from guaranteed -- the oddity of the early season and the sheer depth of options within the Big Ten could mean that it has a chance at scoring both of the other two spots.
Technically, Ohio State is one of those teams. The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%
The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa.
The 0-3 Golden Hurricane had the ball in Ohio State territory, midway through the fourth quarter, with a chance to tie the score before Tyleik Williams' huge sack of Davis Brin forced them to punt. The Buckeyes finally put the game away with a 12-yard C.J. Stroud-to-Garrett Wilson touchdown and a Cameron Martinez pick-six. But this game seemed far closer than the 41-20 final score and did little to soothe the anxieties that followed their similarly competitive win over Minnesota in Week 1 and their loss to Oregon in Week 2.
The Buckeyes' offense remains dynamite, of course, ranking first in offensive SP+ and fifth in yards per play (8.1). Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are averaging 9 yards per carry, and receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on pace for a combined 200 catches and 3,000 yards. But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.
While some other Big Ten fan bases are assuredly abuzz because of their respective teams' strong play, the buzz doubles when you realize there isn't an unstoppable behemoth atop your conference keeping your ambitions in check.
Clemson will go 8-4
The Clemson offense is approaching crisis mode after another sketchy performance on Saturday, and if the Tigers don't start living up to their recent history and recruiting rankings, things could spiral a bit, at least by this program's standards.
After getting held to six points and 2.7 yards per play in a 24-6 loss to Alabama in 2017's CFP, Clemson's offense was unstoppable for nearly three straight years. The Tigers were held under 6 yards per play just five times in 42 games and never fell below 5.4.
In two games against FBS competition in 2021, the Tigers have averaged 8.5 points per game -- three against Georgia, 14 against Georgia Tech -- and 3.7 yards per play. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has produced a passer rating of just 104.9; even in a Week 2 throttling of FCS' South Carolina State, he threw for just 171 yards and a 123.6 rating.
We knew that, even with a new set of blue-chippers in place, there could be a drop-off with the loss of generational Clemson stars such as Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. But this currently isn't a reload; it's a collapse. There's a Northwestern-level imbalance at the moment between one side of the ball and the other; if preseason projections weren't part of the current SP+ formula, Clemson would currently rank 97th in offense and sixth in defense.
Preseason projections are included in SP+ for a reason, however. Prior information fleshes out expectations better than in-season data does on its own, and priors suggest there doesn't have to be anything seriously wrong with Dabo Swinney's squad. The Tigers still rank 15th in offensive SP+ and fifth overall because of the priors; a surge is likely.
When might that surge occur, though? SP+ projects Clemson as a favorite in every remaining game and gives the Tigers a 27% chance of reaching 11-1. But with road trips to NC State, Pitt and Louisville on the docket, it also gives them a 33% chance of finishing 9-3 or worse. The long-term trajectory of this program is clearly still fantastic, but this team is as vulnerable as any Clemson team has been since either 2017 (if we're being optimistic) or 2014 (if we're not).
Washington will win the Pac-12
As strange as it might sound, the reason for hope among Clemson fans right now might be the Week 3 exploits of another disappointing team with purple in its color scheme.
Despite playing abysmal offense for most of their first two games -- a 13-7 loss to Montana and a 31-10 defeat to Michigan -- priors and strong preseason projections left Jimmy Lake's Washington Huskies a respectable 27th in SP+ heading into the weekend. They were projected to beat Arkansas State by a 40-21 margin even though the idea of them scoring 40 points in two games combined seemed like a reach.
They won 52-3. SP+ was underselling them. Quarterback Dylan Morris still wasn't great -- 59% completion rate, two interceptions -- but he completed passes of 20-plus yards to four different receivers, including Jalen McMillan, who had a 10-catch, 175-yard breakout. The run game was steady and solid, and an angry team overwhelmed the Red Wolves.
Despite everything that's happened in the first three weeks, Oregon (15th) and Washington (19th) are separated by only 1.3 adjusted points per game in the SP+ ratings, and the Huskies host the Ducks on Nov. 6. Their average projected conference wins are currently 6.52 for Oregon, 6.49 for Washington. If you forced me to predict a winner, head-to-head or in the Pac-12 North race, I would go with Oregon, of course. But priors are more predictive than we tend to think, and with an excellent defense and even just a competent offense, the Huskies' ceiling is still quite high. They just have to flash said competence a few more times.
FSU and Northwestern will both go 2-10
This was never likely to be a great season for the teams in Tallahassee, Florida, and Evanston, Illinois. Florida State -- which won a national title less than a decade ago! -- was projected 50th in SP+, and Caesars Sportsbook set the Seminoles' season over/under at 5.5 wins. Defending Big Ten West champion Northwestern, meanwhile, lost more of last year's production than any team in FBS, and while Caesars set the bar at 6.5 wins, SP+ projected the Wildcats 76th with something closer to 5.0 wins.
