With the first full weekend of the college football season in the books, the bowl projections have undergone a shakeup.
In addition to predicting the matchups for every single bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide key analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, coaches under pressure to make a bowl, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and more.
All times Eastern
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia
CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Playoff Breakdown
Bonagura: Alabama is the easy choice at No. 1 after the Crimson Tide rolled Miami, 44-13. The only choice was where to put them: the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl. Let's assume Orange. After beating Clemson, Georgia clearly belongs in the top four and under no circumstance would it play Alabama in a semifinal, so the Dawgs go to the Cotton Bowl. Neither Oklahoma nor Ohio State played as well it would have liked in Week 1, but they're still the teams best positioned to grab the other spots. Ohio State's 45-31 win at Minnesota trumps Oklahoma's 40-35 home win against Tulane, therefore the Buckeyes avoid Alabama.
Schlabach: Defending national champion Alabama and Georgia were the most impressive teams to me in Week 1. The Crimson Tide, despite having to replace starting quarterback Mac Jones, Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith and a plethora of other players on offense, didn't miss a beat with Bryce Young under center. The Tide's defense is going to be salty too. Georgia's offense wasn't nearly as good against Clemson, but I think it will be better once players like receiver Kearis Jackson and tight ends Darnell Washington and John FitzPatrick are healthy. Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Todd Monken were pretty conservative on offense against Clemson once they saw what kind of game it was going to be. I think we'll see more downfield passing from the Bulldogs against UAB this week. Ohio State and Oklahoma both had growing pains on defense in their openers, but I still think they're the next two teams in line.
New Year's Six
Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Jan. 1
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Penn State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Iowa vs. UCLA
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach's take: Oklahoma and Texas officials say they're not joining the SEC until after their current TV rights deals expire with the Big 12 in June 2025. But Texas A&M fans might not have to wait that long to face their in-state rivals again. The Longhorns were pretty impressive in coach Steve Sarkisian's debut and looked like one of the better teams in the Big 12. If Oklahoma were to make the CFP, and the SEC were to get two teams in with Alabama and Georgia, it wouldn't be too far of a stretch for Texas and Texas A&M to meet in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Team knocking on the door of the NY6
Bonagura: Texas. The Steve Sarkisian era opened up with a 20-point win against a ranked opponent (No. 23 Louisiana) and while it's premature to make any bold proclamations about the Longhorns, the victory does make it easier to talk about them as a possible New Year's Six team. If Oklahoma reaches the playoff as projected, the Big 12 will send a replacement team to the Sugar Bowl, and based solely on the Week 1 results, Texas is a good pick for that spot.
Schlabach: The two L.A.-based Pac-12 teams came into the season with their coaches on the hot seat. But UCLA is already 2-0 after knocking off Hawaii 44-10 in Week 0 and LSU 38-27 at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night. USC was equally as impressive in a 30-7 rout of San Jose State at home. If Oregon doesn't play better than it did in a closer-than-expected 31-24 win over Fresno State, the Pac-12 favorite might reside in the South.
Bowl Season
Dec. 17
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Toledo vs. FAU
Schlabach: Ball State vs. FAU
Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Army vs. Charlotte
Dec. 18
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Charlotte
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Memphis
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alcorn State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Alcorn State vs. South Carolina State
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Kent State
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. BYU
Schlabach: UAB vs. BYU
LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Troy vs. UAB
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Colorado vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Nevada
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall
Coach under pressure to make a bowl game
Bonagura: The season couldn't have started much worse for Scott Frost than Nebraska's loss to Illinois in Week 0. It was a bad look at the time and didn't get any better this week after the Illini backed it up with a loss to UTSA. After beating Fordham on Saturday, it's hard to find five more wins on the Cornhuskers' schedule. If that doesn't happen, it's hard to imagine how he'll get to Year 5 -- and even Nebraska reaches a bowl, that might not be enough to save his job.
Schlabach: Nebraska's Scott Frost went from the hot seat to the frying pan after his team's disappointing 30-22 loss at Illinois in Week 0. The Cornhuskers bounced back with a 52-7 rout of FCS program Fordham on Saturday, but I've still got them out of a bowl game for now. Frost is 13-21 in three-plus seasons at his alma mater, including 9-18 in Big Ten play. We'll probably learn a lot about his future over the next five games, which look far more daunting than they did a few weeks ago. After Saturday's tricky home game against Buffalo, Nebraska plays at Oklahoma and Michigan State, which looked great in its opener, followed by home games against Northwestern and Michigan.
Dec. 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: SMU vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 21
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Boise State
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Wyoming
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Texas Tech
Dec. 23
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: San Jose State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Stanford
Dec. 25
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Troy vs. Ohio
Dec. 27
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Buffalo
Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Tulane
Bonagura's take: Even though Florida State lost to Notre Dame in overtime Monday night, UCF transfer quarterback McKenzie Milton's performance off the bench -- nearly three years after a gruesome leg injury that threatened to end his career -- to help the Seminoles extend the game was incredible. There's probably mixed feelings about Milton potentially lining up across from UCF to end his college career, but it would make for a unique story.
Dec. 28
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Legion Field (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Houston
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Houston vs. Air Force
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: SMU vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Kansas State
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox
Bonagura: Utah vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Miami
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Michigan State
Notable team in danger of missing a bowl
Bonagura: Washington. The Huskies made history by becoming just the fifth ranked team to ever lose to a FCS opponent with their 13-7 defeat against Montana. And if they can't beat Montana, it's hard to be confident they can reach bowl eligibility. Then again, the Pac-12 North went a combined 1-5 in Week 1, so there is some leeway.
Schlabach: Geoff Collins faced a monumental rebuilding job in transforming Georgia Tech's offense from a triple-option style attack under Paul Johnson to a more conventional one. Better things were expected from the Yellow Jackets in Collins' third season, but they got off to a forgettable start with a 22-21 loss to Northern Illinois at home on Saturday night. The Huskies, who were 18.5-point underdogs, went 0-6 in 2020. Tech still plays Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame and Georgia, so it is probably headed to a third straight season without a bowl game.
Dec. 29
Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Florida State vs. UCF
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Boston College
Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. NC State
Schlabach: TCU vs. NC State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Miami
Schlabach: Auburn vs. North Carolina
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Minnesota
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Utah vs. Wisconsin
Dec. 31
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Virginia Tech
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Pitt
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Ball State vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Liberty vs. San Diego State
Jan. 1
Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: LSU vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Michigan
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Florida vs. Penn State
Jan. 4
Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. LSU
Date TBD
Redbox Bowl
Site TBD
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. California
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. California