Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Let's pretend you were in Shreveport, La., on Dec. 31, 1999, for the Independence Bowl. You just watched Oklahoma lose 27-25 to an average Mississippi team to finish the season 7-5. Despite the loss, it was a good season for the Sooners, especially after coming off five consecutive non-winning campaigns.
Your friend says to you, "I guarantee you Oklahoma will win the national championship next year." Your first thought might have been that your friend has "over-celebrated" New Year's Eve, because the next year the Sooners would have just 13 returning starters and face a schedule that included the three powerhouses of the Big 12 in Nebraska, Kansas State and Texas.
The Sooners entered the 2000 season as a 50-1 shot to win the national title and were ranked No. 19. However, when the dust cleared in January of 2001, OU stood atop the college football world, winning its first national title since 1985. You may think that Cinderella stories are a one-time thing, but in the BCS era, there have been major surprises at the top of the college football world almost every year. Ohio State in 2002, LSU in 2003 and Auburn in 2010 were all teams that started the season outside the AP top 10 but surprised nearly everyone and won it all. Even last year, Notre Dame started the season unranked but at the end of the regular reason ranked atop the polls.
Each of the past four years, during the offseason, I have come up with a projected top 10 of the preseason AP poll on my website. My expected 2013 preseason top 10 included Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Stanford, Texas A&M, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, South Carolina and Louisville. It is likely those teams will make up the top 10 this year, so I did not use any of them as my surprise teams.
The following are 10 programs that, while not as highly ranked, have the potential to shock the nation in 2013.
1. Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles were my preseason No. 1 team in 2012, and they were favored by at least 13 points in every game except against Florida, when they were "only" a seven-point favorite. They disappointed me by blowing a 16-0 halftime lead against NC State and then blew a 20-13 fourth-quarter lead against Florida. This season, they lose 11 players -- including five first- or second-round picks -- to the NFL. While a lot of talent departs, a lot returns as FSU ranks in my top 12 in the country in seven of eight positions. Two of the past four national champions have had first-year quarterbacks, and as long as Jameis Winston stays healthy, he could have a huge year.
Last year's schedule was tailor-made for a title considering FSU played its toughest opponents at home. However, in 2013, the Seminoles have to travel to both Clemson and Florida. They do have a bye before they play the Tigers -- and play lowly Idaho before the Gators -- so this very talented team is capable of running the table. I believe they have the best shot of any preseason non-top 10 team of winning the national title.
2. Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are actually No. 2 in my talent ratings (behind Alabama) this year, but will not be ranked in the top 10. They are deep at quarterback with David Ash, Case McCoy and spring sensation Tyrone Swoopes. They have not one but two running backs whom I ranked No. 1 coming out of high school, and they have my top-rated offensive line in the country. In 2011, Texas had the best defense in the conference, and, after injuries and poor tackling hurt it last year, should have the best defense in the Big 12 in 2013.
I know I had Texas as my No. 1 surprise team last year, but remember that I have not picked the Longhorns to be No. 1 in their division or conference since 2009 -- and usually have them rated lower than most. They do have to play BYU, Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor on the road, but with 19 returning starters, coach Mack Brown can no longer call the Longhorns a young team. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country.
3. USC Trojans
Last year, the Trojans were the preseason No. 1 team in the country. But not only did they not win the title, they were also the first preseason No. 1 team to finish unranked. While I did not have them playing in the championship game last year, they disappointed a lot of folks -- and their bandwagon, which was overcrowded in August 2012, is now almost empty.
This year, they lose quarterback Matt Barkley, and I only project them as No. 25 in the preseason AP poll. USC actually ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 in my ratings in six out of nine categories, which says a lot about the Trojans' talent when the conference features perennial top 10 teams in Oregon and Stanford. USC does have to play both Arizona State and Notre Dame on the road, but it gets Stanford and UCLA at home while avoiding Oregon. Only one of my nine sets of power ratings calls for the Trojans to go unbeaten, but I think this year's squad is more talented and deeper than the 2012 preseason No. 1 squad. The Trojans are way under the radar heading into the 2013 season.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Just two short years ago, the Cowboys were the No. 3 team in the country at the end of the season, just missing out on playing in the BCS National Championship. After going just 8-5 in 2012, they will not be in the top 10 this year, but rank No. 10 in my Power Poll. Oklahoma State has a 2013 schedule that could allow it to go unbeaten at the end of the season.
