The past five offseasons, I have come up with a projected top 10 of the preseason AP poll on my website. I do this by taking several different factors into account:
• Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First, they look at the number of starters the team has coming back, particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting quarterback and a combination of its running backs and wide receivers, for example, is often more highly regarded than a team that loses its starting quarterback but returns its entire offensive line.
Similarly, a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers is usually more highly regarded than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill-position players on offense.
• Another factor that is weighed heavily is the performance of the team in its bowl game, which is undoubtedly the lasting image voters carry with them of that team during the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win is usually more highly regarded than a team coming off a bowl loss, regardless of what its schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these factors -- and a few others, such as strength of schedule -- I project the preseason AP top 10 every year, usually six months in advance of the poll's release. Now, as you all know, a lot can happen between February and August, including injuries, suspensions and transfers, but over the past five years, I have been very successful using this method, correctly projecting 46 of 50 teams, including nine of 10 teams last year, which would have been a perfect 10 for 10 if Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson hadn't been suspended in late May.
Before I get to the rankings, it is important to make the point that this is not my preseason top 10 for 2014, but rather what I am projecting the AP top 10 will look like to start the season. If you're familiar with my college football preview magazine, you will know that every year I tend to go out on a limb for a couple of teams in my top 10, and this year will be no different.
Now let's take a look at this year's projected preseason AP top 10, ranked in order.
1. Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles were my No. 1 surprise team a year ago, and they would go on to end the SEC's reign of seven straight national championships by winning their first BCS title since 1999. They are poised to stay at the top in 2014 and it starts with the return of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston, who directed an offense that set the NCAA record for most points scored in a season (723). Despite the early departures of running backs Devonta Freeman, James Wilder Jr. and wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, the Noles return leading receiver Rashad Greene and Karlos Williams, perhaps their most talented running back. The offensive line also will be one of the best in the country as it returns four starters and a total of 109 career starts.
On the defensive side, the Noles lose five of their top six tackles (including arguably their best player, defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan), linebacker Telvin Smith and cornerback/safety Lamarcus Joyner. However, they return several talented players, led by defensive end Mario Edwards Jr., and several inexperienced players received extended playing time in 2013 as a result of the huge early leads FSU often built.
The schedule will be more difficult than last year, starting with the opener against Oklahoma State in Arlington, Texas. However, Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida have to travel to Doak Campbell Stadium, and the Noles have a bye prior to the road trip to Louisville. They also have the momentum in the Miami matchup, having beaten the rival Hurricanes four consecutive times on the road. Add it all up, and FSU is clearly the favorite heading into the first year of the College Football Playoff.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
One second is possibly all that separated the Crimson Tide from another appearance in the BCS national title game in January, but the 109-yard return by Auburn's Chris Davis and a shocking 45-31 upset at the hands of Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl saw the Tide lose back-to-back games for the first time since 2008. However, the Crimson Tide are well-positioned to return to the top in 2014, and it starts with coach Nick Saban's unrivaled recruiting. Saban has brought in the top class over the past seven years and looks primed to bring in another crop of talented freshman this year (Bama's 2014 class is currently ranked No. 1).
The biggest questions will naturally be finding a replacement for three-year starting quarterback A.J. McCarron and making the needed adjustments under new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The leading QB replacements are Cooper Bateman, incoming freshman David Cornwell and Florida State transfer Jacob Coker. Whoever wins the job will be surrounded by some of the best skill-position talent in the country, led by running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Christion Jones.
Though the defense will have to replace linebacker C.J. Mosley and weather the early departures of four others, it still features plenty of talent, including safety Landon Collins and linebacker Trey DePriest. The schedule features tough road trips to Ole Miss and LSU; however, the Tide get the all-important revenge game against Auburn at home in the regular-season finale.
3. Oregon Ducks
In Mark Helfrich's first year as head coach, the Ducks failed to make a BCS bowl for the first time in five years. But they still managed their sixth straight season of double-digit wins. This year, they return nine starters on offense, led by quarterback Marcus Mariota, who accounted for 40 touchdowns in 2013. The Ducks also return running backs Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner, who combined for 1,749 rushing yards.
The biggest question might be how the Ducks adjust to the retirement of longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti. However, they return leading tackler linebacker Derrick Malone and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who could be the best cornerback in the country. The schedule features a huge nonconference matchup against Michigan State, but that comes in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks are 33-2 the past five years. They travel to UCLA, but get Stanford at home and avoid both Arizona State and USC from the Pac-12 South.
4. Auburn Tigers
In coach Gus Malzahn's first year, the Tigers had one of the more memorable runs in college football history, going from a 3-9 record the year before to one possession away from winning the national championship. This year, the Tigers will want to prove that last year was not a fluke -- and they are well-positioned to continue their success. Auburn returns 14 starters, including eight on offense, led by quarterback Nick Marshall, who becomes the first two-year starting quarterback that Malzahn has had at the college level (as coordinator or head coach). The Tigers have to replace running back Tre Mason, but they return four of their top five rushers and their top four receivers, while the defense welcomes back five of its top eight tacklers.
