If you've been paying attention, you know this year's college football coaching carousel is expected to be light. Most head coaches will be safe in this cycle.
Some top assistant coaches, meanwhile, are less likely to get a pandemic pass.
The financial crunch of the pandemic and coach-friendly contracts will discourage most schools from making changes at the top. But teams that are struggling, even amid an unusual and challenging season, likely will need to take action before 2021. As someone close to LSU told me a few weeks ago about the defending champs' woes this fall, "It can't be a situation where nothing is done. Something is going to have to be done."
That's what happens in big-time college football. There's too much money, pressure and interest to maintain the status quo when things aren't going well.
LSU is among the struggling high-profile teams that won't be making head-coaching changes, but likely will have to replace coordinators or other key assistants. Not every team listed below actually will shake up the staff, but all will be considering what to do to get back on track in 2021.
I avoided including teams with first-year head coaches, who are more likely to keep their staffs intact, especially after an unusual season (Florida State, Baylor). I also left off teams that overhauled their staffs last year, such as Texas.
Let's dive in:
TENNESSEE
Preseason AP ranking: 25
Record: 2-5
Who to watch: Offensive staff
Head coach Jeremy Pruitt's status is worth monitoring down the stretch, especially if Tennessee is motivated to make a run at Liberty's Hugh Freeze or another established coach. But Pruitt's remaining guarantee ($12.88 million) following a two-year contract extension earlier this year makes it more likely that Tennessee keeps him in 2021 and shakes up the staff.
Coordinator Jim Chaney, who came to Tennessee from Georgia in January 2019, is probably on his way out. What looked like a big-time hire for the Vols simply hasn't panned out, especially this season. Tennessee ranks 113th nationally in offensive points scored (18.1 PPG), 116th in third-down conversion percentage (32%), and 105th in both passing (184.3 ypg) and yards per play (4.98). In a season where offensive production is up, the Vols are headed the other way and not getting anywhere near the quarterback development needed to keep pace with Florida and Alabama.
"They're terrible on offense," an SEC assistant said. "It's brutal to watch. It's all about that one spot [quarterback] that's just so bad."
Pruitt already has made one staff change, firing defensive line coach Jimmy Brumbaugh after the fourth game. He likely will focus on offense and a coordinator hire that should shape a make-or-break season in 2021. The status of the rest of the offensive staff will be interesting. Pruitt is close with offensive line coach Will Friend, while wide receivers coach Tee Martin and running backs coach Jay Graham are both decorated former players at Tennessee.
Another factor is the recent news that eight football assistants were the only members of Tennessee's athletic department to decline pay cuts to address pandemic-related financial losses. Martin and Graham were the only assistants who took the reductions.
"It's a really bad look," an industry source said. "It's going to come up every time you lose in the next three or four years. Remember that time that everybody was in a national pandemic and nobody took a pay cut?"
LSU
Preseason AP ranking: 6
Record: 3-4
Who to watch: Defensive staff
LSU's rapid decline this season goes beyond the defensive coordinator change from Dave Aranda to Bo Pelini. Roster attrition is a major issue, as LSU's two-deep doesn't resemble the crew that won a national title in January. The defense showed improvement Saturday against No. 6 Texas A&M, but there have been problems from the start. LSU allowed an SEC-record 623 passing yards to Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello in a season-opening loss (Costello is now benched). Poor performances followed against Missouri and Auburn.
Coach Ed Orgeron was excited to hire Pelini, who ran a four-down, attacking defense that resonated more with Orgeron than Aranda's scheme. Orgeron loved what he saw in the preseason, saying Sept. 15, "We are so much better on defense right now than any part of the season last year." Those words sting now, as LSU has dropped from 32nd in points allowed and 30th in yards per play allowed last season to 73rd and 117th, respectively, so far this fall.
Pelini is signed through 2022 at $2.3 million annually, so a change this year would be a tough financial hit. Other than cornerbacks coach Corey Raymond, who also serves as LSU's recruiting coordinator, most of the defensive staff is fairly new. The offensive staff might not be spared, either, especially after Saturday's near shutout and an 11-point output against Auburn. LSU has really struggled to rush the ball all year, ranking 114th nationally (111.7 yards per game).
