Championship week in college football is finally, and mercifully, here.
Nothing has been easy about the 2020 season, especially during the past month, but the league title matchups are set and several will factor into the final College Football Playoff selections. Some pairings have been known for a while, even if not officially confirmed, while the Pac-12 announced only Monday that Oregon will replace Washington and face USC on Friday in Los Angeles.
The Pac-12 teams aren't CFP contenders, but the ACC and SEC title game participants are. If No. 3 Clemson and No. 6 Florida take down No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 1 Alabama, respectively, the top four could come from only those leagues. Ohio State, meanwhile, aims for its fourth consecutive Big Ten championship despite playing just five games. The fourth-ranked Buckeyes face No. 14 Northwestern in Indianapolis for the second time in three seasons.
The Big 12 title game surprisingly has some CFP intrigue after two-loss Iowa State vaulted to No. 7 in last week's rankings. If the Cyclones beat No. 11 Oklahoma for the second time, and get help in front of them, they could enter the top-four discussion.
The CFP outlook isn't as sunny for Cincinnati, which slipped to No. 8 last week and has not played since Nov. 21 because of COVID-19 issues. But the Bearcats get a résumé-boosting opportunity in the AAC title game against No. 24 Tulsa.
I spoke to coaches to help break down the Power 5 championship games, as well as the AAC contest. These scouting reports are based on who is known to be available, although every coach mentioned how COVID-19 could impact rosters.
Let's dive in, starting with the two most important matchups.
ACC: No. 2 Notre Dame (10-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson (9-1)
Details: 4 p.m. ET Saturday in Charlotte, North Carolina, ABC
Line: Clemson by 10.5
Last meeting: Notre Dame won 47-40 in two overtimes Nov. 7 at home
These teams delivered the game of the year in college football, which featured outstanding quarterback play, several defensive highlights and a field storm after Notre Dame took down the top-ranked Tigers. The big difference this time is Trevor Lawrence will be calling signals for Clemson.
Freshman D.J. Uiagalelei, who filled in for Lawrence, produced the highest passing yards total (439) Notre Dame has ever allowed. But coaches don't diminish the presence of the projected No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
"Trevor Lawrence being back is going to be a big thing," an ACC coach said. "There's a drop-off after him."
Notre Dame's path to victory involves controlling the line of scrimmage, where it appears to have an edge. In the first meeting, the Irish flustered Clemson star running back Travis Etienne, who had just 28 rushing yards on 18 carries and had a fumble that star linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah returned for a touchdown. Notre Dame allows fewer than 100 rushing yards per game (99.7), and had held six consecutive teams under 100 until Syracuse gained 229 (including an 80-yard touchdown) in the regular-season finale.
"Clemson's O-line isn't as good as I thought they were," said an ACC coach who faced the Tigers. "I worry about Clemson being able to run the football. Notre Dame is going to be able to stop the run up front with maybe six guys, where other teams are going to need that seventh guy because they're not as talented."
Coaches have great respect for Clemson's program, players and coaches, but all season, they've talked about the 2020 Tigers as not one of Dabo Swinney's best outfits. Left tackle Jackson Carman is regarded as Clemson's only elite offensive lineman. The defensive line is talented but young with two true freshman starters in Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee.
Clemson's defense should be healthier than it was in the first meeting, when defensive tackle Tyler Davis and linebackers James Skalski and Mike Jones Jr. all sat out with injuries.
"From Clemson's perspective, they're thinking, 'If we can score 40, we're not going to lose again. We won't be without our linebacker, we won't be without some of the guys we were missing. We've got a better feel for what Ian Book's all about,'" a Power 5 coordinator said.
Book was brilliant in the first Clemson game, especially with his scrambling, as he rushed for 67 yards and threw for 310. The signature win also elevated the senior's play. Book completed 69.1% of his passes and averaged 62 yards rushing in Notre Dame's final three regular-season games.
