The Heisman Trophy aims to define the best player in college football. One downside to this award, however, is that it often goes to the player with the most prolific numbers, rather than someone who is the most valuable player on a club who doesn't post numbers traditionally expected from a Heisman contender.
If such a college MVP award did exist, one of the frontrunners for this honor would be Stanford Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan. His case may not seem compelling at first glance, but upon a closer look, it becomes clear just how impactful Hogan truly is.
(Note: Unless specified otherwise, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those clubs.)
Elite numbers
Hogan ranks fifth in Total QBR (84.9), sixth in yards per attempt (8.9), sixth in touchdown percentage (7.4 percent of his passes have ended up hitting paydirt), 10th in completion percentage (66.4 percent) and 14th in yards per completion (13.3). Hogan is almost unrivaled in his ability to garner first downs, as 41.6 percent of his passes have ended up resulting in a first down, a mark that is second among Power 5 quarterbacks.
Hogan has been especially adept on short passes (defined as aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield), as he ranks second nationally in Total QBR (86.3) and yards per attempt (7.8) on those types of throws.
This is important, because Stanford's offense doesn't emphasize the vertical passing game (defined as passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield).
Stanford has only one wide receiver averaging at least two receptions per game, and that player (Devon Cajuste) has posted exactly two catches per game. The Cardinal also rank 60th in percentage of passes in which the opposing team blitzes (17.8 percent) and yet are still tied for 49th in sack percentage (8.3 percent), so the pass rush is getting to Hogan quite often, even though defenses aren't sending extra pass rushers.
These two factors illustrate that Stanford simply does not have the pass-receiving and pass-blocking tools to allow Hogan to throw deep downfield. Combine that with an ankle injury Hogan suffered in Week 3 against USC, and it means the Cardinal's passing game is going to go as far as the short pass game can carry it. The above numbers show that Hogan has excelled at working his way around that limitation to the extent that the quality of his numbers can go toe-to-toe with just about any quarterback in college football.
Signature performance
Heisman Trophy voters often give extra credit to the player with a signature performance that stands out above the rest.
Hogan would be in good shape if that same rule applied in a college MVP vote, as his game against Washington State was one of the most memorable of the 2015 college football campaign.
The rainy and windy weather in that game made it incredibly difficult to throw short passes, and the Cougars were going all out to keep Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey in check.
That meant Stanford had to lean on Hogan's rushing ability, and he came through in an MVP-caliber way. The best illustration of this is when Hogan broke two tackles on his way to a career-long 59-yard touchdown rush to help Stanford come back from a 12-point third quarter deficit.
That wasn't the only career mark he set in that contest, as it was the first-career 100-yard rushing game for Hogan and the first time he has ever rushed for two touchdowns in a single contest. It was also the only time Hogan has rushed for more yards than he passed for, and he outgained McCaffrey (a leading Heisman Trophy contender) in doing so.
Leadership
If leadership is defined as finding a way to contribute something to the team beyond what you should be able to contribute, Hogan's game against Washington State game fits this definition to a T. It's the kind of determination that comes from enduring the loss of his father to colon cancer and using that perspective to become a more mature leader.
That approach certainly has an impact on his teammates, as they made Hogan the first two-time football team captain on the Stanford roster since Bo McNally in 2008-09.
Bottom line
There isn't a college MVP award, and Hogan is not going to win the Heisman Trophy.
Having said that, maybe Hogan's season will end up being just as memorable in its own way. After the win over the Cougars, Cardinal coach David Shaw called Hogan the type of player "who can will his team to victories." This is the same type of comment that was made about Tim Tebow during his Heisman Trophy season, and it's the sort of thing that will be remembered long after any award ceremony would be forgotten.