The biggest question might be trying to navigate a tough schedule, as the Tigers travel to Kansas State in nonconference action. They pull both Georgia and South Carolina from the SEC East. And while they get LSU and Texas A&M at home, they have to visit Tuscaloosa and take on the revenge-seeking Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
After back-to-back upset wins over Oklahoma State and Alabama to close the 2013 season, expectations for the Sooners have skyrocketed as Bob Stoops' "Big Game" moniker has returned. The Sooners' offense, which averaged 42 points per game in the last four contests, will benefit from the return of quarterback Trevor Knight, who closed the season with a sensational Sugar Bowl performance (348 yards and four touchdowns). The defense made significant strides last year, and with the return of nine starters, the Sooners could be in store for their best season statistically on defense since 2009.
The schedule is very manageable, as a home game against Tennessee highlights the Sooners' nonconference slate. In Big 12 play, they get Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State at home, while the game against Texas comes at a neutral site.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
After 24 consecutive wins to start the Urban Meyer era, the Buckeyes lost back-to-back games to close the 2013 season. However, in 2014, they look poised to bounce back as quarterback Braxton Miller returns for his fourth year as the starting quarterback. They lose running back Carlos Hyde and leading receiver Philly Brown, but Meyer has upgraded the speed at the skill positions in the last couple of recruiting classes.
The defense loses two headliners -- linebacker Ryan Shazier and cornerback Bradley Roby -- but the defensive line returns all four starters (including Noah Spence and Joey Bosa) and should be among the best in the country. The schedule again is manageable, with both Virginia Tech and Cincinnati visiting Ohio Stadium in nonconference play. The Buckeyes also avoid both Wisconsin and Nebraska from the Big Ten West while getting Michigan at home. Their toughest test will be a road trip to East Lansing on Nov. 8 against defending Big Ten champ Michigan State.
7. UCLA Bruins
Jim Mora has done an outstanding job in Westwood, leading the Bruins to their most wins in back-to-back seasons since 1997 and '98. In 2014, they could take another step toward joining the nation's elite as they return 16 starters, including quarterback Brett Hundley, who passed up a chance at being a first-round draft pick. The Bruins also return their top four rushers and five of their top six receivers. On defense, they lose All-American linebacker Anthony Barr but return leading tackler Eric Kendricks. Freshman All-American Myles Jack, who played both ways last year, is back, and the entire secondary returns intact.
The Bruins' schedule is tough as they face Texas in Arlington on Sept. 13 and travel to Arizona State to play a Thursday game on Sept. 25. They get Oregon, USC and Stanford at home; the last two come in back-to-back weeks to close the regular season.
8. Michigan State Spartans
Last season, the Spartans capped off one of their best campaigns in school history with a Rose Bowl win over Stanford, and they clearly are one of the favorites in the expanded Big Ten heading into 2014. They return quarterback Connor Cook, who improved considerably last season, as evidenced by his back-to-back 300-yard passing performances against Ohio State and Stanford. Running back Jeremy Langford also returns, along with three of the top four receivers. Langford had eight straight 100-yard games prior to the Rose Bowl.
The defense returns only four starters and must replace three All-Americans: linebackers Max Bullough, Denicos Allen and cornerback Darqueze Dennard. The Spartans return defensive end Shilique Calhoun and, most importantly, defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, who passed on the Connecticut job. On the 2014 schedule, Notre Dame (the only team to beat MSU last year) is replaced by a tough nonconference road trip to Oregon. However, in Big Ten play the Spartans get Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska at home.
9. Baylor Bears
After one of the best seasons in school history, which included a Big 12 title, Art Briles' program looks to continue its climb toward consistent finishes in the top 10-to-15. In 2014, the Bears return just nine starters, but one of them is quarterback Bryce Petty, who threw for 4,200 yards and accounted for 46 touchdowns. He has some dynamic skill players surrounding him, including leading receiver Antwan Goodley, who averaged nearly 19 yards per catch.
The defense has suffered heavy losses, including linebacker Eddie Lackey and safety Ahmad Dixon. However, those losses might not be that significant when you consider the Bears have averaged nine wins per year the last four years despite their defense allowing an average of 32 points per game. The Bears have to play Oklahoma but get both Oklahoma State and Kansas State at home. Plus, their nonconference slate is manageable.
10. South Carolina Gamecocks
Future Hall of Fame coach Steve Spurrier has done a masterful job in Columbia leading the Gamecocks to three straight 11-win seasons and top-10 finishes. In 2014, they are poised to remain near the top of the SEC as they welcome back 14 starters, including eight on offense. While they will certainly miss quarterback Connor Shaw, his replacement, Dylan Thompson, has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns filling in the past couple of years. The Gamecocks also return 1,000-yard rusher Mike Davis.
The defense loses two All-Americans on the defensive line, Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles, but the D will have much more experience in the back seven. The Gamecocks open the season on Thursday, Aug. 28, with a marquee home game against Texas A&M, and also host SEC East rivals Georgia and Missouri in September. They have to travel to Auburn in October and to Florida and Clemson in November. However, the Gamecocks have won three of their past four meetings against the Gators and have won five straight over the Tigers.
There you have it -- my projections for the AP preseason top 10. If you are wondering which teams just missed the cut, make sure you check out my daily blog on PhilSteele.com later this week, when I'll break down my projections from the last four years and give you my No. 11, No. 12, No. 13 and No. 14 projected AP poll teams for this season, all of which could potentially sneak into the 2014 preseason top 10.