The Cowboys' true road games are mostly winnable matchups against the likes of Texas-San Antonio, West Virginia, Iowa State and Texas Tech, with their toughest test coming at Texas (my No. 2 surprise team) on Nov. 16. They get the other Big 12 contenders (besides Texas) in Kansas State, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma at home, where they are 29-6 over the past five years. Two of my nine sets of power ratings have them going undefeated, and clearly an unbeaten Big 12 team would have a great shot at playing for the national title.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils
Second-year head coaches have had great success in the BCS era. In 2000, Bob Stoops shockingly won the title after a five-loss season. Two years later, under head coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State was a surprise national title winner after a five-loss season in his first year. Urban Meyer, in his second year at Florida, took home a national title in 2006, and Gene Chizik (in his second year) won the title in 2010 after going 8-5 his first year at Auburn.
I will admit I really had the Sun Devils about eighth or ninth on my list, but they were the highest rated of the teams with a second-year head coach in Todd Graham (coming off an 8-5 season), and I wanted to keep with tradition. They do have my No. 4 set of running backs in the country as well as my No. 4 defensive line. While the Sun Devils have to play UCLA and Stanford on the road -- and Notre Dame at a neutral site -- they get USC and Wisconsin at home and could end up with only their third double-digit-win season in the past 25 years.
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers
I am usually partial to teams that have excellent defenses, but Nebraska's defense is far from overwhelming. Last year, it allowed 27.6 points per game and will have only four starters back after losing eight of its top 10 tacklers. Still, Nebraska has top talent on that side of the ball, and allowed only 361 yards per game last year despite giving up 653 to UCLA, 498 to Ohio State, 640 to Wisconsin and 589 to Georgia (allowed only 267 yards per game in the other 10 contests).
The Cornhuskers have quarterback Taylor Martinez and eight starters back from an offensive unit that averaged 34.8 points per game in 2012. They also have arguably the best schedule in the Big Ten, as they avoid Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders Division and get Michigan State and Northwestern at home along with six other home games. The two toughest road games are against Michigan and Penn State, two teams that are below them in my rankings.
7. Clemson Tigers
I projected Clemson to be just outside of the preseason AP top 10 in January, but with Notre Dame's quarterback issues, the Tigers now could sneak in. Clemson QB Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins are the marquee names, though the Tigers have six groups that make my top individual units, including the defensive line, linebacker corps and defensive backs. They should greatly improve upon last year's 396 yards per game allowed.
Clemson's schedule has some nice situational edges. They open with Georgia, and while that is Clemson's most important game in the first three weeks, Georgia has a more important game on deck against South Carolina the following week. The Tigers get a bye before facing the Georgia Tech option offense and face Florida State at home. That could mean their trip to rival South Carolina could be for an unbeaten season if the chips fall right. While they do have three potential top-10 teams on the schedule, just two years ago they beat undefeated defending national champion Auburn, No. 11 Florida State and then went on the road and beat No. 11 Virginia Tech in three straight weeks, so they are capable.
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Last year, the Sooners suspended some wide receivers, lost numerous offensive linemen to injury and did not live up to my expectations. They were, however, plus-106 yards per game in Big 12 play, which was by far the best. They also had a 274-248 yard edge at halftime of their bowl game against Texas A&M before a second-half meltdown. I rate their offense No. 5 in the country despite a new quarterback. Plus, OU's defense has top-20 potential.
The Sooners are one of just eight teams that rank in my top individual units in all eight categories, and despite playing Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State on the road in Big 12 play, are capable of running the table. Keep in mind the last time the Sooners were ranked outside the preseason AP top 10 was 2000, their last national title season.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
Like Nebraska, the Badgers have a schedule. They avoid the Cornhuskers, Michigan and Michigan State out of the Legends Division. They do have a new head coach -- and must play both Ohio State and Arizona State on the road -- but could be favored in 10 or 11 games this year. If they were to upset the Buckeyes on Sept. 28, they would have a great shot at their fourth straight Big Ten title.
Wisconsin also has a top-25 defense and a power rush attack led by the one-two punch of Melvin Gordon and James White. Last year, the Badgers were plus-115 yards per game in the Big Ten, and had four net close losses, meaning they were just a handful of plays from being 12-2 rather than 8-6. They will not even be in the top 20 of the AP poll at the start of the year, but have a great shot at reaching double-digit wins for the fourth time in five years.
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies struggled on offense last year, as they had just three starters back, including one on the offensive line who went down to injury midyear. This season, they have my No. 8 defense and QB Logan Thomas has a stronger supporting cast to work with. They could be knocked out of the title picture in the opening week when they face Alabama. However, no one thought Notre Dame was a national title contender last year because it had to play two preseason top five teams, including USC and Oklahoma (both on the road).
In coach Frank Beamer's four ACC titles in eight years, the Hokies have pulled five upsets and beaten four top 12 teams. They also have to face Miami (FL) on the road. I still expect them to be in the ACC title game.