The Texas Longhorns have not won 10 or more games in seven straight seasons, and getting back to that double-digit victory level will be a primary long-term goal for new head coach Tom Herman. After looking over the situation, it becomes clear that the elements are in place for Texas to end this double-digit win drought as early as next season.
(Note: unless otherwise specified, all of the metrics detailed below are from Power 5 contests, and the associated team and player rankings are from the 65 Power 5 teams.)
Not far from a lot more wins
The Longhorns won only five games last season, but they had five losses by seven or fewer points, a total second only to Notre Dame (six losses) among Power 5 teams versus all competition levels. That indicates it likely won't take much improvement to add wins to the bottom line.
Herman is an expert at pushing his players to their potential
One of the main reasons Texas hasn't won more games of late is they don't play to their talent level. That makes this program tailor-made for Herman's approach, as his history shows that he has mastered the methods Urban Meyer uses to get the most out of his talented rosters..
Superb recruiting classes
Herman definitely inherits a talented roster, as the Longhorns on-field struggles have not led to a decline in recruiting. From 2014-2016, Texas ranked eighth among Power 5 teams in the number of signed ESPN 300 recruits (34).
These classes have generated many top-notch returning players, including two 2016 ESPN All-Big 12 first team players (offensive tackle Connor Williams and punter Michael Dickson) and two All-Big 12 second team players (linebacker Breckyn Hager and defensive tackle Poona Ford). Add these to the six other players who made the ESPN All-Big 12 top freshmen or underclassmen teams and it illustrates just how much elite ability is on the 2017 Texas roster.
A potentially powerful passing attack
Herman has indicated nobody on this team is guaranteed a starter's spot. Having noted this, Shane Buechele seemingly has the inside track to keep his starting quarterback's role.
Buechele did have some notable achievements last season, including setting the Texas freshman record for most passing yards in a season (2,958) and placing second in touchdown passes by a freshman (21). He also ranked third in the Big 12 and 12th among Power 5 quarterbacks in ESPN Stats & Information's off-target percentage metric that measures how often a passer throws an off-target pass (9.1 percent).
One of the main factors in Buechele's success was an offensive line that ranked sixth in pressure percentage, allowing its quarterbacks to be sacked, hit or put under duress on only 18.2 percent of dropbacks. This unit returns four starters in 2017, so whoever wins the battle for the starting quarterback position should be able to count on elite pass protection.
Whoever starts at quarterback will also benefit from one of the most experienced receiving corps in college football. Texas returns seven of eight wide receivers who caught 10 or more passes last season, including freshman sensation Devin Duvernay, whose 20.6 yards per reception ranked sixth among pass catchers with 20 or more receptions in 2016.
The foundation for an elite rushing attack
The four returning offensive line starters were equally adept at run blocking, as they were key to Texas ranking second in percentage of rushes that gained zero or negative yards (17.3 percent), fifth in rush yards per game (245.5) and 13th in rush yards before first defensive contact (144.5).
D'Onta Foreman's departure to the NFL is a big loss, but Texas has a strong potential replacement in Chris Warren III. Warren set the Texas freshman records for rushing yards (276) and rushing touchdowns (4) in a single game during the 2015 season. Last season, Warren nearly equaled Foreman's percentage of rushing plays that gained 5 or more yards (44.9 percent for Foreman, 43.5 percent for Warren). Warren was also only slightly behind Foreman in percentage of rushes gaining 10 or more yards (12.9 percent for Warren, 15.2 percent for Foreman) and had a higher average yards gained after first defensive contact (2.6 for Warren, 2.2 for Foreman).
The makings of a very good defense
Bringing back as many as 10 starters from a defense that allowed 400 or more yards in eight out of 12 games may not sound like a plus, but it's worth noting that the Longhorns defense made some major strides late in the season. In the month of November, the Texas defense ranked first in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game (421), first in yards per play (5.1), second in interceptions (6), first in rushing yards per carry (4.0) and second in rushing yards per game (162.5). This improved performance could serve as a building block for the 2017 Longhorns defense.
A huge upgrade at kicker
Texas had a major placekicking issue last year, as Trent Domingue ranked 46th in field goal percentage among the 57 kickers who had at least 20 field goal attempts (65.0), 48th in field goal percentage on kicks of fewer than 40 yards (76.5) and was next-to-last in extra point percentage (89.7 percent).
The Longhorns could see a huge upgrade in this area via junior college transfer Joshua Rowland, whose ESPN recruiting write-up says, "he flat out makes kicks." This trait certainly showed up over the past two seasons, as Rowland made 25 of 31 field goals and 76 of 77 extra points at Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College. If he can take over as the starting kicker and continue to connect at his juco pace, Rowland could convert a couple of potential close losses to wins all by himself.
Schedule offers a path to 10 wins
The favorable part of the 2017 Longhorns schedule features matchups against Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, San Jose State, Texas Tech and TCU. If Herman's turnaround takes place, it is not difficult to imagine at least five wins in this matchup slate, as these teams had a combined record of 26-48 last season.
If that happens, it will take at least four wins in the other seven regular-season games and possibly a bowl matchup to put the Longhorns into contention for 10 wins.
It will be very difficult to defeat USC in Los Angeles, but Oklahoma is losing a ton of talent after only defeating the Longhorns by five points in this season's Red River Shootout, so that defeat could be converted into a victory. Add in Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia having to replace their quarterbacks, and it starts to become clear that racking up four wins in these seven contests is quite possible.
Bottom line
Herman improved Houston by five wins in his first season with the Cougars, so he has a track record of getting immediate improvement out of a team. If he does that with the elite talent on this club, Herman could add at least five wins and end the double-digit win drought while simultaneously contending for the Big 12 title.