If only BYU and Cincinnati could settle this on the field.
Oh wait, they can -- if they both wind up in a New Year's Six bowl. The 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will pair six teams in the "host bowl" games, based on their protocol, so No. 7 Cincinnati and No. 8 BYU could potentially face each other in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, PlayStation Fiesta Bowl or Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl this year.
Or they could reach the College Football Playoff.
While it remains an unlikely scenario, if there ever was a year for a team outside the mighty Power 5 to crack the code to the top four, this could be it. The coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc on college football schedules from coast to coast, ultimately forcing the committee to compare teams with vastly different résumés. As it stands, Oregon and Wisconsin have played two games. BYU and Cincinnati have each already played at least seven.
American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN on Sunday he believes "now more than ever" that the number of games teams play this year should matter in the committee's rankings because the more they play, the more they risk -- and the more it wears on them.
"These teams have had to struggle through a long season," he said. "They've risked losing, they've risked injuries. They've had to deal with COVID week after week after week and all the testing. It doesn't seem fair to me. The number of games absolutely should matter. If you're playing essentially six games, it almost feels like an exhibition season."
At most, the Pac-12 champion will have played seven games. Even some of the nation's most elite programs -- such as Ohio State -- have played pedestrian schedules that normally would have been beefed up by a marquee nonconference game. The Associated Press Top 25 has been speckled with surprises including Marshall, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Louisiana and Tulsa.
No. 7 Cincinnati and No. 8 BYU, though, have risen above them all.
While it's not impossible, technically, for them both to finish in the top four, it's far-fetched because there are too many Power 5 contenders ahead of them. It's not unrealistic, though, for one of them to get serious consideration -- especially with all of the continued uncertainty in the midst of a pandemic.
Over the past six seasons of the playoff, the committee chair has consistently pointed to differences in résumés when justifying the group's rankings. Consider this: According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it's slightly harder for a top-25 team to go undefeated against the Bearcats' 10-game schedule (24.4% chance) than against Ohio State's seven-game schedule (24.5%). Of course, their respective conference title games would eventually flip that in the Buckeyes' favor.
The résumé comparisons of BYU and Cincinnati down the stretch are likely to favor the Bearcats -- but only if Cincinnati can win its toughest game of the season on Saturday at UCF. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Bearcats a 43.6% chance to win, their lowest in any remaining game. Cincy also ends the season with a tricky Friday night game at No. 25 Tulsa.
While Cincinnati has averaged 41.6 points and allowed only 12.4 per game, the Bearcats' identity this season has been their defense. Cincy has allowed only two touchdown passes and snagged 12 interceptions while limiting all six of its FBS opponents to 17 points and 300 yards or fewer.
If Cincinnati can run the table and win the AAC, it's strength of record metric would be comparable to 2014 national champion Ohio State. Meanwhile, the average top-25 team would have a 44% chance to go 10-0 against BYU's schedule. It's a stark contrast, considering the two undefeated UCF teams that didn't finish in the top four in 2017 and 2018 both had more impressive résumés at selection time.
The selection committee does actually watch these teams, though, and BYU has a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Zach Wilson, who ranks in the top 10 in five major statistical categories. The Cougars have 10 offensive linemen with starting experience. They're the only FBS team ranked in the top 10 in each of the following categories: scoring offense and defense, and total offense and defense. They're one of the top five teams in the country in terms of explosive plays.
BYU, which has also had to deal with players unavailable this season because of COVID-19, has made good use of the depth it has developed on both the offensive and defensive lines -- and the Cougars have yet to take the field at full strength. BYU coach Kalani Sitake said whatever decision the selection committee makes, his program "will respect it" because they're simply grateful to have a season this year.
"I don't think we're in any place to feel entitled or make demands," Sitake said. "Our focus has been just to be ready to play. With that being said, let me make myself clear: We're not afraid of competing against anybody. Whoever gets on the schedule, we would love to play them. We've talked about it before. This is going to be a difficult discussion, and the people who have to make the decision, it's really hard on them."
Here are some of the key factors that will help settle the debate:
BYU (8-0)
Best win: Nov. 6 at Boise State
Opponents' winning percentage: 44% (26-33)
Wins vs. teams .500 or better: 5
Strength of schedule: No. 75
Remaining strength of schedule: No. 119
Game Control: No. 7
What it needs to finish in the top four: An undefeated season, as many wins against ranked opponents and teams over .500 as possible, and some combination of chaos in the Power 5 conference races. BYU should also hope Cincinnati loses, because it would leave the Cougars as the top remaining undefeated contender outside of the Power 5. What can't happen is for the ACC and SEC to give the committee multiple contenders.
There are possibilities.
North Carolina can upset Notre Dame on Nov. 27, and Clemson can win the ACC title to eliminate the Irish. Alabama can win the SEC and eliminate Florida and Texas A&M from the conversation. The Pac-12 champion can have a loss and will have fewer games. Ohio State can lose the Big Ten. Wisconsin can win the Big Ten -- with a total of only seven games. In addition to the chaos above, BYU fans need to cheer for the opponents below them. It will help the Cougars if Boise State runs the table and stays ranked, if Houston can avoid losing two of its last three, and if Navy can finish at .500.
The biggest BYU boost might be yet to come.
Sitake told ESPN the Cougars are trying to add one more game to the schedule because there is a long open stretch between Saturday's game against North Alabama and the Dec. 12 regular-season finale against San Diego State. It can't just be anyone, though. If possible, athletic director Tom Holmoe needs to try to line up a top Group of 5 team -- ideally a Marshall, or Coastal Carolina or Louisiana.
"We started the season with being appreciative and having gratitude," Sitake said. "We're going to keep that up, and whatever happens afterward, we're going to respect it. It's a difficult discussion, that's why it's so popular right now."
Cincinnati (7-0)
Best win: Oct. 24 at SMU
Opponents' winning percentage: 46.8% (22-25)
Wins vs. teams .500 or better: 4
Strength of schedule: No. 88
Remaining strength of schedule: No. 52
Game Control: No. 6
What it needs to finish in the top four: An 11-0 record that includes the AAC title, and chaos in the Power 5 conference races above.
"I think it's possible," Aresco said. "It will probably take some losses above them."
Similar to BYU, Cincinnati has to hope that Clemson and Notre Dame aren't both one-loss teams, with their only loss to each other. The Bearcats also have to hope Florida doesn't win the SEC because the committee could then take the Gators and also consider runner-up Alabama -- and potentially even Texas A&M. If Wisconsin, Northwestern or Indiana were to win the Big Ten, it could throw the debate wide open.
A win over 0-3 FCS opponent Austin Peay isn't going help the Bearcats' résumé, but if Army, SMU, Memphis and Houston can finish strong, it won't matter.
Cincinnati has to win three straight games on the road in order to finish the regular season undefeated, and none of them loom larger than Saturday at UCF. The Bearcats have a chance to clinch a spot in the AAC championship game this week with a win and a Navy loss. ESPN's FPI gives the Bearcats a 24% chance to win out and finish the regular season with an 11-0 record. If they do, their chance to reach the playoff will jump from 12% to 51% according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.