As great as the 2015 Heisman Trophy chase was, the 2016 battle could be even more competitive. There are at least 10 candidates who will start next season with a legitimate chance to be invited to next year's ceremony.
Which of those candidates is most likely to be there? Let's see what the metrics and game tapes have to say about the players likely to start as the top four in the 2016 Heisman Trophy race. If you're wondering where Derrick Henry is, he's not on the list because the assumption is he'll declare for the draft. If he returns, he belongs at No. 1.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents, and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those clubs.)
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson's 2015 campaign was strong enough to earn him an invitation to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but he might be the only elite candidate whose case looks like it could be even stronger next season. There are many things pointing in that direction.
This season, Watson had to deal with not having his top wide receiver (Mike Williams) for most of the year and dropping back behind a retooled offensive line. Clemson looks like it will have three returning starting offensive linemen next year, and it should bring back eight of the nine players who caught 10 or more passes this year and four of the five backs who rushed for 150 or more yards.
The Tigers also have a favorable schedule that includes five games against ACC foes that finished 7-33 in conference play in 2015 (North Carolina State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech), two games against SEC teams that went 3-13 in conference play (Auburn and South Carolina) and contests against Troy and South Carolina State.
Bottom line: Watson was a finalist in 2015 despite having to overcome some less-than-ideal circumstances. The improved conditions in 2016 should allow him to post even better totals and, thus, put him at the top of next season's Heisman contender list.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette started the season by striking a Heisman pose after scoring his first collegiate touchdown. He took the lead in the Heisman race after tallying an SEC-record 200 or more rushing yards in three straight games and was still considered the leading candidate a little over a month ago. Consistency is what put Fournette at the top of that board; his seven straight games with 150 or more rushing yards were the most by any FBS player since Kevin Smith in the 2007 season.
What likely cost Fournette the honor was LSU's three-game losing streak, a stretch in which Fournette posted his only two games this season with fewer than 100 rushing yards. Had the Tigers won one of those games and done so with Fournette posting a big rushing-yardage total, he might have prevented his candidacy from losing steam. That type of drop-off is unlikely to happen next year, given that LSU's out-of-conference slate (which includes favorable matchups against Jacksonville State, Southern Miss and South Alabama) is dotted throughout the season, rather than accounting for three of the first seven games, as was the case this season.
Add that change in schedule circumstances to the Tigers' likely bringing back 10 of 11 starters on offense, and it could be enough to move Fournette back to the top of the list in 2016.
Bottom line: He could be the best running back in the SEC, which is the type of factor that usually provides an inside track to the Heisman.
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Mayfield pilots one of the most successful stretch vertical pass offenses in college football (stretch vertical: aerials that travel 20 or more yards downfield). He was 10th in stretch vertical Total QBR (94.9), tied for fourth in stretch vertical touchdowns (eight) and 13th in stretch vertical yards (634) this season. These numbers are a major part of why Oklahoma has a strong path to win the College Football Playoff.
Mayfield will also benefit from the Sooners' likely bringing back three offensive linemen from this year's club. Oklahoma will lose two of its top three pass-catchers, but it might not lose anyone else who caught a pass this year, so Mayfield will have a stocked offensive roster around him in an effort to become the sixth Sooner to win the Heisman Trophy.
Bottom line: Mayfield's largest impediment will be that the Big 12 has a slew of upper-tier quarterbacks, and Mayfield will have to outperform all of them before Heisman voters will consider him above candidates from other conferences.
4. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
McCaffrey is a throwback to the days when triple-threat running backs ruled the college football world. He is currently first in rushing yards (1,789), tied for first in rushing plays that gained 10 or more yards (49) and third in rushing yards after first defensive contact (559). Those numbers show he can keep up with the other running backs on the ground, but he takes the lead over them when factoring in all yards from scrimmage.
McCaffrey currently ranks first in yards from scrimmage (2,270) and has a 431-yard lead over the second-place finisher in that category (Henry). McCaffrey is also first in rushing yards before contact (1,230), a statistic that speaks to how well his offensive line has blocked this year, but that actually works a bit against him because that group is losing three players to graduation.
Add the loss of quarterback Kevin Hogan, a player who would have had an MVP case this year if college football had such an award, and it could mean McCaffrey has more personnel loss hurdles to overcome than the other top Heisman candidates.
Bottom line: The ability to impact the game at so many levels gives McCaffrey a skill set the other candidates can't match. But how will he do without Hogan & Co.?