September was full of surprises, opening the door for unheralded teams like Arkansas, Iowa and Michigan, while slamming it shut on perennial power Clemson.
The first of six College Football Playoff rankings isn't revealed until Nov. 2, following an October packed with conference games that will start to reveal which teams' playoff aspirations are legitimate. There are a handful of teams, like Notre Dame and Oklahoma, that don't look like top-four material, but also might not need to finish the season undefeated.
Here's a look at four lessons learned after one month, and four storylines that will impact the playoff in October.
What September taught us
1. So long, ACC. It's probably premature -- technically -- to write off an entire Power 5 conference in September, but when Wake Forest and Boston College are the only undefeated teams remaining, it's safe to say the ACC doesn't have a playoff contender. Wake and BC are improved, respectable teams, but they're not elite, and their schedules don't give them any opportunities to prove otherwise.
Instead of helping anyone else in the ACC, Clemson's second loss boosts just about everyone else. It further bolsters the SEC's chances of getting two teams in the top four -- an edge the SEC already had with Georgia's win over Clemson. It gives the Pac-12 greater hope for a one-loss conference champion, keeping UCLA's chances alive, and giving Oregon some wiggle room. It does the same for the Big 12, where a one-loss conference champion in a struggling league would still get the nod over a two-loss ACC champ.
(Before you get too comfortable with one-loss champions in the Big 12 and Pac-12, though, keep reading for realistic scenarios that will make you nervous for OU and Oregon).
A two-loss team has never made the Playoff. That doesn't mean it can't or won't happen, but it won't be Clemson. Not after September losses to Georgia and NC State. Yes, they are both respectable opponents, but Clemson has yet to resemble a playoff contender through the first four weeks.
2. Texas A&M still isn't ready for the big stage. Texas A&M is constantly measured against Alabama in the SEC West, and Jimbo Fisher was hired and paid an exorbitant amount of money to close the gap and beat Nick Saban.
He couldn't beat Sam Pittman and Arkansas first.
That's not a knock on the Hogs, but Fisher has had a two-year head start on Pittman in building his SEC program. It was the first ranked opponent Texas A&M has faced this season, and clearly it's only going to get more difficult. With the loss, Texas A&M will drop behind Arkansas in the SEC West standings. The Aggies can still play the role of spoiler and upset Alabama on Oct. 9, but ESPN's Football Power Index gives them only a 26.1% chance to do that.
The Aggies felt snubbed last year by their No. 5 finish, certain they deserved a spot in the semifinals. Instead of joining the club this fall, Texas A&M appears poised to fall a few steps back.
3. The Big Ten is wide open. The Big Ten has five undefeated teams in Maryland, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. They all still have to play each other, starting with Iowa's trip to College Park on Friday. The Hawkeyes are coming off a come-from-behind win against Colorado State, which was more difficult than many probably anticipated. With Wisconsin's loss to Notre Dame, and Minnesota's embarrassing loss to Bowling Green, Iowa has separated itself as the top team in the Big Ten's West Division, but that doesn't mean the Hawkeyes are ready for the CFP. All of the Big Ten's best teams still have something to prove -- and they've got to do it against each other. Somebody has to rise to the top with one or fewer losses, and after four weeks, Penn State continues to look like it has the most potential.
4. Notre Dame doesn't look like a top-four team, but it doesn't have to -- yet. The Irish are young, inexperienced in some areas and clearly still searching for their identity, but as long as they keep winning and improving, they're going to be in consideration for a semifinal spot. Saturday's win against Wisconsin was another step toward that, and the Irish were able to do it with their third-string quarterback, as starter Jack Coan left the game with an injury and true freshman Tyler Buchner was unavailable with a hamstring injury. Coach Brian Kelly said everybody tries to "peg teams early on," but they're still trying to figure themselves out. "They're not perfect by any means," Kelly said, "but they're going to be better in November, and that's the nice part about it."
Four things to watch in October
1. Is Arkansas a legit challenger to Bama and Georgia? If not the Razorbacks, is anyone in the SEC? Pittman has the Hogs on the rise, and while their Sept. 11 win against Texas wasn't entirely shocking, their win against Texas A&M on Saturday was proof that they're no longer an easy out. They're a well-coached team playing their hearts out for Pittman, but Saturday was the first in a stretch of four straight games against ranked opponents -- and ESPN's FPI doesn't give them better than a 50% chance to win any of them. None will be more difficult in October than the upcoming back-to-back road trips to Georgia (12.7%) and Ole Miss (29.6%).