"I don't think Book has the confidence to throw the ball into tight coverage, but he's such a great scrambler," an ACC coach said. "The dude ain't slow at all. He's fast and he's smart. He's got good pocket presence. That's something they've got to worry about."
ACC coaches consider Notre Dame's offensive line to be the league's best. Owusu-Koramoah and safety Kyle Hamilton lead an Irish defense that has 28 sacks and 81 tackles for loss. But coaches ultimately most think Lawrence's return and Clemson's urgency will be the difference.
"It's hard to beat a team twice," an ACC coach said. "If I had to put my money on it, I'd say Trevor Lawrence is going to come out and have a hell of a ballgame and Clemson's going to win."
SEC: No. 1 Alabama (10-0) vs. No. 6 Florida (8-2)
When: 8 p.m. ET Saturday in Atlanta, CBS
Line: Alabama by 17
Last meeting: Alabama won 54-16 in the 2016 SEC championship on Dec. 3, 2016
The game lost some luster after Florida's 37-34 home loss to 3-5 LSU on Saturday, which snapped a six-game winning streak for the Gators. Florida's loss exposed flaws that Alabama should exploit, but the Gators are still the type of team built to truly challenge the Tide.
Quarterback Kyle Trask, tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Kadarius Toney can match Alabama's triple threat of quarterback Mac Jones, wide receiver DeVonta Smith and running back Najee Harris. Alabama and Florida lead the SEC in scoring, ranking third and 10th nationally.
"Matchup nightmares all across the board, Pitts and Toney," an SEC coach said. "Alabama's got theirs, with their guys.
The prevailing question is which defense can deny scoring opportunities and, ideally, create takeaways. Trask's streak of four games without an interception ended Saturday when he was picked off twice.
"Obviously, the key is who can get more stops," an SEC coordinator said. "That's where I have a little bit more confidence in Bama."
An SEC coach added: "Will Florida stop them two or three times? I think so. Just because I think [defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is] really good. But consistently, no."
Florida's potency on offense suggests it could follow the Ole Miss plan against Alabama. Ole Miss traded touchdowns with Alabama for three-plus quarters before the Tide pulled away in the final 10 minutes. Alabama outgained the Rebels 723-647.
But an SEC defensive coordinator didn't think Gators coach Dan Mullen would take that exact approach, saying, "Lane [Kiffin] had to go tempo, just tried to make that thing 60 to whatever. I don't know that Dan's necessarily going to play it like that. Dan's going to run his offense the way he runs it, and he's going to feel real confident about Trask moving the ball."
Neither defense has wowed coaches, but both units have their strengths. Alabama has held its past six opponents to 17 points or fewer, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards four times and allowing only 188 total yards to Arkansas on Saturday. As an SEC coach noted, "They don't have a dominant D-lineman," but linebacker is a strength with Christian Harris, Dylan Moses, Christopher Allen and Will Anderson Jr., a heralded true freshman who has five sacks and a team-high eight quarterback hurries.
Harris, Alabama's leading tackler, left the Arkansas game with a shoulder injury and his status remains in question.
LSU's youthful offense became the latest to gash Florida, which has allowed more than 400 yards five times and more than 30 points four times. Florida's defense doesn't really excel in any area but pressure, which is vital against Jones, who has been sacked just eight times and plays behind arguably the nation's best offensive line.
"Florida's got [Brenton Cox Jr.], who's an elite pass-rusher," an SEC coach said. "I'm not sure [Alabama has] faced an elite pass-rusher this year, so he'll be the one guy that maybe they can create something with."
An SEC assistant added of Jones: "When he's able to see it and is not pressured, he's really good. On the flip side, he hasn't been in a situation where he's been pressured, so we don't know."
An SEC defensive coordinator said Grantham must decide whether to consistently bring six rushers or drop eight and limit big-play opportunities for Smith, who, despite no Jaylen Waddle, is frequently getting behind defenses to average 16 yards per reception
"Florida's not the top-top on defense, but they're still really talented," the coordinator said. "[Alabama] haven't played a great defense since [Jaylen] Waddle got hurt."