Those projections now seem naively optimistic. Since an encouraging overtime loss to Notre Dame in the season opener, FSU has completely fallen apart, losing to Jacksonville State via the easiest last-second bomb you'll ever see completed, then getting steamrollered by Wake Forest 35-14. Unlike the Seminoles, Northwestern actually defeated its FCS opponent, a weaker Indiana State, 24-6, but fell to Michigan State by 17 in the season opener and fell to an equally meek Duke 30-23 on Saturday.
The Noles and Wildcats now rank 68th and 85th, respectively, in SP+. They are projected favorites in just four of their remaining 18 games combined -- FSU has a win probability of 97% against UMass and 65% against Syracuse, while NU is at 70% against Ohio and 51% vs. Illinois -- and while there are certainly some relative tossups that could plump up the win totals, losses to any of those opponents besides UMass wouldn't be particularly surprising either. SP+ projects FSU with a 21% chance of finishing 2-10 or worse, while Northwestern, despite the win in hand, is at 15%.
One bad season doesn't make for a terrible trajectory. Northwestern is living proof of that -- the Wildcats have won nine or more games four times in the past 10 years (and might have with a full slate in 2020 as well), but they've also finished under .500 four times and sandwiched a 3-9 campaign between their 2018 and 2020 West titles.
While Northwestern will almost certainly respond to a poor season with patience and long-term planning, though, it's hard to believe the same thing about Florida State. The Noles fired their last coach midway through his second season after he had won nine of his first 21 games; Mike Norvell, a quarter of the way through Year 2, has won only three of 12.
A team with three losses (or more) will win the Big 12
There's a chance that Oklahoma still runs away with the Big 12 yet again. The Sooners are second in SP+ (which gave them a lot more credit for their win over Nebraska than the eyeballs did), and their defense has been excellent aside from about a 15-minute funk against Tulane in Week 1. They are projected favorites of at least 12 points in each Big 12 game and would be similarly favored in the Big 12 championship.
The Sooners' offense, however, was bereft of big plays on Saturday, and the defensive funk vs. Tulane was shaky enough that it's hard to be 100 percent confident in OU. And at this stage, any of about eight teams could end up making a run to snare the second spot in the conference title game.
Iowa State remains the No. 2 choice at 14th in SP+, but chaos looms behind the Cyclones. With Kansas State and Texas Tech both jumping into the SP+ top 50, that means seven teams are separated by just 6.8 adjusted points per game, from No. 22 Texas to No. 48 Texas Tech. And while Oklahoma leads the way with 7.6 average projected conference wins, the next eight teams are separated by only 1.8 wins, from ISU at 5.8 to Tech and West Virginia at 4.0.
Even if OU breezes to No. 1 in the conference, then, the battle for No. 2 is only an upset or two away from becoming an absolute donnybrook. Any number of teams could reach the title game with a 6-3 conference record, at which point they would be one upset away from the Big 12 title.
UTSA will make a New Year's Six bowl
At the moment, Cincinnati has aspirations higher than simply snaring the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl automatic bid for a second straight year. The Bearcats, who have won 12 straight regular-season games dating back to the start of 2020, remain a solid eighth in the AP poll and are coming off a sturdy 38-24 win over Indiana. They have a bye this coming week, then it's time for one of the biggest games in their recent history, a trip to Notre Dame on Oct. 2. Win out, and, in this strange and semi-chaotic season, they might have a résumé that gets the CFP committee's attention.
(I will forever believe it only when I see it; I don't think the committee will ever give G5 teams proper credit, but with enough chaos, it could theoretically happen.)
If Cincy loses in South Bend, however, the New Year's Six spot could be up for grabs. A one-loss, AAC-winning Cincinnati would still have a strong case, but the door could end up open for an unbeaten and strong-looking G5 team.
Jamey Chadwell's Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, the darlings of 2020, might be in the best position to take advantage, due to both last year's reputation and their odds of reaching the finish line unbeaten. But Texas-San Antonio might be next in line after the Cats and Chants.
Best G5 odds of finishing 12-0, per SP+:
Coastal Carolina 17.5%
Cincinnati 13.3%
UTSA 2.9%
San Diego State 2.6%
Memphis 0.6%
Wyoming 0.5%
(BYU, Liberty and Army are at 2.9%, 2.5% and 0.4%, respectively, though they are independents.)
Jeff Traylor's Roadrunners have won six of seven dating back to last season. They began the season with a 37-30 victory over Illinois and handled their business against Lamar (54-0) and conference mate Middle Tennessee (27-13). They face rough road trips to Memphis and Western Kentucky over the next three weeks, but if they can get to 6-0, they should be 10-0 when UAB visits the Alamodome on Nov. 20. There are plenty of hurdles to clear, but UTSA has been up to the challenge of late. And either way, UTSA at Memphis this weekend could be an absolute delight.
Matt Corral will win the Heisman
Honestly? This prediction might not even be bold at this point.
Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is on pace for 4,000 passing yards, 600 rushing yards and 52 combined touchdowns. He might be a great performance against Bama away from becoming the favorite (if he isn't already), and the Rebels' newfound defensive competence -- 20.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play allowed, top 50 in defensive SP+ -- could give them the poll standing generally required by Heisman voters. He is the perfect quarterback for a Lane Kiffin offense, and his Rebels are must-see television every week.