When a college football team lands its No. 1 recruiting target at quarterback, coaches would love to have the best-case scenario play out with the prospect.
That quarterback will start from day one. He'll stabilize the whole offense. And after three years of lighting up opposing defenses, he'll be a top NFL draft pick.
The problem, more often than not, is that scenario doesn't play out. And the numbers prove that.
Of the 20 ESPN 300 quarterbacks in the 2015 class, 14 transferred or were dismissed. Of the 21 ESPN 300 quarterbacks in the 2016 class, 17 transferred. Among the 24 quarterbacks in the ESPN 300 from the 2017 class, there were 12 transfers and one who switched to tight end. In total, 43 of the 65 ESPN 300 quarterbacks -- 66% -- left the team they signed with out of high school.
This isn't to say that top-tier quarterbacks aren't worth pursuing, but not every team can land a Trevor Lawrence. There is more nuance when it comes to quarterback recruiting. It's more than signing a quarterback, plugging him into the system and watching him flourish.
In today's landscape, coaches are finding value and, in many cases, a need to either land a second quarterback in a recruiting class or put the time and effort into scouting an unheralded quarterback they can take a shot at developing.
"I think it's really big to get guys that aren't super elite, because the super elite one normally has been told how great he is, so they're the ones who leave quick when things aren't going well, they're not playing," Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. "The three- or four-star guy, they're more apt to stay because he's always been a fighter and knew what he was signing up for. Sometimes you can get screwed up, you sign a top guy three years in a row, you're usually going to lose one or two of them, so it is good to have some balance like that."
This season more than others, we are seeing those second quarterbacks who have waited their turn, now thriving for their respective teams at the highest level. There are no better examples than Alabama's Mac Jones and Florida's Kyle Trask, who are both firmly in the Heisman conversation this season.
Jones, a four-star prospect in the 2017 class, initially committed to Kentucky before he flipped to Alabama a month after the Crimson Tide secured a commitment from Tua Tagovailoa, the top-ranked dual-threat quarterback and No. 57-ranked recruit overall.
He knew exactly what he was getting into when he signed, with Tagovailoa in the class and Jalen Hurts finishing off a freshman season in which he was named SEC offensive player of the year.
"Coach [Saban] wanted to sign two [quarterbacks], and I was like, 'Coach, I don't know how we're going to do that,'" said Kiffin, Alabama's former offensive coordinator. "It's going to be hard to get one, because usually you don't get a top guy when you have a freshman starter. That said a lot about Mac. Once he was there, he didn't leave. You talk about roster management. Everybody wants to leave nowadays with 'take my ball and go home' syndrome. So [Jones] said, 'I'm going to be there, and I want to get my degree from Alabama, play ball there and not be afraid of competition."
Trask has a similar story. Before he arrived at Florida, he was a three-star recruit at Manvel High School (Texas), waiting his turn behind now-Miami quarterback D'Eriq King.
Then-Florida coach Jim McElwain and his staff found Trask during spring evaluations in 2015. Then-defensive coordinator Randy Shannon was at the high school looking at 2017 safety Derrick Tucker, but couldn't help but notice the team's second-string quarterback, Trask.
The staff brought Trask on campus for camps to evaluate him in person and asked each other what the problem was. Why didn't this talented quarterback have the attention he deserved? None could come up with an answer.
"The thing that really attracted us was, here's a guy who could've transferred [in high school] to play and yet, he stayed, saw it through, and that really told us something," McElwain said. "His high school coach spoke so highly of him. The film that he was able to put on was actually really good but just didn't get the attention.
"For us, I'd go back and say the camp was huge. We were able to see him in person and how he acted, how he threw and that kind of stuff and liked him from there."
Trask was committed to the Gators and saw ESPN 300 quarterback Feleipe Franks commit to Florida a few months later. Trask stayed and sat behind Franks for two seasons until Franks was injured in 2019, opening the door for Trask to take the reins.
He has helped fifth-ranked Florida to a 4-1 start to the season to the tune of 1,815 yards, 22 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Jones and Trask are just some of the less-heralded recruits who are now starting and thriving. Kedon Slovis at USC was ranked as a four-star outside the ESPN 300 and committed to the Trojans in the class after the team landed JT Daniels, who was supposed to be the next big quarterback for USC.
