The holiday season for the NFL tends to be a time for games to go under. In the previous five seasons, games in the final four weeks of the season went under at a 59% rate (however, last week overs went 10-6).
Moving ahead to Week 16, some of the top gambling storylines include Miami potentially being a first-time favorite, Atlanta's struggles in nonconference games, and Kirk Cousins' struggles on Monday Night Football.
Houston Texans (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
• Eleven of Tampa Bay's past 12 games have gone over the total. The over is 11-3 in Tampa Bay games this season, the best mark in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay has won four straight games, going 3-0-1 ATS. Prior to this stretch, it had failed to cover in six straight games.
• Houston is 5-2 ATS on the road this season, but this is the first time it has been a road favorite. Bill O'Brien is 5-2-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career (7-1 outright).
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5), Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
• The current over/under of 37 matches the lowest in any game this season, New England hasn't played a game with a total in the 30s since 2010, and Tom Brady hasn't played in a game with a total as low as 37 since 2006.
• The under is 11-3 in Buffalo games this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the best under mark in the NFL.
• Tom Brady is 31-3 SU in his career against Buffalo, including eight straight wins (20-12-2 ATS).
• New England is 1-5 ATS against teams that entered over .500 this season, and it is 0-4 ATS against teams that currently have at least nine wins this season.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• This matches the most points Los Angeles has been an underdog under Sean McVay, and it is the most points it has been an underdog in a game with McVay as coach and Jared Goff starting at quarterback. McVay is 1-4 ATS as an underdog of at least two points.
• Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS after an ATS loss this season and 4-1 ATS after an outright loss.
• San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in division games in the past two seasons (1-2-1 ATS this season).
• Six of San Francisco's past seven games have gone over the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• Over the past five seasons, Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as an underdog of at least seven points (including playoffs), including an outright win last week in Oakland. Meanwhile, since 2012, Atlanta is 3-13 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points.
• Atlanta has failed to cover 14 straight games against AFC opponents, including playoffs (1-13 outright).
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• New Orleans has won and covered five straight road games. Over the past two seasons, New Orleans is 10-3 ATS on the road.
• Tennessee is 4-2 outright as a home underdog under Mike Vrabel.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• New York is 11-3 ATS in its past 14 road games (10-2 as an underdog).
• Washington has lost eight straight divisional games, going 1-7 ATS in that span.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• All four Devlin Hodges starts have gone under the total. Overall, six straight Pittsburgh games have gone under the total, with none of those games combining for more than 40 points. The under is 11-3 in Pittsburgh games this season, tied with Buffalo for the best under mark in the NFL.
• Sam Darnold is 1-8 outright and ATS in his career in conference games.
• New York is 3-0 outright as an underdog of four or fewer points this season.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (PK), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• If Miami closes as a favorite, it would be the first time it has been favored this season. The Dolphins had been the only team to be an underdog in every game this season. Brian Flores is the second coach to begin his career in the past 10 years to be an underdog in his first 14 career games (Gus Bradley was an underdog in his first 30 games).
• Cincinnati has lost 12 straight road games outright, but it is 8-4 ATS in those games. Nine of the 12 game went under the total.
• In the past 10 seasons, when two teams with at least 10 losses entering the game square off, the favorite is 9-2 ATS and 10-1 outright.
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• Will Grier is making his first career start. Quarterbacks making their first career starts are 9-2 ATS this season.
• Carolina has lost six straight games (1-4-1 ATS). Eight of the past 10 Carolina games have gone over the total, including each of the past four.
• Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 outright as a favorite of more than a field goal this season. It has failed to cover six of the past seven times in that spot dating back to last season. Last time it was in this spot, it lost outright as an 11-point favorite against Miami in Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• Cleveland is the second team in the Super Bowl era to be a double-digit home underdog to a team it beat by at least 14 points earlier in the season. The other time was in 1988 when Green Bay upset Minnesota, 34-14, in Week 7, then won the Week 15 rematch, 18-6, as a 10.5-point home underdog.
• Baltimore has won 10 straight games outright and has covered seven of its past eight games. The last time Baltimore lost was Week 4 against Cleveland.
• Baltimore is 35-0 all-time outright as a double-digit favorite, the only franchise to never lose in that situation.
• This snaps a streak of seven straight games in which the Browns were favored. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS this season as an underdog.
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7), Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• This is the third time Denver has been a favorite of at least seven points since Peyton Manning retired (last time was in 2017).
• Detroit is 1-8 ATS in its past nine games and it has lost seven straight games outright.
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• Oakland has failed to cover in five straight games, losing the past four outright.
• Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS and SU in division games this season, despite being favored in three of those games.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• The Eagles are a home underdog to the Cowboys. Philadelphia is 0-2 this season at home as an underdog this season (Seattle, New England) and 0-4 outright as a home underdog against Dallas since upsetting the Cowboys in 1999 as a 10-point 'dog. Doug Pederson was Philadelphia's starting quarterback in that game.
• Dallas is 4-0 ATS in division games this season and has covered eight straight division games dating back to last season.
• Dallas has won and covered each of the past four meetings.
• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its past five games, with the only cover coming last week when it needed to score two touchdowns in the final 26 seconds to cover against Washington.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Seattle is currently a 9.5-point favorite, but it has only won one game this season by more than eight points. However, that lone double-digit win came in its Week 4 meeting against Arizona, winning 27-10 as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Arizona is 8-2-1 ATS this season as an underdog of at least three points.
• Arizona has covered each of the past four meetings in Seattle.
• In the past two seasons, Seattle has played four games with the total in the 50s. Each time, Seattle covered and the game went over the total.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Over the past three seasons, Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog with four outright wins.
• Mitchell Trubisky is 7-2 ATS in his career in prime-time games.
• Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• Since joining Minnesota, Kirk Cousins is 13-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home.
• Cousins is 0-8 outright and ATS on Monday Night Football, but Minnesota's Monday struggles predate Cousins. Since 2009, Minnesota is 2-11 ATS on Monday games. Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in Monday games since 2012.
• This is the most points Aaron Rodgers has ever been an underdog to the Vikings. Minnesota has covered six of the past eight home meetings.
• Green Bay is 6-1 ATS and outright against teams that entered with a winning record this season.