The most powerful people in college football have been working quietly behind the scenes to figure out how to delay the College Football Playoff -- but only if the coronavirus pandemic forces them to. Following an unprecedented, tumultuous week during which 15 games were canceled or postponed, the most important ones remain unchanged: the Jan. 1 semifinals and the Jan. 11 national championship game in Miami Gardens, Florida.
"We're not going to move off of that schedule unless we're forced to move off of it," Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said, "and we aren't going to know that for quite a while."
It could be a month, maybe longer. There's no predetermined "cutoff" date to make a determination of that magnitude, and the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick intend to move slowly and methodically through the decision-making process.
"The commissioners regularly engage in scenario planning," Bowlsby said. "We wouldn't be doing our jobs if we weren't. That's been especially true in 2020. We have no plans to change anything. It's just good management to think about what-ifs, and if we don't do that, how would we respond if we needed to respond?"
Moving the playoff, which is planned at least a year in advance, would be a herculean task. It would require scheduling around the January NFL playoffs and canceling and rebooking team hotels and travel, and it would depend on stadium availability -- all obstacles that can be overcome, but not without some heavy lifting. There is a "strong sentiment" to play the games as currently scheduled, "knowing it won't be perfect," CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN.
Here are some of the biggest questions facing the commissioners as they discuss a potential disruption to the postseason, and what it could all mean for the top playoff contenders:
What happens if a top-four team has an outbreak the week of a Jan. 1 semifinal game?
The commissioners don't know the answer to this yet. The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are scheduled to host the CFP semifinals on Jan. 1. Should there be COVID-19 issues within a participating program, do the teams forge ahead and play with the athletes they have available? (Possibly a third-string quarterback?) Do they forfeit? Does the CFP bump up the fifth team? (Highly unlikely).
Or do you wait? And wait ...
Waiting a week probably won't even make a difference, as we have seen with Wisconsin, which had to cancel back-to-back games, and potentially now Texas A&M. The 14-day quarantine is a two-week stoppage, no way around it. And waiting even a week pushes college football into the NFL playoffs, which begin the weekend of Jan. 9.
The final Saturday of the month, Jan. 30, is an open date between the NFC and AFC championship games and Super Bowl LV. Would the commissioners make the players and coaches wait that long to settle it on the field?
They might not have a choice.
Could there really be a CFP in February?
Sources say none of the commissioners want a February playoff, but they agree it beats no CFP at all. The national title game has always been on a Monday, and the first available Monday in February is the day after the Super Bowl. It's a terrible spot for exposure. The deeper into February you go, the more unrealistic it feels, but it can't entirely be ruled out -- yet.
Are the commissioners all on the same page this time?
They have to be -- and sources say they are. Officials in the Big Ten and Pac-12 likely wish they would have waited before postponing their seasons indefinitely this summer -- a lesson in patience that lends itself to the next major decision.
Could the CFP expand just for this season?
No. Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott already tried in late September, and while there was some support from his FBS peers, there wasn't enough to expand to eight teams this year -- even if just as a temporary experiment in reaction to the pandemic.
Last week, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey pointed out that "expanding the playoff in reality makes it more difficult to complete a playoff."
They're having enough problems playing the games they already have scheduled.
How tenuous is this whole situation?
There hasn't been this much uncertainty about the season since the summer, and the rise in daily cases throughout the country is worse now than it was then. As powerful as the commissioners are, the virus remains in control. While fans, coaches, players and athletic administrators hope the season continues as planned and a national champion is crowned Jan. 11, the possibility still remains this season could be cut short.
Each conference continues to rely on its medical advisory groups, but they are also at the mercy of state and local government restrictions, plus the university presidents, who are tasked with trying to keep entire campuses safe. Some university presidents remain heavily involved in the discussions about college football, bringing their perspective of genuinely caring for the student-athletes while also remaining concerned about the liability aspect.
How will cancellations impact teams in the playoff race?
Seven of the top eight teams in the AP Top 25 poll have either had a game canceled or postponed because of COVID-19-related issues, whether it has been within their own program or an opponent's. So far, most of the scenarios haven't had a significant impact on the playoff picture.
