The Pac-12 kicks off championship week Friday night. For the first time since 2016, there's a reason for the College Football Playoff selection committee to tune in.
Committee members have tracked No. 5 Utah all season. They already know what the rest of the country is starting to find out: The Utes are one of the most complete teams.
Utah's starting defense is filled with players who will suit up in the NFL in 2020. Its offense is surging behind two older players, quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss, and a new/old coordinator in Andy Ludwig. The Utes have won 10 games by 18 points or more. They're one of only three FBS teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in yards per play and yards per play allowed. The others are Ohio State and Clemson.
Is Utah a top-four team? We'll find out in six days, although the Utes can take a big step closer to their first CFP appearance by winning their first Pac-12 championship Friday against No. 14 Oregon.
"We're here, and I hope you're ready," safety Julian Blackmon said, "because if we get to the playoffs, we're going to beat somebody's brains in."
Here's why the Pac-12's lone playoff hopeful could bust its way into the field.
Why Utah has a case for the No. 4 spot
The race for the final playoff spot(s) usually becomes a beauty contest of one-loss teams. Utah walks down the catwalk with no obvious blemishes.
Start with a defense that has held six opponents to seven points or fewer. Utah has two shutouts and hasn't allowed a point in 10 halves this season. The Utes lead the nation in rush defense (56.3 ypg allowed) and rank in the top four in points allowed, total yards allowed and red zone defense.
Asked how many of Utah's starting defenders will play in the NFL, coach Kyle Whittingham laughed and said, "A lot."
"It allows you to do whatever you want on defense, within reason," he continued. "You've got to be sound, but it gives our coordinator, Morgan Scalley, a lot of freedom. The two biggest commodities on defense are a lockdown corner and an edge pass-rusher. In Jaylon Johnson and Bradlee Anae, we've got those two weapons. It's a defense that is completely solidified and strong at all three levels."
Utah knew it would have a nationally elite defensive line when Anae and tackle Leki Fotu, both first-team All-Pac-12 players in 2018, opted to return for their senior seasons. Sophomore defensive end Mika Tafua is the only non-senior starter on the line.
"If you want to run [against Utah]," Blackmon said, "good luck."
The secondary also projected well with Johnson, a first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2018 who barely sees passes thrown his way. Blackmon, a two-time all-league selection at cornerback, shifted to safety this year and leads Utah in interceptions (four).
Although Utah had to fill Blackmon's cornerback spot and the other safety role, its biggest challenges came at linebacker, after losing first-team all-league performer Chase Hansen and leading tackler Cody Barton.
But Francis Bernard and Devin Lloyd have eased concerns. Bernard had a pick-six in the opener against BYU. He has two interceptions and 73 tackles, while Lloyd has 76 tackles and 4.5 sacks.
"People questioned my ability coming into this year and rightfully so, because the last two guys were amazing," Bernard said. "I'm forever thankful for Cody and Chase for showing what it's like to be a true linebacker at the University of Utah. There's a lot of questions, but for the most part, Devin and I have answered those questions, if not gone past the expectations."
A productive and efficient offense
Utah's defense is its signature, but the Utes wouldn't be a CFP contender without a productive and efficient offense. After cycling through seven offensive coordinators between 2009 and 2018, Whittingham brought back Ludwig, who held the job from 2005 to 2008.
Ludwig's offense leads the Pac-12 in rushing (no surprise) and yards per pass attempt (surprise). Huntley has blossomed in the system, ranking second nationally in completion percentage (75.5%), fifth in passing efficiency (188.7 rating) and fifth in total QBR (87.5).
"Heisman-worthy numbers," Whittingham said.
Huntley and Ludwig hit it off immediately. Huntley "didn't bat an eye from Day 1," Ludwig said. Huntley initially felt frustration with a coordinator change before his final season but connected with Ludwig at their first meeting.
"He just explained to me that I've been through a lot, and he's trying to make it right," Huntley said. "Once the year started, I felt even more comfortable. It's a big difference, but Andy Lud's been around the game for a long time. He's doing a great job of putting me in a great position."
