Saturday
No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats (-24.5, 62) at Tulane Green Wave, Noon ET on ESPN2
Cincinnati has covered four of the last five meetings following a 0-5 ATS run from the 1978 FBS/FCS split to 2000.
Cincinnati is 11-6 ATS since the start of last season.
Cincinnati's average spread this season is -20.7, by far its largest average spread as a favorite in a single season since the 1978 FBS/FCS split (previous largest was -12.9 in 2020). It's the fifth-largest average spread in FBS this season, trailing Coastal Carolina (-24.0), Oklahoma (-23.9), Ohio State (-22.6) and Alabama (-22.1).
The under is 17-7 in Cincinnati road games under Luke Fickell (since 2017).
Tulane has failed to cover five straight games after starting the season 2-0 ATS.
Tulane is 3-7 ATS against ranked opponents under Willie Fritz (since 2016). The over is 7-3 in those games.
Tulane has failed to cover 11 of its last 15 games against AP top-10 teams.
Tulane is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last five seasons.
No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 50.5) at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans, Noon ET
Michigan is 6-1 ATS this season, trailing only Syracuse (7-1 ATS) and UTSA (7-1 ATS) for the best cover percentage in FBS. The Wolverines have been favored in six of their seven games.
Michigan has covered three straight conference games following an 0-6 ATS run dating to 2020.
The over is 18-11 in Michigan road games under Jim Harbaugh (since 2015), including 8-2 since 2019 and five straight since the start of last season.
Michigan State is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings (since 2006), the best cover percentage of any FBS team against Michigan over that span (min. five games). That includes 4-2 ATS against Michigan under Harbaugh.
Michigan State has failed to cover seven straight games against AP top-10 teams, the longest active streak in FBS. It's also tied for the third-longest such streak since 2000, trailing only Texas (9 straight from 2011-15) and Penn State (10 straight from 2009-16). The Spartans are 0-2 ATS against AP top-10 opponents under Melvin Tucker (since 2020).
The under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings.
The over is 19-8 in Michigan games under Harbaugh (since 2015) when playing a ranked opponent.
Since 2000 (as far back as we have over/under data), Michigan and Michigan State have met 6 times when both are ranked. The under is 5-1 in those games.
No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers (-3, 36.5), Noon ET on ESPN
Iowa is the third AP top-10 team this season to be an underdog against an unranked opponent. That's tied for the most such instances in a single season since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. 2004 and 2000 also had three such games.
AP top-10 underdogs are 20-12 ATS against unranked opponents since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, including 15-6 ATS since 2000 and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 such games.
Iowa has covered five straight as an underdog dating to 2019 and is 5-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season.
Iowa is 5-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since the start of last season.
Iowa has covered eight straight games off more than 6 days rest. The over is also 8-0 in those games. The Hawkeyes last game was a 24-7 loss against Purdue on October 16.
Wisconsin is 4-11 ATS against ranked opponents since 2018. One of those covers came last week against No. 25 Purdue, snapping the Badgers' streak of seven straight ATS losses against ranked teams.
Wisconsin would be the fifth instance of an unranked team laying points against a ranked opponent in consecutive games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. Wisconsin won 30-13 as a 3.5-point favorite against No. 25 Purdue last week. Overall, the unranked team is 4-1 ATS in the first game and 0-4 ATS in the second game (pending Wisconsin/Iowa result). Note: This includes bowl games (2009 Oklahoma vs 19 Stanford) and considers AP ranks only.
This would be the lowest total in any game this season and the lowest in any game since last year's Army-Navy game (36). In the last 15 seasons, totals in the 30s have gone under 60% of the time (84-56).
Texas Longhorns at No. 16 Baylor Bears (-3, 61), Noon ET on ABC
Texas is 16-8-1 ATS in its last 25 games as an underdog, but only one of those came under Steve Sarkisian (0-1 ATS).
Steve Sarkisian is 4-10 ATS in his career when facing an AP-ranked team on the road (1-3 ATS with USC, 3-7 ATS with Washington).
Baylor has failed to cover six straight games following a bye. The Bears last played on October 16, a 38-24 win against No. 19 BYU.
Baylor is 5-2 ATS this season after finishing 3-6 ATS in Dave Aranda's first season at the helm in 2020.
Eight straight meetings have gone under the total dating to 2013.
