Of all the things we haven't gotten in a college football season defined by the coronavirus -- crowds, key rivalry games, full depth charts, etc. -- at least we have been blessed with an abundance of incredible quarterback play among top teams.
Most primary College Football Playoff contenders have an elite quarterback, and quite a few of them have, at one point or another, made a case that they are the best of the bunch. So in celebration of this group, let's compare Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Alabama's Mac Jones, Florida's Kyle Trask, Ohio State's Justin Fields, Notre Dame's Ian Book and BYU's Zach Wilson.
Five of them pilot teams in the CFP top six, and the sixth QB's team, Wilson's BYU, deserves much better treatment from the CFP committee than it has received. They are a combined 42-1 in their 2020 starts and have completed 72% of their passes at 14.5 yards per completion, with a 127-14 TD-INT ratio and a 188.6 passer rating. Call this list whatever you want -- a ranking of the best potential CFP QBs, a ranking of Heisman Trophy candidates, a simple Best QBs list -- it's basically the same list regardless.
Within this list, let's compare and contrast. Who's better at what? Who might be the best overall? For each of the four categories below, I'll rank the QBs first to sixth, awarding six points to the first-place player, five to the second, etc. We'll tally it up at the bottom.
Best vertical passing
Mac Jones goes deep to DeVonta Smith, who notches his second touchdown catch of the night.
We start here because it's the sexiest attribute a quarterback can have (Lawrence's gorgeous flowing locks aside). With big plays being football's best cheat code, who throws the vertical pass like it's a 5-yard out?
1. Mac Jones: 4.6 passes per game of 20-plus yards, 57% completion rate, 26.4 yards per pass, 10-2 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
2. Zach Wilson: 4.3 per game, 69% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 7-0 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
3. Justin Fields: 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR on said passes
4. Kyle Trask: 4.4 per game, 57% completion rate, 19.9 yards per pass, 8-1 TD-INT, 99.5 raw QBR
5. Ian Book: 3.3 per game, 40% completion rate, 15.9 yards per pass, 1-0 TD-INT, 89.0 raw QBR
6. Trevor Lawrence: 4.9 per game, 38% completion rate, 16.1 yards per pass, 5-2 TD-INT, 85.2 raw QBR
Throughout this exercise, we'll have to adjust for BYU's poor strength of schedule and Ohio State's low quantity of games. It makes for a tricky exercise. But I gave the top spot to Jones here both because he has basically matched Wilson's per-pass average and because, in a larger sample last season, Fields wasn't quite as good at the long ball: 45% completion rate, 14.4 yards per attempt.
Jones has been otherworldly in flicking the ball downfield, and he's had the luxury of extremely open receivers. It has made him awfully hard to evaluate -- is he as good as his numbers say? Does he just have a really easy job?
Does that even matter? Safe to say, just about every Heisman-winning QB in the modern era had great receivers to throw to, and it's not Jones' fault that he's got DeVonta Smith and John Metchie at his disposal.
Trevor Lawrence puts an Ohio State defender on the ground with a juke and then busts loose for a 67-yard Clemson touchdown.
Perhaps the most interesting stats here are those of the bottom two players on the list. Notre Dame's offense is one giant, controlled detonation -- lots of rushing, lots of short-to-intermediate passing (the Irish are 90th in average air yards per pass), not as many big plays as the other title contenders. The Fighting Irish made plays when they needed to against Clemson and could do so in the CFP as well, but scoring is harder without chunk plays, and that could potentially catch up to them.
For all of Lawrence's strengths, his vertical passing is merely fine. He completed 38% of these passes last season, too -- when he still had Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross at his disposal -- and with an even worse 10-5 TD-INT ratio. His returns have diminished a bit when it comes to completing passes against man coverage as well. After averaging 9.4 yards per pass against man in 2018, he averaged 8.4 in 2019. He is at 7.9 with a 46% completion rate in 2020.
For now, we won't consider this a red flag so much as a feather in the cap of players who have outgunned Lawrence downfield.
Best situational QB (third downs, red zone)
What separates good offenses from great ones? Quite often, it boils down to two things: keeping drives alive when they begin to stall and turning scoring chances into seven points instead of three (or zero).
Two QBs stand out slightly in the situationals this season.
