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College football bowl projections and analysis: Top matchups, playoff breakdowns and more

A season full of surprises didn't disappoint this weekend, with the trend of unexpected turns gaining even more momentum. Six teams in the Top 25 suffered losses and several others had close calls or other odd occurrences. All the chaos is reflected in our latest batch of bowl projections.

In addition to predicting the matchups for every single bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and teams that helped or hurt their cause the most.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oregon

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Iowa

Playoff breakdown

Bonagura: Alabama and Georgia did exactly what College Football Playoff-caliber teams are supposed to do when they play against overmatched teams. Winning handily wasn't a given for the other top contenders. Oregon (vs. Arizona), Oklahoma (West Virginia) and Iowa (Colorado State) all struggled -- at least in stretches -- while Penn State had an easier time with FCS foe Villanova. Oregon still has the most impressive win (Ohio State) among those four, so the Ducks hang on to my No. 3 spot for another week. Penn State over Iowa and Oklahoma is splitting hairs, but the Nittany Lions have been slightly more consistent. Cincinnati has a huge chance to make its case this week against Notre Dame.

Schlabach: Georgia and Alabama remain my top two teams, and I think they're clearly head and shoulders above the other contenders right now. We'll learn a lot more about the Crimson Tide's defense when they play Ole Miss' high-scoring offense at home on Saturday. Tide coach Nick Saban has never lost a game to one of his former assistants, and Lane Kiffin would like nothing more than to be the first one to do it. The Bulldogs face a suddenly sneaky game against Arkansas, and former assistant coach Sam Pittman, at home on Saturday. It will be Georgia's biggest challenge to date, and the Razorbacks are brimming with confidence. I stayed with Iowa as my No. 3 team, even though the Hawkeyes weren't that impressive in a 24-14 win against Colorado State. I went with Penn State as my No. 4 team, although I could have easily gone with Oregon. The Ducks didn't look great against an Arizona team that has dropped 16 straight games, the longest active losing streak in the FBS, before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 41-19 win. Like a lot of teams outside of the top two, Oregon has some flaws.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame


Team that helped its cause the most

Bonagura: If Alabama and Georgia weren't easy choices for the playoff, Arkansas would deserve strong consideration. That's not to say the Razorbacks aren't a top-four worthy team at this stage -- they are -- it's just that there is no scenario in which one conference will get three playoff teams with a four-team field. The Razorbacks handed Texas A&M its first loss (20-10 on Saturday) and their 40-21 win against Texas earlier in the year looks even better now that the Longhorns have been dominant in their other three games.

Schalabach: This Notre Dame team isn't as talented as the ones that reached the College Football Playoff in two of the previous three seasons, but the Fighting Irish are figuring out ways to keep winning. The offensive line is the biggest concern, and it was once again in Saturday's 41-13 win over Wisconsin at Soldier Field. The Badgers had six sacks and limited the Irish to three rushing yards (the Irish lost 33 on sacks). The Irish don't look like a team good enough to make a New Year's Six bowl game, but they might make one anyway. Besides next week's home game against No. 8 Cincinnati, the remaining schedule isn't as imposing as it once seemed. Road trips to Virginia Tech and Stanford might be tricky, but USC, North Carolina and Virginia all are struggling.


Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati

Bonagura's take: How about an all-Ohio matchup in the Fiesta Bowl? Cincinnati vs. Ohio State carries the obvious storyline of Bearcats coach Luke Fickell going against his alma mater -- the place where he spent 15 years on staff, including a brief stint at the interim head coach. The Fiesta Bowl is almost assuredly going to get the top Group of 5 team and there wouldn't be a more intriguing matchup. Cincinnati and Ohio State have met 17 times all time, but the Bearcats have not won since 1897.

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Penn State vs. UCLA

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma


Team knocking on the door of the NY6

Bonagura: At 4-0, both Michigan and Michigan State have elevated expectations since the start of the season. And while neither were emphatic in wins on Saturday, they both should be favored the next three weeks before playing each other in East Lansing. Recent history says to be cautious about buying into Michigan early in the season, but the Wolverines have, mostly, passed the eye test to this point. Michigan State needed overtime to beat Nebraska, but if the Spartans keep winning, it will be hard to ignore them.

Schlabach: Can Wake Forest win the ACC? With Clemson falling off a cliff, and Miami and North Carolina struggling, the Demon Deacons suddenly look like they may be the best team in the beleaguered ACC. Dave Clawson has done fantastic work rebuilding Wake Forest after taking on one of the most difficult jobs in the sport. Behind quarterback Sam Hartman, the Demon Deacons have scored a school-record 155 points while starting 4-0. They defeated Florida State 35-14, then scored on their first seven possessions for a 37-17 victory at Virginia on Saturday. I don't want to look too far into the future with Wake Forest, but there's a chance it might start 8-0 before facing the meat of its ACC schedule.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. UAB
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Florida Atlantic

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. Charlotte

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Houston
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Liberty

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Norfolk State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Nevada vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Utah

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Marshall
Schlabach: BYU vs. UAB

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Charlotte
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: USC vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San Diego State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Temple vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Nevada

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. SMU
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Air Force

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Duke vs. Tennessee

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Louisiana Monroe
Schlabach: Boise State vs. SMU

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Buffalo

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Miami vs. Central Florida

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Miami
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Virginia

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Army
Schlabach: Houston vs. West Virginia

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Missouri

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Stanford

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. TCU

Dec. 29

Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Memphis

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Purdue vs. NC State

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Texas vs. Virginia Tech

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. North Carolina


Team that hurt its cause the most

Bonagura: Even after Clemson lost to Georgia and struggled against Georgia Tech, it still felt reasonable to allow for the Tigers to run the table and return to the playoff. Not happening. The calendar hasn't reached October and, in the wake of a 27-21 loss to NC State, Clemson is all but eliminated from playoff contention. It's hard to comprehend how quickly the Tigers went from juggernaut to just another ACC team, but here we are.

Schlabach: Clemson's fall from grace has been stunning, to say the least. It's not uncommon for programs of Clemson's caliber to have blips from time to time, but you never expect a team that has won two national championships in the past five seasons to go over the cliff. After four games, the Tigers rank 115th in the FBS in passing (169.3 yards), 105th in scoring (21.8 points) and 99th in rushing (126.2 yards). Those aren't issues you can fix overnight. Clemson's offensive line hasn't been great for a couple of years, and it doesn't have the firepower at tailback and receiver to mask the deficiency. In the first month of the season, the Tigers have been eliminated from the CFP mix and might not even be the best team in the ACC, which is something we haven't seen in the past seven years.


TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Maryland

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Washington

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Clemson

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Stanford
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. USC

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Florida vs. Michigan

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Baylor vs. LSU

Schlabach's take: Besides picking Florida State to go to a bowl game (I firmly believe the Seminoles' prospects for the season would have been much, much better if they'd simply beat Notre Dame in the opener), my worst preseason prediction might have been picking Baylor to go 4-8. The Bears were 2-7 in coach Dave Aranda's first season in 2020, and trying to make that transition in the middle of a pandemic wasn't easy. Aranda shook up his coaching staff before this season, and the early results have been encouraging. Baylor beat three cupcakes to start the season, but then it took down Iowa State 31-29 on Saturday to improve to 4-0. Aranda was LSU's defensive coordinator before taking the Baylor job, and he helped the Tigers win the 2019 CFP national championship. LSU has been trying to fix its defense ever since.