Miami Hurricanes at No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers (-9, 61), Noon ET
This will be the 25th meeting since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. Pittsburgh was favored just twice in the previous 24 and by no more than seven points (lost both outright).
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS this season (all as a favorite), tied for the third-best cover percentage in FBS. Only Syracuse (7-1 ATS) and UTSA (7-1 ATS) have been better. The Panthers are covering by 11.9 PPG this season, tied with Georgia for tops in FBS.
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings dating to 1998.
Miami is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog under Manny Diaz (since 2019).
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-14, 51) vs Florida Gators, 3:30 ET
This would be the first time the AP No. 1 is favored by 14 or fewer points against an unranked opponent since September 7, 2015 when No. 1 Ohio State was a 14-point favorite against Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes won that game 42-24.
This will be the 44th meeting since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, but only the third time Georgia is a double-digit favorite.
Florida is 4-0-1 ATS against AP top-5 teams under Dan Mullen (since 2018).
Florida is 7-3 ATS following an outright loss under Mullen.
Georgia is 5-2 ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-20, 66.5), 3:30 ET on ABC
Oklahoma is 16-25 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Lincoln Riley (since 2017). The over is 25-15-1 in those games. Only three teams have been a double-digit favorite more often since 2017: Alabama (30-22 ATS), Clemson (28-22-1 ATS) and Ohio State (25-20-1 ATS).
The over is 6-1 in Texas Tech games under Matt Wells (since 2019) when facing a ranked opponent.
Nine of the last 10 meetings have gone over the total.
No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 18 Auburn Tigers (-3, 66), 7 ET on ESPN
Lane Kiffin is 1-7 ATS (2-6 outright) in his career in ranked-versus-ranked matchups. The only cover for Kiffin came in 2011 when his No. 18 USC Trojans were 15-point underdogs at No. 4 Oregon and won 38-35.
Bryan Harsin also hasn't fared well in ranked-versus-ranked matchups. Harsin is 2-5 ATS (2-5 outright) in his career in such games. Two of those have come with Auburn this season (0-2 ATS and outright).
Auburn has failed to cover five straight games against AP top-10 teams, the 3rd-longest active streak in FBS behind Michigan State (5) and Kent State (6).
Auburn has covered 14 of its last 20 as a favorite and 11 of its last 15 when favored at home.
Ole Miss is 3-9 ATS over the last five seasons when the line is between -3 and +3.
The under is 10-3 in Auburn games in conference play since the start of last season (2-1 this season under Harsin).
No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 47) at Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7 ET
Kentucky is 6-1 ATS this season, trailing only Syracuse (7-1 ATS) and UTSA (7-1 ATS) for the best cover percentage in FBS.
Kentucky is 0-4-1 ATS following a bye over the last five seasons (all under Mark Stoops).
The under is 26-13 in Kentucky road games under Stoops (since 2013).
Kentucky has covered six straight conference games, tied with Syracuse for the longest active streak in FBS.
The under has gone 12-6 in Mississippi State games under Mike Leach (since 2019).
AP top-15 teams favored by 3 or fewer points against unranked opponents are 30-12 ATS since 2010, including 11-4 ATS over the last five seasons and 3-0 ATS this season.
No. 19 SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-1, 62.5), 7 ET on ESPN2
Houston is 0-3 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 under Dana Holgorsen (since 2019).
SMU is 9-5 ATS as an underdog under Sonny Dykes (since 2018).
Houston has lost eight straight outright (3-5 ATS) against ranked opponents dating to 2019 (all under Holgorsen).
No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5, 60), 7:30 ET on ABC
This would be the sixth time Penn State has gotten more than 17 points since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. Five of six have come against Ohio State (2013 at Wisconsin was the other). The Nittany Lions do have two outright wins in the previous five instances (2016 against Ohio State and the 2013 game at Wisconsin).
Penn State is 4-21-1 ATS following a loss under James Franklin (since 2014), the worst such cover percentage in FBS over that span. The Nittany Lions have lost 2 straight overall (at No. 3 Iowa and against Illinois).
Ohio State has covered four straight after starting the season 0-2-1 ATS.
Penn State is 5-2 ATS under Franklin when facing Ohio State.
The over is 17-7-3 in Penn State games under Franklin against ranked opponents.
Ohio State is 16-9-1 ATS as a favorite since Ryan Day's first full season at the helm in 2019, but the Buckeyes are just 5-7 ATS against ranked opponents over that span (regardless of favorite/underdog status).