How much longer does Jim Harbaugh have as Michigan's football coach?

Believe it or not, this is Year 6 for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. Not too long ago, Michigan fans felt they had the guy who would surely bring the program back to its glory days.

Harbaugh arrived with an understanding of the program and a winning pedigree. But Michigan's dreams of competing for conference championships, reinvigorating the quarterback tradition and finally getting the best of rival Ohio State haven't become reality.

Harbaugh is 1-6 at home against the Buckeyes and in-state rival Michigan State, and he's 0-5 overall against Ohio State since taking over at Michigan. Outside of 2016, when the Wolverines lost to the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes in double overtime, and during the 2018 season with similar results, Michigan hasn't really been in contention for anything significant. The Wolverines are 0-11 as an underdog under Harbaugh, and they have now started to lose games when favored.

Michigan is currently 1-3 following three straight losses to Michigan State, Indiana and now Wisconsin. The Wolverines still have games against improved Maryland and Rutgers squads, a Penn State team that has won two of the teams' past three meetings, and No. 3 Ohio State on Dec. 12. ESPN's FPI favors Michigan in just two of its remaining four games.

Despite the bleak outlook, Harbaugh has been upbeat.

"I really like the team we have, how hard they play," he said Monday. "[I] want to see them play, want to give everything I can, every bit of energy and coaching, and so do all of our coaches, into those guys."

Michigan fans are having a hard time matching Harbaugh's enthusiasm. They're anxious for results, especially five-plus years into a coaching tenure that was supposed to transform the program. We spoke to sources in and around Michigan about why the program seems to be headed in the wrong direction, and what the future holds for Harbaugh at his alma mater.

How he got here

One of the knocks on Michigan is that the current roster doesn't feature as much talent as some of Harbaugh's past teams. That can all be tied to roster management and recruiting, which has been good but not great under Harbaugh.

On paper, there are some positives, including the 2016 class, which was ranked No. 6 overall and produced 10 NFL players. The staff signed five-star defensive lineman Rashan Gary and pulled linebacker Devin Bush away from Florida State, where his father had played.

The coaches followed that with another No. 6-ranked class in 2017, but that class had completely opposite results.

Of the 30 players signed in the class, only 11 still remain on the roster. From that list, two left for the NFL, two opted out, 14 transferred and one retired because of a medical issue.

"When you have a lot of attrition in a class of kids transferring out and not necessarily being a great fit, then you couple that with the top guys in the class [leaving] early to go to the NFL, it kind of creates that void of veteran leadership you always thought of as a staple at a place like Michigan -- your senior leaders, the program cornerstone guys that have kind of become synonymous with them," said an FBS director of player personnel.

In addition to the recruiting ups and downs, Harbaugh started out operating the team and the recruiting side too much like an NFL program.

His first coaching staff wasn't well-equipped to recruit the right way at a high level to build a college roster and long-term depth. It took some learning and understanding from Harbaugh to figure out how that would happen, which required making staff changes and some philosophical shifts.

He has brought in several younger coaches in tight ends coach Sherrone Moore, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and his son, Jay Harbaugh. They are now more equipped to recruit at a high level, which has helped in recent classes. However, those coaches are all on the offensive side, and some coaches notice a difference in Michigan's current offensive and defensive recruiting efforts.

"I think the [coaches] on offense are recruiting some great players they can win with and will do it, but I don't know about the defense," a Power 5 assistant coach said. "In college football, you have to fight to get those top guys, and some coaches don't want that. Your coordinators have to be leaders in that, and if your coordinators aren't pushing the position coaches to sign those great recruits, then it's going to be lacking."

Michigan has some obvious deficiencies at a few positions on defense that are showing this season, with the most glaring being at cornerback and defensive tackle. Some of those deficiencies can be traced back to what has happened with the team's past recruiting classes.

The Wolverines don't have any cornerbacks on the roster from the 2016 or 2017 recruiting classes. They had hoped to rely on fourth- and fifth-year players for leadership, but Ambry Thomas opted out before the season and three-star corner Benjamin St-Juste transferred.

The starters come from the 2018 class in four-star Gemon Green and three-star Vincent Gray. The corners in the 2019 and 2020 classes haven't had significant playing time yet.

"The weaknesses are the corners and the interior of the defensive line, that's where their recruiting has lacked," a Power 5 assistant coach said. "You can't go and win a Big Ten championship without having every position having guys. You can have one guy, maybe, but if you're lacking at an entire position, you're in deep s---."

