Ohio State coach Ryan Day has tried not to spend too much time thinking about how a six-game schedule could impact the Buckeyes' place in the College Football Playoff.
"We obviously wish we were playing every week," he told reporters on Sunday. "We wish we were playing back in September, but that's not the kids' fault. They've done everything we've asked them to do."
A last-minute rule change paved the way for the Buckeyes to play in the Big Ten title game on Saturday against Northwestern, giving Ohio State one more chance to impress the selection committee. While every conference championship game has the potential to shake up the top four on Selection Day, there might not be a team more heavily scrutinized than Ohio State.
If the Buckeyes beat Northwestern, how they win could play a role in the final ranking.
"I don't think there's any other sport in the world where anything other than winning matters," Day said. "It's very unique that way. If you were to win by one point in the NFL every week and go undefeated and you win the Super Bowl, that's all that matters. College football is different, and this year it's even more strange."
That makes it even more unpredictable. How will the committee decide between a six-win Ohio State team and another contender that might have played 11 games?
Here's a look at how the top conference title games could impact Selection Day, including a "chaos factor," with a score of 5 having the greatest potential to disrupt.
Big Ten championship: No. 14 Northwestern vs. No. 4 Ohio State
How to watch: Saturday, noon ET, Fox
If Northwestern wins: Ohio State would almost certainly fall out of the top four -- it doesn't have enough on its six-game résumé to compensate for losing the game that matters the most. This could cause a migraine for the committee, though: What happens if Ohio State and Clemson lose? The committee could have a top four that includes Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Cincinnati -- unless it thinks the Big 12 or Pac-12 champion is better than any of those teams. It would be hard for members of the committee to justify a two-loss Clemson team that didn't win its conference this year, but they would probably still discuss it.
If Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes aren't a lock for the No. 4 spot, but they would have bolstered their case by adding the Big Ten title to their résumé. Even if Notre Dame loses, it's possible the current top four remains unchanged in some order (Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State). Florida's loss to LSU helped the Buckeyes tremendously, but there is still a chance the SEC gets two teams in -- only now No. 5 Texas A&M has the greater chance of joining the club.
The committee uses conference championships as one of the tiebreakers when comparing otherwise similar teams. Here's the catch: Tiebreakers are used only if teams are comparable. Would those on the committee even deem a six-win team and an 8-1 team comparable? If not, they don't need to use the tiebreakers.
FPI says: Ohio State has a 91% chance to beat Northwestern.
Chaos factor: 5.
Ohio State has been the X factor this season, and win or lose, that doesn't change. The fourth spot will be up for debate.
ACC championship: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
How to watch: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ABC
If Clemson wins: The Tigers would be in as a one-loss ACC champion, possibly jumping into the No. 2 spot if Alabama wins the SEC and stays at No. 1. According to ESPN's FPI, the Irish would finish in the top three in strength of record even with a loss. The selection committee would consider both teams for semifinal spots, and Notre Dame would be right back where it usually is as an independent -- hoping its résumé and game film is enough to compensate for not having a conference title.
"Will our players understand that if they win that they're going to be in the playoffs? Sure, they get that, but they don't go around thinking, 'Or if we lose ...' That's just not how we think," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said. "We're thinking about winning the ACC championship, so all of our time and all of our energy is about this game and winning this football game."
If Notre Dame wins: The Irish would cement their spot in the top four, and could even move up to No. 1 if somehow Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, and while it's possible, it's unlikely for Clemson. Without a win against the Irish, the Tigers' best win would be a convincing 42-17 win against Miami on Oct. 17. Boston College and Pitt are the only other FBS opponents above .500 that they have beaten. A Notre Dame win would give Ohio State's chances a boost because it would be better for the Buckeyes to get in the top four with the Irish than to enter a debate with them.
FPI says: Clemson has a 71% chance to beat Notre Dame.
Chaos factor: 4.
If Clemson wins, the selection committee will consider both teams for the semifinals, but the bigger potential for disruption is if Clemson loses, because it would open the door for another team to enter the conversation.
SEC championship: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 6 Florida
How to watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, CBS
If Alabama wins: The Tide keep the No. 1 seed, and the Gators are eliminated.
If Florida wins: Alabama almost certainly still finishes in the top four, and the two-loss Gators could become the first SEC champion to be left out of the playoff. (Or, in what would be an extremely controversial decision, the Gators could become the first two-loss team to get into the playoff.) Following the loss to LSU, Florida's chances of making the CFP dropped to under 1%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Alabama, though, would still finish in the top three in strength of record even with a loss, according to FPI. It will be interesting to see how far the Gators drop in the fourth playoff ranking Tuesday night.
