Week 1 of the 2021 college football season was, as expected, a lot to take in. UCLA bullied LSU. Tulane nearly unleashed a late comeback against Oklahoma "at home" in Norman. Georgia-Clemson and Penn State-Wisconsin played defensive slugfests straight out of 2011 (or 1961). FCS' Big Sky Conference scored three wins over FBS teams and nearly made it four. Alabama destroyed Miami.
(OK, I got carried away there. That last one made plenty of sense.)
The days after Week 1 are prime, Grade-A opportunities for overreaction. We spend eight offseason months thinking we'll see one thing, after all, and then we potentially see something completely different. But even if we didn't get conclusive answers to our offseason questions, we still got some pretty interesting partial answers to which we can react or overreact. Let's talk about what we might have learned.
Are Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins for real?
Despite a string of tight defeats, UCLA improved significantly last season, from 79th in SP+ to 46th. Combined with one of the highest returning production percentages in the country and blue-chip transfers, like running back Zach Charbonnet (Michigan) and linebacker Ale Kaho (Alabama), it should have been clear that UCLA had a chance at another huge step forward in 2021.
The size of that forward step, however, was a mystery. And if we're being honest, it still is. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains enigmatic -- he was just 10-for-20 against Hawaii in Week 0, and in 20 pass attempts against LSU, he managed to combine four sacks, an interception and completions of 23, 35, 36, 45 and 75 yards. Plus, the ultra-aggressive Bruins defense is going to get caught with counterpunches a good amount this year.
That said, it's undeniable that UCLA has some damn studs in the lineup. Charbonnet has 19 combined rushes and receptions for 272 yards and four touchdowns so far. Greg Dulcich, one of the nation's most explosive tight ends in 2020, juked and ran over multiple LSU defenders on a 75-yard catch-and-run. Kyle Phillips broke multiple tackles on his game-clinching 45-yard score. And in the trenches, UCLA pushed and schemed its way to 7.3 yards per carry for its running backs. LSU's backs averaged 2.3.
💥🏈💥 @Greg_Dulcich ‼️pic.twitter.com/gT256oOfbH
— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) September 5, 2021
It's too early to declare the Bruins the clear Pac-12 favorite -- they have five conference road games this year (including at Utah, USC and Washington), not to mention home games against Arizona State and Oregon. But they have certainly backed up their top-30 SP+ projection and then some, and they are ridiculously fun to watch.
What the hell happened to Washington?
In his four seasons as either Washington's defensive coordinator or co-coordinator, Jimmy Lake helped to shut down some serious spread offenses. The Huskies limited Mike Leach's Washington State to 4.4 yards per play and 14.8 points per game in that span, and they held Graham Harrell's USC offense to 14 points in 2019, Gus Malzahn's Auburn to 21 in 2018, etc.
Like many successful defensive coordinators who think they have theoretically solved the modern college football offense -- former Michigan State head man Mark Dantonio comes to mind -- Lake elected to go a little bit old school when he took over as head coach in 2020, hiring John Donovan as his offensive coordinator. Donovan had spent four years as an analyst and assistant for the Jacksonville Jaguars since getting fired as PSU's OC after a frustrating 2015 campaign. Lake probably hoped he was getting a combination of physical collegiate know-how and new-fangled, pro-style ideas.
It appears he has gotten the 2015 Penn State offense instead.
In Washington's brief 2020 campaign, the Huskies moved the chains with a mixture of rushes on rushing downs and short, quick passes on passing downs. But big plays were almost nonexistent, and predictable tendencies led to lots of stalled drives and field goal attempts. It wasn't a disaster, but there was certainly reason to worry about what might happen over a 12-game season.
Against Montana on Saturday night, the Huskies carved out a nine-play, 78-yard drive to start the game ... then averaged 3.5 yards per play and went scoreless over the final 55 minutes. Dylan Morris averaged just 8.4 yards per completion, threw three picks and took three sacks. Starting running back Richard Newton averaged 3.6 yards per carry.
Bryce Young throws for 344 yards and four touchdowns in Alabama's 44-13 win vs. Miami.
Granted, a couple of key Husky receivers were out, and Montana's a great FCS program. But with an excellent defense and solid recruiting, it was easy to view UW as a serious Pac-12 contender if Donovan's offense was up to par. "Seven points against Montana" suggests it is not.
