Each offseason, I write what I call the "ifs list." I take all of the top national title contenders (using the offseason betting odds) in college football and ask myself how many "ifs" it would take me to make them national champions. How many key holes do they have to fill? How many questions do they need to find good answers for?
Granted, this year's exercise, which took place in the weirdest offseason of most of our respective lifetimes, was a bit off-kilter, referencing players who wouldn't even end up playing (hello, Jamie Newman) and schedules that wouldn't actually come to fruition. Still, going through this exercise creates a hierarchy of sorts. The top teams might need only one or two ifs to break right, but others might need a lot more.
This offseason exercise serves a purpose during the season, too. Using the Allstate Playoff Predictor as our guide -- and ignoring, for now, all 2020-specific "if a certain number of games don't get canceled"-style qualifiers -- let's see how many ifs it takes us to create champions out of the current field.
Jump to a team: Alabama | Ohio State | Clemson | Wisconsin
Notre Dame | Oregon | Florida | Indiana | BYU | Cincinnati
Texas A&M | USC | Northwestern
1 'If'
Alabama
Odds of reaching the CFP: 90%
If ... the pass rush actually starts to get home. Since allowing 48 points to Ole Miss, Alabama has allowed a total of 41 points in its past three games and should be able to pin Kentucky down on Saturday. The Tide are back up to 12th in defensive SP+ -- not Bama-like, but close, and good enough when you've got the best offense in the country. But against College Football Playoff-caliber teams, they might need a little extra something, and the pass rush is the most obvious candidate for improvement.
The Tide rank just 99th in sack rate and 102nd on passing downs. This leads directly to their biggest issue: They're only 65th in passing downs success rate and 123rd in third-and-long (third-and-7+) success rate. They can't get off the field when they get the chance.
Now, Bama still sometimes rushes the quarterback in productive ways -- it's 43rd in pressure rate, and linebacker Christian Harris has forced 10 incompletions or interceptions -- but nothing beats a negative play, and Bama needs more of them.
Ohio State
CFP odds: 59%
If ... the pass defense shows up at some point. Ryan Day's Buckeyes have been able to ease into 2020, slowly unfurling one strength at a time and overwhelming opponents without much effort. They've won their first three games, including two against SP+ top-40 teams, by an average of 46-23, and they haven't even gotten around to defending the pass yet!
That's going to happen at some point, right? Surely? The Buckeyes are 91st in passing success rate allowed and are struggling to force obvious pass situations. Despite having a pair of dynamite corners in Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks, new defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs has chosen to mostly play a pretty passive zone coverage. That's something a team like Indiana could take advantage of -- Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass against man coverage this year but 9.1 against zone. Is this the week Coombs gets more aggressive? Or is this going to be an actual problem the rest of the season?
Clemson
CFP odds: 43%
If ... the safeties lock things down. Clemson's offense averaged 37 points per game in Trevor Lawrence's absence, and now the Tigers' star quarterback is back in the lineup. I can't even pretend to be concerned about the offense. The defense, however, has one particular concern.
One of my June ifs for Clemson was "If ... a young safety corps doesn't suffer too many glitches." That has turned out to be a sporadic issue. Clemson is 99th in marginal explosiveness allowed, a measure that looks at the magnitude of an offense's successful plays and adjusts for field position. In standard downs situations, where offenses can theoretically either run or pass, the Tigers rank 110th. Corners Sheridan Jones, Derion Kendrick and Andrew Booth Jr. have been dynamite, but when safeties Nolan Turner, Lannden Zanders and Joseph Charleston are lined up as primary cover men, they're allowing more than 17 yards per completion and 9.9 yards per attempt. To say the least, that's something Alabama or Ohio State could take advantage of in a theoretical CFP.
2 'Ifs'
Wisconsin
CFP odds: 55%
If ... the big-play battle shifts a bit. Wisconsin's defense has been ruthlessly efficient thus far, ranking a distant first in success rate allowed. The offense, powered by quarterback Graham Mertz's great start, ranks 26th in success rate, too. Great combination.
The Badgers do have an explosiveness problem, though. According to Sports Info Solutions' explosive play rate measure -- the percentage of plays gaining 12+ rushing yards or 16+ passing yards -- opponents are making more big plays than they are: 13.0% (72nd) to the offense's 11.5% (81st). Do you think that might be costly against Indiana on Dec. 5? Against Ohio State in a theoretical Big Ten championship game?
If ... the dominance translates this time. The Badgers exploded out of the gates last year, too, and that didn't stop them from losing two games to Ohio State by a combined 72-28. A CFP bid might not require a Big Ten title game win over Ohio State, but a title run will require enough upside to take down someone from the "1 If" category.
Notre Dame
CFP odds: 48%
If ... FGs turn into TDs (and vice versa). As stirring as Notre Dame's win over Clemson was two weeks ago, the Irish could have won comfortably had they not lost a fumble at the goal line and settled for five field goals.
Notre Dame ranks 74th in goal-to-go touchdown rate and 66th in success rate inside the 10. The defense ranks 58th and 90th, respectively. If you're giving your opponent touchdowns while you're settling for field goals, it adds up in a hurry.