"He's done an awesome job with that kid," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said of Ludwig. "Whittingham finally has the coordinator he always wanted. He does a really good job, tailors to what they do best."
Ludwig said Utah runs the "1.0 version" of his offense, combining what Huntley did well in the previous system with his own concepts. Perhaps the biggest change is tempo. Last year, Utah averaged 69.4 offensive plays per game, logging 29:50 of possession time. This season, the Utes average 65.7 plays and rank second nationally in average possession time (34.53).
Their defense averages 57.5 plays, down from 68.3 in 2018.
"At one point, we were over 100 plays less as a defense, because [the offense is] on the field and grinding the clock and eating up clock," Scalley said. "It's the team approach of how we win, not just how do you perform on separate sides of the ball. It matches our style of play."
Shouldering the Pac-12's CFP hopes
Oregon's loss to Arizona State on Nov. 23 prevented the Pac-12's dream title game matchup of two 11-1 teams. The league's CFP hopes rest with Utah, which lacks Oregon's national profile but looks like a superior team.
"I feel like the rest of the country is always kind of sleeping on us," Blackmon said. "They're like, 'They're playing in the Pac-12. They're not that [good].'"
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott is confident the selection committee doesn't think this way. Scott also acknowledges there's a "lag factor" in the attention Utah receives despite its sustained success -- 11 seasons of nine or more wins since 2003, including two AP top-four finishes -- but not among those determining the top four.
"Those that really follow football closely recognize that Utah has been a team that's been consistently strong," Scott said. "They were in our championship game last year, for example. They've got a tremendous record. Kyle Whittingham is considered one of the elite coaches. What's a little bit new this year is how exciting their offense is.
"Utah's always had a strong reputation for defense and they've got one of the best in the country this year, but Tyler Huntley, Zack Moss have been flying a little bit under the radar. I'm glad that's starting to change."
Two other groups that don't need convincing about Utah are coaches and NFL scouts. Ask any coach -- Pac-12 or otherwise -- about the Utes and they'll start gushing. As a Pac-12 coordinator told me this summer, "They're physical as hell. They have as good a chance to win the whole thing as anybody."
Scouts are similarly effusive about the Utes, who had five players drafted this spring and eight in 2017, a team record and most among Pac-12 teams. Utah is nowhere to be found in ESPN's recruiting rankings.
"What's nice is when you have NFL scouts that come to your facility [and say], 'Man, your guys play hard,'" Scalley said. "That's the culture. That's what fires me up, when what people are saying about you matches what you're asking."
Whittingham knows Pac-12 perception has taken a beating recently, but he thinks the conference's balance is unmatched. Going undefeated is hard, especially with a nine-game league schedule and an aggressive nonleague scheduling approach. Whittingham opposes a playoff system "governed by people voting" and soon expects an expanded system that includes every power conference champion.
Utah can help itself with an emphatic final statement, especially since it finally has the national stage.
"It's great for the league when somebody can get into the playoff," a Pac-12 head coach said. "They are big and physical, and they've got good skill on both sides."
Although the Utes can't change the Pac-12's middling state -- Utah, Oregon and USC are the league's only teams with more than seven wins -- it can reinforce its case as a dominant team and a complete team, which the committee has recognized with its recent rankings.
"We put it on tape every single week," Bernard said. "We're arguably the best defense in the country, arguably the best team at controlling the ball in the country. So every single time people watch us, they better know we're the real deal."
'We wanted to be the first Utah team to enter the College Football Playoff'
During Utah's first seven seasons in the Pac-12, it went 28-35 in league play, losing four or more conference games in all but one of those years. The Utes broke through last year, winning their first South Division title, but lost 10-3 to Washington in a Pac-12 title game that didn't do much to help the league's rep.
Utah had five juniors earn first- or second-team All-Pac-12 honors: Anae, Fotu, Blackmon, Moss and defensive tackle John Penisini. All opted to return to chase a conference championship -- and more.
"It was definitely in all of our minds, a potential playoff berth," Blackmon said. "We needed to finish what we didn't finish last year. That was another reason why we wanted to come back, because we wanted to be the first Utah team to enter the College Football Playoff.
