When it comes to the 2020 college football coaching carousel, something is better than nothing.
South Carolina's dismissal of Will Muschamp eight days ago ensures at least one Power 5 program will be in the coaching market during this cycle. Although coaching changes shouldn't be celebrated, they make late November and December more interesting. Muschamp will be fine, by the way, after pocketing around $13.2 million from South Carolina not to coach (he already received around $6 million from Florida after being fired in 2014).
I'm raising my sons to become fired college football coaches. That's the American dream.
South Carolina likely won't be the last major-conference school to make a coaching change in this cycle. The Gamecocks' approach also could impact what other schools choose to do, especially in the SEC.
Here's the latest on what could be coming in the coaching carousel -- from Tennessee to Michigan (and Hugh Freeze's role in all of it) -- this year.
South Carolina
Being first to the market provides an advantage, especially in a year when few Power 5 teams are likely to join in. How much South Carolina benefits remains to be seen.
South Carolina might need to wait a while to make its hire, since the regular season and championship weekend both have been pushed back this season. Coaching hires are often made during or after the first weekend of December. But this year, conference title games are scheduled for Dec. 18-19, right after the early signing period for recruiting, which has become the main signing period.
Ideally, South Carolina has its next coach in place long before the signing period. But potential targets like Liberty's Hugh Freeze and Louisiana's Billy Napier still will be coaching their teams through mid-December. The Sun Belt title game takes place Dec. 19 and could include two South Carolina coaching targets in Napier and Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell.
The big question with South Carolina surrounds Freeze, who is becoming a central character of this year's carousel (more on that later). Although he told ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski he is not entertaining other opportunities, Freeze seemingly checks the boxes South Carolina needs: recruiting, quarterback development, dynamic offense, unafraid of the SEC behemoths. His Ole Miss tenure ended very badly, from NCAA recruiting violations to personal conduct that included calls to a female escort service. But if South Carolina wants to challenge Georgia and Florida in the SEC East, Freeze, perhaps more than any realistic candidate, understands what it would take.
Many Gamecocks fans want Freeze. The key will be university president Bob Caslen, a decorated retired Army officer who recently published a book called, "The Character Edge: Leading and Winning with Integrity." Would Caslen be open to Freeze, or will he push for a coach with less baggage?
Napier is viewed in the industry as a safer choice. Unlike Freeze, he hasn't been an SEC head coach, but he knows the league and the recruiting landscape from five years as an Alabama assistant. Plus, he was a player and young assistant in South Carolina from 1999 to 2010.
Another emerging name is Louisville coach Scott Satterfield, who won ACC Coach of the Year honors in 2019 but has had a disappointing second season (3-6). Satterfield is a Hillsborough, North Carolina, native, and spent the majority of his career as an assistant and the head coach at Appalachian State, his alma mater. He's extremely plugged in to recruiting in the Carolinas, and seemingly would be a better geographical fit at South Carolina than Louisville.
But Satterfield also doesn't seem like the type to leave a Power 5 job after only two years, especially given how Year 2 has gone. He also could have an easier path to high-level success at Louisville than South Carolina. And he has a $5 million buyout if he leaves before Dec. 31.
"I could see it happening," a source said. "It's just you're going to have to stand by how putrid [Louisville] is this year. It's been bad. Also, he costs money."
After Freeze, Napier and Satterfield, the picture gets cloudy. While South Carolina absolutely should pursue Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, I would be surprised if the interest is mutual. Sarkisian can aim higher. Army's Jeff Monken might get an interview because of his connection with Caslen, but there are questions about whether his approach would work in the SEC. Monken is open to veering from the triple option, but as one person put it this week, "He's never done anything but run the triple option. That's not who you are."
An interesting candidate is Oklahoma assistant head coach Shane Beamer, a South Carolina assistant from 2007 to 2010. Beamer spent his final two seasons as the Gamecocks' recruiting coordinator, helping assemble the core that delivered the best three-year stretch in team history from 2011 to 2013 (33-6, three AP top-10 finishes). He has been at big-time programs but never as offensive or defensive coordinator. "He'd have to have a really strong staff plan," a source said.