If ... blitz downs produce fewer explosions. I define blitz downs as second-and-22+ or third-and-5+. They're the most obvious passing situations. Notre Dame's defense has been awesome overall, but the Irish rank just 80th in blitz down sack rate, and opponents are gaining 20+ yards on 12% of blitz downs (102nd). Considering the QBs left on the schedule -- UNC's Sam Howell, probably Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, maybe Alabama's Mac Jones or Ohio State's Justin Fields -- you can see why that might be an issue.
Oregon
CFP odds: 32%
If ... the pass rush shows up. Oregon has one sack in two games and ranks 122nd in the FBS with a 1.7% sack rate. Star end Kayvon Thibodeaux is making plays against the run, but he is credited with just one pressure in 21 pass-rush attempts. The Ducks are blitzing on 29% of opponent dropbacks (52nd), but they aren't getting anywhere, and it's contributing to some big-play issues.
This hasn't been costly yet -- the Ducks beat Stanford and Washington State by a combined 78-43, after all -- and they might be more successfully aggressive when they have to be. But it's a box they still need to check.
If ... "something from nothing" continues. The pairing of offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and quarterback Tyler Shough has thus far produced a high completion rate, lots of third-and-manageables and 39 points per game. The key has been their ability to turn short passes -- often from almost triple-option-esque RPO (run-pass option) passes to the perimeter -- into big gains. As opponents get more familiar with this attack, will the low-risk big plays continue?
Florida
CFP odds: 18%
If ... the run defense achieves competence. Doesn't seem like too much to ask. The pass rush has rounded into form and taken the pass defense with it, but the Gators are still getting gashed on the ground. Arkansas' Trelon Smith and Rakeem Boyd gained 174 yards on 20 carries last week, and Georgia backs gained 151 in 15 the week before. Florida ranks 97th in rushing success rate allowed and 68th in rushing marginal explosiveness. Defending the pass might be the most important thing in today's game, but minimal run competence is still required.
If ... the defense gets off the field when it can. The pass defense isn't glitch-free, however. Even with Brenton Cox Jr. (23 pressures, two sacks, eight forced INCs/INTs) taking the pass rush to a better place, Florida still ranks 91st in passing downs success rate allowed and 96th on third-and-long. The Gators' offense is otherworldly and will give them a chance in any game, but Alabama's offense ranks first on passing downs, Wisconsin's second and Ohio State's third. Danger!
Indiana
CFP odds: 2%
If ... third-and-medium becomes its friend. On third-and-7+ this season, Michael Penix Jr. and the Indiana offense have generated a 38% success rate, which is 12th in the country. Penix stands tall in the pocket and absorbs pressure, and he makes some killer throws to Ty Fryfogle, Whop Philyor and Miles Marshall.
In a small-sample quirk, however, the Hoosiers third-down success rate with between 2 and 7 yards to go is only 35% (109th). Penix is just 6-for-16 passing, and only two of these incompletions were on long throws. IU's timing has been strangely off, and it's ending a lot of drives before they start.
If ... the big plays get smaller. The IU defense has been fun and aggressive, forcing three-and-outs on 39% of drives (12th) and allowing only 1.4 points per drive (15th). But the Hoosiers are 98th in marginal explosiveness allowed and have allowed six gains of 30+ yards in four games. As the degree of difficulty increases, this could become a much bigger issue. IU has only two "ifs," but they'll be devastating if they aren't righted quickly.
3 'Ifs'
BYU
CFP odds: 23%
If ... Zach Wilson is worth the hype. Wilson has been phenomenal, producing a top-10 Total QBR rating and a passer rating over 200. If the Cougars manage to buck all previous trends and sneak into the CFP field despite a lack of power-conference status, he'll have to continue raising his game. An early-December battle with San Diego State should help -- the Aztecs have the best pass defense he'll have faced to date.
If ... the pass defense responds when challenged. BYU is 42nd in passing success rate and 10th in passing downs success rate, and while the Cougars have been fine, we have no idea how they will perform against an elite passing game because they haven't faced one. That's not to say they will definitely fail, but we don't know that they will make many stops.
If ... the Cougars get help. The CFP committee has not yet shown any interest in placing a non-major program anywhere near a top-four position. But if enough things happen -- if Alabama wallops Florida, if Notre Dame beats Clemson again (or loses twice), if Wisconsin slips, if the Pac-12 champ isn't unbeaten -- then at some point the committee might not have a choice. We'll see just how much has to happen, though.
Cincinnati
CFP odds: 12%
If ... Desmond Ridder's passing-downs magic continues. The fact that the Bearcats are sixth in defensive SP+ is impressive but not completely surprising -- they've been awesome on that side of the ball for a while. More surprising? The UC offense is ranked 25th. Ridder has an even scarier run threat than normal (10.7 yards per non-sack carry), but he's also completing 67% of his passes and ranks 13th in Total QBR. And the Bearcats are 11th in passing downs success rate. If that continues, Cincinnati will continue to dominate.
