The #CFBRank Top 100 player countdown for 2016 is all wrapped up, which means you can start filling out your national awards ballots.
Or not.
Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, the 2015 Heisman runner-up, didn't even make the top 100 last season. Neither did national award winners like Iowa cornerback Desmond King and Temple linebacker Tyler Matakevich. Alabama's Derrick Henry, the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner, was No. 23 in #CFBrank, one spot behind Clemson's Deshaun Watson, another eventual Heisman finalist.
#CFBRank might not prove prophetic, but it stirs preseason debate, especially about players deemed overrated or underrated.
Which players on this year's Top 100 fit the bill? Insider considered several factors in determining overrated and underrated players on this year's list, but past production trumped future potential. Input from coaches also went into composing these choices.
Overrated
Jabrill Peppers, Michigan, Jr., LB/WR/Returner
#CFBRank: No. 9
Big Ten media days resembled an infomercial for Peppers, as Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and others lauded his otherworldly talents. He's an excellent athlete who arrived as the nation's No. 2 recruit in the 2014 class.
But, as one Big Ten coach noted, "I just don't know what Peppers is." Michigan hopes he's a transcendent strong-side linebacker after making the move from safety. But Peppers (45 tackles, 10 pass breakups, 5.5 tackles for loss in 2015) hasn't made enough "wow" plays on defense to be considered a top 10 national player entering this season.
He certainly could end up there in January because of his potential, not only on defense, but on special teams and, perhaps, offense. But as of right now, he doesn't belong ahead of elite defenders like Alabama's Jonathan Allen and Florida's Jalen Tabor.
Raekwon McMillan, Ohio State, Jr., LB
#CFBRank: No. 17
If you start with a Michigan guy, you have to balance it out, right? In all seriousness, if #CFBRank were a pure projection, both Peppers and McMillan would be fine where they are ranked. But look at the more accomplished college defenders surrounding McMillan (Alabama's Allen, LSU's Jamal Adams) or well below him (Louisville's Devonte Fields, Northwestern's Anthony Walker). McMillan is a formidable talent who has produced for a loaded Ohio State defense the past two seasons. He's certainly a top-40 player with the chance to surge much higher as the Buckeyes' defensive leader this season, but No. 17 is too high.
Adoree' Jackson, USC, Jr., DB/WR/Return
#CFBRank: No. 21
Like Peppers, Jackson brings plenty of flash and position slashes. But like Peppers, he's a uniquely versatile player who hasn't found a clear role in which to shine, other than on kickoff returns, where he already ranks fourth on USC's career yards list (1,374). It's easy to witness Jackson's insane athleticism and label him a sure-fire All-American. But he has made more impact plays on offense and special teams than on defense, his primary role. Jackson is one of the most exciting and intriguing all-around players in college football, but to place him in the top 25 is a stretch until we see more from him at cornerback.
Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, So., WR/Returner
#CFBRank: No. 28
Kirk was a joy to watch in 2015 and made an immediate impact for the Aggies, eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards and adding two punt return touchdowns as a true freshman. It appears as if voters got a bit carried away with highlights from an excellent debut in Aggieland, but it's difficult to argue Kirk should be ahead of players like Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly, Alabama edge rusher Tim Williams and Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama, So., RB
#CFBRank: No. 49
Scarbrough's placement isn't as outrageous as others on this list, but to label him a top-50 player with only 18 career carries is overly presumptuous. Yes, he's another gifted running back at a school that mass-produces stars at the position. But top-50 players should have more concrete evidence supporting them. Scarbrough shouldn't be ahead of Penn State's Saquon Barkley or Washington's Myles Gaskin, both of whom were much more productive as freshmen (Gaskin rushed for 1,302 yards and 14 touchdowns, and Barkley had 1,076 rush yards and seven touchdowns).
Underrated
Sidney Jones, Washington, Jr., CB
#CFBRank: No. 92
Washington has a cluster of players near the bottom of the top 100, a reason why the Huskies are a popular pick to contend in the Pac-12 North. While Gaskin and quarterback Jake Browning have more to prove in a pressure-packed season, Jones should be higher than 92. The first-team All-Pac-12 selection led the league in pass breakups (14), tied for second in forced fumbles (three), tied for fourth in interceptions (four) and tied for fifth in fumble recoveries (two). "Their whole back end is really good, but he's a good player," a Pac-12 coach said. "He's strong, solid."
Devonte Fields, Louisville, Sr., DE
#CFBRank: No. 45
There simply aren't 17 college defenders better than Fields. There might not be 17 better college players this season than the Cardinals senior. Few defensive linemen have been more disruptive than Fields, who led the nation in tackles for loss (22.5) in his first season at Louisville, contributing 11 sacks. He has 41 tackles for loss and 21 sacks in his past two full seasons in the FBS. Fields could end up winning defensive player of the year honors in two leagues after claiming the Big 12 award in 2012 at TCU as a true freshman. "Devonte Fields is not in the 40s; he's higher than that," an ACC coordinator said. "Devonte's a really good player."
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, Jr., QB
#CFBRank: No. 42
Like his coach Kliff Kingsbury and anyone else to call signals for the Red Raiders in recent years, Mahomes fights the "system quarterback" label. It probably hurt him in this voting. He led the nation in total offense and ranked in the top six in completions, points responsible for, passing average and passing touchdowns. Mahomes also rushed for 456 yards and 10 touchdowns. And yet he's well behind signal-callers like Houston's Greg Ward Jr., UCLA's Josh Rosen and Ohio State's J.T. Barrett. "He's got a concept and feel before the snap, and he runs the ball extremely well," said a coach whose team faced Mahomes last year. "He's a pretty accurate passer. I was very impressed with him." Although Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield deserves to be ahead of Mahomes, several Big 12 coaches group them together.
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, Sr., QB
#CFBRank: No. 40
Voters seemingly attributed more of Ole Miss' success to standouts like Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil. Otherwise, it's difficult to justify why Kelly, the SEC's best quarterback and a fringe Heisman candidate, would barely crack the top 40 after a record-setting 2016 season. Kelly finished in the top 10 nationally for passing, total offense and passing touchdowns, and became the first Ole Miss quarterback to record five wins against top-25 teams in the same season. "He's got every throw in the book," an SEC coach said. "He's got a nice touch, a high-velocity ball, he can throw it a country mile. He is a very gifted football player." Kelly might be hurt by having only one FBS season as a starter, but what he did (broke or tied 14 Ole Miss records, beat Alabama and LSU) can't be understated.
Malik McDowell, Jr., Michigan State, DT
#CFBRank: No. 24
McDowell's ranking might not be as egregious as others ... until you speak to folks in Big Ten circles. He's a popular choice to be the league's defensive player of the year this season and could be a top-5 pick in the 2017 NFL draft. The 6-foot-6, 276-pound McDowell has extraordinary length and can play anywhere along the defensive line. "He's got all the tools," a Spartans assistant told Insider. McDowell had 13 tackles for loss (4.5 sacks), two forced fumbles and an interception as a true sophomore. That McDowell is the fifth Big Ten defender listed makes little sense. Arguably, no one in the league will impact his team more this season.