One factor for the South Carolina search -- and all searches in 2020 -- is the need to consider minority candidates. While diverse coaching candidate pools always should be a priority, especially considering the lack of representation, there's increased attention thanks to a summer of athlete activism following the killing of George Floyd. Three Black coaches who I'm told will get a look at South Carolina are Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott, Nevada coach Jay Norvell and Los Angeles Chargers quarterbacks coach Pep Hamilton. Both Elliott and Hamilton have regional ties. Norvell, considered for Missouri's vacancy last year, has been impressive in his first head-coaching opportunity.
Vanderbilt
Industry sources are split on whether Vanderbilt will make a change, although more expect movement than the status quo. The Commodores on Saturday started fast but lost 38-17 to No. 6 Florida, dropping to 0-7 on the season. Vanderbilt's remaining schedule is Tennessee, Georgia and Missouri, and ESPN's Football Power Index pegs the Commodores to post the first winless season in team history.
Coach Derek Mason is now 27-54 in six-plus seasons, including a 10-45 mark in SEC play. Since a solid stretch from 2016 to 2018 -- two bowl appearances and 17-21 overall -- Vanderbilt has fallen off sharply, going 3-16 with just one SEC win. Mason received a contract extension in February 2019, and while details have been limited, he would be owed quite a lot if fired.
First-year athletic director Candice Storey Lee has a big decision ahead. Vanderbilt wants and needs to increase its investment in football, which requires donors to write big checks and feel excited about the program's direction. As an industry source noted, "I'm not sure that they think Mason's the guy to do that."
Vanderbilt has been hit hard by COVID-19 issues, opt-outs and an all-SEC schedule. Mason is a delightful guy and a great representative of the school. But this is Year 7, and it's hard to look at his team and say a significant breakthrough is coming soon.
"I don't see how you don't [make a change]," a source said. "You're not getting any better next year. It's the same thing with South Carolina. If we're one of 3-4 [open] Power 5 jobs, this gives us the best chance?"
If Mason is fired, it would leave the 14-team SEC without a single Black head football coach.
"In the SEC, in this year, is [Storey Lee] going to take out the one and only [Black] coach? I don't think so," an industry source said.
Tennessee
Vanderbilt might not be the only SEC school in the state to consider a coaching change in 2020. Tennessee, however, is far less likely to make one, especially after awarding coach Jeremy Pruitt a completely unnecessary two-year contract extension before the season. (When will schools learn to read the market before giving away money they'll often have to eat later?)
Tennessee would owe Pruitt $12.88 million if it fires him this season. According to the Knoxville News Sentinel, the total payout for Pruitt and his staff would cost the school $19.2 million. The Vols are in free-fall, dropping five straight after a 2-0 start. The recent revelation that eight of Pruitt's 10 full-time assistants were the only athletic department employees who declined to accept a pay reduction to offset financial losses is a very bad look.
Then again, Pruitt is only in Year 3. He has largely reshaped the roster and continues to recruit well.
So, why would Tennessee make a change now? Hugh Freeze.
Several industry sources say Tennessee is the preferred landing spot for Freeze. Tennessee certainly could wait a year, see whether Pruitt improves the program in 2021 and then make a run at Freeze. But a poor finish, especially a loss this week against winless Vanderbilt, or a South Carolina push for Freeze, could change the thought process.
"Tennessee's always in play," an industry source said.
The Jim Harbaugh Watch at Michigan
My conversations this past week about Harbaugh led to the same conclusion as in previous weeks. Michigan will not fire Harbaugh outright. But there was a caveat.
"All bets are off the table if they lose to Rutgers," one person said.
Well, the Wolverines nearly did, needing three overtimes to overcome an improved Scarlet Knights squad, 48-42 on the road. Michigan found its quarterback in Cade McNamara but still showed many of the warts it had in the previous three weeks, especially on defense. Under Harbaugh, Michigan had outscored Rutgers 256-37 in their previous five meetings. On Saturday, the Wolverines fell behind 17-0, didn't lead until early in the fourth quarter and allowed a 75-yard drive and two-point conversion in the final minute of regulation as Rutgers forced overtime.
The program clearly is losing steam in Year 6 under Harbaugh. Coordinator Don Brown's defense, for years among the nation's best, isn't really intimidating anyone. Michigan can even its record at 3-3 next week against winless Penn State, and also gets Maryland at home before visiting Ohio State.
There are external factors, like NFL interest in Harbaugh, and it's possible the coach and his alma mater just decide to go their separate ways in December. But most still believe Harbaugh will be back in 2021 for the final year of his contract.
