In each of the past four years, during the offseason, I have come up with a projected top 10 of the preseason AP poll on my website. I do this by taking several different factors into account:
• Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First, they look at the number of returning starters the team has coming back, particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting quarterback and a combination of its running backs and wide receivers, for example, is often more highly regarded than a team that loses its starting quarterback but returns its entire offensive line.
Similarly, a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers is usually more highly regarded than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill-position players on offense.
• Another factor that is weighed heavily is the performance of the team in its bowl game, which is undoubtedly the lasting image voters carry with them of that team during the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win is usually more highly regarded than a team that is coming off a bowl loss, regardless of what its schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these factors -- and a few others, such as strength of schedule -- I project the preseason AP top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season -- which in most cases is six months in advance of the poll's release. Now, as you all know, a lot can happen between January and August, including injuries, suspensions and transfers, but over the past four years, I have been very successful using this method, correctly projecting 37 of 40 teams, including all 10 teams last year.
Before I go into the rankings, it is important to make the point that this is not my preseason top 10 for next season, but rather what I am projecting the AP top 10 will look like to start the season. If you're familiar with my college football preview magazine, you will know that every year I tend to go out on a limb for a couple of teams in my top 10, and this year will be no different.
Now let's take a look at this year's projected preseason AP top 10 teams, ranked in order.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
How do you top becoming just the second school since World War II to win three national titles in four years? You try to become the first program to win four in five.
The Crimson Tide look poised to do so in 2013. It starts with the return of quarterback AJ McCarron, who has played brilliantly in each of the past two BCS National Championship games. He is surrounded by some of the best skill-position players in the country in true sophomores running back T.J. Yeldon and wide receiver Amari Cooper. The only question on offense is how the Tide will replace center Barrett Jones, guard Chance Warmack and tackle D.J. Fluker on the offensive line.
The defense also loses nose guard Jesse Williams, cornerback Dee Milliner and safety Robert Lester, but linebacker C.J. Mosley shockingly announced his return, as the Tide just continue to reload on that side of the ball. They have led the nation in total and scoring defense each of the past two seasons.
The schedule is also manageable, with an opener against Virginia Tech in Atlanta followed by a bye week that leads into Bama's revenge game against Texas A&M at Kyle Field. The rest of the schedule is a walk in the park, with key games against Ole Miss, Arkansas and Tennessee all at home, and two weeks to prepare for a home game against LSU. Add it all up and the Tide look just as strong, if not stronger, than last year's team, and AP voters will reward them.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Despite the NCAA probation, Urban Meyer's first season in Columbus was a smashing success, finishing a perfect 12-0 and No. 3 in the final AP poll, and it looks like the Buckeyes will continue to ride that momentum into 2013.
For starters, voters will see the Buckeyes welcome back quarterback Braxton Miller, who figures to be one of the Heisman favorites after a season in which he had 3,310 yards of total offense. He also figures to be improved in the passing game.
Miller will have plenty of talent surrounding him, as No. 2 rusher Carlos Hyde and top two receivers Corey Brown and Devin Smith all return along with key offensive linemen Andrew Norwell and Jack Mewhort. The Buckeyes do have to replace their entire starting defensive line, but Meyer has done a great job of recruiting at that position in his short tenure. Meanwhile, the defense's other stars in linebacker Ryan Shazier and cornerback Bradley Roby should help carry the load as the young linemen mature.
The schedule clearly sets up for success, as the nonconference features Buffalo, San Diego State, California and Florida A&M, while in conference play the Bucks avoid both Nebraska and Michigan State and get to host Wisconsin and Penn State. The two toughest hurdles look to be road trips at Northwestern and at Michigan.
3. Stanford Cardinal
This might surprise people, but consider how voters carry over momenturm. After an overtime loss at Notre Dame -- a controversial one -- the Cardinal won eight straight games to close the season, highlighted by their road win at Oregon in November and a 20-14 triumph over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. This could be the year the Cardinal take another step and not just make their fourth straight BCS bowl, but finally play for the national title, as they welcome back 15 starters, including quarterback Kevin Hogan, who was the key to Stanford's win streak down the stretch.
The defense should be one of the best in the country as Trent Murphy, Ben Gardner and Shayne Skov all announced they would be returning for their senior seasons. The schedule has the Cardinal playing most of their key games at home, including games against Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Notre Dame, while Oregon State and USC are their toughest road games. The Cardinal have clearly survived the losses of head coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Andrew Luck in recent seasons, and it looks like David Shaw has this program here to stay among the nation's elite.
4. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks would have probably been a slam dunk for the No. 2 spot had head coach Chip Kelly decide to stay in Eugene. Voters will drop them slightly based on this uncertainty, but even with his departure, the Ducks still look like one of the favorites in 2013, as they return quarterback Marcus Mariota, who had an incredible 32-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio in his first season as a starter. While the Ducks will clearly miss running back Kenjon Barner, who ran for 1,767 yards, they do return the explosive De'Anthony Thomas along with seven other starters from the top-scoring offense in the NCAA.
