Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Phil Steele Week
Get access to Phil Steele's football analysis and find his 2014 preview magazine at PhilSteele.com.
• Projecting Top 25 teams
• Preseason Top 5: FSU No. 1
• Top QBs | RBs
• Top 10 Heisman candidates
• Top 10 surprise teams for 2014
• Most improved teams for 2014
• Ranking every conference in CFB
You might think that Cinderella stories are a one-time thing, but during the past 15 seasons, there have been major surprises at the top of the college football world almost every year: Ohio State in 2002, LSU in 2003 and Auburn in 2010 were all teams that started the season outside the AP Top 10 but surprised nearly everyone and won it all. Last season, Florida State was my No. 1 surprise team in the preseason and became yet another non-preseason top-10 team to take home the crystal ball.
Each of the past five offseasons, I have come up with a projected top 10 of the preseason AP poll on my website. My expected 2014 preseason top 10 included Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Auburn, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State, Baylor and South Carolina. It is likely those teams will make up the top 10 this year, so I did not use any of them as my surprise teams. The following are 10 programs that, while not as highly ranked, have the potential to shock the nation in 2014.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia was a much stronger team at the start of last season than the one that finished 8-5 with a loss to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The key to the downfall of their season was a huge amount of injuries at the skill positions on offense. This season's team caught a break from last season's misfortune, as quarterback Hutson Mason got in nearly three games of experience at the end of 2013. He will also be surrounded by my No. 2 set of running backs in the country, led by Todd Gurley, and my No. 10 set of receivers. The offensive line is a bit of a question but does have 54 career starts among its members.
Last season, they had just three returning starters on defense, and, as you would expect, the inexperienced unit allowed 29 points per game. This season they have eight returning starters, led by a linebacking corps that I rank No. 1 in the country. In 2013, they played Clemson and South Carolina in back-to-back weeks but have a bye between them this time. I really like new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt's attitude on defense, and keep in mind he has coached on the past three national championship teams (Alabama 2011 and 2012, Florida State 2013) and could make it four in a row here.
2. USC Trojans
The Trojans are one of just five teams in the country that have each of their positional units (QB, RB, etc.) rank in my top 40. Scholarship limitations have really limited them as of late, but they have some depth at key positions. There is no disputing a talent like defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft. The Trojans also have my No. 6 defensive line in the country, No. 5 linebackers and No. 3 defensive backs, giving them my No. 2 overall defense.
They do play Stanford and UCLA on the road and will be the underdog in those games. While none of my nine sets of power ratings calls for an unbeaten season, I can say that about most of the teams on this list. I do not have USC in my top 10 this season, but if the Trojans stay healthy and catch a break or two, all of their games are winnable, as new coach Steve Sarkisian will bring renewed optimism.
3. Wisconsin Badgers
It will not take long to find out if the Badgers have what it takes to make a title run, as they open up with LSU in Houston. Wisconsin has my No. 3-rated offensive line, my No. 4 set of running backs and should have improved quarterback play this season. Their defense allowed 278 yards per game until their final two last of 2013, and, while they return only three starters on that side of the ball, I like the replacements.
Dropping off their schedule from last 2013 is Ohio State, and they also avoid Michigan and Michigan State. Their only two tough road games come against teams (Northwestern and Iowa) they beat by a combined 63-15 last season. If they knock off LSU in the opener, they could be favored in all of their other games.
4. TCU Horned Frogs
Four years ago, TCU finished 13-0 and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl to finish No. 2 in the country. Their two seasons in the Big 12 have been a bit rougher, as they are just 11-14 overall and 6-12 in Big 12 play. They might have been a much stronger team last season if not for the loss of two linebackers in the offseason, plus 2012 Big 12 defensive player of the year Devonte Fields to injury after one game. While this team was 4-8 in 2013, seven of its losses saw the Frogs with a chance to win in the fourth quarter or overtime.
This season they have 16 returning starters and get Fields back, plus add Texas A&M transfer quarterback Matt Joeckel. The addition of Joeckel may allow them to move Trevone Boykin to wide receiver or running back, at which he is a threat to score every play. With my No. 5 defensive line, No. 15 linebackers and No. 20 defensive backs, they have my No. 11 overall defense. They do play both Baylor and Texas on the road but beat both on the road in 2012. If you are looking for this season's version of Auburn, which is a team that had just three or four wins the previous season and ended up playing for the national title, you might have just found it.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
Last season, the Tar Heels opened up 2013 at just 1-5 but won six of their final seven, including the Belk Bowl, to finish with a winning record. Their win streak coincided with mobile quarterback Marquise Williams taking over as the starter, as he was the best fit for coach Larry Fedora's offense. It is rare for a team to be down here at No. 5 of my surprises list yet have a set of my power ratings that call for it to go 12-0; however, one of my sets does call for North Carolina to shock the college football world and run the table in the regular season.