Were Georgia-Clemson and Penn State-Wisconsin driven by good defense or bad offense?
Georgia 10, Clemson 3
Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10
Georgia has finished each of the past two seasons first in defensive SP+, so it says something that we just witnessed the best defensive performance of the Kirby Smart era in Athens.
Even when you take Clemson's own issues into account -- new starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was facing an elite defense (that had eight months to prepare) for the first time, star receiver Justyn Ross was shaking off rust after missing 2020 -- this was staggering. The Tigers hadn't been held under 5.4 yards per play or 21 points in 42 games, and they managed just 3.0 and three, respectively, in Charlotte. Clemson receiver Joe Ngata caught six passes for 110 yards, but 54 other Clemson snaps gained just 70. Uiagalelei was sacked seven times. The Dawg defense even scored the game's only touchdown, a 74-yard pick-six from Christopher Smith.
Georgia's defense was so dominant that it's hard to know what else to take away from the game. Is Clemson's offense going to struggle this year, or was Georgia's D just perfect? How much of Georgia's own offensive issues -- 4.2 yards per play, only three offensive points -- was a product of genuine offensive struggle and/or elite defensive play from Clemson, and how much was because the Dawgs didn't have to take a single offensive risk? Georgia came into the game with a receiving corps severely limited by injury and threw mostly short and safe passes, but it was enough against a team that had little hope of scoring.
My initial guesses: Clemson's offense will be mostly fine but might play at only a top-20 level this year, Clemson's defense is a top-five unit that will still power an ACC title run, and Georgia's offense might still play at a top-15 level or so when it gets some of its receivers back. But that's all pretty inconclusive. The only thing we know for sure is that Georgia's odds of a third straight No. 1 defense are good.
As with Georgia-Clemson, we came into PSU-Wisconsin curious about what each offense might be capable of but knowing what each defense could do. The Badgers have ranked seventh or better in defensive SP+ for four of the past six years, while the Nittany Lions have ranked 15th or better for six of seven. That Saturday's battle in Madison was scoreless at half was only so surprising.
Things opened up a bit in the second half. New PSU offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich opened the big-play spigot -- quarterback Sean Clifford completed passes of 52, 49 and 42 yards, and Noah Cain broke off a 34-yard rush -- and the Nittany Lions scored 16 points. Wisconsin, seemingly in PSU's half of the field for most of the last three quarters, finally turned a couple of chances into points and gave themselves two different prime opportunities to win the game late.
Iowa scores its second touchdown in the first three minutes as Riley Moss returns an interception for six.
Ultimately, Penn State won because its quarterback was more able to find his playmakers in key moments. Clifford connected with Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith 13 times for 220 yards. Wisconsin's Graham Mertz was 22-for-37, but wideouts Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor caught nine passes for only 110 yards, and Mertz's overreliance on tight end Jake Ferguson (nine catches, 52 yards) was something PSU pounced on during late stops. Both defenses were excellent, but PSU's offensive upside won the day.
How worried should we be about Ohio State's and Oklahoma's defenses?
Ohio State 45, Minnesota 31
Oklahoma 40, Tulane 35
It wasn't just Clemson-Georgia and PSU-Wisconsin. More than two-thirds of FBS vs. FBS games in Week 1 hit the under, and while the national scoring average is generally around 28 points per game per team, it was only about 26 this weekend.
A couple of elite teams didn't get the "defense is a thing again" memo, however.
First, on Thursday night, Ohio State allowed 408 yards and 31 points to Minnesota. If you had told me beforehand that the Buckeyes would score on touchdowns of 71, 38, 56, 70 and 61 yards and score on a fumble return, I would have expected them to win by about 38 points. Instead, they were up just seven with five minutes left before the last of the long scores, C.J. Stroud to Chris Olave for 61 yards, put the 45-31 win away.
About 36 hours later, Oklahoma damn near coughed up a 23-point lead to Tulane. The Green Wave scored on four of five late possessions and recovered an onside kick with 2:17 left. But the Sooner pass rush kicked back in, a mad fourth-down scramble by Tulane's Michael Pratt came up a half-yard short, and OU survived.
Both teams' defensive performances created traumatic flashbacks for their respective fan bases -- Ohio State's because of how shaky the defense looked at times in 2020, Oklahoma's because of how much the Sooner defense held them back during playoff runs in 2017-19 -- but there might not be that much to worry about just yet.