On defense, they lose their top two tacklers in linebackers Michael Clay and Kiko Alonso, but despite another head-coaching change, defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti will continue to lead the Ducks on that side of the ball. The schedule is manageable, as Oregon avoids USC and Arizona State and gets UCLA at home from the Pac-12 South. For the fourth year in a row, it looks like the Oregon-Stanford game (Nov. 7 in Palo Alto) will be for the Pac-12 North title, and a win there could have the Ducks playing for it all in 2013.
5. Texas A&M Aggies
There might not have been a team in the country that ended its season on a hotter run than Texas A&M, which after its upset win at No. 1 Alabama in November saw its quarterback, Johnny Manziel, become the first freshman to take home the Heisman Trophy. The Aggies followed up that celebration by destroying Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl to finish No. 5 in the final AP poll.
In 2013, the Aggies bring back Manziel, who accounted for an SEC-record 5,116 yards of total offense. No. 2 rusher Ben Malena along with leading receiver Mike Evans. Voters will note that offensive tackle Luke Joeckel and defensive end Damontre Moore announced their early departures to the draft, but tackle Jake Matthews surprisingly announced his return. A quick look at the schedule shows the Aggies avoiding Georgia, Florida and South Carolina from the SEC East, while they also get the defending champs at home in Week 3.
6. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a clear example of a team that fits my projected AP top 10 criteria. First, they welcome back quarterback Aaron Murray, who announced his return for his fourth year as the starter after leading the Bulldogs to a school-record 529 points in 2012. Georgia also returns its dynamic running back duo of Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley, along with several key receivers. The Bulldogs capped off their 11-2 season with a 45-31 win over Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl after taking Alabama to the wire in the SEC championship game.
While the defense will have to be rebuilt, an argument could be made that Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country. That offense will need to be effective early, with matchups against Clemson, South Carolina and LSU all coming in the Bulldogs' first four games.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Losing 42-14 in the BCS national championship to Alabama probably knocked the Irish out of contention for the 2013 preseason top five, but they still will return 14 starters, including quarterback Everett Golson, who figures to continue to make significant progress in his second year as a starter.
While they lose their star on offense in tight end Tyler Eifert and defense in linebacker Manti Te'o, the Irish look well stocked on both sides of the line of scrimmage, as offensive tackle Zack Martin and nose guard Louis Nix both opted to return. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt, who recorded 12 sacks a year ago, will also be back.
As it is most years for Notre Dame, the schedule is difficult, with home games against Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC and road games at Michigan and Stanford. However, the Irish beat all five of those teams last season, and many felt they were a year ahead of schedule in finishing 12-1.
8. Florida Gators
While the Gators did finish the season with a disappointing loss to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl, voters will find it hard to ignore their terrific regular season, which featured three wins over teams that finished in the final AP top 15. The offense figures to be much improved with Jeff Driskel back at quarterback. While the defense loses arguably its best player at each level, the good news is that it looks like coach Will Muschamp will be bringing in one of the nation's best recruiting classes to fill the void, and don't forget that defensive end Ronald Powell will be back after missing all of last season with an ACL injury.
The schedule is brutal, with nonconference games against Miami and Florida State and road trips to South Carolina and LSU in SEC play.
9. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks are coming off back-to-back 11-2 seasons, finishing in the AP top 10 each season despite losing star running back Marcus Lattimore to injury midway through both. The future continues to look bright for the Gamecocks, as they return most of their key players, including quarterbacks Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson, along with their leading receiver in Bruce Ellington.
On defense, star defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, who is arguably the best player in the country regardless of position, is back. The nonconference schedule is daunting, but both North Carolina and Clemson have to travel to Columbia, just as the Gators do in conference play. The toughest road test is at Georgia on Sept. 7, and the Gamecocks do avoid Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU from the SEC West.
10. Louisville Cardinals
Despite playing in a non-power conference, the Cardinals clearly fit the mold of a preseason AP top-10 team. First, they return a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who threw for 3,718 yards, 27 touchdowns and just eight interceptions as a sophomore last season. In addition to Bridgewater, the Cardinals also return their top two rushers and top four receivers from a year ago, and their only significant loss on defense was cornerback Adrian Bushell.
Second, they are coming off an impressive 33-23 Sugar Bowl win over SEC power Florida, which rocketed them up to No. 13 in the final AP poll. Finally, they have arguably the easiest schedule of all the 2013 contenders, as their nonconference slate includes Ohio, Eastern Kentucky, Florida International and Kentucky, and they play a conference schedule against a Big East that is basically a glorified Conference USA at this point. Add it all up and the Cardinals should be favored to win all of their games in 2013.
There you have it -- my projections for the AP preseason top 10. If you are wondering which teams just missed the cut, make sure you check out my daily blog on PhilSteele.com, where I break down the past four years of all my projections, as well as give you my No. 11, No. 12, No. 13 and No. 14 projected AP poll teams for this season, all of which could potentially sneak into the 2013 preseason top 10.