In last year's College Football Playoff National Championship game, the Clemson Tigers lost a 45-40 shootout with the Alabama Crimson Tide. While Clemson could consider using a slower-paced approach that leads to a lower-scoring game in Monday's title game rematch, the reality is the Tigers need to put their foot to the floor on offense and go with the shootout approach again.
Why will it work this time when it fell short last season? There are many reasons pointing in this direction, starting with an edge at quarterback.
(Note: unless otherwise specified, all of the metrics detailed below are from Power 5 contests, and the associated team and player rankings are from the 65 Power 5 teams.)
Clemson has the better quarterback
Jalen Hurts is having possibly the best season ever by an Alabama quarterback due in large part to his posting the highest single-season quarterback rushing yardage total in Crimson Tide history.
As impressive as that performance is, when it comes to overall offensive impact, Deshaun Watson is having a better season than Hurts.
Watson has a huge edge in the vertical passing game (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), as he tops Hurts in Total QBR (89.6 to 71.4) and completion percent (53.3 to 44.0) at this route depth level and has a 25 to 5 edge in vertical touchdown passes.
Watson's 78.8 completion percentage on short passes (targets directed 10 or fewer yards downfield) is the highest among Power 5 quarterbacks and is a main factor in his having an edge over Hurts in short pass Total QBR (78.8 to 63.8).
These statistical advantages more than make up for the rushing edge that Hurts has, as they combine to give Watson an 85.9 overall Total QBR, a mark that ranks fourth and rates 11 spots higher than Hurts 76.1 Total QBR.
The Tigers can slow down Alabama's ground game
Alabama is No. 58 in pass rate, as only 39.6 percent of their offensive plays were pass attempts, so it will aim to counter Clemson's big-play aerial attack by leaning on its ground game.
Clemson may have the tools to make that a lower percentage play than usual: The Tigers ranked tied for eighth in yards allowed before contact per rush (1.8), ninth in percentage of rushes that gain zero or negative yards (29.1 percent) and 10th in yards per rush (3.6). Clemson has shown that this trait can hold up against the Crimson Tide, as the Tigers held Alabama to its third lowest yards per carry total of the past two seasons (3.0) and the fifth lowest single-game rushing total by allowing only 138 rushing yards in last season's CFP title game.
Clemson could also hold Hurts' ground production in check, as the Tigers had the fourth best Total QBR allowed on rushing plays (26.8).
Shutdown cornerback coverage vs. wide receivers
Forcing Alabama to pass the ball could also prove quite beneficial for Clemson due to its expertise at covering wide receivers.
The Tigers have a number of upper-tier rankings in wide receiver coverage metrics, including being tied for third in touchdown receptions allowed (4), sixth in reception percentage (49.7), seventh in receiving yards (1,241) and 13th in receptions (99).
This is the direct result of superb cornerback play. According to STATS, LLC, Cordrea Tankersley ranks tied for 11th in yards per attempt (YPA) allowed among cornerbacks with 25 or more targets this season (4.8). Ryan Carter and Marcus Edmond aren't far behind with 5.3 and 5.2 YPA totals, respectively.
This should allow the Tigers to trust their cornerback trio to slow down Alabama's superb 1-2 wide receiver combination of Ardarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley and direct most of their defensive coverage calls to an area that crushed the Clemson defense in last year's CFP title game.
Improved tight end coverage
Alabama was able to overcome their subpar rushing performance in the CFP title game last year in large part due to racking up an insanely high 13.4 YPA in its passing game, which is the highest single-game YPA the Tigers have allowed since 2011.
The key to this was O.J. Howard catching all five of his targets and racking up 208 yards, two touchdowns and a 41.6-yards per reception average. Had Howard not hit as many big plays as he did last season, it is likely Clemson would be the defending national champion headed into this contest.
Clemson still has some issues covering tight ends. The Tigers place next-to-last among Power 5 teams in passing yards allowed to opponents' tight ends (501) and tied for 56th in tight end receptions (35), but they allowed 50 or fewer receiving yards to tight ends in nine contests this year. The Tigers also gave up on only one reception in 10 targets to tight ends in the ACC Championship against Virginia Tech and CFP semifinal game against Ohio State, so their tight end coverage right now may be as strong as it has been all season long.
Bottom line
Coaching legend Bum Phillips was once asked how a head coach should approach a big game. His advice was to "dance with who brung ya," which was his way of saying that you should stick with what has been working.
That's what Clemson should do in this game. The Tigers' high-powered approach nearly led them to a national championship last season, and it has brought them back to the title game for a second time, so it isn't the time to start second-guessing things. The Tigers should keep their proverbial foot to the playcalling floor and force Alabama's offense to try to keep up. Given the personnel advantages Clemson has in taking this tack, it has a very good chance of leading the Tigers to the program's second national championship.