1. Fields: 71% third-down completion rate, 96.9 raw QBR on third down, 68% red zone completion rate, 98.8 raw QBR in red zone
2. Trask: 71% third-down completion rate, 95.5 raw QBR on third down, 70% red zone completion rate, 91.9 raw QBR in red zone
3. Lawrence: 61% third-down completion rate, 93.7 raw QBR on third down, 71% red zone completion rate, 89.6 raw QBR in red zone
4. Jones: 63% third-down completion rate, 81.1 raw QBR on third down, 79% red zone completion rate, 97.7 raw QBR in red zone
5. Wilson: 78% third-down completion rate, 81.6 raw QBR on third down, 68% red zone completion rate, 96.6 raw QBR in red zone
6. Book: 65% third-down completion rate, 91.3 raw QBR on third down, 45% red zone completion rate, 67.6 raw QBR in red zone
Defending against Ohio State is so demoralizing. In open-play situations (snaps between your 10 and your opponent's 30, aka the majority of the snaps from a given game), the Buckeyes are generating only 68% of their first downs on first or second down. That ranks 67th in FBS, inferior to most offenses on this list -- Bama is fifth at 78%, for instance, and BYU is 20th at 75%.
That seems like an opportunity to make stops against Ohio State, but then the Buckeyes convert 54% of their third downs in these situations, fifth overall. Fields is a nearly automatic third-and-medium converter. His arm allows the Buckeyes to space the field to extremes at times, giving him both open receivers and, when necessary, open running lanes. Since the start of 2019, he has run for 27 first downs in addition to the 48 he has thrown for. Add in the fact that, in the red zone, he's 15-for-18 passing (eight touchdowns, no INTs) and has rushed nine times for 63 yards and three more scores, and Fields is pretty much the perfect situational QB.
Trask is close, though. He's in no way a rusher, but you don't necessarily have to be when you're completing 71% of your third-down passes at 13.1 yards per completion, and when you're 40-for-57 for 21 touchdowns and no picks in the red zone. It helps to have wonderful situational targets like the best tight end in college football (Kyle Pitts) and one of the best slot men as well (Kadarius Toney), but again, we're not punishing guys for getting to throw passes to great players.
Best on the move
"On the move" can mean quite a few different things for a quarterback. Maybe it means designed rushes. Maybe it means your ability to scramble at the right moment. Maybe it simply means making plays with your arm outside the pocket. These QBs are all good to great in one of those facets -- well, five of six are, anyway -- but two still stand out.
1. Book: 54 rushing yards per game from scrambles (7.3 per carry), 27% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 52% completion rate outside the pocket, 81.8 raw QBR outside the pocket
2. Fields: 47 rushing yards per game from scrambles (8.2 per carry), 23% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 70% completion rate outside the pocket, 81.6 raw QBR outside the pocket
3. Wilson: 13.4 rushing yards per game from scrambles (9.3 per carry), 21% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 62% completion rate outside the pocket, 94.5 raw QBR outside the pocket
4. Lawrence: 11.9 rushing yards per game from scrambles (10.4 per carry), 31% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 47% completion rate outside the pocket, 47.4 raw QBR outside the pocket
5. Jones: 4.3 rushing yards per game from scrambles (3.4 per carry), 7% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 73% completion rate outside the pocket, 95.2 raw QBR outside the pocket
6. Trask: 3.5 rushing yards per game from scrambles (2.3 per carry), 14% of non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 59% completion rate outside the pocket, 53.4 raw QBR outside the pocket
Jones and Trask are easily the most ... statuesque quarterbacks of the group, to put it diplomatically, though Jones has shown quite a bit of skill in drifting out of the pocket and buying space to wait for receivers to get open. He might be the best outside-the-pocket passer of the bunch.
The four players above him, though, are dangerous with both arm and legs.
Book's legs have been one of the biggest revelations of 2020. His scrambling ability has always been pretty good -- he averaged 5.5 yards per carry on scrambles in 2018 and 7.8 last season -- but he's using his legs more in this fashion, and his success in doing so has helped to open up the passing game. He's averaging a career-high 7.6 yards per dropback (which includes scrambles) this season despite the fact that his actual passing outside of the pocket has been pretty average.
Players like Fields and Lawrence are pretty tough to grade in this way. We've seen their athleticism and running ability in action, but they don't actually run all that much, especially Lawrence. He did this in probably the second-biggest win of his career ... but he rushes only about three times per game. Clemson doesn't play the "Run Trevor" card unless it has to. He still gets dinged here for what has been mediocre passing outside of the pocket. Again, he doesn't do it much because he's good inside the pocket, but this still isn't a strength.