Big Ten: No. 4 Ohio State (5-0) vs. No. 14 Northwestern (6-1)
Details: noon ET Saturday in Indianapolis, Fox
Line: Ohio State by 20.5
Last meeting: Ohio State won 52-3 at Northwestern on Oct. 18, 2019
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald joked Saturday that his team would be "underdogs by like 70" against Ohio State, which he called "a complete football team, all three phases." The Wildcats should perform better than they did last year, when Ohio State won by 49 in Evanston, but many matchups significantly favor Ohio State.
The Buckeyes average nearly twice as many points (46.6 PPG to 25.3 PPG) and 7.3 yards per play (to only 4.7 for Northwestern). Quarterback Justin Fields has been excellent in his second season (1,407 yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, 78% completions). Although Indiana quarterback transfer Peyton Ramsey is a massive upgrade for Northwestern, he completes 58% of his attempts and averages only 174 yards per game.
"Ramsey's a little better than Indiana gave him credit for," a Big Ten coordinator said. "He doesn't have a great arm, but he's got great anticipation, intelligence, he can see, he can process. He stands in there. He doesn't have a lot of throws where you go, 'Wow, he has a great arm,' but he processes well."
Northwestern's upset chances hinge on its defense, arguably the Big Ten's best, which has generated 16 takeaways. The unit thrives against the run, which isn't Ohio State's strength. But Fields' mobility could create problems for the Wildcats, who haven't defended the quarterback run as well as traditional runs.
In the 2018 title game, the Wildcats focused on keeping Ohio State's talented receivers in front of them, while sacrificing some aggressiveness. Coordinator Mike Hankwitz doesn't blitz much, but Northwestern has its most talented secondary under Fitzgerald and might have to take more chances. Indiana's aggressive approach paid off against Fields with three interceptions, although the Hoosiers converted none into points.
"What they do defensively, they're not as aggressive, they don't move around quite as much," a Big Ten coordinator said of Northwestern. "Indiana was able to confuse Fields."
Ohio State's defense emerges from an excellent performance, where the front seven "absolutely physically, fundamentally dominated" Michigan State, Fitzgerald said. Northwestern's struggling run game found an answer Saturday in freshman Cam Porter (24 carries, 142 yards, two touchdowns), who needs a strong encore against the Buckeyes.
The Wildcats' best chance is to control the scoring area. Their offense ranks ninth nationally in goal-to-go touchdown rate (14 TDs on 15 trips), while their defense leads the nation in goal-to-go touchdown rate (40%) and ranks second in red zone touchdown rate (27.8%).
Ohio State is rested and should get some players back from COVID-19 protocols, but the Buckeyes are still evolving after so few chances to play.
"We wouldn't even be halfway through the season, so it's bizarre," coach Ryan Day said. "We're still trying to figure out what kind of team we have here."
Big 12: No. 7 Iowa State (8-2) vs. No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2)
Details: noon ET Saturday in Arlington, Texas, ABC
Line: Oklahoma by 6
Last meeting: Iowa State won 37-30 at home against Oklahoma on Oct. 3
Both teams are playing better than they were in early October. Iowa State won two of its past three games by 45 and 36 points, respectively. Oklahoma has won six straight since falling in Ames, three by 28 points or more. The Sooners also have two stars, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins, who were suspended during the first ISU game.
ISU's defense, the team's signature unit for much of Matt Campbell's tenure, has allowed just 16.9 points per game since the OU win.
"Their D-line is one of the most underrated in the country," a Big 12 coach said. "In true passing situations, they're able to rush with a three-man front and still drop eight and get pretty good pressure."
The coach mentioned linebacker Mike Rose, who can pass rush and also limit screens and edge runs because of his size (6-foot-4, 245 pounds). Rose and veteran safety Greg Eisworth II solidify the defense, while linebacker O'Rien Vance provides another rusher and run stuffer. ISU's weakness is at cornerback but Eisworth and safety Lawrence White IV provide cover.