"Somebody will say, 'Well, Texas A&M ain't any good just because Arkansas beat 'em,'" Pittman said. "And somebody will say, 'Texas ain't any good because Arkansas beat 'em,' but I believe both of them's really good. And I think the Razorbacks have a good football team."
The next three weeks will reveal how good.
It will also determine the SEC's top challenger to Georgia and Alabama. (Clearly it's not the Aggies). If it's not Arkansas, it could be Ole Miss. The Rebels have a shot at Alabama on Saturday before hosting Arkansas on Oct. 9.
2. Can Ohio State or Florida make a move as a one-loss team? Ohio State can still win the Big Ten, and the Gators can still win the SEC East and earn a shot at redemption against Alabama in the conference championship game. Florida overcame a sluggish start to beat Tennessee on Saturday and should win its next three games against unranked SEC East opponents before facing Georgia on Oct. 30. The winner of that game will take the lead in the East, but ESPN's FPI gives the Gators only a 30.6% chance against the Dawgs.
That game could change the entire playoff picture. If Florida knocks off Georgia, the Bulldogs are likely out of the top-four debate because their best win, against Clemson, has already been devalued. If the SEC is going to get two teams in the semifinals in that scenario, Florida would have to beat Alabama to win the SEC title and hand the Tide its only loss of the season. The Gators still have a path to the playoff, but they can't lose again.
The same can be said for the Buckeyes, who cruised to a win against Akron under quarterback Kyle McCord, who replaced injured starter C.J. Stroud. It was the kind of complete performance Ohio State fans had been waiting for -- but it came against Akron, not Oregon. If Ohio State can beat Penn State on Oct. 30, the narrative surrounding the Buckeyes will change, and they'll be right back in the playoff picture. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten, and its only loss is to the Pac-12 champs, the Buckeyes will have plenty on their résumé to earn a top-four spot.
3. Can Cincinnati win the one game that matters most? If Cincinnati is going to get any respect from the selection committee, it has to beat Notre Dame on Saturday in South Bend and finish undefeated -- and even that might not be enough for top-four consideration. The committee has made clear over the past seven seasons that strength of schedule matters, and it has been the biggest hurdle for the Group of 5 contenders to clear. Notre Dame is currently the only ranked opponent on the Bearcats' schedule. Its remaining strength of schedule is No. 79 in the country.
The selection committee would almost certainly still favor a one-loss SEC team over an undefeated Cincinnati, and the Power 5 conference champions from the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 would have more impressive résumés. The Bearcats have to look the part of an elite team and leave no doubt in that committee meeting room that they're one of the four best teams. They can start by beating Notre Dame, because if they don't, they'll end the debate themselves.
4. Can Oregon and Oklahoma avoid upsets in struggling leagues? The Sooners weren't able to exhale Saturday until Gabe Brkic made the game-winning field goal as time expired to beat West Virginia 16-13. As long as Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and avoids an embarrassing loss, the Sooners should be OK. The same can be said for Oregon. The X-factors both teams need to worry about are Notre Dame and/or a second SEC team.
If the Big Ten and SEC champions are in, and the ACC champion is out, that leaves two spots up for grabs. A one-loss Notre Dame probably won't have an edge in the committee meeting room against a one-loss Big 12 or Pac-12 champion because the Irish don't have a title game to compensate for it. If Notre Dame is undefeated, though, they're probably in again.
There are also two realistic ways the SEC can get two teams in. The first is the Alabama-Florida scenario mentioned earlier, where the Gators win the SEC and hand the Tide their only loss in the conference championship game. The second is Georgia winning the East and the committee taking both Alabama and Georgia, assuming the SEC runner-up in that scenario has only one loss.
That's a concern for the Big 12 and Pac-12 because then the committee is considering a top four that consists of the Big Ten champion and two SEC teams. Who gets the fourth spot?
Oklahoma? Oregon? Notre Dame? Cincinnati?
October will help answer that.