MICHIGAN
Preseason AP ranking: 16
Record: 2-4
Who to watch: Defensive staff
Jim Harbaugh's future is a constant source of speculation. His sixth season at Michigan has been a real slog. But Harbaugh still remains unlikely to be fired outright, and could be the one making the call on whether he's back in 2021 or parts ways with his alma mater in several weeks. Most industry sources think Harbaugh will return for the final year of his contract, with or without an extension.
But Harbaugh's staff likely won't be the same in 2021. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has been the most successful assistant of the Harbaugh era, coordinating defenses that ranked in the top four in many major categories each season from 2015 to 2018. But there has been a decided dropoff the past two seasons. This year, Michigan ranks 97th nationally in points allowed (34.5 PPG), 103rd in third-down conversions against (46.2%), 119th in interceptions per attempt (1%) and 107th in sacks per attempt (4.3%). Brown's blitz-heavy, pedal-down scheme is simply not working.
Michigan's defense really hasn't been the same since the 2018 Ohio State game, when it surrendered 62 points and 567 yards. A similar performance last year against the Buckeyes -- 56 points allowed, 577 yards allowed -- sets up this year's game Dec. 12, which likely will be a long one for Michigan's defense. Harbaugh loves Brown, who has two years left on his five-year, $5.4 million deal signed in December 2016. But change seems inevitable for a defensive staff that has slipped schematically and doesn't add a ton from a recruiting standpoint.
"If they get crushed by Ohio State at the end of the year, Don Brown probably moves on, which is crazy because Don Brown's had a top-10 defense every year," an industry source said. "They just get crushed in big moments."
NEBRASKA
Preseason AP ranking: Unranked
Record: 1-4
Who to watch: Defensive staff
One of my favorite things about Scott Frost's Nebraska homecoming is that he brought his entire coaching staff with him from UCF. You rarely see that type of loyalty, especially when a head coach moves from a Group of 5 job to the Power 5. But two-plus years later, Nebraska is way off track, sitting in last place in the Big Ten West and headed for its third consecutive losing season under Frost and fourth straight overall.
Frost parted ways with offensive coordinator Troy Walters after 2019, getting Matt Lubick to come out of coaching retirement as his replacement. Nebraska could look at changes on defense, a unit that has fallen off in talent and performance since the final years of the Pelini era. The Huskers defense has looked improved for stretches this season, even in Friday's 26-20 loss to No. 24 Iowa. But there are still performances like Nov. 21 against Illinois, which did whatever it wanted in a 41-23 win in Lincoln. The Huskers struggle against the run (103rd nationally, 204.4 YPG) and can't get off of the field on third down (114th in conversions allowed, 49.4%).
As a Big Ten assistant recently asked, "Are these guys ever going to take a step forward defensively?"
The passing game on offense might be the bigger issue for Nebraska, especially the lack of downfield threats. But the defense seems likelier to be the focus of upcoming changes. Frost is very close with coordinator Erik Chinander, who has worked alongside him since his time at Oregon. Line coach Tony Tuioti is the only defensive assistant who wasn't with Frost at UCF, joining Nebraska from Cal after the 2018 season.
VIRGINIA TECH
Preseason AP ranking: Unranked (second in others receiving votes)
Record: 4-5
Who to watch: Both sides of the ball
The situation is rapidly deteriorating in Blacksburg, where the Hokies have dropped three straight and four of their past five after a 3-1 start. Calls for change are starting, and coach Justin Fuente's future seems murkier each week. Fuente's contract likely will save him in a pandemic year, as he's signed through the 2024 season and would be owed $12.5 million if fired before Dec. 15 and $10 million after.
Virginia hosts No. 3 Clemson this week and then welcomes in Virginia, which aims for consecutive Commonwealth Cup wins for the first time since 1997-98. A poor finish for the Hokies means inevitable changes. The offense is decent -- ninth nationally in rushing, 16th in yards per play -- and Fuente maintains a hand in its performance. The passing game has regressed since 2018, though, so perhaps offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen becomes the fall guy.
Defensive changes also are possible for a unit that had no answers in losses to Pitt and North Carolina and doesn't translate strong sack numbers to other areas (109th in yards per game allowed, tied for 110th in first downs allowed per game). Fuente promoted Justin Hamilton, a decorated alum who only had one year of on-field coaching experience, to replace legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster. Linebackers coach Tracy Claeys is a more seasoned coordinator, and the defensive staff overall is fairly new to Virginia Tech.
