We've reached Week 16 of the NFL season, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and general editor Ben Fawkes, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's NFL slate.
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Clay 2-0 (23-11 on season)
Youmans 0-4 (27-26-2)
Fortenbaugh 0-5 (30-29-1)
Kezirian 2-0 (17-20-1)
Bearman 0-3 (15-19-1)
Johnson 2-1 (20-25-1)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
Saturday's 1 p.m. game
Houston Texans (-3, 49.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bearman: The Bucs have quietly won four in a row behind an explosive offense that has scored 28 or more points in each game during the winning streak and in six of the past seven. I'm tempted to take the points at home, but Houston is playing for a division title, so the total seems like a safer play. The Bucs have been an over machine, hitting it 11 of the past 12 games, and they did their part in the one under game, scoring 25 first-half points, but Jacksonville, is, well, Jacksonville. Win, lose, cover or not, one constant has been scoring and allowing others to score. Since the over-the-total run began in Week 3, all but that Jags game have hit 50 points, and most haven't been close. Tampa Bay's games are hitting the over by 14.5 points (with an average total of 63 per game), making the sub-50 total surprising. It's not as though the Texans' games are in the low 40s, either, as four of the past five and eight of the past 10 have seen at least 45 total points. Even without wide receiver Chris Godwin suiting up for the Bucs, quarterback Jameis Winston is good for four or five total touchdowns (for both teams), so take the over and root for points.
Saturday's 4:30 p.m. game
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5, 37.5)
Fortenbaugh: The 37.5 total seems low until you realize: Seven of Buffalo's 14 games this season have produced 35 or fewer points. The first meeting between these two teams saw New England win 16-10. Both teams rank in the top three in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense and opponent yards per play.
Further, New England ranks first in the NFL in opposing quarterback completion percentage (56%), and Buffalo ranks ninth (61.8%). So don't be shocked if signal-callers Tom Brady (60.1%, 29th in NFL) and Josh Allen (59.3%, 31st) struggle to move their offenses up and down the field with any sort of consistency Saturday.
Pick: Under 37.5
Bearman: Nothing in my DNA or past betting habits points to betting against the Patriots in this spot. History has taught us that when it comes down to it, Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots step up, everyone else doesn't and we ask ourselves why we thought it would go the other way. The Bills sit one game back and have a shot at the AFC East, so it's Patriots time. However ... have you watched this season's Patriots? It's not just one or two weeks of struggling to score, but many games of it. Much has been made of the 8-0 start coming against very weak opponents. Since then, the reigning champs are 2-4 ATS, averaging a mere 20 points per game -- and that includes 34 last weekend against the 1-13 Bengals (21 of which were in the second half, aided by a defensive touchdown). In the first matchup back in Week 4, the Patriots jumped out to a 13-0 lead on a blocked punt and held on for a 16-10 victory. In an early sign of offensive troubles, the Pats were held to 224 total yards and scored all 16 points off Bills miscues. Allen was knocked out late in the game, putting an end to the comeback. Buffalo is a league-best 9-4-1 against the number and has the defense to once again shut down the Patriots. If the Bills avoid mistakes, they will have a shot to win -- or Brady moves to 32-3 vs. Buffalo and the Pats move to 35-5 vs. the Bills since 2000 and we all ask ourselves, "Why did we think differently?"
Pick: Bills +6.5
Saturday's 8:15 p.m. game
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)
Kezirian: I see the Niners as one of the NFL's best teams and the Rams missing the playoffs, although they do have a slim mathematical chance. San Francisco lost a tough one last weekend to Atlanta, and the 49ers are not about to overlook this opponent and squander an opportunity to solidify their seeding ahead of the Week 17 showdown in Seattle. Given their inconsistency this season, the Rams obviously have huge upside, so I will opt for the Niners in a teaser.
Pick: 49ers (-0.5) in a 6-point teaser with Falcons
Sunday's 1 p.m. games
Baltimore Ravens (-10, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
Fortenbaugh: Have you witnessed the body language emanating from Cleveland's sideline on a weekly basis? Have you noticed that every mention of the Browns in conversation usually relates to a potential firing (Freddie Kitchens), trade (Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry) or some other form of disgruntlement? At 6-8 and well below the threshold for what many predicted this season, the Browns have one eye toward vacation, which is a very dangerous place to be when no opponent in the business requires more attention to detail and preparation than the Ravens. Baltimore enters this matchup on 10 days of rest with a 10-game winning streak in which it has defeated the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game. The Ravens also rank sixth in the NFL in turnover differential and second in yards per play, while the Browns rank 22nd in turnover differential and 19th in opponent yards per play. Look for Baltimore to roll here so the team can rest everybody in Week 17.