"It'd mean everything to this program."
Week 14 notes
As North Carolina coach Mack Brown prepared for a team meeting Sunday afternoon, he tried to square his view of a 6-6 regular season with those of his players. To be clear, Brown is thrilled that the Tar Heels reached bowl eligibility and beat rivals Duke and NC State after going winless against them the previous three seasons.
But Brown knows this season could have been even sweeter, as UNC dropped all six games by seven points or fewer, including a one-point loss to defending national champion Clemson, a six-overtime defeat at Virginia Tech and another overtime setback at Pitt.
"To their credit, they never quit," Brown told me Sunday. "They just keep coming back and coming back. They kept looking at us, wanting to know, 'How do you win?' If you look at it, they've only won two Power 5 games for the last two years. They feel like this is a huge success, where I'm a little disappointed.
"I was probably unrealistic with my expectations."
Brown noted the injuries UNC dealt with this year, especially in the secondary. The Tar Heels played a lot of young players, including freshman quarterback Sam Howell, who on Saturday became just the fifth UNC quarterback to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season (3,347). Howell passed for a career-high 401 yards against NC State and now has 35 touchdown passes, tied for fourth most in ACC history.
"His temperament and personality never changes," Brown said of Howell, who reminds the coach of another former UNC freshman quarterback, Jason Stanicek, who started for Brown in 1991. "He's about the same, if he throws a touchdown pass or gets sacked. It's weird. But that's been good for us."
Brown's message to the team Sunday is not to be satisfied. UNC hasn't won a bowl game since the 2013 Belk Bowl.
"We can't stop here," he said. "Try to move forward and make that the first next step."
I finally got the chance to see LSU's offense in person Saturday night, and quarterback Joe Burrow, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and the others put on an incredible show. But when I talked with SEC coaches about LSU, they repeatedly highlighted potential problems at the line of scrimmage. LSU's defensive line isn't filled with All-Americans, and the offensive line hasn't received much credit for the unit's record-setting season.
But the Tigers dominated the line of scrimmage against Texas A&M, a very good sign entering a tougher trench test in the SEC championship against Georgia. Texas A&M's defense knew it had to attack Burrow to have any chance, but LSU kept the Heisman Trophy front-runner relatively clean, giving him ample time to find Chase and others for big gains.
Perhaps more encouraging was LSU's defensive front seven, which held Texas A&M to 16 first-half rush yards and 72 for the game. The Tigers recorded six sacks (six different players had at least a half-sack), eight tackles for loss (eight players contributed) and five quarterback pressures (four players contributed). Texas A&M's offensive line and run game aren't in Georgia's class, but LSU certainly took a step.
"I rushed more than I have all year," said outside linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson, who had 1.5 sacks and credited coordinator Dave Aranda for a strong game plan. "I feel like every time I rush, I do great."
Defensive lineman Breiden Fehoko added: "Coach [Ed Orgeron] makes it an emphasis every day about how it starts and ends in the trenches. Coming into every game, we have to control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense."
After a wild Sunday for the college coaching carousel, I thought about something an agent told me weeks ago about this year's cycle: Schools will be motivated to enter the market because it's not that crowded.
Ole Miss, Missouri and Boston College all could have retained their coaches and not faced much blowback.
Missouri and Boston College fired career .500 coaches after 6-6 seasons.
But all three teams opted for changes and have fairly strong candidate pools in a year when a relatively low number of Power 5 jobs are expected to open.
There's a strong group of Group of 5 coaches available, from Memphis' Mike Norvell to Louisiana-Lafayette's Billy Napier to Cincinnati's Luke Fickell to Boise State's Bryan Harsin to Appalachian State's Eliah Drinkwitz to Florida Atlantic's Lane Kiffin.
There could even be some Power 5 coaches to poach, like Indiana's Tom Allen. And there's a strong retread market with Bret Bielema, Gene Chizik, Larry Fedora, Jim Mora and others.
Dismissing coaches who have had success is never easy, especially when big buyouts like Matt Luke's are in play. But these programs can capitalize on a candidate market that figures to be much more competitive in 2020.