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book was a three-star who committed in the class after ESPN 300 quarterback Brandon Wimbush. Book just led the Fighting Irish past top-ranked Clemson, while Wimbush, the No. 45-ranked prospect in 2015, transferred. Zach Wilson was a three-star out of high school and is now turning heads at BYU.
There isn't a magic formula that has allowed those quarterbacks to see success, and it isn't to say that they are any better than the quarterbacks who got more attention on the recruiting trail. But coaches believe there is something to those players seeing others get the hype -- their peers getting the attention and national talk about how quickly they will play and succeed at their respective schools -- that might be a factor in their success.
"In some cases, when you weren't the highly recruited guy, maybe you got a little chip on your shoulder, too, and that can play to their advantage," McElwain said. "They're probably seeing success because these guys know [the offense] inside and out, and I think they probably play faster because of all the reps in the meeting room, watching guys do it, taking advantage of when they do get their opportunity in practice. I really think they do an outstanding job of what to do and how to do it because of that time as a backup."
Most elite prospects generally think they've prepared enough in high school that they should play early in their college careers, whether that's as a true freshman or in their second year.
When they see they aren't No. 1 on the depth chart, that can influence them to transfer to a school that might allow them to start sooner rather than later. By the same token, they could lose out on a developmental period to learn the entire offense and figure out what it takes to play at a high level.
The players who stay, however, might position themselves to see the field over an incoming recruit because they're more prepared at the college level. It won't work out for everyone, but the chance of having success by leaving after one season is far smaller than it is if they stay and wait.
"I think they probably play faster because of all the reps in the meeting room, watching guys do it, taking advantage of when they do get their opportunity in practice. I really think they do an outstanding job of what to do and how to do it because of that time as a backup." Former Florida coach Jim McElwain
Jones sat for three years, waiting his turn while Tagovailoa manned the offense, and even faced doubt from people on the outside when Alabama signed Bryce Young, the No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2020 class. Many thought Young would take over right away and Jones would still sit as the backup.
All Jones has done as a starter is complete 78.5% of his passes for 2,196 yards and throw16 touchdowns and two interceptions, helping Alabama to a 6-0 record and the No. 1 ranking in the AP poll.
"I think it's the NFL theory where some teams draft and say we're not going to play him the first year no matter what," Kiffin said. "They want them to sit. The Aaron Rodgers theory: You want them to sit behind someone great."
The problem for coaches, however, is that quarterback recruits aren't walking around telling everyone that they'll transfer if it doesn't work out, or that they'll stay and put in the work.
That's part of the process coaches consider with some second quarterbacks and unheralded recruits. Current Florida quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson didn't recruit Trask to Florida, but he can see why McElwain and his staff did.
"I think ultimately it's really about stuff that you can't find in recruiting that you don't get a chance to see in terms of personality, in terms of information processing. There's so much that goes into being a good quarterback, there's so much more than going to a camp and throwing really fast and hard and looking good in shorts," Johnson said. "It really comes down to a lot of the intangible stuff that is really hard to find and you really don't get enough time to spend with people in person to figure out if they have it. Guys that are underrecruited have that chip on their shoulder and have that chance to develop not necessarily in the spotlight."
Each coach has different ways of finding those traits or figuring out whether that quarterback will have the patience to stick things out if he doesn't play right away.
For Kiffin, he puts extra stock in spending quality one-on-one time with his quarterback targets when they're on campus. He looks into their personalities as people, rather than just what their arm talent is. He pays attention to body language -- if they're able to look someone like Nick Saban in the eyes, that represents confidence. He also bases some of it off of whether a player would have hung out with him when Kiffin was in college.
He wants the quarterback everyone wants to be around because he's a leader. That's part of what he saw in Jones when he recruited him at Alabama.
"Mac's like that. Mac came up to me before the [Ole Miss-Alabama] game, and he was joking that I was bigger and put on some weight. He's just a cool kid," Kiffin said. "There's something to the way a guy walks, the way he talks, how confident he is. The maturity part, if you can be a junior in high school and you can look at a head coach in the eyes and talk to him and have confidence, that same guy is going to lead the team and beat Florida or Auburn, so I think there's something to that."
Said McElwain: "Each position has some critical factors that allow him to at least pass the initial piece of whether he has an opportunity to be successful based on the traits. For us, based on a quarterback standpoint, it says a lot about a kid that had as many opportunities to go somewhere else and be the guy and do all that and yet he chose to stick it out and work his tail off. For Kyle, he worked through everything and got to where he is now."