In 1967, Indiana rode victories over Michigan, Michigan State and No. 3 Purdue to a No. 4 final Associated Press ranking and the program's lone Rose Bowl bid. This year the Hoosiers are aiming even higher, at least for now. They are 4-0 and in the AP top 10 for the first time since early 1969. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, their current odds of reaching the College Football Playoff are better than those of heavyweights like Georgia and Oklahoma.
The problem? Indiana is playing Ohio State on Saturday. The No. 3-ranked Buckeyes are still, per Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, favored by 20.5 points.
The history of top-10 matchups with huge spreads tells us that while we probably know how Saturday's game will go, there's a slight chance the outcome will be memorable. Here are the 12 times top-10 teams have met in a game with a spread of more than 17 points since 1978:
Jan. 1, 1987: No. 3 Oklahoma (-17.5) 42, No. 9 Arkansas 8
The general theme of these contests: upstart vs. established behemoth. Arkansas had been a borderline top-10 team for a couple of years, but Oklahoma was in the middle of an incredible run. From 1985 through 1987, the Sooners went 33-3 -- 0-3 against Miami, 33-0 against everyone else. And in an Orange Bowl remembered primarily for Oklahoma's suspended star linebacker Brian Bosworth wearing a "National Communists Against Athletes" shirt on the sideline, the Sooners rolled.
Spencer Tillman ran for 109 yards and two first-half touchdowns in just seven rushes. The Sooners added two more TDs in both the third and fourth quarters. And against probably the best defense in the country, Arkansas couldn't get on the board until the final minute. Linebacker Dante Jones made nine solo tackles, picked off one pass and broke up another, and Oklahoma averaged 7.8 yards per play to Arkansas' 3.1.
Oct. 5, 1991: No. 1 Florida State (-17.5) 46, No. 10 Syracuse 14
An early-season upset of No. 5 Florida vaulted Paul Pasqualoni's Syracuse into the top 10. And against top-ranked Florida State in Tallahassee, the Orange struck first. Qadry Ismail, Rocket's younger brother, scored on a 44-yard pass from Marvin Graves on the second play of the game, then returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown late in the first quarter.
Once Florida State finally took the lead midway through the second quarter, however, Syracuse was done. The Seminoles scored the game's final 39 points (29 after halftime) and outgained the Orange 642-185. Casey Weldon finished 22-for-35 for 347 yards, and after that first drive, Graves went just 5-for-16 for 56.
The Seminoles were 10-0 that year before a mid-November classic against No. 2 Miami. You might remember that game as Wide Right I.
Oct. 21, 1995: No. 2 Nebraska (-23.5) 49, No. 8 Kansas State 25
Nov. 11, 1995: No. 1 Nebraska (-25) 41, No. 10 Kansas 3
In the mid-1990s, Kansas State's trajectory under coach Bill Snyder was measured by how far the Wildcats could rise before inevitably getting waxed by Nebraska. The Wildcats started 5-0 in 1993, then lost to the Cornhuskers by 17. They were 4-0 when they lost by a respectable 11 in 1994, and were 6-0 and in the top 10 for the first time ever when they went to Lincoln to face maybe the best Nebraska team ever in 1995.
Kansas State's Kevin Lockett scored midway through the first quarter to make it 7-6 Nebraska, but the Wildcats were too charged up, and the Cornhuskers just too good. Nebraska scored 35 consecutive points before Kansas State added a trio of scores in garbage time.
Three weeks later, the best Kansas team in 20 years welcomed Nebraska to town. To their credit, Glen Mason's Jayhawks moved the ball pretty well, gaining 345 yards compared to Nebraska's 385. But it's not a good idea to turn the ball over five times against the best team in the country. Nebraska led only 14-3 at halftime, but then the steamrollering began. And with Kansas driving with a chance to at least cover the spread late, Mike Fullman picked off a pass and took it 86 yards for the final score instead.
Nov. 29, 1996: No. 4 Nebraska (-18) 17, No. 5 Colorado 12
Before Nebraska could take on Texas in the inaugural Big 12 championship in 1996, Tom Osborne's squad had to survive a huge test from Rick Neuheisel's 9-1 Colorado.
The Cornhuskers had rebounded well from an early loss to Arizona State, outscoring their next eight opponents by an average of 52-9, but they were uncharacteristically sloppy against the Buffaloes, losing four fumbles and committing 11 penalties. However, linebacker Jay Foreman took a batted pass 21 yards for a pick-six in the first quarter, and Nebraska parried a series of Colorado attacks, forcing four field goals and holding on for dear life.
As it turned out, the game was an omen. Seven days later, Nebraska lost two more fumbles and fell to Texas 37-27, despite being a three-touchdown favorite in the conference title game.
Dec. 5, 1998: No. 10 Texas A&M 36, No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5) 33
Kansas State had patiently waited its turn. From 1994 to 1996, the Wildcats had gone 0-6 against Colorado and Nebraska and 28-2 against everyone else. In 1997 they finally got past Colorado, but finished 11-1 with a loss to the Cornhuskers. And in 1998 they finally cleared both hurdles and reached their first Big 12 championship game, unbeaten and one win from a berth in the BCS title game.
They remained one win short. A 27-12 fourth-quarter lead vanished thanks to two Branndon Stewart touchdown passes, the second to Sirr Parker with 1:05 remaining. K-State completed a long Hail Mary at the end of regulation, but Everett Burnett was tackled at the Texas A&M 1-yard line, and after the teams traded field goals in overtime, A&M faced a third-and-17. Stewart went back to Parker, who dodged one tackler and raced for the pylon and an all-time upset.