Seven of their eight units rank among my top positional units, including the No. 6 special-teams group. I have heard some people criticize Fedora for losing some games he should not have, but he did guide Southern Miss to a school-record 12 wins and a Conference USA title in 2011, and in the two seasons since he left, the Golden Eagles are 1-23. The Tar Heels do have a brutal schedule that includes road trips to Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami (Fla.). However, in my power poll, which looks at just talent and returning experience, the Tar Heels come up stronger than all three of those teams.
6. Ole Miss Rebels
The last time Ole Miss entered the season with this much hype, things did not work out so well. In 2009, the Rebels entered the season No. 8 but ended up 9-4, having to win their bowl just to get back into the rankings (finishing No. 20). It remains the only original SEC West Division team that has still not made a trip to the SEC title game (a span of 21 seasons).
There are many differences between that 2009 team that came up short and this 2014 team. First, in 2009 they were the media pick to win the West; this year, they are not. They also won't be in the preseason AP Top 10. Finally, this season's squad is more talented than the 2009 team, thanks to some great recruiting classes by Hugh Freeze. All of those factors make them a candidate for this article. Add in the fact they avoid Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Missouri from the SEC East and play Alabama at home. They rank in my top units in seven of the eight position categories -- missing out only on special teams -- and clearly are a team capable of breaking through.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes have the best schedule of any Big Ten team. Last season, the Hawkeyes had to play Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, all of which drop off the schedule this in 2014. Their crossover games from the Big Ten East Division are Indiana and Maryland, and they get to host the top three contenders from the West in Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern.
They now have a veteran quarterback and 13 returning starters and rate in my top 25 on both the offensive and defensive lines. This team won just four games in 2012 and, despite a tough schedule last season, improved to eight wins. They now have a softer schedule, and many Iowa backers probably have them favored in all 12 games this season. I did not pick them to win the Big Ten West Division, but six of my nine sets of power ratings call for a double-digit-win season, and that puts them at this spot.
8. LSU Tigers
LSU once again had a ton of players leave early for the NFL and do not figure to be in the preseason top 10 for the second consecutive season, especially when you factor in that they draw Florida out of the East and Wisconsin on the nonconference schedule while playing Auburn and Texas A&M on the road and Alabama at home.
They were also the first team in SEC history to have a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher last season, and all four of them are gone. Still, this is one of the best programs in the country, and it has a lot of rising talent in addition to instant-impact, true-freshman running back Leonard Fournette. Let's face it, if you are making a list of contenders for the national title not ranked in the top 10 and the Tigers are not ranked in the top 10, you put them on your list.
9. Virginia Tech Hokies
Last season, the Hokies opened up 6-1 despite little help from the offense. They were outgained and beaten in total first downs in only one of their losses (the Sun Bowl), and that game was just 14-10 after three quarters. This season, I expect a much stronger offense with a deeper stable of running backs, good speed at wide receiver and, hopefully, better quarterback play. While Bud Foster has just five starters back on defense, he always crafts a top-notch unit and has my No. 14-rated defensive line and my No. 1 secondary in the country.
They do play both Ohio State and North Carolina on the road, but I do not have them an underdog in any other game. Just three years ago, they were No. 5 and playing in the ACC title game. If they get there this season, they will most likely face Florida State. An upset there would almost surely put them in the College Football Playoff.
10. Texas Longhorns
I was taking a lot of flak from all over the country last season when Texas, who I picked in my preseason top 5, started the season 1-2. However, in the regular-season finale, they were just 30 minutes away (tied at halftime against Baylor) from actually winning the Big 12 title outright. They did all of this with tons of injuries at linebacker and running back, while also getting inadequate quarterback play after David Ash was injured for the season.
I will put two stipulations on placing the Longhorns back on my surprise list: They must stay healthier and get solid quarterback play. If those happen, their defense -- which includes my No. 4-rated defensive line in the country, No. 2 set of linebackers and No. 9 defensive backs, along with defensive-minded head coach Charlie Strong -- can likely do the rest. While Strong came right out and said they were not national title contenders for 2014, this list is for those teams thought not to be title contenders that could get there if the chips fall right. Remember how ridiculous it would have sounded if someone called Auburn a title contender last summer after a 3-9 campaign in 2012?