Pick: Ravens -10
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 46)
Johnson: The angle that has hit at a 63% rate since 1990 is betting on teams in Weeks 16 and 17 that have already been eliminated from the playoffs when they are facing a team in a must-win scenario. The Panthers fit the bill. They took it to Seattle late in Week 15, storming back to cut their deficit to six despite Kyle Allen throwing three interceptions. This isn't a team that has mailed it in, and with Indianapolis' playoff hopes on the line, I think we are getting an inflated number now sitting +7.
My projection is Panthers +5.1, and the matchup with Christian McCaffrey and Carolina's third-ranked rushing offense (4.9 yards per carry) against a Colts defense that ranks bottom half in the NFL in just about every rushing metric is enticing. Quarterback Will Grier will get his first start -- he is definitely not Drew Brees -- but if we see the Colts sell out on the run again Sunday, Norv Turner will put Grier in spots to find success through the air as well (not to mention Grier has the ability to make plays with his legs). Brees completed 29 of his 30 pass attempts Monday night, setting an NFL single-game record for completion percentage. There are leaks in the Indianapolis secondary to be exploited, and I think the Panthers do enough to keep it within the seven points.
Pick: Panthers +7
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (PK, 46.5)
Bearman: The game we've all been waiting for all season. Well, at least the draftniks out there. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and the betting world agree it's a toss-up. The line is a pick 'em, and FPI has the Bengals with a 50.5% chance to win. Is it the biggest toss-up game of the season? No. Actually, the Chargers-Lions Week 2 game closed at a pick 'em and FPI had the Chargers at a 50.1% chance to win. The Lions moved to 2-0-1 (remember that?) with the 13-10 win, with Philip Rivers throwing a pick in the end zone, and the game was as close as predicted. I had a front-row seat (well, Row 22) to how not deep and not talented the Dolphins were last weekend in getting run out of New Jersey by Eli Manning and the Giants. After wasting opportunities in the first half (repeat of the Jets game the week before), Miami was outgained 260-150 in the second half and Ryan Fitzpatrick was continually hit when the Giants started blitzing. No one is going to fool you into thinking the Bengals are any better -- they are 1-13 for a reason. But they have more talent at key positions (RB, lines) and can win the game and still get the top pick (by losing Week 17). In addition, the Bengals have the best special teams in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. In a true toss-up game, that can be the difference. In the past five games, the Bengals have lost by single digits three times, won one and were down three at the half to the Patriots before a pick-six and multiple turnovers that a 1-13 team makes cost them the cover.
Pick: Bengals PK
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 46)
Kezirian: I am not putting a lot of stock in Jacksonville's victory at Oakland. Not only did the Jaguars benefit from an egregious officiating mistake that the league office later confirmed, but the Raiders statistically dominated the game. In many ways it was a fluke win. In my eyes, this is still the same Jags team that had lost five straight by at least 17 points. It's also a tough travel spot for a team that has not shown much grit over the past month. On the flip side, the Falcons are playing hard to close the season. They've won consecutive games, including last weekend's impressive upset at San Francisco, and also have covered five of their past seven. I expected a lopsided victory by the home team.
Pick: Falcons -7 and Falcons (-1) in a 6-point teaser with 49ers
New Orleans Saints (-3, 50.5) at Tennessee Titans
Kezirian: Last weekend's loss to Houston snapped a streak of seven consecutive Tennessee games going over the total. That run began with Ryan Tannehill replacing Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback. Houston did some things well defensively, but I am still going to continue riding this out. The Texans and Titans combined for three interceptions around the goal line and a blocked field goal, and the game fell one score below the total. Obviously every game is its own situation, but those fluke plays instill confidence. Couple that with a New Orleans offense that has scored at least 26 points in five straight games, and I am more than comfortable taking over a high number like 50.5.
Pick: Over 50.5
Youmans: This could be a bit of a flat spot for the Saints, who followed the shootout loss to the 49ers by crushing the Colts on Monday night. It was a Drew Brees lovefest in prime time, as he completed 29 of 30 passes with four touchdowns and set more records. The Indianapolis game plan on both sides of the ball reeked of clueless incompetence. Tennessee's defense will make things tougher on Brees, who has 21 touchdown passes on the season but only four away from home. New Orleans is chasing one of the NFC's top two seeds, but the Titans, off a costly loss to the Texans, are still in contention for a playoff spot. The Saints' defense will get a stress test from running back Derrick Henry and Tannehill, who's 6-2 as the starter and leads the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). It's important to note that the New Orleans defense is without end Marcus Davenport and tackle Sheldon Rankins (both on injured reserve), and this is the type of game where their absences will be noticed. Henry has topped 100 yards in four of the past five games. The home 'dog looks live in this spot. The Saints hit the road on a short week and seem unlikely to duplicate their peak performance from Monday.