Sept. 11, 1999: No. 1 Florida State (-18) 41, No. 10 Georgia Tech 35
Nov. 4, 2000: No. 4 Florida State (-19.5) 54, No. 10 Clemson 7
George O'Leary's Georgia Tech came to Tallahassee early in the season and outgained Florida State 501-444. Joe Hamilton, the eventual Heisman runner-up, completed 22 of 25 passes (14-for-14 in the second half) for 387 yards and four touchdowns. But Peter Warrick caught eight passes for 142 yards, and the Seminoles scored on both the last drive of the first half and first drive of the second. That was enough to give Florida State a late 41-28 lead.
Hamilton connected with Kelly Campbell for a 22-yard touchdown with 1:35 left, but Florida State's Travis Minor fell on the ensuing onside kick and the Seminoles survived. They would go on to beat Virginia Tech for the national title.
Another star quarterback wouldn't fare as well as Hamilton the following year. Clemson's Woody Dantzler would eventually become the first 2,000/1,000 quarterback (2,000 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards in the same season), but he went just 7-for-21 with 8 rushing yards against Florida State. Bobby Bowden made an example of his son Tommy, Clemson's head coach, and the Seminoles outgained the Tigers 771-262 in a laugher.
Dec. 1, 2001: No. 5 Tennessee 34, No. 2 Florida (-17.5) 32
You could make a pretty definitive case that only one team had enough upside to hang with Miami in 2001's BCS title game. But Steve Spurrier's Gators never got that chance. In a game rescheduled in the aftermath of 9/11, Heisman finalist Rex Grossman threw for 362 yards, including 115 to Reche Caldwell and 101 to Jabar Gaffney. But the Gators kept settling for Jeff Chandler field goals, and when Travis Stephens ripped off a 68-yard run to set up a short touchdown, Tennessee suddenly led 34-26.
Florida mounted a late 66-yard drive and punched the ball in on a 2-yard Grossman-to-Carlos Perez pass with 1:10 left. But Grossman couldn't connect with a well-guarded Gaffney on the 2-point conversion, and thanks primarily to Stephens' 226 yards -- Florida had been allowing only 86 rushing yards per game to that point -- Tennessee pulled off a huge upset.
Nov. 2, 2013: No. 3 Florida State (-21.5) 41, No. 7 Miami 14
Florida State finished in the AP top 5 for 14 consecutive years from 1987 to 2000, maybe the greatest streak of consistently elite play in college football history. But the Seminoles were in the middle of a 12-year top-5 drought when redshirt freshman Jameis Winston took over at quarterback and Jimbo Fisher's team caught fire.
FSU had already destroyed No. 3 Clemson 51-14 in Death Valley when another top-10 team, unbeaten Miami, came to town. Al Golden's Hurricanes had survived a series of close games, but this one wasn't close. Miami's Allen Hurns caught two touchdown passes from Stephen Morris and Florida State led only 21-14 at halftime, but Winston and the Seminoles were too good. They outgained Miami 517-275 for the game and went on a 20-0 run after the break. Six games later, Florida State would secure its third (and final, to date) national title.
Oct. 22, 2016: No. 1 Alabama (-18) 33, No. 6 Texas A&M 14
After back-to-back 8-5 seasons, Kevin Sumlin's Texas A&M looked ready for higher heights in 2016. The 6-0 Aggies had blown out a ranked Arkansas team, and although they had blown fourth-quarter leads against both No. 16 UCLA and No. 9 Tennessee, they had rebounded to win both games in overtime. Could Trevor Knight and A&M give the defending national champs a go in Tuscaloosa, Alabama?
No, but they tried. Texas A&M took a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter on a 25-yard touchdown pass from Knight to Christian Kirk, but Alabama responded with a TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Calvin Ridley. Then the Crimson Tide all but put the game away with a Jonathan Allen fumble return. The Tide eventually cruised, and A&M lost its final three SEC games and once again finished 8-5.
Nov. 23, 2019: No. 2 Ohio State (-20.5) 28, No. 9 Penn State 17
Call this the segue to Ohio State-Indiana. Just last year, Ryan Day's Buckeyes faced a similar scenario. A loss to unbeaten Minnesota had knocked Penn State out of the top 5, but the Nittany Lions still controlled their Big Ten and College Football Playoff destiny if they could pull a big upset in Columbus, Ohio.
They couldn't. Onetime Penn State commit Justin Fields completed 16 of 22 passes, and J.K. Dobbins ground out 157 yards on 36 carries. Things got weird in the third quarter -- down 21-0, Penn State recovered two fumbles and unleashed a 17-0 run over four minutes to charge back despite an injury to starting quarterback Sean Clifford. But a Fields-to-Chris Olave touchdown gave the Buckeyes a cushion, and the Nittany Lions ran out of gas. Ohio State won the Big Ten two weeks later before falling to Clemson in an all-time classic in the CFP semifinals.
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In 12 games in this sample, the favorite won 10 of them (83%) by an average score of 38-18. The SP+ projection for Ohio State-Indiana is remarkably close to that, giving the Buckeyes an 87% chance of winning, with an average projected score of 39.2 to 20.0. But if you're a Hoosiers fan looking for hope, know that for every small handful of 41-14s, there's a Sirr Parker, a Travis Stephens and an upset bid in the works.