For one thing, Minnesota's offense is good. The Golden Gophers have ranked in the offensive SP+ top 20 in back-to-back seasons, and Mohamed Ibrahim (30 carries for 163 yards) entered 2021 as one of the nation's most proven running backs. (Ibrahim suffered what might end up being a season-ending leg injury late in the game.) Minnesota passed the ball successfully at times despite missing top receiver Chris Autman-Bell, but Ohio State was missing its top two corners, too.
Tulane's might be good, too, but the Green Wave's success was also selective. Three of their five touchdowns came off of great field position (drives starting at their 45, OU's 42 and OU's 47), and after gaining 135 yards in their first 12 snaps, they averaged only 4.0 yards per play from there.
Honestly, you could almost draw as much concern from the OU and Ohio State offenses as anything. Ohio State indeed got five long scores from four different members of an incredible skill corps, but first-time starting QB Stroud was inconsistent, and his ability to handle pressure is still uncertain. And while OU still got enough from Marvin Mims (117 receiving yards) and Kennedy Brooks (87 rushing yards), their 5.7 yards per play was the fourth-worst average of their past 67 games.
Wait, if all these top teams are this vulnerable, does this mean we might be at the cusp of ... a CHAOS YEAR??
I spent part of the offseason attempting to will a 2007 repeat into existence, going so far as to create a chaos road map just in case. The level of vulnerability we saw from top teams, plus the number of "What the hell?" results that took place, both suggest we could be in line for some silliness.
That said, you get truly comprehensive chaos only if the No. 1 team is willing to help out. And while plenty of other teams looked shaky and uncertain, Alabama looked every bit as invulnerable as it did last season. You know, when it was fielding maybe the greatest team in college football history.
With loads of new starters and a new offensive coordinator, the Tide played what could still turn out to be a rock-solid Miami team and dominated. New starting quarterback Bryce Young went 27-for-38 for 344 yards and four touchdowns. New starting receiver Jameson Williams caught a 94-yard touchdown. The Bama defense sacked D'Eriq King four times and picked him off twice. Bama had three touchdowns over 20 yards, and Miami had one play over 20 yards.
It was a familiar-looking domination. And the only notes of encouragement I can give to the fellow chaos seekers out there are that (a) Miami did make 10 tackles for loss, and the right opponent could make life tough for Young and company if they're facing too many third-and-longs, and (b) 2007's preseason No. 1 team, USC, looked brilliant out of the blocks, too, before slipping up later on. But there's no question that one team stood out from the pack in Week 1.
What happened to North Carolina's passing game?
Virginia Tech 17, North Carolina 10
In Friday's Week 1 preview column, I talked about how some new talent needed to emerge for all-world UNC quarterback Sam Howell. Granted, this indeed turned out to be an issue -- Howell completed eight of 10 passes to Josh Downs for 123 yards but otherwise went just 9-for-22 for 85 yards with three interceptions.
The skill corps wasn't the biggest problem, however. Against a Hokie pass rush that ranked 14th in sack rate last year, Howell took six sacks in 38 pass attempts. (He was sacked just once in 24 attempts against Tech last year.)
UNC's offensive line was pretty average last year, and combined with Howell's own playmaking tendencies -- which is to say, he holds on to the ball too long sometimes, and some sacks are on him -- the Heels ranked 106th in sack rate allowed. He ran himself into trouble a couple of times on Friday, too, but a lot of the pressure Tech initiated was almost instantaneous. An experienced line didn't do its job, and when it did Howell didn't always have open receivers to target.
In theory, things will improve. Howell will get potential starting receivers Khafre Brown and Beau Corrales back from injury and will build a better rapport with the receiving corps overall. The line almost can't play worse, either. But each of the next two opponents, Georgia State (21st) and Virginia (10th), also ranked high in sack rate last year. If the Heels can't protect Howell better, he's going to take a lot more hits.
Exactly how high is Iowa's ceiling?
In last week's preview, I also talked about how ridiculously good Iowa became after starting 2020 with two tight losses. It pounded Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin by an average score of 35-12 and, over the course of just six games, charged from 32nd to 10th in SP+, the Hawkeyes' highest finish in 12 years. Quarterback Spencer Petras' play was uninspiring, but the Hawkeyes were so damn good at the things Iowa teams normally try to be good at -- line play, big-play prevention, punting -- that it didn't matter. Would the Hawkeyes threaten to hit the same ceiling in 2021 despite turnover on both lines?