PENN STATE
Preseason AP ranking: 7
Record: 1-5
Who to watch: To be determined
Penn State finally broke through Saturday, providing a bright spot in a season that can't end soon enough after the worst start (0-5) in the program's 134-year history. The Nittany Lions were hit with a flurry of bad news before the season, from star linebacker Micah Parsons opting out to standout running back Journey Brown being forced to retire because of a heart issue. The pandemic has impacted every team, though, and Penn State boasts enough talent to perform way better than it has.
James Franklin is safe after going 42-11 with a Big Ten championship and three AP top-10 finishes in the past four seasons. Franklin also is very loyal to his assistant coaches. While he has dismissed a few -- offensive coordinator John Donovan after 2015, offensive line coach Matt Limegrover after last season -- he generally resists full-scale changes. Although the defense isn't great, coordinator Brent Pry is a proven playcaller who has worked on Franklin's PSU and Vanderbilt staffs since 2011.
"I think Brent Pry has built up enough credibility to survive a tough year," an industry source said. "Their issues seem to be on offense."
Would Franklin unload offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca after just one season? Ciarrocca oversaw a record-setting offense in 2019 at Minnesota, and has a lot of respect within the league. PSU's offensive struggles aren't all his fault, but the unit is tied for 117th in red zone efficiency (46.2%) and tied for 119th in goal-to-go efficiency (50%). The Lions are still trying to recapture the magic they had under former coordinator Joe Moorhead. If Franklin doesn't see a turnaround on the horizon, he could seek another playcaller for 2021.
TEXAS TECH
Preseason ranking: Unranked
Record: 3-6
Who to watch: Defensive staff
Texas Tech dismissed Kliff Kingsbury and hired Matt Wells with the hope, at least in part, to become a more balanced football team. The Big 12 has been trending more in a defensive direction, as teams like West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and even Oklahoma are showing improvement. But so far, the Red Raiders are falling further behind. They still resemble the Kingsbury product, with less winning.
After finishing last in the league in yards allowed and ninth in points allowed in 2019, Texas Tech's defense continues to struggle. The Red Raiders allowed 50 points to Oklahoma State on Saturday, after surrendering 62 to Oklahoma and 63 to Texas earlier in the season. Texas Tech is now 119th nationally in points allowed (39.3 PPG), 113th in yards allowed (471 YPG) and 108th against the pass (275.9 YPG).
Wells is 7-14 at Texas Tech (4-13 in Big 12 play) and will enter a pivotal season in 2021. Don't be surprised if he shakes up the defensive staff soon. Coordinator Keith Patterson has been with Wells at three different stops, and co-defensive coordinator Derek Jones worked with both Wells and Patterson at Tulsa in 2006. But a new approach might be in order after the unit never got on track this season.
ARIZONA
Preseason ranking: Unranked
Record: 0-3
Who to watch: Offensive staff
Under normal circumstances, head coach Kevin Sumlin would be in major trouble. Sumlin is just 9-18 in two-plus seasons and has lost 10 straight games. Remember, Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez despite five winning seasons and a Pac-12 South Division title. A substantial guarantee -- $7.5 million if he's fired this year -- and an Arizona athletic department already dealing with pandemic-related financial losses means Sumlin should return for Year 4. The Pac-12's shortened season also works in Sumlin's favor.
But if Arizona goes winless -- the Wildcats face undefeated Colorado, in-state rival Arizona State and an opponent to be named later Dec. 19 -- some changes will be necessary before Year 4. Defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads is only in his first year, so Sumlin could look to the offense, which has struggled the past two weeks and lost starting quarterback Grant Gunnell to injury early in Saturday's loss to UCLA.
Veteran offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone has been with Sumlin since 2016 at Texas A&M. While Mazzone has been an offensive coordinator at eight Power 5 schools, he and his son, Taylor, Arizona's outside receivers coach, are the team's only offensive assistants with significant Power 5 experience. After a solid opening performance against USC, Arizona seems to be regressing quickly, scoring points in just three of the past eight quarters. Arizona is averaging only 22.3 points per game and 4.98 yards per play so far this season.