<
>

College football bowl projections and analysis: Top matchups, playoff breakdowns and more

We had the usual batch of wild plays, controversial decisions and close calls during Week 3 of the college football season, but we didn't have any upsets among the top 10 teams. But that doesn't mean there weren't some shakeups in the pecking order among teams or in our projected bowl matchups.

In addition to predicting the matchups for every single bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide key analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, coaches under pressure to make a bowl, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and more.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oregon

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Iowa

Playoff breakdown

Bonagura: Alabama and Georgia self-select, leaving two spots for Oregon, Iowa and Oklahoma to fight for. The Sooners are the odd team out as they don't have a win that compares with the Ducks (Ohio State) or Hawkeyes (Iowa State) and weren't convincing again this week in a 23-16 win against Nebraska. With a pair of wins against ranked opponents, Penn State also is building a compelling résumé. The Nittany Lions travel to Iowa on Oct. 9 after games against Villanova and Indiana.

Schlabach: I nearly went with Georgia over Alabama for the top seed, but the Bulldogs' inability to defeat the Crimson Tide in the past probably prevented me from going there. Georgia's defense has played better than Alabama's to this point, and quarterback JT Daniels looked good in his return from an oblique injury. South Carolina's ability to hit big passing plays in a 40-13 loss raised some concerns about Georgia's secondary. The Crimson Tide were lucky to escape Florida with a 31-29 win. I'm sure Nick Saban is more than pleased that his top-ranked team has been brought back to earth. Iowa is my No. 3 team after a 30-7 win over Kent State, although I could have easily gone with Oregon. The Hawkeyes' home win against Indiana and road victory at Iowa State carry more weight for me than the Ducks' road win at struggling Ohio State.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Penn State vs. UCLA

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma


Team knocking on the door of the NY6

Bonagura: If Cincinnati drops a game, keep an eye on Fresno State as the possible Group of 5 team in the Fiesta Bowl. The Bulldogs nearly won at Oregon to start the year and knocked off UCLA at the Rose Bowl late Saturday night. Quarterback Jake Haener, a Washington transfer, is playing at a really high level, and the Bulldogs will have several opportunities to pick up key wins in a good year for the Mountain West.

Schlabach: I'm trying really hard to not take the bait on Michigan. The Wolverines blasted Washington and beat up two MAC teams, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, and looked physical and disciplined in the process. They lead the FBS in rushing with 350.3 yards per game and haven't turned the ball over yet this season. Bo Schembechler would be so proud. Given Ohio State's struggles on defense, it suddenly seems that any of four teams could win the Big Ten East. And, yes, the Wolverines are one of them.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. UAB
Schlabach: Ball State vs. FAU

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. Charlotte

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Houston
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Nevada vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Kent State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Marshall
Schlabach: BYU vs. UAB

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Troy vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Utah vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Nevada


Notable team in danger of not making a bowl

Bonagura: Utah has been to a bowl game in 15 of the last 17 seasons, dating back to Urban Meyer's first season in Salt Lake City in 2003. The Utes finished their nonconference schedule 1-2 and while the losses came against good teams -- BYU and San Diego State -- they now need a 5-4 record in-conference to become bowl eligible. That still seems likely because the Pac-12 is down and a midgame quarterback change to Cam Rising seems promising, but the Utes have failed to impress.

Schlabach: How costly were the officiating mistakes that led to Memphis scoring on a bizarre 94-yard punt return in the fourth quarter of a 31-29 victory against Mississippi State? It might be the difference in the Bulldogs going bowling or not. In the rugged SEC West, there is little margin for error. After impressive nonconference wins against Louisiana Tech and NC State, the Bulldogs sit at 2-1. They'll have to find four more victories to make the postseason, and aside from a road game at Vanderbilt and home games against FCS program Tennessee State and Kentucky, they might not be favored the rest of the way. Five of their remaining games are against teams that were ranked this past week.


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tulane vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. SMU
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Air Force

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Tennessee


Coach under pressure who needs to make a bowl game

Bonagura: After starting the year ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, Miami sparked some high expectations. But after lopsided losses to Alabama and Michigan State and a narrow win against Appalachian State, the Hurricanes appear on track to be mostly irrelevant again this year. It's still too early to have a good feel for how the season will play out, but it would be a disaster for coach Manny Diaz to miss out on a bowl game in Year 3.

Schlabach: Here we go again. Three years into a new coaching regime, Miami fans are ready to run Manny Diaz out of town and start over again. He was a surprising choice when he was hired, aside from being a hometown guy with strong recruiting connections. Diaz had never been a head coach, besides the two weeks he spent at Temple before bailing on that program to return to the Hurricanes. So far, Miami has had a lot of swag and little substance under his watch. There are only two remaining games that look like guaranteed wins -- against FCS program Central Connecticut State next week and at Florida State on Nov. 13 (unless the Seminoles figure it out before then). Miami will have to win four or five toss-up games to go bowling.


Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Jose State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. SMU

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kent State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Troy vs. San Jose State

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Buffalo

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. UCF
Schlabach: Miami vs. UCF

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Tulane

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Army
Schlabach: Houston vs. Baylor

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Stanford

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Kansas State

Dec. 29

Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Boston College

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Texas

Schlabach's take: I'm sure first-year Texas coach Steve Sarkisian would be thrilled about facing former Longhorns coach Mack Brown in a bowl game. North Carolina has rebounded from its opening loss at Virginia Tech to trounce Georgia State 59-17 and then Virginia 59-39 on Saturday. With Georgia Tech, Duke, Florida State and Miami coming next, the Tar Heels have a chance to get to 6-1 before an Oct. 30 road game at Notre Dame. Brown guided his Texas teams to 158 victories and a national championship from 1998 to 2013. The Longhorns forced him out in the end, and they've been trying to return to the sport's upper echelon ever since.


Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Stanford
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. NC State
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Virginia

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Maryland

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. USC

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Washington

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. San Diego State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Florida vs. Michigan

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. LSU
Schlabach: TCU vs. LSU

Bonagura's take: As USC begins its search for a new head coach, the idea of seeing Ed Orgeron (LSU) and Steve Sarkisian (Texas) on opposite sidelines would be appealing. Considering what both coaches have been through since, it's hard to believe it was only seven years ago when USC passed over Orgeron to hire Sarkisian as Lane Kiffin's replacement.