The Jalen Hurts Heisman Trophy candidacy has finally gained some steam, and he now ranks third in ESPN's Heisman Watch polling.
Even with this recent ascension, Hurts still has to be considered an outside contender, given that Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson garnered all of the first-place votes.
Since the actual Heisman first-place voting is likely to mimic these results, it's clear that Hurts will probably not be hoisting the trophy, but it does raise the question of what else the Heisman voters want Hurts to do. All he has done is have arguably the best season ever by an Alabama quarterback. It's also fair to question why Louisville's cream-puff schedule this season isn't being factored into Jackson's Heisman equation more.
Best season ever by an Alabama quarterback
Saying Hurts could be having the best season ever by an Alabama quarterback might sound hyperbolic, but there are some very powerful facts to back it up.
Hurts was not the starter in the Crimson Tide's season-opening contest against the USC Trojans, but that didn't prevent him from becoming the first Alabama quarterback in 15 years to post two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in one game. That Hurts did this despite posting only 11 pass attempts and nine carries is a big part of why he was named the starter heading into Week 2 against Western Kentucky.
In that contest, Hurts became the first true freshman to start at quarterback for the Crimson Tide in 32 years (Vince Sutton, 1984). He quickly showed why that role was well earned, passing for 287 yards, a school record for most passing yards in a starting debut and most passing yards in a game by a freshman.
Hurts rushed for 146 yards against Ole Miss in Week 3, the fifth-most posted by an Alabama quarterback. It made him the first Alabama quarterback in 15 years to rush for 100 or more yards in a game. Hurts later rushed for 132 yards against Tennessee, the sixth-most by an Alabama QB.
Last week, Hurts became the first player in Alabama's storied history to post 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in a game. According to the Alabama sports information department, Hurts is the only quarterback to throw and rush for 100 yards in a game in Nick Saban's 21 seasons as a collegiate head coach.
All of these incredible rushing achievements have led to Hurts being only 57 yards away from breaking Steadman Shealy's record for the highest single-season rushing total by an Alabama quarterback (791 yards). Hurts is also on pace to set team records for highest total yards per game and most total yards posted in a season.
The 27 touchdowns Hurts has accounted for (16 passing, 11 rushing) place him fifth all-time in Alabama's single-season touchdowns responsible category. He just passed Shaun Alexander and Trent Richardson on that list and is nine short of taking over first place. At his current pace of 2.7 touchdowns per game, Hurts could tie Blake Sims for the top spot here in the SEC Championship game.
Incredibly tough schedule
Those statistical achievements alone can support the claim of Hurts having the best season ever by an Alabama quarterback, but let's not forget the Tide's incredibly difficult schedule.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Alabama has faced the most difficult schedule of any team in college football. That schedule strength might drop a bit when the Crimson Tide host Chattanooga in Week 12, but a matchup against archrival Auburn in Week 13, a team that ranks eighth in the FPI, should keep Alabama in strong contention for the most difficult schedule strength, even before its matchup against the SEC East champion in the conference title game.
Lamar Jackson playing Madden on the easy level
Jackson does have a statistical advantage over Hurts, but let's put some perspective on that edge.
Jackson has averaged 138 more total yards and one touchdown per game more than Hurts in Power 5 contests (if the partial game Hurts played against USC is counted as a full contest), but he posted those numbers against a schedule the FPI rates as the sixth-easiest among Power 5 teams.
The ACC isn't a particularly tough conference in general, and Jackson has been fortunate to not have played three of the top five teams in the ACC in terms of passing yards allowed per Power 5 game (Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami). He also hasn't faced two of the top five ACC defenses in terms of Total QBR allowed (Miami and Virginia Tech) and just had by far his worst game of the season against a Wake Forest team that ranks second in the ACC in Total QBR allowed in Power 5 contests (26.3).
Jackson's numbers are the equivalent of playing Madden NFL '17 on the easy level and winning by a 70-7 score. Hurts' statistics might not be quite as spectacular, but he did it against the collegiate equivalent of the All-Madden level and won his games by nearly as many points.
Bottom line
Hurts almost certainly won't win the Heisman Trophy, but if their schedule strengths were switched, does anyone actually think he would not equal or surpass Jackson's numbers? Or if Louisville had to play Alabama's brutally tough schedule, does anyone think Jackson's numbers wouldn't fall to or below the bar that Hurts set? If those questions ring as true as the metrics say they should, Hurts, not Jackson, should be the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.