Fewest mistakes
1. Jones: 0.8% interception rate, 2.9% sack rate, 83% catchable passes
2. Trask: 1.1% interception rate, 2.8% sack rate, 85% catchable passes
3. Lawrence: 0.9% interception rate, 4.6% sack rate, 83% catchable passes
4. Wilson: 1.3% interception rate, 3.4% sack rate, 85% catchable passes
5. Book: 0.4% interception rate, 5.7% sack rate, 73% catchable passes
6. Fields: 2.7% interception rate, 9.6% sack rate, 88% catchable passes
Book's scrambling and improvisation can result in him running his way into sacks or throwing low-probability passes. That's clearly reflected here, though it bears mentioning that he also has by far the lowest interception rate of any of the six.
Fields' performance against Indiana has skewed the mistake stats pretty significantly against him. The Hoosiers both contained and confused the Buckeyes star, sacking him five times and picking him off three times in 35 pass attempts. It was maybe the most mistake-heavy game of his career, and since Ohio State has played fewer games than everybody else in this exercise, it skewed his averages quite a bit, even as he has thrown the highest percentage of what Sports Info Solutions defines as catchable passes (and even as Ohio State scored 35 points and gained 600-plus yards on IU).
Despite a general lack of mobility, though, the two players atop this list have been nearly mistake-free this season. Sure, they're protected by great lines and throw to wildly talented skill corps, but even when you get pressure on Trask and Jones, they usually find an open man and throw a catchable pass to him before you can sack either one.
Tally it up!
Of course, you cannot go wrong with any of the QBs above. Four different players ranked first in the four categories above, and four different players ranked last. They all have massive strengths and slight weaknesses. Using a simple 6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for the categories above, though, we get the following point total:
1. Jones 17
2. Fields 16
3T. Trask 14
4T. Wilson 14
5. Lawrence 12
6. Book 11
Considering the talent around him, Jones maybe has the easiest job of the bunch, but he's thrived in it to such a degree that damn near makes the No. 1 or 2 Heisman favorite underrated. We have underestimated him for basically 13 consecutive months, and he has quite possibly been the best QB in college football.
That Lawrence ranked fifth surprises me. This wasn't intended to be a "tear down Trevor" exercise, though if nothing else, consider it a reminder that, while he's likely to be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft, he's not a finished product, and he's not exactly a surefire Hall of Famer. His deep balls and his passing against man coverage both still have room to improve. He could probably stand to use his legs a bit more, too. But he also might be about a month and a half away from his second national title.
The quarterbacking at the top level of the sport this season has been incredible, and considering the teams most likely to reach the CFP, it's probably going to remain that way deep into the postseason.
Week 14 playlist
Here are 10 games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
All times Eastern
Friday evening
No. 25 Louisiana at Appalachian State (7 p.m., ESPN2). App State has at least briefly ceded control of the Sun Belt East to Coastal Carolina, but the Mountaineers are still stellar and could make the Cajuns' stay in the CFP top 25 a short one.
Early Saturday
No. 5 Texas A&M at Auburn (noon, ESPN). If Alabama beats Florida and Notre Dame beats Clemson in their respective conference title games, Jimbo Fisher's Aggies could be primed for a CFP spot. But they obviously have to win out.
No. 4 Ohio State at Michigan State (noon, ABC). With fewer games, the Buckeyes might need some style points to keep the CFP committee's attention. They could get some here.
Saturday afternoon
No. 12 Indiana at No. 16 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., ABC). The Hoosiers begin life without Michael Penix Jr., and against one of the best defenses in the Big Ten.
No. 6 Florida at Tennessee (3:30 p.m., CBS). The previous time these teams played in December, the Volunteers wrecked the Gators' national title chances. A repeat of that would be quite the upset.
West Virginia at No. 9 Iowa State (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Iowa State has all but clinched a spot in the Big 12 championship game, but West Virginia is 29th in SP+ and will throw a scare into the Cyclones if they're at all unfocused.
No. 13 BYU at No. 18 Coastal Carolina (5:30 p.m., ESPNU). HELL. YES.
Saturday evening
No. 3 Clemson at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ABC). Virginia Tech appears to be falling apart at the moment, but you'll want to watch this one for the simple fact that Angry Clemson might be the best, most enjoyable team in the country.
Baylor at No. 11 Oklahoma (8 p.m., Fox). We stopped talking about the Sooners a bit when they lost a couple of early games, but they're smoking hot, and Spencer Rattler is up to 11th in Total QBR. They're worth watching.
Late Saturday
UCLA at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1). I don't want to alarm anyone, but ... UCLA has been fun and awfully good so far this season! The Bruins are still the underdogs against what could be a high-quality (and low-game-quantity) Sun Devils squad, though.