FPI says: Alabama has an 89% chance to beat Florida.
Chaos factor: 1.
Alabama looks like a lock either way, and Florida hasn't looked capable of upending the Tide, particularly on defense.
Big 12 championship: No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Iowa State
How to watch: Saturday, noon ET, ABC
If Oklahoma wins: The Sooners would have avenged their 37-30 regular-season loss at Iowa State on Oct. 3, but it's far-fetched to think it would be enough to catapult them into the top four. At the very least, Notre Dame has to win, and it would obviously help if Northwestern upset Ohio State, but Texas A&M would have to lose to Tennessee as well. And Cincinnati would have to lose to Tulsa, and ...
If Iowa State wins: The Cyclones would still need help, but they've got a better shot than the Sooners based on their current No. 7 position. They should move up on Tuesday to the No. 6 spot in place of the Gators, who lost to LSU. Can the Cyclones keep their lead on Cincinnati, though, if the Bearcats also win a conference title on Saturday?
FPI says: Oklahoma has a 66% chance to beat Iowa State.
Chaos factor: 1.
Both of these teams are long shots, and their playoff chances depend on chaos above them, not in their own game.
Pac-12 championship: Oregon vs. No. 15 USC
How to watch: Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
If Oregon wins: The Pac-12 would be eliminated from the top-four discussion. The league is already playing in the shadows of serious contenders, and Oregon isn't even regarded by the committee as a top-25 team entering the game. A win over USC -- title or not -- isn't going to transform the 3-2 Ducks into top-four material. They will have played only six of seven games and lost two of them.
If USC wins: The Trojans would at least be considered by the selection committee and could argue their 6-0 record was more difficult to achieve than Ohio State's 6-0 record. The difference? USC squeaked by almost every opponent, while the Buckeyes dominated most of theirs.
FPI says: USC has a 75% chance to beat Oregon.
Chaos factor: 2.
While USC would be discussed, the reality is that the Trojans are good, not great. They don't match up on film or statistically with the other contenders, including Ohio State.
AAC championship: No. 24 Tulsa vs. No. 8 Cincinnati
How to watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
If Tulsa wins: The AAC's improbable shot at finishing in the top four is officially crushed, and it opens the door for the Sun Belt to earn the coveted New Year's Six bowl bid, which is given to the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The question is how far Cincinnati would fall with the loss, which also depends in part on how the game unfolds.
If Cincinnati wins: The Bearcats would punctuate their playoff résumé with a conference title against a ranked opponent, but they would still have to hope for some combination or all of the following: Notre Dame beats Clemson, Texas A&M loses to Tennessee, Iowa State loses to Oklahoma and/or Ohio State loses to Northwestern.
FPI says: Cincinnati has an 80% chance to beat Tulsa.
Chaos factor: 2.
This game doesn't impact any other playoff contenders so the ranking is low, but because it can alter the New Year's Six bowl picture -- and Cincinnati can officially be eliminated from the playoff conversation with a loss -- it's not worthy of the bottom score.
Sun Belt championship: No. 19 Louisiana vs. No. 13 Coastal Carolina
How to watch: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
If Louisiana wins: Coastal Carolina's dream season comes to a screeching halt, and the Chanticleers finish 11-1. Their chances of earning a spot in a New Year's Six bowl will probably fade, too, but it will depend in part on how Cincinnati fares against Tulsa.
If Coastal Carolina wins: According to ESPN's FPI, there's still a 20% chance the Sun Belt will earn the Group of 5's spot to a New Year's Six bowl. If Cincinnati loses to Tulsa -- especially if it's a lopsided loss -- the Chanticleers could close the gap. At No. 13, Coastal Carolina doesn't have too far to climb. Assuming the Pac-12 champion finishes outside of the top 12 this year, Coastal Carolina would need a top-11 finish to go to an NY6 bowl. That can happen with Cincinnati. The Bearcats can represent the Group of 5 as its highest-ranked conference champion, and Coastal Carolina can earn a spot based on its CFP ranking alone.
FPI says: Coastal Carolina has a 57% chance to beat Louisiana.
Chaos factor: 1.
This game has no impact on the CFP, but a top-11 finish isn't unrealistic.