Pick: Titans +3
Fortenbaugh: New Orleans is operating on a short week after an emotional Monday Night Football win over the Colts in which Brees became the NFL's all-time leader in touchdown passes. To make matters even more comfortable for the 2009 champs, the Saints have already locked up the NFC South crown, so their third consecutive trip to the postseason is nice and secure. Enter the Titans, who are fighting for their playoff lives after last Sunday's 24-21 home loss to the Texans. Last weekend was an excellent spot to fade the Titans, but this week offers up a tremendous opportunity to back them, given the market overreaction taking place courtesy of the Saints' blowout win coupled with the Titans' upset loss. Look for Tennessee's eighth-ranked rushing offense to set the tone, as New Orleans has permitted an average of 28.2 points per game this season in four contests against other teams that rank in the top eight in rushing.
Pick: Titans +3
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 42)
Johnson: There are still plenty of 41s in the market, and my perceived edge on the game decreases at 42 (projected 44.3), but it's still a worthwhile consideration with the injuries piling up in the Washington secondary. Four different safeties and cornerbacks may miss Sunday's game for the Redskins, and whether you are pro-Eli Manning or not, he's facing a defense that ranks bottom-half of the league anyway against the pass.
On the offensive side for Washington, we get an improving Dwayne Haskins against a Giants defense that ranks 25th defensively in DVOA. The weather isn't expected to be a factor at all, and I anticipate we see some carefree and aggressive play from two teams not ultimately playing for a division race or playoff berth the remainder of the season.
Pick: Over 42
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5) at New York Jets
Bearman: Remember that feel-good three-game winning and cover streak for the Jets that had everyone saying coach Adam Gase has things figured out? I don't, either. It was against the Giants, Redskins and Raiders. Since then, New Jersey's green team has gotten blown out by the Bengals (let that sink in) and Ravens and survived a horrible game in Miami, where the Dolphins settled for seven field goals. Of the Jets' five victories, none has come against a team with a winning record. And they've managed losses to Cincy and Miami for those teams' first wins of the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers currently control their own destiny and don't want to head to Baltimore next weekend in a must-win scenario. It wasn't pretty last weekend vs. Buffalo, but the Bills can do that to teams. Before that, Pittsburgh had won seven of eight and was 5-2-1 vs. the number. The Steelers have feasted on sub-.500 teams this season, going 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS. I don't expect them to go far in January (they are 0-5 vs. current playoff teams), but they should run the Jets out of their own building.
Pick: Steelers -3
Johnson: The Jets at +3.5 is the buy point for me in this one, and the market is trending that direction with 3.5s or +3s at plus-money available. There isn't much to this play outside my projection that this is a winning proposition 55.4% of the time. I generally dig in and find reasons that I think discrepancies exist, but outside the fact the Steelers are in a semi-must-win spot (they can still make the playoffs with a loss, though), the midweek move and valuation of Pittsburgh is head-scratching.
I don't mind backing the best run defense in the NFL at home -- let's put the ball in Hodges' hands, please -- getting the hook now on the most key number in the sport.
Pick: Jets +3.5
Sunday's 4 p.m. games
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7, 38.5)
Youmans: The good news for the Lions (1-10 SU in their past 11 games) is their season is almost over. The bad news is coach Matt Patricia is returning next season. The Broncos no-showed in the snow at Kansas City in Week 15, but they were 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in the previous nine games. This has the feel of a preseason game with a pair of rookie quarterbacks, so throw out the statistical analysis and bet on a Denver defense showing a pulse. Caesars opened this line at 6, and sharp money pushed it to 7. The number is high, and the only way I could bet this is to tease it down to 1.
Pick: Broncos (-1) in a 6-point teaser with Chargers
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 45.5)
Youmans: Sharp money frequently shows on the Chargers, and it's usually a fatal attraction to an underachieving team and a fading quarterback. Philip Rivers talks too much trash for a 38-year-old whose season is littered with turnovers (18 interceptions, including 12 in the past five games). Still, sharp money is backing Los Angeles again this weekend. This is likely to be Rivers' final home game as the franchise's starting quarterback, so the Chargers at least have that small motivational factor in their favor. The Raiders are reeling from four consecutive losses and just blew a fourth-quarter lead to the slumping Jaguars to drop their final game in Oakland. To make matters worse, rookie running back Josh Jacobs and right tackle Trent Brown are out. The Rivers roller coaster is up one week, down the next, and should be on the rise this weekend against one of the league's worst pass defenses. But with the Chargers' 1-4-1 ATS mark at home, laying seven points is playing with fire, so try a six-point teaser play instead.
