After three weeks of funky bounces and sweet, glorious home crowds, the focus for Week 4 of the college football season shifts, strangely enough, to neutral sites. The two biggest games of the week are in NFL stadiums: first No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 18 Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Chicago, then No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Arkansas at Jerry World -- aka AT&T Stadium -- in Arlington, Texas. Unlike a lot of neutral-site games, the atmosphere in both should be fantastic, and the games could be barn burners.
Few top-10 teams beyond A&M, No. 4 Oklahoma (vs. West Virginia) or No. 9 Clemson (at NC State) are taking on decent tests this week, but that's fine -- this is college football. There are countless teams worth paying attention to, and we always learn a lot no matter the slate. So let's dive into the biggest storylines for Week 4 before conference play begins in earnest next week.
All times Eastern.
The real fun begins for Notre Dame
No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 18 Wisconsin (noon, Fox)
No matter what your feelings were about Notre Dame at the beginning of the season -- College Football Playoff contention? Rebuild year? -- one thing was certain: The middle of the schedule was going to be rough. With perhaps three tighter-than-expected wins in the books, the Irish will now play Wisconsin in Chicago, Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and Cincinnati, USC and North Carolina at home between now and Halloween. Four of those teams rank 17th or better in SP+, and the one that doesn't (Virginia Tech) has already beaten one of those four other teams and rushes the passer brilliantly.
Notre Dame can, of course, win each of these five games. But the Irish are slight underdogs to Wisconsin on Saturday, and SP+, which correctly predicted some of their early struggles, quantifies the four games after Wisconsin as almost exactly 50-50 toss-ups. It gives the Irish only about a 3% chance of winning all five ... and a 3% chance of losing all five.
The first game of this stretch is almost impossible to read. When Notre Dame has the ball against the Badgers' defense, it's a patented strength-vs.-weakness and weakness-vs.-strength matchup. The Irish have been strangely bad at running the ball in 2021; Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree have combined to average just 4.0 yards per carry, and Notre Dame is a ghastly 117th in rushing success rate. Both Williams and Tyree have found occasional success outside the tackles but almost none between them, and with a new offensive line struggling to jell, negative plays have been a far larger issue than normal.
Through the years, we've gotten used to the Irish leaning on strong line play and, to a degree, sacrificing in the big-play department to assure a lack of negative plays. This Irish offense is far more volatile, with more explosions of both the bad and good kinds. (Big-play weapons such as Kevin Austin Jr., Braden Lenzy and tight end Michael Mayer are dangerous downfield.) That's probably not going to change against a Wisconsin defense that renders you dependent on random explosions.
Small-sample disclaimers apply -- Wisconsin has played only two games and is coming off of a bye week -- but coordinator Jim Leonhard's defense grades out about as we expected so far. The Badgers rank third in success rate allowed and have forced three-and-outs an incredible 68% of the time thus far (first in the nation). They stuff rushes at or behind the line 29% of the time, too.
When you enjoy a successful play against them, however, it's a pretty big one. Wisconsin ranks 123rd in marginal explosiveness -- my measure of the magnitude of a team's successful plays, adjusted for field position -- and if you watched the game against Penn State, you can understand how that ranking came to be. PSU's five best plays (including three passes of 40-plus yards and a 34-yard run) gained 200 yards; the other 46 plays gained 97. All or nothing.
Wisconsin's offense has been efficient but almost totally devoid of explosiveness. It will be facing a defense that is almost a perfect polar opposite, forcing extreme inefficiency but getting hit with big plays. Obviously, the Badgers' attack will need to do its part, but it's likely that the number of "alls" (as opposed to "nothings") the Notre Dame offense creates will determine whether the Irish move to 4-0.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, aka Barry Odom vs. another green quarterback
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Arkansas (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Arkansas has rolled to a 3-0 start, blowing out Texas and rising to its best poll standing in five years. The ceiling seems awfully high for Sam Pittman's Razorbacks, but life in the SEC West means the floor is always low, too. The reward for their newfound prowess: four consecutive games against teams ranked 18th or better in SP+ (and 23rd or better in the AP poll). Per SP+, their projected full-season schedule strength ranks first in FBS.
The Hogs are projected underdogs for six of their next eight games, and if they want to make something of their season beyond a "very encouraging 7-5," this game is almost a must-win. And their defense will give them a chance.
Early on, it appears second-year defensive coordinator Barry Odom has crafted Arkansas' best D since 2014. The Hogs rank 10th in success rate allowed, second on passing downs. They limit big plays, wait until you fall behind schedule, then pounce. They can also make life hell for young QBs. Rice sophomore Wiley Green was just 12-for-25 with three interceptions and two sacks in Arkansas' 38-17 win in Week 1, and more prominently, Texas' Hudson Card went 8-for-15 for just 61 yards and three sacks and got benched.