Recruiting at defensive tackle has been head-scratching, to say the least. From the 2016 to 2020 classes, Michigan has signed only four true defensive tackles, and two have transferred.

Changes that Michigan made on the offensive side in accountability and strategy in recruiting are just not mirrored on the defensive side. Both units are struggling right now, but the offense seems to be headed in a better direction with some of the young skill players on the roster.

Running back Blake Corum and receivers A.J. Henning, Giles Jackson, Roman Wilson and Mike Sainristil will all help move the offense toward what Michigan wants to accomplish.

The same can't be said for some key areas on defense, given the way the defensive staff has recruited in recent years.

Can Michigan still turn a corner?

Harbaugh struck a surprisingly hopeful tone after the Indiana loss and again on Monday. He praised the team's talent, preparation and effort, and detailed individual progress from young players such as quarterback Joe Milton, defensive linemen Kris Jenkins and Gabe Newberg, linebacker David Ojabo, wide receivers Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, and offensive linemen Karsen Barnhart and Zak Zinter.

He spoke like a coach overseeing a young, developing team. And he may be right. The difficulty is reconciling Harbaugh's optimism with the reality of being in Year 6 and headed toward a possible losing season. Since Michigan likely is out of the Big Ten East Division race and has only five regular-season games left, the youth movement could be accelerated even further.

"Just get in there and get some reps, get the lip quiver a little bit and the snot bubble coming out of the nose," Harbaugh said. "Go play aggressive, play hard, three plays and then come out, and then if you're playing well, get another three. To help us win this next game, have aggressive, fresh guys out there."

The most important position to help win that next game is quarterback, where Michigan is still developing with Milton.

Milton is in his third year in the program, but prior to this season, he had only 12 pass attempts and 47 yards in eight games. He is just now getting real, live game reps that will ultimately help his development and the offense moving forward.

"I just don't think Joe Milton is ready," a Power 5 assistant coach said. "He's highly talented, but this year is going to be a growing pain for him. I think next year, they'll have something there with him and some of the legit weapons they have on offense, but it's just going to be about the growth of Milton."

Coaches like Milton's upside. Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, echoing Gattis' comments from the preseason, said Wednesday, "His best plays scare the hell out of you."

A Big Ten coach added of the junior: "He has made some real good throws. He's pretty good under pressure. He's a stud, just young."

Michigan's overall inexperience is also contributing to the team's inability to play fast and trust its instincts and ability. Coaches try to get their players to let go and trust their technique, but Harbaugh has pointed out that for whatever reason, his players aren't translating it to games.

"We tell our guys, 'Don't wait for the next guy to make a play.' If you're not a great player, and it's too fast for you, that's what you do," a Power 5 assistant said. "It's natural, the game is too violent and too fast and you're going to hope that the guy next to you makes the play. That's why you recruit the guys that play with that confidence, that aren't going to wait on anyone, they're going to go make that play."

Although the personnel outlook on offense is better, there remain some schematic concerns. In 2019, Gattis' first season as coordinator, Michigan initially struggled to establish an identity before beginning a strong surge in mid-October.

Gattis, a career wide receivers coach, continues to push a speed-in-space philosophy. It translated in the season-opening win at Minnesota, as Michigan scored 49 points and averaged 15 yards per completion. Although Michigan's passing numbers remain solid, the Wolverines rushed for just 13 yards on 18 attempts against Indiana. Remove rushes of 70 and 66 yards in the Minnesota win, and Michigan is averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt with Milton (25) as the leading ball carrier.

"They want to run the football," Leonhard said. "Other teams have jumped ahead the last couple games and taken them out of their rhythm. That's the biggest thing that's come up. They want to be physical and run the football and play-action off of that.

"They've had to kind of get out of their system."

Harbaugh's involvement in the offensive structure has been a theme throughout his tenure, especially as he has churned through coordinators. Fullback Ben Mason's continued role this season "is a Jim thing," one coach noted.

"You're either spread or not spread," a Power 5 head coach said. "They kind of held on to a lot of the power game and the spread game. They're simpler than they used to be, for sure, but I think [Harbaugh] has a hard time giving up that whole multiplicity stuff that he used to be involved in. If you want to play fast, you've got to keep it simple."

Still, the offense's overall outlook seems promising. Michigan's defense shined through much of Harbaugh's tenure but appears to have reached a crossroads, both with scheme and personnel.

