Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (2-2 last week, 24-17 overall), Bill Connelly (0-2, 13-14), Preston Johnson (1-3, 20-13), David M. Hale (0-3, 13-15) and Seth Walder (0-0, 4-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
No. 6 Florida Gators (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt Commodores, noon ET Saturday (on ESPN)
Kezirian: Florida is likely able to name its score, and I think Vanderbilt's ineptitude will allow the Gators to hang a 50-spot. The Gators own one of the nation's best offenses, scoring at least 38 points in all six games. Even when Dan Mullen allows his backups to play, the Gators still find the end zone. You cannot expect the reserves to run the power-I formation on every play, and even if they did, the Commodores could not stop it.
Fifty points is really not that much when you consider Vanderbilt is 0-6 and has been outscored 215-99. The Commodores allowed LSU and South Carolina to score 41 points, so why can't the Gators drop 50? Even Mississippi State scored 24 against Vandy. To put that in perspective, the Bulldogs' offense was held scoreless against Alabama and Kentucky and managed only 14 points against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Pick: Florida -31.5; Florida over 49.5 (at DraftKings)
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-15, 59), noon ET
Kezirian: I have found myself involved in every Illinois game this season. I am not ashamed. After all, I found myself betting almost all games involving UMass and Northwestern in 2019 (combined four wins). We have to find winning bets wherever we can, and I am hopeful an opportunity has presented itself in Lincoln.
Thanksgiving is next week, but it seems like both teams have just figured out their QB depth chart. Luke McCaffrey replaced Adrian Martinez and the Nebraska offense responded well, building a 27-3 lead in the upset over Penn State last week. McCaffrey should look even more comfortable against an Illinois defense that has gaping holes and constant confusion in its secondary. The Illini did some nice things against Rutgers, but they have allowed 31-plus points in their three losses.
Last weekend, Isaiah Williams became the fourth different Illinois starting quarterback in as many games. He ran for 192 yards, and his speed kept Rutgers defenders looking pretty clueless. Nebraska has a better defense, but this is still a far cry from a vintage Cornhuskers D. Brandon Peters, who started the opener, is expected to return from COVID-19, and I imagine Lovie Smith will find creative ways to utilize both quarterbacks.
Pick: Over 59
Georgia Southern Eagles at Army Black Knights (-4, 41), noon ET
Hale: Army's 6-2 record looks impressive until you dig into the schedule, which is abysmal. Three wins came against FCS foes, and the other three against teams ranked 108, 122 and 123 in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). In the two games the Black Knights played against legitimate opponents, they managed to score a combined 22 points.
Georgia Southern isn't elite by any stretch, but the Eagles have solid wins over Troy and South Alabama, and they held their own against both Louisiana and Coastal Carolina. They're also allowing just 3.48 yards per rush, tops in the Sun Belt. This feels like a particularly good matchup for Georgia Southern and a chance to get points with the better team.
Pick: Georgia Southern +4
No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-6, 63.5) at UCF Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Johnson: I have been as pro-Cincinnati this season as anybody and bet the Bearcats in two of their past four games -- and I still think this line is way too extreme. I can see the Bearcats earning the right to be a small favorite, but anything over a field goal is too much, and I'm taking the points. Despite the losses on its résumé, UCF is still top 10 offensively in expected points added (EPA) and success rate. The Knights lead the country in total yards. Their tempo will be something Cincinnati's defense hasn't seen this season. I expect this to be its toughest test yet.
The concern for UCF would be on the other side of the ball against a Desmond Ridder-led Cincy offense that is making a ton of noise. I like the prospects of this matchup turning into a back-and-forth shootout with the matchup advantages for each team, and my projection for the total is closer to 68.
Pick: UCF +6 and over 63.5
No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 43.5) at No. 19 Northwestern Wildcats, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
Walder: There was no major team the FPI was higher on, relative to the general consensus, than Wisconsin. Way back when no games had been played, it considered the Badgers the fourth-best team in college football while the preseason AP poll put them at No. 12. In the two games Wisconsin has played, FPI has only been emboldened, as the Badgers beat already high expectations from the model in their blowout victories over Illinois and Michigan.
While Northwestern is also undefeated, at 4-0, the model has been less impressed by the Wildcats. Though every win has resulted in an upgrade to Northwestern's FPI rating, those upgrades have all been below a single point on a neutral field -- three of the four victories were within one score, after all. Contrast that with the four-point bump Wisconsin received from its win over Michigan alone, and we can see why FPI still prefers the Badgers by more than two touchdowns. It's looking past the zeros in both loss columns and focusing on the way those zeros were achieved.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
Connelly: Algorithms of the world, unite! SP+ hasn't loved Wisconsin quite as much as FPI, but it's close, and it has still underestimated the Badgers by 19 points per game. Northwestern has overachieved in its own right, but this is a pure "let it ride" pick as far as Wisconsin is concerned. SP+ projects the Badgers to win by 15.5, and while I think a plodding tempo could keep it closer than that, that's a pretty good cushion between the line and the projection.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
UCLA Bruins at No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-13.5, 66.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)
Johnson: I think taking UCLA's win over Cal on Sunday as a worthwhile data point is an overreaction. Cal was dealing with COVID-19 concerns for the two weeks leading up to the game after some cancellations, and the Bears didn't even know they were facing UCLA in a Sunday game until two days prior. Oregon is covering spreads left and right despite a minus-five turnover differential, and this Ducks offense won't have any issues against a Bruins defense that, in a more trustworthy result against Colorado in the opener, allowed 48 points to the Buffs.