Now comes Zach Calzada. A&M's backup to start the year, Calzada struggled mightily when starter Haynes King got hurt in a narrow 10-7 win over Colorado. He rebounded a bit against Rocky Long's New Mexico defense, going 19-for-33 for 275 yards and three touchdowns, but also threw a pick and took three sacks. It is unlikely that he will do a ton of damage against the Hogs, but if he can avoid disasters (not a given against a defense this solid), the Aggies could get enough out of their run game and a dynamite defense to move to 4-0 themselves.
Quite simply, A&M might have the best pass defense in college football. The Aggies rank second in passing success rate, fifth in completion rate and first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (or ANY/A, which includes sack yardage and offers both a 20-yard reward for touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions). Despite a merely solid run defense, they're excellent in the red zone, too. Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson could find it just as difficult to avoid disaster as Calzada might.
It appears the defenses have the edge in this game, and one assumes the SP+ projection -- A&M 30, Arkansas 20 -- comes to fruition only if turnovers are involved.
What exactly is wrong with the Clemson offense?
No. 9 Clemson at NC State (3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App)
Here's where I might normally use some literary sleight of hand. I could point out how awesome NC State's defense has been this season -- the Wolfpack have allowed just 24 offensive points combined to Mississippi State, USF and Furman and rank fourth in success rate allowed, sixth in three-and-out rate and 12th in marginal explosiveness. I could note how well they leverage teams into third-and-medium or third-and-long situations, then tee off. I could then scratch the record by saying something to the effect of, "They've been tremendous ... but they haven't faced the Clemson offense yet."
The Tigers have ranked fifth or better in offensive SP+ for four of the past five years and have finished worse than 24th just once in the past 10 seasons. They're one of the surest things in the sport. But there's been absolutely nothing sure about them in 2021. You could say that the NC State defense gets to face them.
The Tigers have scored just 17 points in two games against FBS competition, and the biggest issue is crystal clear: They can't pass. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, so sound while filling in for Trevor Lawrence for a couple of games last year, ranks 90th in Total QBR, and even counting a Week 2 romp over FCS team South Carolina State, Clemson ranks 108th in passing success rate and 113th in ANY/A.
Uiagalelei has been decent enough throwing quick passes to the slot, but his lack of either aggression or successful aggression has been debilitating. He's 9-for-25 (36%) on passes 10 or more yards downfield, and he is just 9-for-26 (35%) throwing beyond the sticks. Last year, he hit 59% on the former, 57% on the latter.
Uiagalelei has no confidence right now, and it appears offensive coordinator Tony Elliott doesn't have much either. After Georgia constantly rushed and harassed Uiagalelei in Week 1, Georgia Tech did a great job of confusing both Uiagalelei and Elliott last week, frequently dropping eight defenders into coverage to bait the young QB into forcing the issue. To his credit, Uiagalelei didn't bite, but he also didn't do much of anything, going 18-for-25 for just 126 yards in a 14-8 win.
NC State's pass rush has been extremely passive so far -- 127th in sack rate, 79th in blitzes per dropback -- so the Wolfpack might be more likely to properly follow the Tech plan than the Georgia plan. Either way, Uiagalelei's production must improve, and soon.
Luckily, he's still got the Clemson defense in his corner. The Tigers haven't been as merciless as "zero offensive touchdowns allowed in three games" would suggest -- their pass rush hasn't dominated, and they've been letting teams off the hook a bit on passing downs before wrecking shop in the red zone. That has been working, however, and it'll probably work against a State offense that packs some explosiveness (especially in the run game) but self-destructed against the only good defense it has faced: The Pack averaged just 4.4 yards per play with three turnovers and nine TFLs allowed against Mississippi State.
You could say this is all complementary football -- the Clemson offense takes few risks and therefore makes sure not to put the defense in awkward positions, and the defense takes no risks so it doesn't actually get burned and force the offense to score. At some point, however, a Clemson opponent will force the Tigers to take risks and make plays. Will it be the Wolfpack?
Can Tennessee make Florida sweat?
Tennessee at No. 11 Florida (7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App)
Everyone gets seduced by Joe Milton's arm; Jim Harbaugh did at Michigan, making Milton the season-opening starter in 2020, and Tennessee's Josh Heupel evidently did, too. But after Milton got benched for iffy and slow decision-making (one of the reasons for his downfall at Michigan), it appears Heupel may have found his QB on the second try: Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has looked awfully good since subbing for Milton against Pitt.
Hooker led three touchdown drives against Pitt but threw a pick on a last-ditch comeback drive. Thanks to a brief first-half defensive collapse, the Vols fell 41-34. But in his first start, Hooker showed strong command against an admittedly dreadful Tennessee Tech team. Now comes his first huge test since moving to Knoxville: a trip to the Swamp.
Florida's defense has been downright constrained for a Todd Grantham unit this year. The Gators rank only 55th in blitzes per dropback and 67th in success rate allowed, but they give up almost no big plays. Can Hooker and his grab-bag skill corps -- three running backs have between 24 and 31 carries, and eight players have between seven and 11 targets (and none have more) -- maintain patience and do enough damage that Grantham has to force the issue? And can Tennessee's defense, which has been quite strong against the run thus far, slow down a great Gators run game and force quarterbacks Emory Jones and/or Anthony Richardson (who might be healthy enough to play after missing the Alabama game) to the air?