ISU's defense faces a Sooners' run game that has averaged 195.6 rush yards since the teams' first meeting. A Big 12 coach says OU will use formations with its tight ends -- Austin Stogner, Brayden Willis and Jeremiah Hall -- to put ISU's defense into more traditional looks.
"The Stevenson kid is a great matchup versus them because of his size," a coach said. "They try to funnel everything to [Eisworth] and [Stevenson] is big enough where he can wear on them. He's not going to break off a bunch of long runs, but he's going to get 5 or 6 [yards]."
Oklahoma reached ISU territory on all but two drives Oct. 3, but had to settle for field goal attempts four times and threw an interception that sealed the loss with 1:02 to play.
"If OU can just execute on offense, they'll blow them out," a Big 12 defensive assistant said. "Iowa State is a good team and they play well together, but if [Oklahoma executes] in the red zone, it's over."
Oklahoma's defense also has improved significantly against the run, holding four of its final five opponents to 95 yards or fewer. The trend bodes well against Iowa State superstar Breece Hall (1,357 rush yards and 17 touchdowns), who had 139 yards and two scores in the first meeting.
A Big 12 defensive assistant emphasized the Sooners' ability to pressure ISU quarterback Brock Purdy, who has strong numbers (2,272 pass yards, 17 touchdowns, 66.2% completions) but can be susceptible to pressure (three sack-fumbles, two lost). Perkins (four sacks, six hurries) has provided another pass-rushing threat alongside Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto.
"He's a good player, but when you can pressure him, he can be the thing that really makes them go or he can be a hindrance to them," the assistant said.
Added a Big 12 coach: "The strength in Oklahoma's defense is their pass rush. In true passing situations, they'll be able to overwhelm Iowa State's O-line."
Big 12 coaches love Iowa State's schematics and intangibles, but in terms of personnel, they give an edge to OU.
"I would say OU is a slight favorite, but it wouldn't shock me at all if Iowa State wins," a coach said.
"It will be a really good game," a Big 12 assistant added, "but from a talent standpoint, Oklahoma's ahead."
AAC: No. 8 Cincinnati (8-0) vs. No. 24 Tulsa (6-1)
Details: 8 p.m. ET Saturday in Cincinnati, ABC
Line: Cincinnati by 15
Last meeting: Cincinnati won 24-13 at home on Oct. 19, 2019
Many expected Cincinnati to be here, potentially with a zero on the right side of its ledger. Tulsa is seemingly the bigger surprise, but AAC coaches expected big things from the Golden Hurricane. Even last year, some told me Tulsa was much better than its 4-8 mark.
Tulsa's breakthrough this fall is because of its defense, which is unique both in scheme and personnel. Coordinator Joseph Gillespie runs a three-down look similar to Iowa State that features linemen such as Tyarise Stevenson (351 pounds) and Jaxon Player (290 pounds), and linebacker Zaven Collins, the 260-pound tank who could win national defensive player of the year. Tulsa is even big at cornerback with Allie Green IV and Akayleb Evans, who are 6-3 and 6-2, respectively.
Collins has four interceptions (two returned for touchdowns), four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, a safety and a forced fumble. Tulsa will need Collins and the entire defense to deliver its best performance against Cincinnati.
"Their defense, they're huge," an AAC coach said. "They've got a unique scheme and they've really done a good job recruiting players to fit what they're doing. Their offense is not very good, but they're really good on defense. They're built like Iowa State."
The problem for Tulsa is Cincinnati's veteran defense is even better. The Bearcats rank in the top 10 nationally in points allowed, yards per play allowed, yards per rush allowed, interceptions per pass attempt and red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
A back seven filled with playmakers -- cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant, linebackers Jarell White and Darrian Beavers -- will stress a Tulsa offense that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone and averages four yards per carry.
"Cincinnati's a little bit more complete," an AAC coach said. "Cincinnati is truly one of the best four or five teams in the country. They're good enough up front on both sides of the ball to be able to hang in there with people that are better than them."