Pick: Chargers (-1) in a 6-point teaser with Broncos
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 50)
Youmans: Seattle has not been a double-digit favorite all season for a reason. The Seahawks (11-3 SU) have won 10 one-score games, and their lone comfortable victory came in a 27-10 decision at Arizona in late September. But the Cardinals, who took the 49ers to the wire twice, are showing positive signs. The Arizona offense totaled 445 yards and averaged 7.4 yards per play against Cleveland in Week 15 when Kenyan Drake rushed for 137 yards. The Seattle defense has been inconsistent and could be in better health with linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Quandre Diggs attempting to recover from ankle injuries. The Seahawks have a bigger game on deck in Week 17 when they host the 49ers in a high-stakes NFC West showdown. Seattle's point differential (plus-26) shows its season-long trend of winning close games. This still would be a play at +9.5, but wait to see if the public bets the line to 10 by Sunday.
Pick: Cardinals +9.5
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 46) at Philadelphia Eagles
Fortenbaugh: As a born-and-bred Eagles fan, it kills me to make this pick, but I can't possibly get behind the consistently sloppy and substandard product the Birds have put on the field over the past five weeks. Philly is 4-3 straight up and 2-5 against the spread at Lincoln Financial Field this season, with victories over the Redskins, Jets and Bears -- not to mention an embarrassing performance that required overtime to get past the Giants -- and losses to the Lions, Patriots and Seahawks. The wide receiver unit is depleted, quarterback Carson Wentz has been running for his life and the franchise ranks 22nd in turnover differential. The Cowboys are certainly no prize pig, but Dallas ranks first in the NFL in yards per play and is a vastly more talented team than the Giants and Redskins, both of whom took the Eagles down to the wire over the past two games. At the very least, call this bet an emotional hedge.
Pick: Cowboys -1.5
Fawkes: For me, this one boils down to injuries. Eagles star right tackle Lane Johnson will miss the game, and you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of NFL fans outside of Philadelphia who can name the team's starting wideouts right now. Wentz has been terrific down the stretch the past two games, but the other side of the coin is that the Eagles struggled mightily to beat the Giants and Redskins. Dallas has the NFL's No. 2 offense by Football Outsiders' DVOA, far more weapons than Philadelphia and has to be feeling good coming off a 44-21 thrashing of the Rams that wasn't as close as the final score.
The Eagles have lost four out of five against the number, and the one win was last weekend's miracle cover at Washington. Plus, I must be on to something if even Fortenbaugh is picking against his own team.
Pick: Cowboys -1.5
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. game
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 45) at Chicago Bears
Fortenbaugh: In an ending fit for a miserable season that has been rife with disappointment from the opening bell, the Bears saw their playoff hopes dashed last Sunday by none other than Aaron Rodgers, who is now 19-5 lifetime against his archrivals. Since Oct. 1, the Bears own four wins over three teams that are a combined 13-28-1, not to mention losses to less-than-impressive foes in the Raiders, Chargers and Eagles. My guess is that after a postseason appearance in 2018, a preseason complete with Super Bowl aspirations and a bust of a regular-season campaign that included lengthy discussions about the job security of the general manager, coach and quarterback, the Bears are about ready to pack it in.
That's some dangerous headspace to keep with a Chiefs freight train coming to town that has won four consecutive games by an average of 16.2 points per contest, with each victory coming by seven or more points. Further, Kansas City's defense is surrendering an average of just 11.2 points per game during that aforementioned winning streak. Andy Reid's crew is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road this season with a plus-71 scoring differential and an upset victory in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on the résumé. I'll lay less than a touchdown all day here.
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Clay: Allen Robinson has reached 69 yards in eight of his 14 games this season. Some of the games in which he's fallen short have included tough matchups against defenses that have been good against perimeter and/or No. 1 wide receivers, including the Cowboys, Rams, Chargers, Redskins and Broncos. That's notable this weekend with the Chiefs on the slate. Believe it or not, Kansas City has allowed a league-low 132 receptions to wide receivers this season. The Chiefs have also allowed the fourth-fewest targets and receiving yards to the position, as well as the sixth-lowest yards per target (7.5) and second-lowest catch rate (57%). Robinson is heavily targeted, but this figures to be a rare week in which he falls just short of his usual production.
Pick: Robinson under 68.5 receiving yards (-110)