If ... the red zone is friendlier. The offense does, however, rank 90th in first-and-goal success rate and 33rd in goal-to-go TD rate. The defense, meanwhile, ranks only 37th in goal-to-go situations. Again, settling for field goals (and preventing your opponent from doing the same) is a surefire way to lose in the CFP. This is an area for possible improvement.
If ... they get help. See BYU above.
Texas A&M
CFP odds: 9%
If ... easy scores become a thing. Jimbo Fisher's Aggies have undeniably improved of late, but with three of their next four opponents ranked in the SP+ top 50, it would behoove them to figure out how to create some easy points. They're 89th in marginal explosiveness, and their average of 4.2 gains per game of 20+ yards ranks 77th.
If ... the red zone becomes their friend. Big plays are doubly vital when you aren't great in the red zone. A&M scores TDs on only 64% of its goal-to-go situations (98th) and has allowed them 100% of the time. Not great.
If ... the pass defense either stops bending or stops breaking. The Aggies are 25th in defensive SP+, but they're stuck between identities. They're not incredibly efficient or disruptive (56th in success rate), and they're not brilliant at big-play prevention (48th in marginal explosiveness). You probably need to be elite at something on one side of the ball or the other, and A&M is merely just good at a lot.
USC
CFP odds: 4%
If ... late-game Kedon Slovis plays all game. Opponents are often forcing Slovis to settle for shorter passes, and drives eventually bog down -- the Trojans are 17th in yards per drive but 44th in points per drive. But in the last half of the fourth quarter, he has led four touchdown drives and completed 79% of his passes.
So, uh, do that all game. Easy, right?
If ... they throw out the short-yardage playbook. The Trojans have attempted five fourth-down conversions per game so far, most in the country. Great! The problem: They're only 6-for-10 overall, and all four failures have come on runs up the middle on fourth-and-1. You've got an offense built on passing and spreading the field, so maybe stick to your identity on the most important play of the drive?
If ... the run defense improves, a lot. Arizona State's DeaMonte Trayanum and Rachaad White combined for 24 carries and 160 yards, then Arizona's Gary Brightwell went for 21 and 112. This was a massive issue last season, and early indications haven't been favorable.
Northwestern
CFP odds: 3%
If ... the run game provides anything at all. Under new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, the Wildcats have an actual identity: They run the ball a lot and move with reasonable tempo, and QB Peyton Ramsey makes the occasional big throw on passing downs. The problem: The run game still stinks. They're 118th in rushing success rate, and Ramsey has to make too many bailout throws. Northwestern's awesome defense doesn't require a ton of points, but can the offense score enough against teams like Wisconsin?
If ... there are at least a few big plays. Northwestern is averaging 2.8 gains per game of 20+ yards. Only eight FBS teams average fewer. Again, the bar is low here, but it's higher than that.
If ... the pass rush provides a bit more oomph. The Wildcats are fifth in defensive SP+ and are as dominant as ever in the red zone, but against a high-level quarterback such as Fields or Mertz, pressure is a must, and that hasn't really been in the Wildcats' DNA. They're 118th in blitzes per dropback and 105th in sack rate.
Week 12 playlist
Here are 10 games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
All times Eastern.
Friday evening
Purdue at Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN). There's a chance Purdue star Rondale Moore will make his season debut, and either way you should check out George Karlaftis, DaMarcus Mitchell and a fun Boilermakers defense.
Early Saturday
No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (noon, Fox). Ho-hum, just the biggest Indiana game in at least 53 years.
Appalachian State at No. 15 Coastal Carolina (noon, ESPN2/ESPN App). App State is banged up, but the Mountaineers are still 6-1 and could pretty easily derail the Chanticleers hype train.
Saturday afternoon
No. 7 Cincinnati at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App). A pair of late losses to Tulsa and Memphis threw us off of UCF's scent, but the Knights are still 5-2 and represent Cincinnati's biggest challenge to date.
No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 19 Northwestern (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App). Part II of the Big Ten's Eliminator Saturday might not have a ton of points, but it will tell us things we desperately need to know about both squads.
Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State (4 p.m., Fox). An ISU win would turn the Big 12 race into a three-way battle for two spots: Iowa State, Texas and the Bedlam winner.
San Diego State at Nevada (3:30 p.m., CBS). I love that CBS is giving this one the full national treatment after the cancellation of Texas A&M-Ole Miss, and you'll get to watch two defenses playing dynamite ball at the moment. A nice, unexpected spotlight game.
Saturday evening
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App). I'm pretty sure Oklahoma is back to being the best team in the Big 12 at this point, but the Cowboys get a clear chance to prove me wrong in that regard.
Mississippi State at No. 13 Georgia (7:30 p.m., SECN/ESPN App). Should this be a good game? No. But I'm fascinated by how coach Kirby Smart will try, or not try, to fix the Georgia offense and a dicey quarterback situation.
Late Saturday
No. 20 USC at Utah (10:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App). Finally, Utah gets a chance to play a game, and it comes against a USC team that hasn't suffered a major upset yet ... but has tried. Do the Trojans finally get untracked? Do the Utes become Pac-12 South favorites in one fell swoop?