Pick: Oregon -13.5
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 47) at Penn State Nittany Lions, 3:30 p.m. ET
Hale: Sometimes you just have to wager on the idea that proud programs will show some heart when their backs are against the wall. Is Penn State the top-25 team we expected before the season? No. But are the Nittany Lions really an 0-5 team? Bad turnover luck (Penn State is minus-six on the season, losing the turnover margin in all four games) and bad luck overall (the Nittany Lions have outgained three of four opponents, two by more than 200 yards) have been as big an issue as the quarterback, and that luck has to turn soon. We'll take the points at home with a team desperate to redeem itself.
Pick: Penn State +2.5
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (30, 58), 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)
Kezirian: Given its high-powered offense, Alabama is certainly capable of blowing out any opponent, especially one with limitations like Kentucky. But sometimes you have to dig deeper and anticipate situations when a team is primed to merely go through the motions. Alabama has its rivalry game next week against Auburn, and most players are probably already focused on the Iron Bowl. Additionally, Nick Saban is known for taking his foot off the gas once the outcome is decided, and I can certainly see that happening in the fourth quarter against Kentucky. Plus Kentucky has a pretty strong defense, which should be able to prevent Alabama from marching up and down the field at will. The Wildcats are awful on offense -- they went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer -- but I can see them doing some things when the Crimson Tide have the reserves in.
Pick: Kentucky +30
No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 59), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
Kezirian: With a combined three conference losses and a college football weekend that has more intriguing matchups elsewhere, this version of Bedlam is flying a bit under the radar. Yes, College GameDay will travel to Norman but I just think football fans have some Big 12 fatigue, especially since the conference is not part of the Heisman or CFP discussion. But bettors do not care, as all tickets cash the same, and this sure looks like a great opportunity to back the Sooners.
After suffering back-to-back losses, Oklahoma has cranked up the offense and torched opponents in four straight wins. That includes a 33-9 win over TCU and three other victories in which the Sooners dropped at least 53 points. Lincoln Riley's unit lacks a Heisman candidate, but it still ranks in the top 25 in yards per play and yards per pass attempt.
Oklahoma State has a respectable defense and is ranked higher, but the high-powered offense always wins these battles -- just ask Georgia about its meeting with Alabama. For whatever reason, the Cowboys have not managed much on offense this year. They sputter way too often. As for the rivalry, it has been dominated by Oklahoma; Mike Gundy is only 2-13 against the Sooners.
I also think this line will go up so I'm opting for a teaser, which is a slight justification for playing a college teamer. I also want to maximize the pick.
Pick: Oklahoma -7; Oklahoma over 33.5 (at DK); OU teaser with Cincinnati
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-25, 44.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)
Kezirian: Georgia's defense will dominate this game, and there is a chance Mississippi State will be held to zero or one score. But I do not feel comfortable laying 25 points with an inept Georgia offense. To me, this handicap comes down to the Mississippi State defense -- is it capable of putting up a fight? I think so, to a certain extent. I might be guilty of getting a little too cute, but I am banking on Mike Leach's crew to have some fight at the start.
Given Stetson Bennett's limitations, and there are plenty, Kirby Smart has approached first quarters with extreme caution. Georgia has not scored more than 10 points in the first quarter this season. It's time to capitalize on that conservative playcalling and top-notch defense. I highly doubt Mississippi State will score in the first quarter, so it comes down to whether Bennett and the offense can muster two touchdowns. Sure, a long Georgia run could happen, but I trust the Mississippi State defense to hold its own.
Pick: First quarter under 10.5 (at DK)
No. 21 Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack (-3.5, 66.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)
Connelly: Three sweet spots for SP+ picks this season, albeit with small sample sizes in the first two cases: 6-2 against the spread picking NC State games; 4-2 ATS picking Liberty games; 19-10 ATS in games in which (a) it disagrees with the spread by at least three points and (b) the line is between 3.5 and 6.5 points. And it was 40-27-1 with those criteria last season.
While NC State has been a pretty inconsistent team, Liberty hasn't. The Flames were lucky to beat a much better Virginia Tech team but still played well against the Hokies, and the fact that SP+ projects them to have a 4.4-point advantage -- a pretty significant difference with the line -- gives me confidence.
Pick: Liberty +3.5
No. 20 USC Trojans (-3, 57.5) at Utah Utes, 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Connelly: Aside from its strange and, as of last week, unjustified love of Washington, SP+ has had a decent read on the Pac-12 so far. It's 3-2 ATS when it disagrees with the line by more than three points, 3-1 sans Washington.
I'm going to trust it when it says Utah has a slight advantage over USC, even though we haven't seen the Utes play yet. The Trojans have underachieved in each of their first two games, so that makes it a bit easier to swallow.
Pick: Utah +3