The selection committee isn't going to leave Alabama out of the top four because it doesn't get to play against a struggling LSU team; it also isn't going to leave out an undefeated Big Ten champ that looks like Ohio State has through its first three games. The bigger concern is if the Buckeyes have a COVID-19 issue of their own. Big Ten teams have to play at least six games to compete in the conference championship game (if everyone in the league plays an average of eight games). Right now the Buckeyes need to play three of their next four to qualify right now. Wisconsin, which handled Michigan with ease after emerging from a COVID-19 outbreak and having its previous two games canceled, can still win the West, but it has to play each of its next four games to qualify.
Texas A&M might suffer the biggest impact, considering its game against Ole Miss is in jeopardy because of contact tracing and injuries. Assuming Alabama wins the SEC West, A&M needs every opportunity it can to show the committee it might be a top-four team. Why? If Florida wins the East and beats Alabama in the SEC championship game, Texas A&M would have the best win (against SEC champ Florida) and the best loss -- to runner-up Alabama. If the Aggies can't play Ole Miss on Saturday, they could at least try to reschedule it for Dec. 19.
Overall, the selection committee is going to have no choice but to rank teams with uneven schedules, varying degrees of COVID-19 issues and circumstances out of their control. The question is how much it all continues to snowball and how it could come into play when trying to decide between two otherwise comparable contenders. As difficult as this might be to accept, it's going to be impossible to measure teams equally when they are playing during a pandemic.
It's almost impossible to do when they're not.
Could the CFP semifinals change dates and locations?
If Ohio State and Notre Dame are playing each other in a semifinal, for example, do they really need to fly to California for a Rose Bowl with no fans and no parade? Why couldn't they just go to Indianapolis?
It starts (and pretty much ends) with a lengthy and extremely important contract between the CFP and the Rose Bowl, which is still the "Granddaddy of Them All" -- even in a pandemic. Plus, if the semifinalists didn't play at the Rose Bowl, who would? When the Rose Bowl hosts a semifinal, it's the only postseason event there. Sure, the Big Ten and Pac-12 could play as they traditionally do, but it would depend on when all of the changes are made.
Nobody knows which teams will be chosen for the semifinals at this point. What if it's BYU and Oregon?
Dates are flexible, but contracts are much stickier.
Could conferences push back their championship games to Dec. 26?
Who wants to play the day after Christmas? If that happened, there would almost certainly be FBS conferences that would choose to end the season as currently scheduled, and university presidents who would not keep people on campus through Christmas.
This raises another issue: How can semifinalists possibly let their players go home for Christmas this year? The more exposure to family and friends over the holidays, the more likely they are to bring the virus back into the program right before the biggest games of the year. In a way, college football already has its bubble on campus -- and would be wise to keep it.
There's an expectation that some of these cases will decrease this month on campuses where the general student body goes home for Thanksgiving and the athletes stay behind.
Could college football use a bubble for the playoff?
The commissioners aren't talking about this because it's not considered feasible for student-athletes. In order to truly create a protective "bubble" around them, they would have to arrive early for a 14-day quarantine period before the game.
"If you're really talking about a bubble, and you look at that as work, you've got that lead-up time and then you can play," Sankey said. "It's a much lengthier process. I've not been a part of those conversations."
The cost and logistical challenges have burst this bubble.
How will the committee view losses without key players because of COVID-19?
Clemson losing in double overtime against Notre Dame without starting quarterback and potential No. 1 NFL draft pick Trevor Lawrence is the highest-profile example this season, but numerous teams have been without starters because of COVID-19. The selection committee will consider each instance in its deliberations.
According to CFP protocols, which haven't changed since the playoff began, the committee considers "key injuries that may have affected a team's performance during the season" to help distinguish between "otherwise comparable teams." While the wording specifically relates to injuries, Hancock said it's more accurate to say player "availability" because committee members are also aware of suspensions or disqualifications.
Clemson's Nov. 7 loss isn't enough on its own to keep the Tigers out of the playoff because Clemson is on track to get a second chance to redeem itself against Notre Dame in the ACC championship game -- with Lawrence in the lineup. That could present a scenario in which both teams finish in the top four -- depending on how the other Power 5 conferences fare.