A potentially strange Big 12 race begins
In Monday's Week 3 recap, I noted that we could be only a couple of upsets away from a wonderfully chaotic Big 12 title race. There's still a chance that Oklahoma runs away with one of two bids in the Big 12 championship game; yes, the Sooners struggled a bit more than expected against Tulane and Nebraska, but there's nothing fundamentally and permanently wrong with their statistical makeup, at least not yet. But with nine teams in the SP+ top 50, any of eight squads not named the Sooners are entertaining hopes of sliding into the Big 12 championship.
If we're indeed only a couple of upsets away from chaos, there are plenty of interesting opportunities this weekend.
Texas Tech at Texas (noon, ABC/ESPN App)
Texas Tech has quickly jumped from 70th to 48th in SP+ behind a fun combination of aggressive defense and explosive offense. The Red Raiders sucked Texas into an old-fashioned West Texas bar fight last year, eventually succumbing 63-56, and early on they're better than they were a year ago.
No. 14 Iowa State at Baylor (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Iowa State remains the favorite for the second title-game bid, but you could easily make the case that Baylor has been better than the Cyclones early this season. After barely beating Northern Iowa and falling to Iowa, ISU righted its ship with an easy win at UNLV, but the Bears have been an efficiency machine (third in offensive success rate, seventh on defense).
No. 25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State (7 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN App)
Kansas State is 3-0 and back in the AP Top 25, but the Wildcats are six-point underdogs in Stillwater. The KSU run game has been ruthless thus far, but OSU's run defense is the best the Cats have faced.
West Virginia at No. 4 Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App)
Oklahoma is a big favorite over the Mountaineers, but Nebraska's bend-don't-break defense frustrated the Sooners' Spencer Rattler last week. While WVU's defense has had its aggressive moments, the Mountaineers contain offenses well, limiting big plays and forcing passing downs. It wouldn't be a total surprise if they make OU sweat for a while.
Week 4 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Liberty at Syracuse (8 p.m., ACCN/ESPN App): You're watching this one primarily because of Liberty quarterback Malik Willis, who is on pace for 2,600 passing yards and 1,200 rushing yards. But Syracuse's defense has been mostly brilliant to date and could make life awfully difficult.
Early Saturday
LSU at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN/ESPN App): LSU's resounding 49-21 win over a tricky Central Michigan team was a good step forward. But with games against Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama on the near horizon, a loss to Mississippi State could trigger quite a slide for the Tigers.
Missouri at Boston College (noon, ESPN2/ESPN App): In my happy place, every conference drops down to eight conference games and opens up more opportunities to schedule random, geographically strange matchups like this one. (The Alliance: Promising in this regard.) BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec's absence could tip the advantage to the Tigers, but only if they stop the Eagles' persistent run game.
Saturday afternoon
Rutgers at No. 19 Michigan (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App): We've been conditioned to expect letdowns from Michigan the moment it looks awesome, but the Wolverines have been phenomenal thus far in 2021. Can Rutgers force some mistakes from Cade McNamara and bring about said letdown?
Saturday evening
No. 24 UCLA at Stanford (6 p.m., Pac-12): UCLA's defensive deficiencies brought doom against Fresno State, but the Bruins' offense is still one of the country's most dangerous. Now comes a Stanford team that has passed brilliantly since Tanner McKee took over at quarterback.
FCS: NC Central at NC A&T (6 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN App): The more HBCU football you watch, the healthier you become, and one of the most underrated HBCU (historically Black colleges and universities) rivalries -- either Aggie-Eagle or Eagle-Aggie, depending on whom you ask -- resumes after a year off.
Nebraska at No. 20 Michigan State (7 p.m., FS1): Michigan State's offense has been a pleasant surprise, with Payton Thorne on pace for 3,000 passing yards and Kenneth Walker III on pace for 2,000 yards rushing. But Nebraska's defense indeed made life awfully frustrating for Oklahoma and Rattler last week.
D3: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (8 p.m., StretchInternet.com). The small-school game of the week pits two-time national champion UMHB and its absurdly prolific offense (172 points in three games) against an HSU team that almost took the Crusaders down last spring.
UAB at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN App): The "styles make fights" game of the week. Tulane's efficient attack, led by quarterback Michael Pratt and tight end Tyrick James, faces a UAB defense that couldn't keep up with Georgia but held Jacksonville State and North Texas to six combined points.
Late Saturday
Oregon State at USC (10:30 p.m., FS1): With Jaxson Dart filling in for injured quarterback Kedon Slovis, USC saved its season last week, charging back from 14-0 down to beat Washington State 45-14. Now Slovis is back and Dart is hurt? Whoever plays, the Trojans will have to score quite a bit to keep up with a potent OSU attack.