Phil Steele Week
Get access to Phil Steele's football analysis and find his 2014 preview magazine at PhilSteele.com.
• Projecting Top 25 teams
• Preseason Top 5: FSU No. 1
• Top QBs | RBs
• Top 10 Heisman candidates
• Top 10 surprise teams for 2014
• Most improved teams for 2014
• Ranking every conference in CFB
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Making my most improved list has generally been a blessing for teams, as they usually make big turnarounds. In 1999, the No. 1 most improved team in my preseason rankings was Hawaii, and they had the largest turnaround in NCAA history, going from a winless season in 1998 (0-12) to 9-4 and a bowl victory one year later.
More recently, Houston was my No. 1 most improved team in 2011 and had the largest turnaround in the country, going from 5-7 to 13-1 and just missing out on a BCS bowl. In 2012, my No. 1 most improved team was UC, and it went from five wins to 10 wins. My No. 2 most improved team that year was Ohio State, which had the largest jump in record for any team in the FBS that season, going from 6-7 to a perfect 12-0. Last year, both Auburn and Missouri made my most improved list and, despite combining for a total of eight wins in 2012, each team won 12 games last year and played each other in the SEC Championship game.
Overall in the past six years, I have listed 111 teams on my most improved teams list that did not have a winning season the previous year. Of those 111 teams, almost all improved their record the next year, but even more impressively, 76 of the 111 teams were bowl-eligible the following year.
Looking for some major turnaround teams this year that will surprise? Here is my much-anticipated, most-improved-teams list:
1. TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs' two seasons in the Big 12 have been a little disappointing, as they are 11-14 overall and 6-12 in Big 12 play. They might have been a much stronger team last year if not for losing two linebackers in the offseason, as well as 2012 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields after one game because of injury. While this team was just 4-8 last year, seven of the Frogs' losses saw a chance for them to win in the fourth quarter or overtime.
This year, they have 16 returning starters, get Fields back, plus add in Texas A&M transfer QB Matt Joeckel. The addition of Joeckel might allow them to move Trevone Boykin to wide receiver or running back, where he is a threat to score every play. With my No. 5 defensive line, No. 15 linebackers and No. 20 defensive backs, they have my No. 11 overall defense. They do play both Baylor and Texas on the road but beat both of them on the road in 2012. If you are looking for a team that has could have a turnaround similar to what Auburn or Missouri had last year, the Horned Frogs are that team.
2. Florida Gators
Just two years ago the Gators came within a Notre Dame loss to USC of actually getting to the BCS title game. Last year, however, was their worst season in over 30 years, as they finished just 4-8, failing to make a bowl for the first time since 1990. However, it was a year that saw them ravaged by injuries on both offense and defense, as they lost 51 starts to injury, the third-most of any team in the country.
This year, they have 14 returning starters and are even more experienced when you consider several young players saw extensive action due to injuries last year. They have my No. 4-rated defense in college football and should have a much-improved offense with quarterback Jeff Driskel fitting well with new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper's system. I would have them above TCU, but they will most likely be a double-digit underdog against both Alabama and Florida State.
3. Northwestern Wildcats
Last year, Northwestern was 4-0 when it hosted No. 4 Ohio State with "College GameDay" on campus and came up just short. They had nothing left in the tank against a Wisconsin team off a bye the next week. They lost by three points to Minnesota, fell in overtime to Iowa, gave up a Hail Mary touchdown pass to Nebraska and Michigan got a fortunate field goal on the last play to force overtime and beat them. They were literally inches away from a 10-2 record but finished just 5-7.
This year, they return 17 starters and get the huge addition of running back Venric Mark who was an All-American in 2012 but missed most of last year. Ohio State and Michigan State drop off the schedule, and this is the first time since the start of my magazine (1995) that they have at least six position groups rank in my top units in the FBS. I have them as an underdog in only two games, and both of those are by only three to seven points. Keep in mind that two years ago, they were just 5:03 away from being unbeaten in their 10-3 season.
4. Air Force Falcons
Troy Calhoun led the Falcons to bowl appearances in each of his first six seasons, but last year they lost 10 games and went winless in conference play for the first time in the program's 57-year history. Every summer, I try to talk to as many head coaches as possible, and I have to admit, when I got off the phone with coach Calhoun, I knew that the Falcons might be in store for a long season, as he characterized them as a young, inexperienced, depth-shy team.
This year, they are much more experienced, returning 16 starters including 17 of their top 19 tacklers on defense. They lose only 15 lettermen and are back to having a solid group of upperclassmen. They play my No. 102 schedule in terms of difficulty, and I have them as a clear underdog in only three games.
5. Nevada Wolf Pack
Last year was head coach Brian Polian's first season, and he had just 11 returning starters with whom to work. After compiling a 24-7 mark in their past four years playing in the WAC, the Wolf Pack are only 7-9 the past two years in the Mountain West, and their four overall wins last year were their fewest since 2001.
This year, Nevada welcomes back 17 returning starters including 10 on defense. On offense, dual-threat quarterback Cody Fajardo -- who is in his fourth year as the starter -- returns along with their top two running backs. The schedule is a bit more forgiving than last year; after playing UCLA and Florida State in nonconference action a year ago, I have them either favored or in a toss-up game in eight of their 12 games.
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Skip Holtz did not inherit a good situation last year, as the Bulldogs returned just seven starters and were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country. They finished just 4-8 after posting a 17-8 combined record the prior two seasons. This year, they have 13 returning starters, and my main set of power ratings actually call for them to win the C-USA West division, as they have the second-most talented team in C-USA besides Marshall.
7. Memphis Tigers
Two factors that often get overlooked in the preseason when forecasting a team's upcoming season are defense and strength of schedule. Memphis gets a check mark in both of these categories, as it has my No. 1-rated defensive line in the American Athletic Conference, led by first-team All-American Conference Martin Ifedi, who had 11.5 sacks last year. The Tigers also avoid both defending American champ UCF and conference newcomer East Carolina, while returning 17 starters. They have not been to a bowl game since 2008, but I will call for them to make a bowl this year.
8. Tennessee Volunteers
In the past three years, the Volunteers are 4-20 in SEC play. This year's squad has much more experience at the skill positions than last year but remarkably has zero returning starters on the offensive and defensive lines. While they play my No. 2 toughest schedule in the country, those inexperienced lines will have more experience come November, when, if they sweep the likes of Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt in their final three games, they will be bowling for the first time since 2010.
9. N.C. State Wolfpack
Much like Brian Polian and Skip Holtz, Dave Doeren did not inherit a good situation last year, as the Wolfpack returned just 10 starters and subsequently went 0-8 in ACC play for the first time in 55 years. At the start of the season, he said the only two players they could not afford to lose were their quarterback and left tackle; they lost both. This year, the Wolfpack return 14 starters, bring in my No. 34 recruiting class and, provided that quarterback Jacoby Brissett stays healthy, could be back in a bowl game.
10. Army Black Knights
The Black Knights have now had 16 losing seasons in the past 17 years. However, new head coach Jeff Monken steps into a tremendous situation, as they return 16 starters, their most since 2004. Monken also has a fresh attitude and had great success at Georgia Southern. They take on my No. 103 schedule in terms of difficulty and have my No. 9 set of RBs in the entire country, with a combined 6,002 career rush yards returning. Amazingly, five of my nine sets of power ratings call for them to win at least six games this year.