"I have my doubts that [athletic director Warde Manuel] is going to fire him," a source said. "But if he wants to do it, this is his best chance."
If Michigan had a vacancy, two primary targets likely would be Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell and Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. Fickell would be a potentially fascinating courtship, as no other FBS coach is more intertwined with the Ohio State program, including Buckeyes coach Ryan Day.
"The odds-on favorite for Michigan is Matt Campbell," a source said.
Seat cooling down: Lovie Smith, Illinois
There are job-saving wins every season, and Illinois' Lovie Smith might have recorded one Saturday at Nebraska. Smith entered the weekend with several things already in his favor: an unusual/pandemic season, a $2 million guarantee and athletic director Josh Whitman's loyalty.
But he also had a record of 16-37 in four-plus seasons (9-31 in Big Ten play). Other than a four-game win streak midway through last season, Illinois hadn't shown sustained signs of progress.
Consecutive road wins against Rutgers and Nebraska provide a jolt of optimism, especially with quarterback Brandon Peters returning from COVID-19 protocols to play extremely well.
Why was Saturday's win so big for Smith? Illinois' remaining schedule is very tough: No. 3 Ohio State, Iowa and No. 13 Northwestern. A potential 2-6 mark in Year 4 isn't anything to celebrate, but it likely allows Whitman, who boldly hired Smith just weeks after his own hiring in March 2016, to bring back the coach in 2021. A win would virtually assure it.
"Certainly seems like Illinois will be safe," an industry source said.
Even if Whitman ends up retaining Smith, he and other Illinois decision-makers should watch this week's game between Kent State and Buffalo. Coaches Sean Lewis (Kent State) and Lance Leipold (Buffalo) should be near the top of a candidate list if the Illinois job opens. Lewis, 34, fits what many teams want: He's young, charismatic and boasts a strong track record on offense. Leipold, 56, brings more experience and an incredible track record of success at both Buffalo and Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he won six national titles from 2007 to 2014.
As one person told me recently, "You have to hire one of those two" if Illinois opts to make a change.
Seat heating up: Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
Even in a normal year, Sumlin might be safe because of his contract and Arizona's less-than-stellar financial situation. The third-year coach would be owed $7.5 million if Arizona dumps him this season, a guarantee that drops to $5 million in 2021.
That's a lot of money, especially during a pandemic and for a school dealing with other issues, like an NCAA investigation into the men's basketball program. Arizona looked like a much-improved team in the season opener, taking two fourth-quarter leads against USC before falling in the final minute.
But Saturday marked a setback, as Arizona fell behind Washington 37-0 before some garbage-time touchdowns made the final score more respectable (44-27). Arizona next faces improved UCLA, still-unbeaten Colorado and rival Arizona State.
Will five or six games be enough to make a true assessment of Sumlin? Probably not. But if Arizona wants to enter the market in which few teams are searching, it could cite a third consecutive losing season as the reason to make a change.
There are some good candidates in the area: BYU coach Kalani Sitake, whose team is 9-0; Nevada's Jay Norvell, whose team is 5-0; or first-year Fresno State coach Kalen DeBoer, off to a 3-1 start.
The latest at Southern Miss and Utah State
Coaching searches are under way at both schools, although Southern Miss is much closer to a hire. Several sources expect the Golden Eagles to name their new coach by Nov. 30.
Southern Miss is only considering coaches with head-coaching experience. The top two candidates are Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall (former head coach at Division II West Alabama and West Georgia) and Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts (former head coach at Division II Delta State and FCS Southeastern Louisiana). Both are well-connected in the region. Hall is the son of legendary Mississippi high school football coach Bobby Hall, while Roberts has coached and recruited the area for about 20 years.
Others mentioned for Southern Miss include Coastal Carolina's Chadwell, Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson and former Arkansas and Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema, now a New York Giants assistant.
Utah State is also on the hunt, but likely will make its hire after Southern Miss. The Aggies are focusing on offensive-minded coaches.
Weber State head coach Jay Hill is a strong candidate. He's 32-6 in his last three seasons at Weber State with three top-six finishes in the FCS. Hill has spent his entire career in the state of Utah. Several BYU assistants will be considered, including offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, passing game coordinator Aaron Roderick and assistant head coach Ed Lamb. Texas Tech offensive coordinator David Yost, who thrived in the same role at Utah State under Matt Wells, could be in the mix. If Utah State considers defensive coaches, Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos and Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley could get looks.