What might be the biggest game of the college football weekend didn't exist 24 hours ago. On Thursday morning, Coastal Carolina announced that, following the COVID-19-related cancellation of its home game against Liberty, the No. 18 Chanticleers would instead be welcoming No. 13 BYU to town.
This is a game with pretty serious New Year's Six bowl implications, and it pits two of college football's most enjoyable 2020 teams against each other. And ESPN's College GameDay was already heading to Coastal anyway! This is truly an exciting development for a season that desperately needs as many of those as possible.
Here are five things regarding the game itself and what we could potentially (hopefully) see in the future.
1. The most important factor: the Coastal run game
A couple of notable rankings:
Rushing success rate: Coastal offense 25th, BYU 2nd
Average third-down distance: Coastal offense 4th, BYU 66th
Just about any success BYU opponents have found this year has come through the air; the Cougars have snuffed out just about every opposing run game on the docket. They're not incredibly disruptive, but they stand up to run blocking well and swarm.
However, Coastal head coach Jamey Caldwell has for years crafted one of the more unique and interesting run games in the country by mixing a lot of option concepts and solid misdirection. Three Coastal running backs (CJ Marable, Shermari Jones and Reese White) are averaging a combined 28 carries and 148 yards per game, and quarterback Grayson McCall is adding nearly 50 non-sack yards as well. McCall can wing the ball around too, but Coastal's attack is very much run-first. BYU can create a potential advantage if McCall has to wing the ball around.
2. The second-most important factor: the BYU run game
Meanwhile, most of the Coastal success on defense has come against the pass. The Chants are 21st in passing success rate allowed but 71st against the run. End Tarron Jackson and tackle C.J. Brewer are disruptive, but you can run on Coastal.
And BYU has been able to run on everyone.
With all the headlines quarterback Zach Wilson (74% completion rate, 26-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio, fifth in Total QBR) has received, and deservedly so, it has perhaps distracted from how utterly dominant Tyler Allgeier has been.
Among the 60 running backs with 100-plus carries this year, Allgeier ranks eighth in yards before contact per carry (3.2) ... and fourth in yards after contact per carry (4.1). He's explosive as a one-cut-and-go back, but he's also a 220-pound road grader. And when he's getting a breather, 210-pound Lopini Katoa comes in and averages 3.4 yards after contact per carry with great pass-catching ability. This run game punishes you and makes Wilson's job much, much easier. Coastal will have to come up with a way to corral Allgeier and Katoa without sacrificing much in pass coverage. Easier said than done.
3. Who better catches up to the chains?
When these offenses are off schedule, it's the quarterbacks' time to shine. Coastal ranks fourth in passing downs success rate thanks to McCall (67% completion rate, 20-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, 13th in Total QBR), while Wilson and BYU rank sixth.
Both defenses are also strong on passing downs, though. BYU generates solid pressure without blitzing and creates numbers advantages in the secondary, and the Coastal pass rush, led again by Jackson and Brewer (15 combined sacks, 52 pressures, four forced fumbles and 20 forced incompletions/interceptions), will be the best Wilson has seen this year.
So which defense can make the opposing quarterback more uncomfortable? The answer will likely determine who has the field position advantage ... and perhaps the turnover advantage as well.
4. Every drive will matter
These great offenses both take their sweet time and dominate the ball.
Plays per game: BYU 68.1 (81st), Coastal 66.6 (95th)
Drives per game: BYU 11.4 (106th), Coastal 11.3 (112th)
We're not exactly talking about Army (10.3 drives per game) or Air Force (10.5) here, but it's close. And fewer drives could mean a pretty high-pressure environment for both teams. Whereas you get a couple of mulligans in high-possession games, any stop and any multi-possession lead could matter a ton when you're dealing with only about five to six drives per half.
5. Imagine a world with more games like this
One of my favorite inventions in college sports history was the long-lost BracketBusters concept, which ESPN put together from 2003 to 2013. It created a late-February opportunity for a college basketball mid-major, in need of a bit of a résumé boost, to pair off with another mid-major with pretty high stakes.
Because one of my shticks is stealing ideas from other sports and applying them to the college football landscape (hello, soccer-style promotion and relegation), I've long professed the need for something similar in college football. Imagine the following (in a post-pandemic universe):
The Saturday after the first set of College Football Playoff rankings is released is Bracketbuster Saturday ... or, if you prefer, BowlBuster Saturday.
Before the season, all FBS teams are paired off into two groups, one of which will get a BowlBuster home game, one a road game. Whoever's on the road one year will be home the next. For purposes of the example below, we'll just order teams alphabetically and say the top half are at home.
Using the initial CFP rankings, and filling in the rest with your computer ranking of choice (I will, of course, use my SP+ ratings for the example), we break teams into 20-team chunks -- the top 10 designated home and road teams, the next 10, etc. -- and pair them off for BowlBuster games. We'll say that the top-ranked home team in each pool plays the 10th-ranked road team, second vs. ninth, etc. (We'll also adjust to make sure conference mates don't play each other.)
Granted, the idea is a lot more exciting if you're a top team, but even low-ranked teams could use a win opportunity in November, so we'll do this for all 130 FBS teams.
Ignoring pandemic-related issues at the moment, such an exercise could have created the following pairings for this past Saturday:
No. 19 North Carolina at No. 1 Alabama
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 20 Coastal Carolina
No. 18 USC at No. 3 Clemson
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 14 BYU
No. 5 Texas A&M at No. 13 Iowa State
No. 17 Texas at No. 6 Florida
No. 16 Wisconsin at No. 7 Cincinnati
No. 15 Oregon at No. 9 Georgia
No. 8 Northwestern at No. 10 Miami
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 12 Indiana
Gosh, I don't know, do you think we may have gleaned some interesting information about teams like BYU, Texas A&M, Florida and Cincinnati with these pairings? Do you think it might have been a pretty dang amazing thing to see Ohio State traveling to Provo or, yes, Notre Dame traveling to Greater Myrtle Beach? Do you think this would maybe be a great thing for this sport from year to year?
(This would have also created matchups like Virginia at Arkansas, South Carolina at Akron, Rutgers at Hawaii and Stanford at Mississippi State. I see no downside to any of this.)
Because BYU and Coastal, two top-20 teams, just arranged a game on less than 60 hours' notice, we know it's possible. And because of the burst of excitement that followed this game's announcement, we know the idea would likely be a huge energy booster overall. Moving forward, there is officially no excuse for why something this creative and exciting couldn't come about.