The answer: a resounding, if partial, yes. Iowa RBs averaged 5.3 yards per carry to Indiana's 2.9, the Hawkeyes' defense allowed just three completions of greater than 12 yards, and Tory Taylor averaged a ridiculous 49.5 yards per punt. Thanks in part to a pair of Riley Moss pick-sixes, Iowa erupted to a 31-3 halftime lead and cruised, 34-6, despite intensely mediocre play from Petras (13-for-27 for 145 yards).
Granted, you're probably not going to get 14 points per game from your defense all season -- call it a hunch -- and at some point you'll probably need more than five catches for 38 yards from your wideouts. But since a 21-20 loss to Northwestern last Halloween, the Hawkeyes have won seven in a row, and only one of those games has been even slightly close. As far as I'm concerned, this is a top-10 team until proven otherwise. (Note: This message will self-destruct if Iowa loses at Iowa State in Week 2.)
So ... Northwestern's pretty bad, huh?
Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21
Possibly, but not in the way we expected. After Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats lost more of last year's production than any team in FBS, SP+ projected them to fall from 30th to 76th. The offense, so miserable in 2019, had lost most of the reasons for its 2020 improvement. Hunter Johnson, dreadful when called into action in 2019, won the starting QB job, while leading rusher Cam Porter was lost to injury in August.
Taking that into consideration, NU's offensive performance against Michigan State on Friday night might have actually been encouraging. The Wildcats gained 400 yards (albeit at just 4.9 yards per play) and drove inside the Spartans' 30-yard line six times. Two missed field goals and a turnover on downs limited the point total, but they still scored 21 points, more than projected.
They also allowed 38. MSU hadn't averaged more than 6.5 yards per play in 19 games but averaged 8.1 against a Wildcat defense that constantly took bad angles and seemingly blew quite a few assignments.
We might find out in the coming weeks that the Michigan State offense is indeed solid. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III (23 carries for 264 yards on Friday) had shown solid yards-after-contact potential last season, and the Spartans certainly flashed quite a bit of speed. But this was arguably Northwestern's worst defensive performance against a team not named Ohio State since about 2016, and the fact that it was also the Wildcats' first game without retired coordinator Mike Hankwitz -- Jim O'Neil replaced him in February -- certainly rings some alarm bells.
And what about Notre Dame's defense?
Notre Dame 41, Florida State 38
Generally speaking, Brian Kelly is more of a bend-don't-break guy. If Notre Dame's defense is going to be awesome in one category, it is going to be big-play prevention, and he's willing to sacrifice a little in the efficiency department to achieve it. But his recent Irish defenses have been a little more aggressive, and when he had to replace coordinator Clark Lea this offseason, he made a particularly aggressive choice: Cincinnati's Marcus Freeman. The Bearcats ranked fourth in success rate allowed last season, and while they occasionally got burned by a big play, it was worth it for all the three-and-outs they were forcing.
In his first game as Notre Dame DC, Freeman's Irish lived up to the all-or-nothing billing for a while. Florida State scored touchdowns on plays of 89 and 60 yards, but Notre Dame built a 38-20 lead thanks to three three-and-outs and three interceptions. Isaiah Foskey (two sacks) was awesome, as was all-world safety Kyle Hamilton (two INTs).
Justifiably, Freeman seemed to ease up on the pressure with the Irish up 18. That led to their near-downfall. Aiming to avoid handing FSU easy points, they instead allowed a 15-play, six-minute touchdown drive late in the third quarter and early in the fourth. It cut their lead to 38-28, but in the process it seemed to steal their legs. With the offense suddenly unable to move the ball, a tired and increasingly conservative Irish defense then fell victim to McKenzie Milton's late-game heroics. FSU drove 88 yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to three, then drove 46 yards to send the game to OT.
Notre Dame somehow defied the script-writers to win in OT, but FSU ended up with 442 yards at 6.0 yards per play. That's the most yards and points they'd given up to someone other than Clemson in two full seasons.
Is there a problem? I'm not convinced. The Irish didn't lose the plot until situational weirdness came around late in the game. They are still without five of last year's seven-or-so best play-makers, and that could catch up to them, but we'll give Freeman and this defense a pass for now.