Coordinator Don Brown's aggressive approach seemingly is no longer an asset, as Ohio State and others are gashing Michigan with regularity. Michigan had five offside penalties against Indiana, repeatedly giving a talented IU offense extra yards.

"I don't know if Indiana had a great snap count and was getting them or whether there was an anxiousness," said Wisconsin offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Joe Rudolph. "When a two [second-stringer] or a three [third-stringer] is in at a position, sometimes that excitement is there."

The question is whether Michigan can play through its youth and become a top-four defense, like it was from 2015 or 2018, or whether the philosophy has grown old.

"To me, they look stagnant and disconnected on defense," an FBS personnel director said. "There's not that Devin Bush player giving confidence that stepped on the field and just played with confidence. That has to come with preparation and the personalities in the locker room."

Harbaugh's future at Michigan

Harbaugh's news conference Monday ended with a series of questions about his future. The NFL coaching carousel is approaching, and as usual, Harbaugh's name will come up for vacancies. He reached three NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers.

But this isn't like other years. Harbaugh's future at Michigan is cloudy, regardless of the NFL's interest. His first and only contract with Michigan expires Dec. 1, 2021. Contracts so close to expiration are very rare for major college coaches, especially those with as much success as Harbaugh has had at Michigan (48-20, four Associated Press top-20 finishes). Harbaugh and Michigan discussed a contract extension before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

"It was kind of right there," Harbaugh said in July. "Last February, it was being discussed. And then the pandemic hit and it's not been as high on the priority list."

With a 2020 salary of $8.054 million, per USA Today, Harbaugh is the nation's fourth-highest-paid coach, trailing only Alabama's Nick Saban, LSU's Ed Orgeron and Clemson's Dabo Swinney in annual salary. Any contract extension Michigan could offer now, given the team's struggles and the financial constraints of the pandemic, likely would not come close to Harbaugh's current salary.

"What they pay him is ridiculous to get your ass kicked by Ohio State," a Power 5 offensive assistant said.

So, would Harbaugh take a discount extension? Would he enter the final year of his contract with no guarantees, which could make recruiting especially difficult?

"I always like letting the action speak for what you have to say," Harbaugh said Monday. "I've always thought this: that your actions speak so loudly that people can't even hear what you're saying."

When pressed about Michigan specifically, Harbaugh said his actions "have been consistent," and that no matter what he says, the speculation will never go away.

Here's what we know from recent conversations: An outright firing is the least likely outcome for Harbaugh and Michigan. Although Harbaugh hasn't delivered enough big wins or any championships, he has improved the program in many ways. And he's still a legend at the school, a former Big Ten MVP and Heisman Trophy finalist who went on to a lengthy NFL career.

"I don't think Michigan would ever fire him," an industry source said. "I don't think it would ever come to that."

Most also don't think Harbaugh and Michigan would reach a discounted extension.

"They wouldn't do something phony to give him a deal and fire him two or three years later just for recruiting optics," an industry source said.

Harbaugh and Michigan could reach a mutual parting of ways after the season, perhaps with a discounted settlement. (His salary is fully guaranteed.) This would be a more amicable split. Harbaugh could give Michigan a break on the remaining salary he is owed, and Michigan could thank him for his service and keep the long-term relationship intact. Another potential plus: If Harbaugh took an NFL job -- the Atlanta Falcons, for example -- he would not owe Michigan any money because he's past Year 4 of his initial agreement with the school.

"He's doing his alma mater a favor," an industry source said. "At the end of the year he'll figure out: 'Do I want to stay here? Do I want to go back to the league?' Does he want to stick them with a buyout if they want to get rid of him? He's probably saying to [athletic director Warde Manuel], 'Let's just figure it out after the year.'"

Those close to Harbaugh agree he doesn't want to think about his contract or the next steps during the season. Few would be surprised if he simply moves into the final year of his contract. It's highly unconventional, but so is Harbaugh. Unlike most coaches, Harbaugh likely wouldn't worry about how his contract situation affects recruiting.

He could finish what he started at Michigan, even if it results in no wins against Ohio State or a single league title. The NFL would still likely be waiting.

"Jim's not bound by traditional norms," a source said. "That way, he doesn't have to, in theory, quit on it. It's very simple, and it's very clean for both sides."

ESPN's Dan Murphy contributed to this story.