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College football bowl projections and analysis: Top matchups, playoff breakdowns and more

With the first full weekend of the college football season in the books, the bowl projections have undergone a shakeup.

In addition to predicting the matchups for every single bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide key analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, coaches under pressure to make a bowl, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and more.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

Playoff Breakdown

Bonagura: Alabama is the easy choice at No. 1 after the Crimson Tide rolled Miami, 44-13. The only choice was where to put them: the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl. Let's assume Orange. After beating Clemson, Georgia clearly belongs in the top four and under no circumstance would it play Alabama in a semifinal, so the Dawgs go to the Cotton Bowl. Neither Oklahoma nor Ohio State played as well it would have liked in Week 1, but they're still the teams best positioned to grab the other spots. Ohio State's 45-31 win at Minnesota trumps Oklahoma's 40-35 home win against Tulane, therefore the Buckeyes avoid Alabama.

Schlabach: Defending national champion Alabama and Georgia were the most impressive teams to me in Week 1. The Crimson Tide, despite having to replace starting quarterback Mac Jones, Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith and a plethora of other players on offense, didn't miss a beat with Bryce Young under center. The Tide's defense is going to be salty too. Georgia's offense wasn't nearly as good against Clemson, but I think it will be better once players like receiver Kearis Jackson and tight ends Darnell Washington and John FitzPatrick are healthy. Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Todd Monken were pretty conservative on offense against Clemson once they saw what kind of game it was going to be. I think we'll see more downfield passing from the Bulldogs against UAB this week. Ohio State and Oklahoma both had growing pains on defense in their openers, but I still think they're the next two teams in line.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Clemson

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Iowa vs. UCLA

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas vs. Texas A&M

Schlabach's take: Oklahoma and Texas officials say they're not joining the SEC until after their current TV rights deals expire with the Big 12 in June 2025. But Texas A&M fans might not have to wait that long to face their in-state rivals again. The Longhorns were pretty impressive in coach Steve Sarkisian's debut and looked like one of the better teams in the Big 12. If Oklahoma were to make the CFP, and the SEC were to get two teams in with Alabama and Georgia, it wouldn't be too far of a stretch for Texas and Texas A&M to meet in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.


Team knocking on the door of the NY6

Bonagura: Texas. The Steve Sarkisian era opened up with a 20-point win against a ranked opponent (No. 23 Louisiana) and while it's premature to make any bold proclamations about the Longhorns, the victory does make it easier to talk about them as a possible New Year's Six team. If Oklahoma reaches the playoff as projected, the Big 12 will send a replacement team to the Sugar Bowl, and based solely on the Week 1 results, Texas is a good pick for that spot.

Schlabach: The two L.A.-based Pac-12 teams came into the season with their coaches on the hot seat. But UCLA is already 2-0 after knocking off Hawaii 44-10 in Week 0 and LSU 38-27 at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night. USC was equally as impressive in a 30-7 rout of San Jose State at home. If Oregon doesn't play better than it did in a closer-than-expected 31-24 win over Fresno State, the Pac-12 favorite might reside in the South.


Bowl Season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. FAU
Schlabach: Ball State vs. FAU

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Army vs. Charlotte

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Charlotte
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Memphis

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alcorn State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Alcorn State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Kent State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. BYU
Schlabach: UAB vs. BYU

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Troy vs. UAB
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Colorado vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Nevada

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall


Coach under pressure to make a bowl game

Bonagura: The season couldn't have started much worse for Scott Frost than Nebraska's loss to Illinois in Week 0. It was a bad look at the time and didn't get any better this week after the Illini backed it up with a loss to UTSA. After beating Fordham on Saturday, it's hard to find five more wins on the Cornhuskers' schedule. If that doesn't happen, it's hard to imagine how he'll get to Year 5 -- and even Nebraska reaches a bowl, that might not be enough to save his job.

Schlabach: Nebraska's Scott Frost went from the hot seat to the frying pan after his team's disappointing 30-22 loss at Illinois in Week 0. The Cornhuskers bounced back with a 52-7 rout of FCS program Fordham on Saturday, but I've still got them out of a bowl game for now. Frost is 13-21 in three-plus seasons at his alma mater, including 9-18 in Big Ten play. We'll probably learn a lot about his future over the next five games, which look far more daunting than they did a few weeks ago. After Saturday's tricky home game against Buffalo, Nebraska plays at Oklahoma and Michigan State, which looked great in its opener, followed by home games against Northwestern and Michigan.


Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: SMU vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Wyoming

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Jose State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Stanford

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Troy vs. Ohio

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Buffalo

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Tulane

Bonagura's take: Even though Florida State lost to Notre Dame in overtime Monday night, UCF transfer quarterback McKenzie Milton's performance off the bench -- nearly three years after a gruesome leg injury that threatened to end his career -- to help the Seminoles extend the game was incredible. There's probably mixed feelings about Milton potentially lining up across from UCF to end his college career, but it would make for a unique story.

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Legion Field (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Houston
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Houston vs. Air Force

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Kansas State

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: Utah vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Miami

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Michigan State


Notable team in danger of missing a bowl

Bonagura: Washington. The Huskies made history by becoming just the fifth ranked team to ever lose to a FCS opponent with their 13-7 defeat against Montana. And if they can't beat Montana, it's hard to be confident they can reach bowl eligibility. Then again, the Pac-12 North went a combined 1-5 in Week 1, so there is some leeway.

Schlabach: Geoff Collins faced a monumental rebuilding job in transforming Georgia Tech's offense from a triple-option style attack under Paul Johnson to a more conventional one. Better things were expected from the Yellow Jackets in Collins' third season, but they got off to a forgettable start with a 22-21 loss to Northern Illinois at home on Saturday night. The Huskies, who were 18.5-point underdogs, went 0-6 in 2020. Tech still plays Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame and Georgia, so it is probably headed to a third straight season without a bowl game.


Dec. 29

Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Florida State vs. UCF

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Boston College

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. NC State
Schlabach: TCU vs. NC State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Miami
Schlabach: Auburn vs. North Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Minnesota

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Utah vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Virginia Tech

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Arizona State vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Pitt

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Liberty vs. San Diego State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Michigan

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Florida vs. Penn State

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. LSU

Date TBD

Redbox Bowl
Site TBD
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. California
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. California